NASDAQ is about to break into long-term bullish territory again.Basically this is a quick update to my January 31 analysis on NDX where I made a case for the importance of this Channel Down:
Initially the price got rejected near the top (Lower Highs) trend-line of the Channel Down but since yesterday, it is staging a comeback. As mentioned before, a break above it, will most likely restore the long-term bullish trend on Nasdaq and will aim for new All Time Highs (potentially near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension long-term).
The finding of the current idea though, is that the current Channel Down resembles that of the previous correction during September 06 - October 13 2021. For a better illustration, see that Channel below on the 12H time-frame, where th MA50 and the MA200 trend-lines are similar to those of the current Channel Down on the 1D time-frame:
Breaking above the 1D MA50 this time, most likely confirms the above.
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Nasdaqsignals
Buy NasdaqLooking at the bigger timeframes (TF) Nasdaq looks like it broke the downtrend starting the movement to the upside.
Confluences:
1- MACD giving buys signals
2- Moving averages about to cross to the up side (4H)
3- Price is currently at 0.38 fib level (daily) which for me indicates the end of retracement.
Nas100: Important levels to watchTraders, looking at the current market structures, I have marketed important levels that I will be waiting for Nas100 to take direction. Currently Nas100 is trading at around 14700.00 indecisively, a successful break above 14840.00 will attract buyers and we can expect price to be pushed to 15250.00. However, if it breaks below 14400.00 successfully, we can only expect price retesting the 14000.00.
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Nasdaq100- New leg down?In my previous Nas100 analysis I said that I work with 3 bearish scenarios in Nasdaq's case, and the last scenario proved to be the correct one so far, with the index reversing from 15k zone resistance.
At this moment, the index is trading just above 14.400-14.500 zone support and I expect continuation to the downside.
In my opinion rallies around 15k should be sold and only the index above 15.500 would put a pause in this bearish scenario.
Bears can target 12.500, keeping in mind the last low as support also.
Best regards!
Mihai Iacob
Nasdaq100- Bulls should be careful from now onThere has been a very bad start of the year for Nasdaq (and US indices in general) with the price dropping almost 3000 points from top to bottom.
Last week the index found support and bids under 14k and now is in recovery.
In my opinion, this is just a correction and rallies above 15k should be considered good opportunities for selling.
A daily close above 16k would make me change my opinion
NASDAQ Channel Down emerged. Trade the rejection or break-out.Nasdaq has suffered the most during January's correction. The Lower Lows created a new Channel Down which we have to consider, despite having the 1D RSI make a rebound from oversold levels and a bottom formation similar to early October, mid-May and early March 2021.
The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is the first natural Resistance. If the price gets rejected at the top of the Channel Down (Lower Highs trend-line), we'll have a sell signal targeting the Lower Lows trend-line.
On the other hand, a break above the Channel Down along with closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), will be a confirmation that the index has recovered the long-term bullish trend and will be a buy signal towards the Higher Highs trend-line with a rough technical target the 4.0 Fibonacci extension at 17515.
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Nasdaq 100: Investors buying the dipAfter the biggest correction since March 2020, investors are buying the dip on the main indices. Nasdaq 100 is the best US index in terms of long-term performance and drawdown. We are in oversold territory in all the main indicators such as the RSI, MACD... We are not safe yet, and a bigger correction may occur. If we lose the support line of this week (13700), we will see another -15%. Care with volume during uncertain times with the Russian-Ukraine crisis and the upcoming interest rates hikes.
Nasdaq100 and my 3 bearish scenariosOf course, there is also the bullish, new ATH scenario, but this, in my opinion, is the less probable of them all.
So, after breaking under 15500 support, Nas100 fell strongly and reached my target at 14k (I went lower, but who counts). Now the index is in consolidation and loss digesting.
I consider 3 scenarios for down continuation:
1. Nasdaq will drop directly, without a retesting of FED day's high, and a break under 13500 low should accelerate losses towards the next important support at 12.5k
2. We will have a retest of the 14500 zone followed by the same drop to 12.5k
3. And this is less probable considering the selling pressure, Nasdaq will rise and test the broken support, now resistance, at 15500, of course, followed by the drop to 12500.
In conclusion, in my opinion, Nas100 will continue to the downside towards 12500
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
Nasdaq100- A pull back can happen- good opportunity for shortLast week, after breaking under important 15500 support, I said that I expect Nas100 to fall to the 14k zone.
