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Tesla the Tantalizing: SEC Settlement Likely Confirms RangeOn Friday evening, headlines screamed that Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk had reportedly made a surprisingly bold and extremely risky decision to fight charges of fraud by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). On Saturday, it looked like reason and rationality prevailed with an official announcement of a settlement deal issuing a slap on the wrist including a $40M fine (split between Musk and his company), resignation as chair of the TSLA board, two additional board members with no ties to Musk, and no admission or denial of guilt. On Friday, it looked like Musk was willing to take the company down in flames to preserve his ego. Now, it looks like TSLA is ready to rev higher again. This tantalizing volatility sits quite comfortably as of a 21-month trading range that is the stubborn breakout from the previous near 4-year trading range. After TSLA gapped down on the abrupt resignation of its CFO, I explained why I was finally done betting on TSLA although I was not going to sell into the panic. On Friday, I was of course relieved that I decided to sell those shares into the relief rally. Still, there are short-term trades available on TSLA as it continues to churn through its trading range(s). For example, I am still holding onto my old November 380/420 call spread as an outside bet that TSLA somehow attains the value its CEO thinks the company deserves. Obviously, time is running out on that position. In the wake of the SEC charges that drove Friday’s gap down and 13.9% loss, I covered a hedged short position and established a fresh set of hedged option plays. I expected more downside pressure with the outside possibility of a rapid decline through a series of gap downs. The settlement news makes the stock much more likely in the short-term to experience a relief rally right back to 50/200DMA resistance. My combination of far out of the money put, put spread, calendar put spread, and calendar call spread now looks overly weighted to the bearish side. Monday’s trading action will likely determine my next adjustments (I still do not want to own shares until after the company executes its next funding round). TSLA is churning and volatile, but its penchant for bouncing away from key resistance points and rebounding off key support levels makes the stock too tantalizing to resist. The volumes of commentary have also been a fascinating feature of TSLA’s latest drama. The SEC charges and then news that Musk turned down a settlement offer finally motivated pundits like Jim Cramer to come out and unequivocally expound upon the bearish case. Here is a brief clip of Cramer’s longer commentary. I also enjoyed the frantic reporting and the defense of a staunch TSLA bull who insisted on keeping his focus on the very long-term TSLA story. And then there was the less frantic and very measured reporting from James (Jim) Stewart of the New York Times. Stewart presented a clear and compelling case for Musk to settle with the SEC (good thing Musk apparently listened to people like Stewart!). In the SEC, Musk finally met his match. He was forced to back down a bit from his perch and his social media commentary will likely become a lot less colorful going forward. Still, I do not expect a lack of fireworks from Musk to translate to muted action in TSLA’s stock. The TSLA story remains a very divisive one with so many taking strong sides one way or the other. Both positive and negative news headlines should continue to generate strong reactions until TSLA’s future becomes clears up. Perhaps TSLA is no longer “$420 or bust,” but it is still “revolution or bust.” From SEC Chairman Jay Clayton: “This matter reaffirms an important principle embodied in our disclosure-based federal securities laws. Specifically, when companies and corporate insiders make statements, they must act responsibly, including endeavoring to ensure the statements are not false or misleading and do not omit information a reasonable investor would consider important in making an investment decision.” Be careful out there! Full disclosure: long TSLA put, put spreads, and calendar call spread
NASDAQ:TSLA
by drduru
TESLA - Dumping with Musk Stepping Down as Chairman?Elon Musk agreed Saturday to step down as chairman of Tesla and pay a $20 million fine in a deal to settle charges brought this week by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Credit: money.cnn.com We expect the price to continue falling with the recent news of Elon Musk stepping down as the chairman of Tesla. We are expecting price hit minimally around the 208 - 242 region with a potential to fall lower towards 178 and even 141 levels. *Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach. The sharing of this idea is neither necessarily indicative of nor a guarantee of future performance or success.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by KarYong
4
Long Term Ascending Triangle but Watch that Support!It's tough to imagine being anything but long-term bullish on Tesla. There's strong resistance at $400. May consider buying more if it ever breaks, but with the recent news that Tesla will remain public, it could be a while before that happens. Until then, I may buy on dips, but don't expect any huge short term gains. I'm in it for the Tesla mission. However there's always that chance that it breaks early and we can start talking about TSLA at $4000 in a few years. The only reason we're not seeing exponential growth already, is because fossil fuel shorts. They don't care if they lose money shorting Tesla. As long as they get to keep their pundits in the media, spreading FUD, their mission is accomplished. They know their days are numbered, but they're still cashing in while they can at everyone else's expense. If you're smart, you can see through the bullshit and noise. Will be keeping a close eye on that ~$290 support. If it breaks below in a big way, that will become the new resistance. If that happens, the planet loses, we all lose.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by rbownb
3
