NAS100USD LongThe price has been forming a falling channel for the past few weeks.
I anticipate that the price might continue with the bullish run, touching the upper trend line of the channel.
My position will be at 11040, as I am using the pullback strategy to enter my positions hence it will be above the highest high formed.
My targets are 11180, 11320 and 11460 thus my target R:R is 1: 3.
Remember, risk only 1-2% of your account!
Nasdaqsignals
IXIC (NDX) Logarithmic Long Term Trend Line A long term trend line has been touched on the Nasdaq Composite
This has been seen as a point of great support extending all the way back to the 1980's
Price will likely bounce off this line and continue upwards
This is an addition to chart below, providing support
NASDAQ One last Low left on perfect symmetryNasdaq (NDX) is pulling-back following the Fed's +0.75% Rate Hike and a rejection on Tuesday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). With the help of the RSI on the 1D time-frame, we can see that so far the whole bearish sequence since the August 16 High, is very similar to the bearish sequence that followed after the March 30 High.
A striking similarity is that both got rejected on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level just under the 1D MA50. On June 03 that was the rejection that delivered the last sell-off before the mid-June - mid-August rally. That sell-off made its Low on the -0.118 Fibonacci extension. On the current Bearish Sequence, this extension is on 10105.
For illustration and better comparison purposes, I have plotted the first two Bearish Sequences od 2022 on top of the current (post August 16 High) and on the blue table all three together. The pattern is obvious.
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NASDAQ Bullish reversal confirmed as per previous 2022 reboundsJust a few days following our last analysis, the Nasdaq Index (NDX) broke above its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 26:
As mentioned then, the factor that made the difference in our decision to call for a buy was the RSI Bullish Divergence on the 1D time-frame which has been trading on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows (Channel Up) since October 03, while the actual price action has been on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (Channel Down).
The current rebound is consistent with the previous medium-term rebounds throughout the 2022 Bear Cycle, that started after the bottoms of February 24 and June 16. We can see the very same Channel Up on the 1D RSI during those bottoms. Both of those medium-term rebounds, broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and targeted the 1D MA200 (green trend-line), which has marginally hit on the March 29/30 High and approached on the August 16 High. Interestingly enough, the RSI Channel Up patterns broke to the upside around the time the price broke above the 4H MA200.
With the 4H MA200 broken, our short-term target is now the 1D MA50 and the medium-term 300 points below the 1D MA200. The projection from where we stand today, puts the 1D MA200 just above 12500 by mid November.
For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Nasdaq's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, we've plotted all rebound sequences on top of another (Black line = Feb 24 - March 30, Grey line = June 21 - August 16 and Yellow line = October 02 - today). It is obvious how closely correlated all three sequences are.
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NASDAQ This drop is limited. Medium-term targets around 12500.The Nasdaq Index (NDX) has been pulling-back since Tuesday's (Oct 18) Lower High and is once again on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). What can be the difference maker here is the RSI on the 1D time-frame which has been trading on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows (Channel Up) since October 03, while the actual price action has been on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (Channel Down). This is a technical Bullish Divergence, often seen on market bottoms (temporary or not).
Since the long-term trend throughout 2022 has been bearish (Bear Cycle), we have to consider this as a temporary bottom at least for now. Such bottoms have been on February 24 and June 16 so far. Interestingly enough, we can see the very same Channel Up on the 1D RSI during those bottoms. Also we can see that their duration with today's is fairly symmetrical. Those bottoms started medium-term rebounds, which broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and targeted the 1D MA200 (green trend-line), which has marginally hit on the March 29/30 High and approached on the August 16 High.
They trigger to start a bullish break-out has been the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and right now Nasdaq is trading below it. If it breaks, the short-term target should be the 1D MA50 and the medium-term the 1D MA200. The projection from where we stand today, puts the 1D MA200 just above 12500 by mid November.
For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Nasdaq's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, I've plotted both sequences on today's price action (black and grey lines).
