Nasdaq100
Short Position - NASDAQShort Position Entry: Consider initiating a short position if the Nasdaq-100 Index falls below 21,000.
Stop Loss (SL): Set a stop loss at 21,555 to manage potential losses.'
Market Sentiment: The combination of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and rising inflation may contribute to a weakening market sentiment, potentially leading to a downward movement in the index.
his recommendation is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stock trading involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
Nasdaq 100 Index Plummets After Fed DecisionNasdaq 100 Index Plummets After Fed Decision
On 17th December, analysing the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), we:
→ Drew a blue upward channel relevant for 2024;
→ Noted that the price was near the upper boundary of the channel, while the RSI indicator had entered the overbought zone;
→ Suggested that bulls might face difficulties in pushing the price to a new all-time high.
Yesterday, the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.25%. Although it was anticipated, the market reaction was sharply negative. The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) dropped by approximately 4%.
The steep market reaction was driven by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during the press conference, where he stated that the FOMC plans to cut rates only twice in 2025, contrary to market expectations of four cuts.
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart shows that:
→ The price remains in the upper half of the channel, supported by the 21,230 level, which previously acted as resistance (as indicated by arrows).
→ We can assume that the area around the median of the blue channel (marked by orange lines) could act as a barrier to further downward momentum, as medians often serve as equilibrium zones where supply and demand balance out.
What’s next? According to analysts at Zacks, record highs for the tech stock index may not be a topic of discussion in the near future.
There is a possibility that a local descending channel could form, potentially driving the price into the lower half of the broader upward channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq 100: Make-or-Break Trendline SupportChart Analysis:
The US 100 Index has pulled back from recent highs but remains above its rising trendline (black), maintaining the broader bullish structure.
1️⃣ Rising Trendline:
The trendline, originating from the August lows, has been a key dynamic support for the index. Price is currently testing this level around 21,150, making it a critical area to watch.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): The index remains above the 50-day SMA at 20,818, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 19,438, reflecting a long-term bullish trend.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 51.88, signaling neutral momentum, giving room for the index to either bounce or consolidate further.
MACD: The MACD line has turned downward, suggesting weakening bullish momentum but no decisive bearish crossover yet.
What to Watch:
A bounce from the trendline could signal a continuation of the uptrend, with immediate resistance near the recent highs around 21,600.
A break below the trendline may shift attention to the 50-day SMA or the 20,800 level for potential support.
The US 100 Index remains within a broader bullish structure, with the rising trendline acting as a critical support level for near-term price action.
-MW
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/19/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/20/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 19 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None - FOMC on Wednesday night
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Note: Did not trade FOMC on Wednesday, because generally I don’t like to trade news. For me, it’s more of a gamble than a situation where I can stack the probabilities in my favour.
Morning analysis:
FOMC reaction was huge, with price plummeting through the floor.
4H and Daily fib levels were all smashed. The last remaining fib level in the morning was the W 0.618 fib level.
A huge DT had formed on the D TF (marked in green lines). D neckline was broken down and price had travelled to the profit target zone (as marked by the green vertical line).
Price had touched the W 0.618 fib level and moved back up, showing a strong reaction to this last line of defence for the bulls.
In this case, because price had reached profit target, I was looking for a buy.
If price had not yet reached profit target, I would have been cautious with a buy because I have noted how respectful Nasdaq can be of profit targets.
It is normally the case that price would re-test the neckline of the market pattern just broken, once price has reached profit target, so I felt confident with a buy.
As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern started forming (marked with blue lines). These usually break upwards, but can break either direction.
Price broke the pattern upwards and I entered at the lower hand icon.
Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - Two market patterns where at play here. A falling wedge broken upwards + DB on the 1H TF with the neckline (drawn in orange) broken upwards.