The Tesla Beasrs are really getting desperate. It's hard not to see Tesla's recent dip in price as a classic example of the market following a short term narrative that is a measure of our feelings and reactions instead of a measure of a companies true long term value potential. So Tesla hit the 5000 units per week that everyone said they wouldn't so the bears/shorts/fossil fuel proponents and general haters response was to go on a negative media blitz with all kinds of comical criticism, like Elon was yelling a lot on the factory floor. Or they had to pull works off the S and X lines (even though those line still hit their goal) or they say that production might drop to 4500 in July. Or they don't like that there was an innovative tent assembly line, or lot's of people were working over time. The argument that they can't make any more is about viability, they can't deny Teslas ability to mass produce these vehicles. Even if it does drop to 4000/units in July, what do you think August and September will be? hmmm, probably at least 5000/units. Now is it profitable? well Tesla reports a gross 20% margin, do you think they are lying to the SEC? that's quite the claim to make, any evidence?? Third party firms also agree the model 3 vehicle probably has a 20% gross margin. But there are still a lot of overhead costs eating up capital like building one of the largest structures known to man kind, that costs a little bit to do, but as they start producing more and more vehicles the 20% margin will start to create a larger and larger pool of cash to offset diminishing investments costs. The math here seems quite strong. Revenue goes up, expenses goes down, profit emerges. All though I am still pessimistic they they will report a net profit this year. What if they run out of money??? well share holders won't like it but they will be able to raise more money, production will increase, revenue will increase. Even if the debt is restructured, investors won't have the Giga factory chopped up and auctioned off. I think we've hit escape velocity.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by alexr451
5
Tesla Shortdon't mind my gibberish, is 4 personal follow up on trade strategy. too many fundamentals screaming for musk-pocalypse seekingalpha.com Problems Model 3 (production, model itself) Strongly shorted % of free float, shortvolume.com Order book only half full, reservations aren’t orders. Executive departures Cash burn rate & profitability, www.ft.com High level of corporate debt, ftalphaville.ft.com Raising equity: www.bloomberg.com Massive market cap vs EV new entrants 2018-2019: TSLA 50bn market cap vs Toyota 25bn, vw 84bn, bmw 57bn, audi 34bn, ford 45bn)
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by BC-Polar-Capital
Is Tesla a Cult Stock? Big Longs, Big Shorts, and New Money. . .Tesla as a company inspires controversy today just as its namesake scientist did many years ago. Is TSLA price supported by a cult-like following rallying around its futuristic visions and outspoken genius-billionaire Elon Musk? More importantly, what stock price makes sense for Tesla? There's no good answer; but based on fundamental factors alone (missed earnings, hazy forecasting, uncertain production and sales, dispute over what sectors the company operates in and what exactly the company "is" and "does," and the conundrum that poses for risk and profitability assessment), Tesla should be trading at much lower prices. The shorts seem to think so, with short interest in the stock weighing in at almost one-third of the tradable float. It's clear many believe Tesla price will fall as the company's visions don't come to fruition. A plummeting stock price would lead to a funding debacle for Tesla's varied projects. The scientist Nikola Tesla was driven to madness and ruin as big money left his projects to wither. Without the nutrition of capital for funding his innovations, Nikola's breakthrough ideas fell by the wayside and his business endeavors crumbled. Big money and big players conspired against Tesla the scientist and his gregarious futuristic ideals. Will Tesla the company suffer the same fate as Tesla the scientist? A lot of money is betting against the company and the fundamentals don't make sense. Is Tesla price being propped by investors who believe in Musk's vision and the revolutionary implications of his technologies, who will HODL no matter what the company's stock does? The top handful of holders of Tesla stock own about 50% of the value of the company, including Musk himself. Musk recently agreed to a desirable pay package, so F.U.D. speculation that Elon was heading for the exits seems to be just that - F.U.D. So we have a handful of believers HODL-ing half of Tesla stock, and big short interest - a third of the float - believing Tesla stock is headed down. Some analysts believe the stock will head higher, trigger a short squeeze, and catapult the stock price hundreds of dollars higher than it is now. Others believe Tesla's efforts span too much breadth across too many industries and the company will collapse, unable to raise money for its endeavors. Will Tesla the company persevere with its groundbreaking innovations in technologies spanning several industries and areas of life, squeezing the shorts and bringing value to shareholders and consumers alike? Or will Tesla the company go the way of Tesla the scientist, ostracized as the big money clears out, leaving big ideas to wither? Only time will tell. Initiative\activist investing can only go so far, but if things go right, they might go very right, not only in a business sense, but in a futuristic sense as well. Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together. Thanks again! See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/ ** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
NASDAQ:TSLA
by holsturr
SCTY: Bottom or bust?On an absolute level, the price of SCTY -0.61% has declined to around 80% of its all time high. The question then becomes: is company's equity price going to stabilize at this level or is this the calm before the storm (a path to zero)? The company has a great story and in the eyes of many a visionary founder and ceo at the helm. The proposed merger may be partially attributable to the downward slide in the price of its equity . I believe in what they are doing and have confidence in the net benefit to all stakeholders - even shareholders for pushing forward with this vision of the future. However,this should not detract from the problems the company may or may not be facing and understanding if there is a value from purchasing equity at current price levels. I intend to answer this question from both a fundamental and chart perspective. On a fundamental valuation, I will stick to the process Prof. Damodaran (NYU Stern) uses in determining value. The intent of this analysis will be to determin a view on trading/investing in this company for a long term holding (+6 month). If both views show a basis agreement, it would be prudent on my part to put my capital to work on those findings. From a chart perspective, my opinion is a sell - and that has been the case for the past couple of months when looking at a weekly price trend. However, a monthly price chart will reveal the share price has been knocked down to relative lows and nearing ranges not since it IPO'ed. From that view it would be time to start considering opportunities, if they present themselves to go long, and seeing if the trend manages to reverse. Initiating shorts may less fruitful now given that the price drop has panned out in terms of magnitude and time. I will update this in some time to include the valuation based on the fundamentals.