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NASDAQ One last leg down or break above the 1D MA50?Nasdaq (NDX) is extending the Channel Down that started on the August 16 2022 High, making a Lower Low yesterday. With the assistance of the 1D RSI, we have spotted a recurring pattern that has already played out two times during this Bear Cycle since the start of the year and is currently forming the third one.
As you see, every such Lower Low sequence, made a bottom when the 1D RSI made a Low at the same level as the previous one. It is shown that the RSI has a somewhat triple bottom before the price rebounds. Right now the RSI is approaching the 30.000 level where the September 30 Low was made. The bottom of the previous Lower Low sequence was made on June 16 on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension from the March 15 Low. If each Low is a Fib level higher then the current one could be either on the -0.382, which is just below the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line) or the -0.236 (just above the 10000 mark). Either way, the buy signal is given when the RSI hits 30.000.
It is not unlikely though to see a rebound without dipping that low as the sequence is almost completed and we saw a bullish reaction yesterday to the CPI. So if the index breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) next, we can see a bullish extension towards the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line), which is the current Resistance as it has provided the last two rejection on August 16 and May 05.
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Nas 100 Correction (Official Bear Market)
The Nas100 is at an important cross road after the close of the monthly candle of September 2022. The manner in which the monthly candle has closed may indicated that the Nas100 just gone from bull
and now into an official bear market according to price behaviour. We can also see that price has created a change in market structure by means of a new low, which may signal the start of a bear market.
This type of price behaving was last seen in 2008 when the Nas100 went into a correction of about 40% before creating a market bottom. We expect that a similar type of correction is on the cards this time
around. Since are already in a correction we could see a further decline of between 20- 37% resulting in a total of between 43% - 57% decline since the peak formed in November 2021.
This is in line with the interest rate hikes currently taking place in the US and around the world, as central banks try to control the ever increasing inflation, which will lead to a slow down in economic
growth, a fall in company profits and result in job losses and a fall in consumer spending. The issues taking place in other part of the world such as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the covid19
lockdowns in China, one of the worlds largest economies is also not helping current global economic lock which puts further pressure on central banks to keep in hiking rates in the bid to bring down inflation.
US30 and NAS 100 top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Bearish NASDAQ (US100) to Continue in Longer TermBased on the upcoming fundamental news such as Non-farm Payroll (NFP) today and CPI news next week, I would think NQ would be bearish with higher probability to follow yellow path.
I am hoping i was wrong, but given the recent geo-political news such as OPEC+ is reducing the oil output, it will drive price of goods to continue to go up, giving more pressure for higher inflation, and fed will try to slow inflation down by increasing interest rates more if there were no strategic initiative by US government to relieve the concerning situation.
NASDAQ Testing the 1W MA200. Is it on the brink of collapse?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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This is the Nasdaq index (NDX) on the 1W time-frame, where it hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time since July 2010! Coupled with the 1W MACD just forming a Bearish Cross in the previous week, inevitably similarities emerge with the 2008 Housing Crisis.
And rightly so as until now, the 2022 correction has been very similar to October 2007 - July 2008. As you see after the index started falling initially, the price rebound at (or very close to in the case of 2022) the 1W MA200. The subsequent rebound, hit (or in the case of 2022 nearly hit) the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which in turn rejected the uptrend and turned the trend downwards again towards the 1W MA200.
It would appear that we are at this important level now where in July 2008 the 1W MA200 provided one last rebound before one final rejection on the 1W MA50 that on September 2008 broke below the 1W MA200 finally and caused a -42% collapse. Notice that the 1W Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200), though a bearish pattern, it was formed right at the bottom of the Cear Cycle. Both then and now the 1W RSI was trading under Lower Highs, which when broke, signalled the start of the recovery and the new Bull Cycle. Also the 1W MACD took a Bearish - Bullish - Bearish Cross sequence before the -42% collapse.
