Nasdaq100
$QQQ Bullish Parallel Uptrend Bullish Parallel Uptrend About to Break Lower, Wait and See at the Moment
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has been trading in a parallel uptrend since the beginning of the year. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, creating a series of parallel channels. This pattern is often seen as a bullish sign, as it suggests that the trend is in place and is likely to continue.
However, the QQQ is starting to show signs of weakness. The price has been unable to break through the upper trend line of the parallel channel, and it has started to make lower highs. This suggests that the bulls are starting to lose momentum.
I am waiting for the QQQ to break through the lower trend line of the parallel channel before making any trading decisions. If the price breaks through the lower trend line, it would be a sign that the uptrend is losing momentum and a bearish reversal could be in the works. However, if the price bounces off the lower trend line, it would be a sign that the bulls are still in control and the uptrend is intact.
I will continue to monitor the QQQ and will update my trading plan accordingly. In the meantime, I recommend that traders wait and see what happens before making any trades.
Here are some additional things to keep in mind:
The QQQ is starting to show signs of weakness.
The price has been unable to break through the upper trend line of the parallel channel.
I am waiting for the QQQ to break through the lower trend line of the parallel channel before making any trading decisions.
If the price breaks through the lower trend line, it would be a sign that the uptrend is losing momentum and a bearish reversal could be in the works.
However, if the price bounces off the lower trend line, it would be a sign that the bulls are still in control and the uptrend is intact.
Update with full count TSLAElliott Wave Theory , which is a technical analysis approach used to analyze and forecast financial market trends. The text seems to be describing the potential Elliott Wave pattern of Tesla's stock price movement.
AT the low of $101.86 Tesla has formed its bottom, which is higher degree wave II .
This means that at a price level of 101.86, Tesla's stock reached what is considered a significant low point. This low point is identified as a higher-degree "wave II." In Elliott Wave Theory , higher-degree waves are larger in scale and represent broader market trends.
Thereafter it formed higher high and higher lows and formed miner degree waves 1, 2, 3, and it is under miner degree 4 as of now and 4th wave seems to be under completion.
After the higher-degree wave II, Tesla's stock price started to form a series of smaller movements: higher highs and higher lows. These smaller movements are referred to as "minor degree waves." Tesla has completed minor degree waves 1, 2, and 3, and is currently in the process of completing minor degree wave 4. This indicates a series of price movements within the broader trend.
We expect the higher degree (1) will complete near the minor degree 5th wave target of $335.
Once minor degree wave 4 is completed, the stock's price will likely move upward, forming a higher-degree wave (1). This higher-degree wave (1) is expected to reach a target price of $335. In other words, the stock's price is predicted to rise in a significant movement.
After completing wave (1), it will move for wave (2) with a target price of $191.
Once the higher-degree wave (1) is completed, there will likely be a corrective movement in the form of higher-degree wave (2). This corrective wave (2) is projected to have a target price of $191, indicating a temporary decrease in the stock's price after the expected rise of wave (1).
Disclaimer: Financial markets are subject to significant volatility, uncertainty, and various external factors that can impact price movements. Any investment decisions made based on the information in the chart are at your own risk. Before making any financial decisions, it is strongly recommended that you conduct thorough research, seek advice from qualified financial professionals, and consider a range of reliable sources.
The use of technical analysis tools such as Elliott Wave Theory involves a degree of subjectivity and interpretation, and past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry inherent risks, and there are no guarantees of specific outcomes or returns.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 07/08/2023We might have finished an upward structure in the lower timeframe that aligns with the end of an upward structure in the higher timeframe. The corrective structure following the upward structure also looks complete now which means we can see more upside again. However, we cannot exclude a bigger correction that goes deeper into the wave (4) area.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 07
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 07
Last week, Short from 15904 resistance was good.
On weekly TF, market has closed below trend line.
Watch market's reaction to the trendline.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Short on retracement / rejection of 15511 level
2) Market does a spring and returns into rotation (grey box area), and target
can be 50% of rotation range, or trial to upper boundary of rotation
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16029 - 15904 15511 15118
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: NTC Ave vol down bar, and bar also closed below weekly trendline
Daily: NTC ave vol down bar | Lower High
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (06/08/2023)In the weekly, the NASDAQ looks bullish and might be doing a Wave III to the upside. However, the minimum requirements for a Wave II to the downside were not fulfilled. As long as we do not take out the Wave I high, it could be that we still make a new low as a Wave II. In the daily and 4h, it looks like the upward structure as a wave (3) is finished. Investors should wait for a good pullback before buying again. Currently, as an investor, we are in an area to take profit.
Nasdaq M Formation showing a pull back on the cards to 14,314M Formation has formed on Nasdaq after a stellar uptrend.
It's normal for the market to dip and for the buyers to bank their profits.
I don't think the downside will be strong and powerful. So my first target is only to 14,314.
