It’s the Sound of Silence… NO The Sound of Bubbles BurstingIt has been an amazing 2020/21 in the markets, stimulus, free money, memes, crypto, NFTs, a 142% Nasdaq 100 rise from March 16, 2020, to Nov 29, 2021.
I have traded through 3 major crashes, 2000, 2007, 2020. I can now hear the gentle popping of bubbles through charts.
How? I have developed indicators and backtested systems with TradingView to tell me when they will happen.
My baby MOSES indicator is backtested to 1918. He gets it right the majority of the time for major crashes. Like all of us, he is not perfect, he was very late in the most volatile crash in history, the COVID crash of 2020.
It is very rare that Moses is late, he usually avoids about 60/70%% of a major crash. Right now Moses has stopped being bullish, he is very quiet.
He has just flagged a catastrophic 7% drop in one week. Moses is a “Donkey on the edge” (See Chart).
A 7% or greater drop in one week is rare, the Covid crash showed two 10% weekly drops.
Hello Darkness My Old Friend.
Step Back And Think. A 142% increase in the Nasdaq 100 in two years.
Inflation, supply chain, energy prices, commodities, ongoing pandemic.
Central banks need to increase rates, why? Because we are overheated. The crazy money flowing into Crypto and NFTs is 2000 DOT COM madness.
Like our place on this planet, we need to be sustainable. This market is not sustainable.
OK now on to the actual technical analysis.
Technical Analysis Notes
A master trader once gave me this advice.
Plot a green 50 moving average, an amber 100 moving average, and a red 200 moving average.
It's like traffic lights, a price above green buy . Below green, close to amber, be cautious . Below amber close to red, put the brakes on .
See the chart
On a weekly chart we are below the green 50 week moving average.
On a daily chart, we are below the red 200 day moving average.
RSI is negatively divergence since November 2021
ADR is negative since August 2021
Crash Detection
The green Moses dots at the bottom of the chart show a raging bull market.
No dot signal market transition
Red dot shows major bear market.
Nothing in life is 100% and the market may turn if Darth Powell, spooked by this mini-crash, announces no interest rate increases for another year. I would give this prediction a 75% chance.
But until then, buckle up for a wild ride down.
Kind regards – Liberated Stock Trader – Barry – Bazza to my mates.
If you like – like. Want more – follow
This is not financial advice, it is a hypothesis based on fundamental and technical analysis.
I exited the market in November, and was also bearish in December, see attached charts.
Nasdaq100
NASDAQ ANALYSISPossible set up ideas. price is playing around a demand area . if broken will take shorts
NASDAQ TRADE IDEA - A BREAK?Crown Club managed to maximise the sell off yesterday on the Head of the head and shoulders pattern.
The market has been crazy moving sideways - the volatility is mainly caused from earnings and the wait of what the FED will do at the next FOMC meeting in May - remember that all the evidence we can gather now on where interest will be in the next FOMC meeting will influence the markets.
'Fed’s Bostic sees one more quarter-point rate hike, then a hold ‘for quite some time' - As a member of the FED, this statement from CNBC could potentially lead markets further down and with earnings out now we could see a potentially good window for investors and firms to grab profits while stocks are "doing good" - majority of retail traders would follow direction of the market and news, what do I mean by this?
If APPL does good with earnings you would expect price to go through a bull run, all though this is still a possibility I see this as an opportunity for BIG investors to cash in profits - hence the recent volatility and consolidation.
Be prepared for a lot of fake out and sl sweeps this week.
NAS100 top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Nasdaq 100 showing HUGE upside with its Cup and Handle to 16,073Cup and Handle formed over the last couple of months.
A big one for that matter.
The price broke out of the brim level, but the price action has been very sloppy.
There is clearly a fight between the bulls and bears.
And so, that's why there's been a consolidation.
We can wait for the price to break above the small rectangle formation, before getting in to avoid a fakeout.
7>21>200
RSI>50 (Higher lows)
Target 16,073
SMC
Sell Side Liquidity (Order Block) is below the handle of the cup. Also the 200MA is around these levels which makes it another STRONG Level of liquidity for SM to buy.
The bias is very bullish, we just need the next push up.
Nasdaq Analysis Hello,
From yesterday's analysis you can see the price done as I expected. The prices has broken out the wedge I drew yesterday but we are still in the consolidation box. Now the price may come back retest the wedge and continue going up or this could be a fake break push price back down to the lows of the consolidation and then breaking down.
For Bulls: 13306- 13516
For Bears: 12813- 12417
I will be looking very closely for the bull run and even if we push down il still be looking for bull entries. As the market is still very bullish!!
Nasdaq -> This Is The SetupHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that nas100 just recently perfectly broke above, retested and already rejected a quite obvious weekly structure area exactly at the HKEX:12 ,000 area.