The drop happened very quickly and even exceeded my target with a low of around 13.500.
Now the index is in a normal recovery and this can provide bears a good opportunity to enter the market.
My sell zone is 14.500-15k and only a daily close above 15k would put a pause in this scenario
The first target can be yesterday's low.
Best of luck in shorting Nasdaq:)!
Mihai Iacob
Nas100: The bears have had their daysPrevious idea:
Outcome:
Nas100 closed in green, Dow made a sunning come back. Stocks are picking up. The time for the promised land has arrived.
Nas100 got blocked at 78.60% Fibonacci level. If it crawl back there unless to mitigate some orders. My expectations are to see some consolidations around 14500 and 14800 before Nas100 skyrocket.
And where to from now? 18000.00 or beyond.
Hello friend, do your own analysis and please make wise decision. Plan your trade and trade your plan.
Good luck.
We love to Buy Nas100, we hate selling😂
Nas100:Completion of recent correction and we might see a bounceHello friends, we back again. My previous expectations on Nas100 didn't go as I expected, instead price continued to decline. I had to take a closer look at it once more and also going deeper into the history of the index.
Many times the index corrected itself deeply, that gave greater opportunity for investors and price rallied thereafter. Without surprise we saw the index bound up within a wedge formation from November 2021 and price had to swing up and down within the wedge.
So what I present here is merely an idea and this idea or perspective is mine alone. You making investment decision from this should spring from your own choices and decisions.
Looking back to recent history, we see that price corrected itself in January 2021 after a strong impulse (I), the correction wiped off at least 12.55% of the index gains.
In April 2021, we see another correction which wiped off 8.23% of the index gains.
In September 2021 the index corrected itself again wiping off 8.70% of it's gains.
Looking at the recent correction, we see that Nas100 dropped with at least - 10.28%.
Should we expect more decline?
Yes, No?
Please share with me your thoughts in the comment section below. Let's share ideas friends. Remember not to take mine as conclusion to invest.
I have a feeling, that we could see Nas100 bouncing up around 15000-15080 level and that this could be the last bottom for January 2022, seeing that it has nearly reached the 200MA.
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NASDAQ formed Higher Lows with the 1D MA50 being the key.Nasdaq futures formed a new Higher Low within the long-term Channel Up on Friday and today (due to the Martin Luther King holiday) is naturally consolidating. This is still a bottom formation signal, as the very same Higher Lows pattern (green arrow) was previously seen in early October. That was a bottom formation with the 1D CCI sequences of then and now being identical. The confirmation for a rally will come once the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks as it happened on October 18.
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Nas100: Buy the dipHey hey friends and family of Tradingview. Here we go again😁
From my previous analysis on Nas100 I said about it finding support around 15600 for the reason that it printed a pin-bar. I also stated that it would be very difficult for bears to run the race to the downside penetrating through and down the pin-bar. I understand that some are anticipating the move to the downside, and I know, I know, maybe they have some sell positions stack somewhere. Maybe not! Hahahaha, but for me I am still holding onto my bullish bias for various reasons. Please note that we cannot pin point every technical detail on the chart less you find my charts looking nasty and dirty. I am trying my best to pin point few technical details why I feel that Nas100 has found bottom and we could expect a bullish run:
To start, Nas100 is moving in a high timeframe ascending channel. The support of this channel was already reached, first it broke out of the support, it rose and again it came back to this support. Towards the market close on Friday we saw a bounce up from this support, yes again, for the second time. What do you think? Could this be a double bottom? If so then my hope of price reaching to 16400 or even 16500 is not something to doubt. But the question is, how are we going to reach 16400 when there is 16000 significant level ahead of us? If bulls successfully violate 16000 then it would be easy for them to take price higher, since 16000 will mark as a neckline of the double bottom. It is very possible that we could see price reaching 16000 very fast this week and for this reason: first take a look at the snapshot below on lower timeframe.
Inverse Head and Shoulders on Lower Timeframe:
What we see is a clear inverse head and shoulders pattern. I expect price to rise, since price closed above the neckline on Friday. If there is any retracement, I believe that is only to mitigate some positions for those still holding their positions below and we could see a strong impulse to the upside.
Pin-Bars around the demand zone (Daily Timeframe):
Have you any different thoughts and opinion? Feel free to share with me and everyone in the comment session below.