2. S&R - Market patterns where forming at a weekly S&R area.
3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall market trend. DB was forming right at the uptrend line area on the bigger timeframes (marked with the diagonal red line). Temporary downtrend line of falling wedge broken upwards
4. Fib - Long wick candle spike down to W 0.618 fib level
5. Candlesticks - Long wick candle showing a strong reaction to the W 0.618 fib level.
Mental stop was placed at the thick pink line, i.e. half of the height of the DB.
Price moved up well.
Now for setting TP's.
Setting take profit in these situations is difficult. Usually, I would use the fib level that I entered on, to provide guidance as to TP1 and TP2 (fib extensions).
But in this case, we are not in a trending market and aiming for the Weekly TP (because that is the fib level at play here) is too ambitious.
The highlighted green areas are very strong sell areas of confluence. I set these two areas as potential take profit zones.
Depending how strong bulls are, they may push all the way to the D neckline and push through, or they may just touch an EMA or sell fib level and price reverses downwards.
I have left a lot of money on the table in these scenarios before, by just assuming bulls will break the D neckline back upwards. So was determined today to learn from my past mistakes.
I ended up taking partial profit at +- 1000 pips, because I didnt like the strong reaction to the 30min EMA. With Nas, if price is VERY bullish or bearish, then price will react to the 30 EMA. So the fact that bears were so prominent at the 30 EMA, made me want to lock in some profits.
Price continued to move up and had a strong reaction to the D EMA (where it was at that time in history). Price had not even reached the area of sell confluence marked in green, and we were seeing a strong bearish push. Decided to take profit again at the top hand icon (+- 1'700 pips) and leave a runner open.
Runner got taken out at entry when price came tumbling down.
I am happy with my take profit decisions. This was the first time that I capitalised correctly on the move I was looking for.
I feel this proves the value of screen time and really trying to make sense of how price is reacting in various situations.
You may feel no progress at first, but in the long run, you will slowly start handling situations better and better.
Looks now like the market has turned bearish.
Weekly EMA and fist W fib level are very far down. Uptrend line on high TF's is also broken.
The buy wont just happen in a heart beat (in my opinion). Price will first start consolidating as bulls build strength and momentum and make a reversal pattern on the higher TF's before truly making a big move up.
Hope you had a good day! If you were in with a sell on FOMC, its caviar and champagne for the holiday season! ;)
Stats:
The total bullish move for the day was 2'572 pips:
I captured 66% (1'700pips) of the total move - Happy with that!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/18/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/17/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Nasdaq 100 Reaches Record HighNasdaq 100 Reaches Record High
On 29th October, analysing the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart, we:
→ Drew a blue upward channel relevant for 2024.
→ Noted that the price was in a consolidation phase (indicated by narrowing purple lines) at the channel's median, suggesting a potential balance of supply and demand forces.
→ Warned that earnings season could trigger a volatility spike.
→ Suggested that the price was likely heading toward a new all-time high.
Since then:
→ Amid company earnings reports, we observed a volatility spike in November, which was further amplified by the release of US presidential election results.
→ The index achieved a new all-time high.
The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart shows that the index surpassed the $22,000 level for the first time yesterday. This was supported by positive trader sentiment ahead of tomorrow's Fed interest rate decision. According to Forex Factory, the rate will be cut by another 25 basis points (returning to the February 2023 level).
Meanwhile, the technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) reveals that:
→ The price has approached the upper boundary of the upward channel, which could serve as strong resistance.
→ Since early December, the index has risen by approximately 5.5%, and the RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone for the first time since July.
Under such conditions, bulls may struggle to continue the upward momentum, as more investors might look to lock in profits ahead of the holiday season. Additionally, the market's reaction to tomorrow's Fed interest rate release at 21:00 GMT+2 may play a key role.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq 100: Sustained Uptrend with Strong Momentum SignalsChart Analysis: The Nasdaq 100 has maintained a steady uptrend after rebounding from its August low, respecting a rising trendline (black) and staying above key moving averages. Here's a breakdown of the key observations:
1️⃣ Trendline Support:
The price has respected the ascending black trendline, acting as dynamic support during pullbacks. This showcases strong bullish commitment.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Projection:
The price is approaching the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (around 22,694), a potential area for traders to watch closely for reaction. Extensions like this often serve as resistance in trending markets.