You can also see that we are approaching another weekly resistance area at the HKEX:13 ,200 level, you can also see that nas100 just had a pump of about 15% towards the upside over the past couple of weeks, so I simply do expect a short term correction back to the HKEX:12 ,800 area and then a next impulse towards the upside from there.
On the daily timeframe you can see that nas100 has been trading in a range over the past couple of days, I am also now just waiting for a deep retest of the next daily support zone at the HKEX:12 ,800 area and then there is a very high chance that we will also see more daily continuation towards the upside from there.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Nasdaq Weekly TF Analysis Hello,
I will start this weeks analysis with the weekly so we can see what has be going on with Nasdaq. To begin, let's take a moment to appreciate the positive changes in the market. In the beginning of the year, the Nasdaq broke from a downtrend, resulting in a change of direction for the market. This is a great sign for investors, and it's important to capitalise on this momentum while it lasts.
From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq appears to be in a strong uptrend, with no significant signs of weakness or reversal at the moment. This is a great opportunity for long-term traders to consider buying at low prices. It's important to keep in mind that Nasdaq follows trends religiously, so it's essential to stay focused on the trend and not diverge from it. As we move forward, let's keep our eyes on the trends and make wise investment decisions.
In my next post, I will provide an analysis of the lower timeframe to give us a better understanding of what the market is doing right now. I look forward to sharing more insights with you.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 17 WEEK
CME_MINI:NQ1!
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 17 WEEK
12950 was supporting the market well despite increase
in distribution effort. Market participation was low though, and
shortening of thrust from high to high observed = waning
upward momentum.
Possible scenarios:
1) Market stuck in a 250pt range, wait till supply/demand is
resolved
Then:
2) Breakout of upper boundary to test 13740
= long at support of upper boundary of range
3) Breakdown of lower boundary of range
= Short on rejection of 12950
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Ave vol narrow spread up bar close off high
= Minor weakness
Daily: Higher vol narrow spread down bar close away from low
= minor demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14361 13740 13550 - 137440
12950 10710 - 11068
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NKLA 100% SHORT CONFIRMATION!Please don't enter now, this is going to 45- 50 and may be to 25 cents depending on the company offering! cents area! there is not even 10% upside right now.
Toooooo high risk to enter.. Again this is one of the most volatile.. so don't enter right now. MACD/RSI in the worst position, recovery will take months!!
at least another 5-6 months.. Wait for the indicators to cool down and for a base for the liquidation and wait for the news and then enter..
this is a falling knife!
Lazyluchi Trades Nasdaq100 EP 18Nq is currently in a range. Been a back n’ forth week. Today, I have STOP orders placed at newly created Hhs and Hls because something I’ve learnt this month is, she can change her structures at anytime. Reason for my stop orders. There was a gap that needed filling yesterday and I can’t tell if that’s why the BULLS showed up yesterday. I guess I’ll have to wait and see where she’s headed today. Stay safe and enjoy your weekend.
NASDAQ TRADE IDEA + PPI%Hi everyone,
So here is my analysis for NASDAQ today - as we can see yesterday the CPI% was released and the stats were:Actual: Actual: 0.1% - Expected: 0.2% - Previous: 0.4% - natrually you would say stocks would have a positive reaction to this data, correct? Well indeed it did when the stats were released but it instantly reversed and market closed down lower than expected. I call this move a BULL TRAP - All though there was positive news, based off what the FED has to do to battle inflation as well as talks of a potential recession in the U.S.A. gave reasoning why investors would focus on shorting the market.
Same thing today for PPI - I expect a fake breakout up and then a reverse down taking stocks into last weeks range. Nice potential swing trade setup if we get into a good entry.
Be cautious today as there is a lot happening - apply proper risk management and don't see this opportunity as a winning lottery ticket, see it as an opportunity to compound on your current wins to grow into an even more profitable trader.
Lazyluchi Trades Nasdaq100 EP 17Fomc minutes today in the NQ and yet again another crazy day. The structures this week have been a total mess due to events. The bears look promising but it’s weird seeing that they failed at breaking HLs several times. We are kinda in a loop here. Bearish structures but..
Nasdaq Breakdown Analysis 12/04/2023Dear traders Nasdaq was so crazy today it tried to escape from any zone so I expect Nasdaq if he breaks above 13023 and close bullish you should look for buy and if he breaks below 12955 and close bearish you should look for sell we should all be careful tomorrow we have billon cpi and. Fed so don’t go crazy
Take the good chance and good luck
NASDAQNASDAQ- In Weekly time frame we can see it is like forming inverted H&S pattern. So we can expected a up move soon it the H&S pattern is formed.
Need to wait and see for the pattern Formation. If the pattern is formed then the 1st target will be near the 1st resistance 70.
Disclaimer: Only for learning purpose and not a trading recommendation. Do your own research
NASDAQ LONG I took a long on Nasdaq100 at the current price and I am expecting the market to buy off today. I will break even my order at 13100 to have a risk free trade for the day.