And hey, don't forget to be awesome. Please hit that like button so I know you appreciate my contribution to the Tradingview community.
Otherwise, have a great week ahead!
Nas100 could find support at 15600 and here is why!Nas100 might find strong support around 15600 and bounce up.
Hello traders, it shouldn't surprise us to see Nas100 falling with at least 1.7% during New York session today, as we know this is a volatile market. But here is my thought.
Last week we saw a strong move to the downside that eventually made a fake breakout through the diagonal support of the HTF ascending channel. Looking at a daily timeframe we could see buyers strength coming into play as they managed to push price up and a daily candle closed with a strong rejection, which printed a pin bar. Followed by a strong bullish candle on Tuesday, this was a strong sign that buyers could be present in the market. This is why I strongly believe that it would take a big battle for bears to successfully push price down below 15600 and this could be the level we can expect a strong impulse to the upside. As mentioned previously that bulls would be targeting 16400 level.
What are your thoughts? If you have any please be kind to share in the comment session below.
Nas100 will continue to rise and bulls target 16400Hello everyone and happy new year. It's always a joy to see another year and happy to be back to work again.
Here is just a quick outlook of Nas100. We can see that bulls are fully in control. After price made a fake break out on the support of the channel, bulls managed to push price back in. At this point we could see bulls continuing to dominate and send price to 16400 or beyond.
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NASDAQ RSI hit the long-term Buy ZoneNasdaq is giving a double long-term buy signal as besides the RSI on the 1D time-frame entering the Buy Zone that has been in effect since the March 2020 market crash, the price itself hit the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the November 2020 U.S. elections bottom. The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is right below as it was on all 3 major bottoms of 2021 (March 05, May 13, October 04).
We expect the Channel Up top again around 18000 (1.786 Fibonacci extension) by the end of March.
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Nasdaq Index - Bull or bear market more likely?I got a bit of criticism over not being clear enough in my previous chart. So i have created specifically a Nasdaq index chart which will show my thinking more clearly.
The Nasdaq index back at the start of 2000 was the bull market to end bull markets. The innovation of using the internet was a technological revolution and no one saw an end to the bull market...until it ended.
The end coincided with a break of medium term trendline as the internet startups folded one by one. From that point onwards the Nasdaq entered a brear market and didn't recover the old highs for another 15 years.
We're in a similiar position today, with the fed about to raise rates to control inflation, no one appears to think the impossible is possible.
It is.
If we break this medium term trendline, which appears to be very close to breaking (2 weekly closes below the line would confirm a break), we would expect a bear market to follow. This could take decades to recover from.
What goes up, must also come down (at least a bit).
The fact that the nasdaq market cap is more than half comprised of only 6 companies, suggests that it is just as sensitive to a large correction today. Albeit the reasons for a bear market will be very different.
Easy money has distorted the markets and funds like Arkk that think 40% annualised returns are possible with these stocks may be signs that we are at frenzy level of bullishness (just like in 2000).
I do not expect the bear market to be as bad as the beginning of the millenium, however i do think it will be signficiant and it could be coming sooner than expected, with fed tightening expected to quicken.
NASDAQ testing the 1D MA50. Buy opportunity.I haven't updated my NDX outlook since December 17 but so far it appears to be trading according to plan after accurately catching that bottom:
Today the index made contact with the 1D MA50 again (blue trend-line) and that's a pattern we've seen before twice within this multi-month Channel Up on the chart.
As you see, every time Nasdaq approaches the previous High (Fib 1.0) following a Channel Up bottom, the price pulls back to the 1D MA50 (orange circle) and then the rise continues all the way to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we treat this pull-back as a mid-term buy opportunity, especially for those who missed the December bottom. Our target is 17600.
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Nas100 bulls are challenged at 15570 levelNas100 has been very dramatic at the start of the festive season. (Hahaha). It is direction is quite unpredictable. But here is one thing we can take notice of: we see a HTF rising channel and for days bears have been trying their best to push price to the support of this channel, but to no avail. Nas100 is held around 15570.00, a level that seems to challenge the bulls. A complete violation of this level we can expect a spike down to the support of the channel. Taking short positions should really be taken with caution at this point, at least using trailing stop once positions are filled. As for my part, I will carefully monitor price once it has reached the support of the channel for potential long positions.
We therefore need to be very patient to wait for price to give us clear direction and opportunities to enter positions.
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