We will then most likely consolidate, move sideways and then head up.
But you'll be the first to know.
NASDAQ 100’s special rebalance On 24 July, the NASDAQ 100 Index conducted a special rebalance to reduce the concentration of the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ in the index. The seven stocks whose strong performance this year has driven the index are Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta.
The index is typically reconstituted annually in December, with additional rebalancing opportunities each quarter. A special rebalance outside the usual schedule is only happening for the third time in the index’s history, with the first two having been in December 1998 and May 2011. According to NASDAQ, a special rebalance may be triggered if the aggregate weight of companies individually accounting for more than 4.5% of the index tops 48%. Based on this, NASDAQ announced its plan to rebalance the index on 7 July. The new weights were applied before the start of trading on 24 July.
What happened in the past?
Strong rallies in tech stocks were behind the special rebalances both in May 2011 and December 1998. In 2011, Apple was among the stocks that saw its weight being reduced notably following a period of strong performance. And in 1998, it was Microsoft1. Performance of the index following the two rebalances does not give much to go by. Following the rebalance in December 1998, the NASDAQ 100 continued on its upward trend while the index was weighed down following the rebalance in May 2011.
What it means for investors
For investors looking to position themselves tactically to benefit from this development, arguments can be made to support both bullish and bearish cases. Passive money tracking the NASDAQ 100 Index will be forced to sell the biggest names on Wall Street which have made a significant contribution to the index’s performance this year. This could create some volatility in the short-term especially given the special rebalance has happened in the middle of the earnings season and market sensitivity to announcements may be heightened. Already in the week of 17 July, when Tesla and Netflix announced their earnings, markets reacted adversely to their cautious outlook for the third quarter. This also means that it would be hard to completely isolate the impact of the rebalance on stock prices. A dip in prices may, however, may be seen by some investors as an entry point.
But while the move from NASDAQ is aimed at reducing the concentration of the biggest tech names in the index, the special rebalance does not mean that the NASDAQ 100’s risk profile has changed materially. The index follows a modified market capitalisation methodology which means that, subject to some limits of influence, the biggest companies will still occupy the largest weight. The index, therefore, continues to give investors a way to capture the sentiment in growth stocks, bullish or bearish.
In some of our recent blogs, we have also emphasised how the NASDAQ 100 is not a way to capture specific tech megatrends such as artificial intelligence (AI), despite investor sentiment towards AI driving the fortunes of some of the top names in the index. Dedicated AI strategies, such as the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence Index, tend to have relatively low overlap with the NASDAQ 100. Again, the rebalance does not fundamentally change this.
Closing word
The NASDAQ 100 Index was launched in 1985. This is only its third special rebalance in almost four decades. For an index which is focused on growth stocks, it signifies how contributors to performance have been concentrated right at the top this year. For tactical investors, there may be opportunities in the short-term resulting from this. For others, it may be a reminder of the need for diversification.
Sources
1 Source: CNBC report from 05 April 2011
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Gold or Nasdaq: What to Short this Week?For Gold (XAU/USD), the 4-hour chart suggests a neutral-to-bearish stance. While the pair is currently above its moving averages, the 50-day moving average is closely trailing its price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dropping towards a neutral level, indicating a potential pause in buyer activity. If Gold drops below $1,945, there is a risk of prices descending further and retesting their previous lows or the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $1,941.
The deciding factor for Gold this week will likely be the US jobs data. The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday is a significant event, and the precursor jobs data (JOLTS Job report on Tuesday) could also sway traders. The market expects the NFP to show 190K jobs added, more than double the natural US growth rate. A strong jobs figure could influence traders' anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and impact the downside outlook for Gold.
On the other hand, Nasdaq and other major US indices are expected to end July with gains. The Dow Jones has particularly shown impressive growth over the past two weeks. The outperformance of the Dow Jones suggests a possible shift by investors from growth stocks (such as Nasdaq stocks) to value stocks.
Looking at the daily chart, the Nasdaq Composite is now targeting a key resistance level at 14,649. However, there is a possibility of aggressive seller response at that level. On the 4-hour chart, a divergence with the MACD indicates weakening momentum, which is often followed by pullbacks.
Earnings reports from major tech companies, Apple and Amazon, will be crucial for Nasdaq this week. These two giants represent 11.6% of the entire Nasdaq index measured by market cap. Better-than-expected US earnings could potentially prolong the bull run in the market.
Lazyluchi Trades Nasdaq100 EP 21new week and also entering into a new month. nasdaq100 seems to be approaching it's previous ath. which is cool considering how we've been in that bear phase for a bit. i'm still buying and actually waiting to see what happens at that ath area. if i can catch a few sells too. the zones that i’m more focused on this week bulls are: 15770, 15809, and 15883. as for the bears, there’s a possibility of her breaking past 15686 and going bananas or, she goes to her ath and just falls due to previous supply in the area. i’m still bullish just attentive.