What this chart shows is that the emphasis should be on the current test of the 1W MA200. A trend-line tested three times since February 2010 and provided extremely strong Bull Phases, with COVID crash (March 2020) being the most recent. A break below it, could initiate a 2008 type collapse, with a -40% from current levels placing the target around the COVID March 2020 Low (6650). On the other hand, it shows that the 1W MA50 is the current Resistance and if broken first (after it failed this August), it could invalidate the extension of the Bear Market and save the day for stocks.
What do you think will happen next?
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NASDAQ Neutral so far. See which break-outs to trade.The Nasdaq Index (NDX) staged a fair rebound yesterday on a Lower Lows trend-line that started on the September 01 Low. Today we see an early rejection on the futures market, which from one side is expected as the market is preparing for Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision. The 4H RSI however has been on Higher Lows since August 22, staging a Bullish Divergence.
The last similar Divergence was spotted during the May 12 - 20 Lower Lows. When the index broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the second time, it targeted the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, our short-term plan is to wait for either that 4H MA50 break-out and target the 4H MA200 or the Lower Lows break-out and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). As a side-note, notice how the index has been trading on symmetrical Lower Highs as well (Aug 26 and Sep 13), thus we can view the price action as a Channel Down. The 4H MA200 (our bullish target) is exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of that Channel Down.
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NASDAQ Broke above the 1D MA50, targeting the 1D MA200 next!The Nasdaq Index (NDX) broke today (futures) above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and that was our condition that we set as requirement on our previous analysis in order to avoid a new sell-off:
With the 1D RSI on such a strong rise similar to those of June 16 and January 25, if the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 today, we expect at least a short-term rally targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been always hit since the start of the year on similar rebound sequences (Feb 01, March 29).
On the longer-term, the index needs a break above the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line) in order to enter into long-term Bullish Territory, as it was that line that rejected the August 16 High. On the other hand, we are willing to take a sell again only below the 11930 Support, in which case we will target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support.
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USTECH 100/NASDQ | Perspective for the week | Follow-up detailFollowing the strong sell that characterised this market in the last two weeks where we were able to scoop about 1,400 pips since my last publication on the index (see link below for reference purposes); we are currently at a critical point at around the $12,000 zone going into the new week. Are we going to be seeing buying potential during the coming week or a breakdown of the $12K zone will incite a plunge in the price of the index?
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NASDAQ 4H - Buy alert (HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE)NB|USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT
ENTRY PRICE:12500(BUY STOP)
STOPLOSS:12300
TAKE PROFIT:13200
NASDAQ has been bullish throughout the week it gives clarity for it to keep going higher as we have spotted a bullish divergence, the beautiful in the analysis showcases how powerful these patterns can be when patience is applied. Please note that not every set up will always work out as the market is forever changing. Let’s gear up for this bull run, yeah!?
NASDAQ Thinly supported. Needs a 1D MA50 break to avoid sell-offThe Nasdaq (NDX) index had a strong rejection these past 4 weeks exactly on the level we projected on our idea on August 04:
Right now it is trading below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which were its short-term Support levels and have now turned into Resistances as each have rejected upwards break-out attempts at least once.
Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and based on the RSI (1W time-frame), which just hit its MA line (yellow), NDX appears to be in a similar level its was during April 11 - 20. This consolidation led lower when its Support broke and dropped first to the previous Low (0.0 Fib) and then to Lower Lows on the -0.382 and -0.5 Fibs respectively. As a result, if the current Support breaks, we expect the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) to be tested, which is slightly above the 11040 Lot of June 16 and depending on the market conditions at the time (which we will surely update on), the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), which is slightly above the -0.382 Fib.
On the bullish case, if the price breaks above the 1D MA50, consider it a buy break-out signal and target the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
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Nasdaq to continue bearishAugust closed with a very strong bearish candle with price failing to break 12991 area a very strong area of resistance. The price is now continuing to move down to previous lows of 11391, where if broken will create a new lower low. Keep a eye out for my analysis on the lower timeframes.