If you take the buy with me please use proper risk management and risk no more than 20% of your account.
TAKE PROFIT AROUND: 13200
STOP LOSS AROUND: 13000
Potential bull flag on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX)The Nasdaq is holding above the February high and forming a potential bull flag pattern, which projects an approximate target around 13,500. A larger flag pattern also remains in play with a target just below 14,000, although the October high and monthly R1 around 13700 provide a likely resistance area. The daily trend is respecting the 10 and 20-day EMA's and the structure favours a break of last week's high.
- Bulls could seek bullish setups around current levels in anticipation of a break higher, or around the monthly pivot point should we see a deeper pullback and invalidation of the smaller flag.
- The bias remains bullish above the monthly pivot
- Targets include the resistance clusters around 13,500 and 14,000
Nasdaq -> Time To Go All InHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nasdaq is approaching a quite obvious weekly previous structure area exactly at the HKEX:13 ,500 area from which we could see a short term rejection.
You can also see that we are currently quite overextended towards the upside on the weekly timeframe so I am now just waiting for a deeper retest of the weekly zone and then a short term correction towards the downside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that price action recently is very bullish so I am now just waiting for another push towards the upside and then I am waiting for some bearish rejection to short Nas100.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ to see a temporary move lower?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12892 (stop at 12822)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 6 days.
Bespoke support is located at 12892.
A move to 13153 will form an intraday bearish Gartley pattern.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 13153 and 13235
Resistance: 13100 / 13153 / 13236
Support: 12892 / 12848 / 12650
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
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Lazyluchi Trades Nasdaq100 EP 15NFP today don’t feel like TRADING because of the “silence-then-comes-the-storm” kinda situation that’s about to happen. However, I’ll always analyze the current state of the market. NQ looks BULLISH and that’s only because she broke past previous LHs to create HHs. So what? For longs, I’m focusing more on that “Hh” as for shorts—that “Hl”. These levels are possible spots to confirm a change. However, For a more valid confirmation of shorts will be that “20%”. So, now I’ll just wait and see what she does.
Taming the Bull:How to Trade the US100's Uptrend with ConfidenceThe US100 index has been showing bullish signs in recent weeks, with a strong uptrend that has seen it climb steadily higher. As a trader, it's important to identify opportunities in the market and take advantage of them when they arise. In this trading plan, we will be looking to capitalize on the bullish trend in US100 by entering a long position with a target of 13605.
Firstly, it's important to note that we are in a bullish trend. This means that there is a high probability of the price continuing to rise, making it an excellent time to enter a long position. It's important to note that there is a supply zone between 13477.6 and 13729.0. This means that there could be resistance in this area, potentially slowing down or even reversing the price movement. As our target of 13605 is within this supply zone, we need to be aware of this potential resistance and be prepared to adjust our trading plan accordingly.
One approach could be to take partial profits as we approach the supply zone, in case the price struggles to break through. Another option could be to move our stop loss closer to our entry point as we approach the zone, in order to lock in profits and minimize risk.
Technical Analysis:
Before we enter any trade, we need to perform a thorough analysis of the market. In this case, we can see that the US100 index has been trending higher since October 2020, with the price currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is a strong indication that the market is in a bullish trend.
Furthermore, we can identify several key support and resistance levels on the chart that could help us with our entry and exit points. The first level of resistance is at 12870, which is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. This level has already been tested multiple times and has held as resistance. The next level of resistance is at 12787, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This level has not yet been tested but could provide a good entry point for the trade.
Risk Management:
As with any trade, we need to manage our risk properly to ensure that we don't lose more than we can afford to. In this case, we can set our stop-loss at 12600, which is just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. This level has also held as support in the past, so if the price breaks below this level, it could be a sign that the bullish trend is weakening.
Entry:
There are two potential entry points for this trade. The first is at 12870, which is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. This level has already been tested multiple times and has held as resistance, so if the price breaks above this level, it could be a strong bullish signal. The second potential entry point is at 12787, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This level has not yet been tested but could provide a good entry point for the trade.
Target:
Our target for this trade is 13605, which is a key psychological level and the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level. This level has not yet been tested but could provide a good exit point for the trade. This gives us a potential profit of 705 points, which is more than twice our risk on the trade.
Monitoring:
Once we enter the trade, we need to monitor it closely to ensure that it is going according to plan. If the price moves against us and breaks below our stop-loss level, we need to be prepared to exit the trade and take our losses. If the price moves in our favor, we can consider adjusting our stop-loss to lock in profits or taking partial profits at certain levels.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the US100 index is currently in a strong bullish trend, and we can take advantage of this by entering a long position with a target of 13605. By analyzing the charts and identifying key support and resistance levels, we can manage our risk and position sizing
Please note that this is still just a sample trade plan and should not be considered as financial advice. It is important to do your own research and analysis before entering any trades and to only risk money that you can afford to lose.