3️⃣ Moving Averages:
The 50-day SMA (blue) remains upward sloping, while the 200-day SMA (red) confirms a long-term bullish structure.
Price action staying well above these averages signals continued strength.
4️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Nearing 70, indicating strong momentum, though traders may watch for overbought signals.
MACD: Bullish crossover continues, with rising histogram bars suggesting increasing buying pressure.
What to Watch:
Whether the price can sustain momentum towards the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level (~22,694).
A healthy pullback towards the trendline or the 50-day SMA could offer clues for continuation patterns.
Momentum indicators may warrant attention for short-term overbought conditions.
The Nasdaq 100 remains firmly in an uptrend with bulls firmly in control. A break and hold above the Fibonacci extension would signal potential for further gains. Keep an eye on volume and momentum as price nears key levels.
-MW
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 16 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - None, FOMC this Wednesday
News - None
Directional bias - BUY, Nasdaq is bullish overall so want to trade with the trend - "The trend is your friend".
Morning analysis:
M TF - Very Bullish, large green candle in formation
W TF - Very Bullish, large green candle in formation
D TF - Friday's candle closed in a rough doji candle formation which could signal that bulls are running out of steam to push price higher. But the candle did close green higher than the previous D highest candle close. So bulls did manage to break the resistance of the previous Day's highest close. I took this to be a bullish signal.
4H TF - Price gapped up as extended hours started trading today. Bulls pushed upwards and when I opened my charts there were a few red candles on the 1H TF.
1H TF - Noted a temporary downtrend line formed (marked in turquoise).
Noted 2 x interest areas / areas of confluence (marked in green highlight):
1. Top green area = 1H + D + 4H fib levels + Day pivot point. This represents time frame confluence and a great area of reversal.
2. Bottom green area = 4h EMA (at some point this morning, it has now moved due to passage of time) + 4H + D 0.618 fib level.
4H fib drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B.
1H fib drawn from swing low at C to swing high at D.
As the day progressed:
Price started reacting to the top highlighted green area, until a DB formed on the 15min TF, signalling that price was ready to move up.
Entered in the green candle close at the hand icon, which represents a nice momentum candle + breaking the temporary downtrend line.
Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - DB on the 15min TF = reversal pattern in the direction I want
2. S&R - DB formed above the pivot point + 1H EMA providing dynamic support
3. Trend - Temporary downtrend line broken and trade is in the overall direction of the market
4. Fib - Price reacting to 1H + 4H + D fib levels representing strong TF confluence
5. Candlesticks - DB neckline broken with a strong momentum candle on the 15min TF
Mental SL placed at half the height of the 15min DB (marked with the think pink line).
Price moved up nicely and I took partial profits at the top hand icon at 1'725 pips, which represented the TP1 of the 4H / D fib extension (as shown).
Holding the rest until candles give the indication to close eg. DT forming on the 15min TF, with neckline broken down.
Easy peasy day at my trading desk - wish every day was this easy! :)
Hope you had a good day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/16/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Weekly Forex Forecast: Buy The S&P & NASDAQ. Wait On The DOW!This forecast is for the week of DEC 16 - 20th.
The SP500 & NAS100 are bullish and buys are the order for the week. The DOW Jones is weeker, sliding down as the USD climbs. Be careful here, as the DOW tends to travel it's own path at times.
FOMC is Wednesday. Stay vigilant and disciplined this week!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
US100 | 30M | SCALPING TIME Hi guys, I made CAPITALCOM:US100 analysis for you. For this kind of analysis, please value my analysis with your likes Thank you very much to everyone who supports me by liking
SIGNAL ALERT
SELL US100 21,726.5 - 21,730.1
🟢TP1: 21,700,9
🟢TP2: 21,670,1
🟢TP3: 21,600,1
🔴SL: 21,831,8
Stay with love guys.