S
by prcruz408
TSLA Medium Term Short - Next leg down from the bearish trendTSLA (Tesla) Short Here's a setup of a TSLA short that I've initiated on Friday. Looking at the Fibonacci retracement lines, it has struggled to breakout of the 38.2% line after it's initial denial at the 23.6% line. Recently, there has been a breakout from the 38.2% region due to a strong market, despite negative Tesla stories as of late. Similarly, price has had difficulty breaking above the 200sma, which it broke just as of late. However, the main bearish trend line, top one in blue, is acting as strong resistance. Tesla closed once again at the 38.2% line, looking to make a reversal here and head back to low 200s. Unless there is a breakout of the top trendline, I expect another leg down push, hopefully into the low 200s/high 100s region. This is a purely technical-based short setup but is very influenced by Tesla news. Musk has yet to release his master plan which he had mentioned this past week. Any evidence of a breakout of the blue line would be a good place to cover a short position.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by amishra36
TSLA Cup and Handle 2.0In the end of August of 2014, Tesla completed the formation of a cup with a short handle, and within a few trading sessions, catalysts such as the China Unicom charger deal and Stifel's upgrade of TSLA with a price target of $400 caused the stock to break out and confirm the pattern. A similar cup and short handle has formed today ahead of the Model X reveal. TSLA CEO Elon Musk said in the last quarterly call that Model X configurations will be done in "Early July", which by Tesla time, is actually "Late July".
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by 32no
4
Who Made $195 So Important ???I was actually glancing at a 60 minute chart when I realized the $195.50 ish level on the chart. I chose to share a Daily chart instead. Back in December TSLA hit the $195ish level. Again in January. Again in February. And now again in March. Since December, when TSLA came down to the $195ish level, it managed to go higher pretty quickly. Will TSLA perform this time like it has in the past? Or will it break lower from here? Your guess is as good as mine... March 18 Update - The Dance Continues TSLA is still dancing around this $195 level. There was one day, a few days back, where it looked like TSLA was breaking to the downside. But the next day it gapped back up. Don't be impatient. If you are waiting for a break one way or the other then look for confirmation in that direction. It may not be a good idea to jump the gun on this stock at this time. Since my original post of this idea, Elon Musk announced a press conference for tomorrow. There is no telling what this new information will do for the stock. Longs or Shorts could benefit...
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TheTrendLineInvestor
6
Orbital Sciences Corp share price plungesShares in Orbital Sciences Corp have fallen faster than its Antares rocket in US pre-market trading overnight, dropping as much as 16 per cent after its mission to the International Space Station exploded spectacularly seconds after launch. The unmanned rocket was taking 5,000 pounds of supplies to the space station, but exploded shortly after it took off at a launchpad in Virginia. The good news is no-one was injured, although this is the first major failure since Nasa started outsourcing its missions to private companies, which also include SpaceX, the company founded by Tesla entrepreneur Elon Musk.
OShort
by charttrader
Tesla is going to have to supercharge after this driveTesla, aka the "stock of 2014" looks like its wild drive might be coming to a temporary end. As much as I love this company, I see us at a temporary top, and I am looking for a shorting opportunity in the 265-275 zone. Wave properties since March suggest we are in a corrective ABC flat, and are close to the B "top". Other indicators such as RSI and declining volume are supporting this theory. Since the B wave is (and should a little more) higher then the top of wave 5, this suggests we will have an "irregular flat", meaning wave C should drop lower then wave A. But since this is a powerful company, a safe target to close short would be anywhere near the 190 zone. Even teslas don't run forever. Let this puppy charge up for a while. Good luck
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Nathanael
2