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Multitimeframeanalysis

Ending of a Dramatic Week / Bitcoin ₿Quite the week for BTC. 1) A Buy Publishing was made last thursday at price $25,607 2) A Long Ethereum Publishing was made on Saturday at price $1,728 3) A Neutral Publishing was made on Tuesday at price $27,943 4) A Short Publishing was made Yesterday at price $29,318 Current Price is $30,177 BTC has been breaking zones to the upside and it is easy to understand that many players could be engaging in a chase with the market. I Choose patience and good Risk/Reward ideas over chasing the market and hoping that it will continue to rise. I can take a buy here but it's risky. Better to wait on a pullback. In the meantime I see good RR trade ideas. At the end of the day it comes down to the repetition of a process that has probabilities in your favor. And of course manging risk and cutting losses short when you are wrong.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ShrewdCatfx
Impending Volatility ☕ / EurusdThe Weekly candle has touched into 1.1012, only 12 pips from our weekly resistance level 1.1024. On the daily timeframe we can observe a bearish candle Shooting star rejection candle is forming and price is currently below our 1.098 Daily S/R Zone. On the 4Hr timeframe we can observe price having issues with the 1.0995 4Hr Supply zone. The 2nd London 4hr candle has just closed bearish with a top wick twice the size of the body. The new 4hr candle thus far has confirmed our bearish thoughts as it has pushed down 14 pips in the first 15 minutes. 1Hr Timeframe : Price retreated during asian session pre-london towards our Daily S/R Level 1.098 which I capitalized on. We then rejected 1.098 S/R Zone upon initial retest as I forecasted in my prev publishing. We ran the highs from asian session and price made it's way a bit higher before pulling back hard for New York session open. We can observe clean traffic going back down 1.0956 and this is what I'm looking for to play out with sell stops .
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
6
News Speeches Stir the pot 🕊️// Eurusd We would like to see the Daily candle close above 1.0945 as this will confirm a breakout to the upside. The candle at that point will close above the daily resistance zone created by last friday's daily candle. The idea is that we have momentum leftover from last week and will see the curretn weekly candle push deeper into the Daily/Weekly zones above. Wild trading day for me but besides that Eurusd has seen a resurgence of bullish volume that we were anticipating after last weeks Weekly candle closure. We were anticipating a continuation of momentum this week and I mentnioned in my previous Eurusd publishing that we may pullback and conolisdate early in the week as the markets sets up. The market needs time to gather liquidity before it makes significant moves. It does that by causing alot of volatility and commotion in the short term in order to get traders on tilt and stir up the pot. Moving forward I'm looking towards a retest of the extreme 1Hr Zone 1.096 and eventually an increase to the next daily resistance level 1.0982 during the next london session.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
The Resurgence. A Fake-Breakout on Ethereum The Weekly candle suggests that it may be closing as a Hammer candle in 29 hours. In anticipation of this, we are anticpating more bullish volume as we move into the next week of trading. Bulls have carried price back inside our 4Hr Range on Ethereum. Price returned to the top of the 4hr range around 1765. We have since returned to the bottom of the range where I can observe a good reward/risk idea. This is known as a Fakeout or Fake-Breakout with regard to price action analysis. It occurs frequently in the market in which price will "Breakout" and candles close outside a range. Soon enough though, price closes back within the range after capturing enough liquidity from the other side. As a consequence we may see a burst of momentum going the other way. A useful belief that has served me well in the markets has been " Anything can happen" Therefore, have reasonable expectations and cut losses short and manage risk if the market doesn't go our way. 1708$ is our SL ( a 20$ Loss or -1R ) Take Profit 1 is 1765$ ( a 36$ gain or a 1.8: 1 Reward/Risk ) Take Profit 2 is 1805$ ( a 77$ gain or a 3.5 : 1 Reward/Risk ) Take Profit 3 is 1842$ ( a 114$ gain or a 5.7: 1 Reward/Risk )
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Buyers are we Stretching the Luck? 🫢- Weekly Candle is Bullish and has pushed past the previous week's high creating a nice breakout of 77 pips - The 3 Daily candles this week have been Bullish - The Previous Daily candle increased by 70 pips in total ( 31 Pip Body and 40 Pips top wick ) - The previous daily candle's top wick was larger than the body of the candle itself. - The 4hr timeframe has closed two large engulfing bear candles in the time since Interest rates - The Market has punished late buyers with Interest rates data ( I called this out check previous post) - The market has seen a change of character and this has known to be a frequent occurrence with interest rate releases. - I don't think a randomness bias is associated with this Short Idea after we have seen 3 Bullish daily candles in a row ( The evidence above ) - The Market is Beast and representation of the psychology of all of it's participants. Follow your understanding of the price behavior and execute with only good Risk/Reward Ideas.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates NewsWe saw our increase on Eurusd Halted after the Fed raised rates 3 weeks ago. Now we gain more information on the reasons for their decision. The market has had time to digest the rates and resulted in a substantial decrease for the month of May. We must now observe how the market reacts to their reasons for an increase in rates and the cost of money. Will the dollar continue it's momentum and we see a Eurusd decrease, or will Eurusd pivot bullish in the short term as it digests the Fed's reasoning's. Bear Targets for the rest of May and the month of June are - 1.06654 Weekly Zone - 1.05426 Weekly Zone Bull targets for the rest of May are - a return to Daily level 1.08725 Bull targets for the month of June are - a return to 1.1024 weekly level - a push to 1.14655 Weekly level
by ShrewdCatfx
[ BTC ₿ ] Set for a Pullback? ↘️- BTC Monthly candle is set to close in 6 Days and it appears to be closing as an engulfing candle - This current weekly candle has 4 days left to close. We have confirmed momentum already as the 3 previous weekly candles are bearish - The weekly timeframe is rejecting the June 6th,2022 Weekly Resistance Level at ( 30,000$ ) - Our Last Daily Level 26,749$ has just seen a large Daily engulfing candle close strongly below it -We may observe here on the line chart that the price is dribbling downwards and the bears appear to be in charge at least in the short term here - The first target for shorts being ( 24,309 $ ) Daily Zone & Weekly S/R Zone - Shorts target for June is ( 22,009 $ ) Weekly Zzone
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ShrewdCatfx
3
Creation of the Top wick / Weekly Candle / End of WeekThere are only two things that can happen on Friday's Daily Candle 1) Price may continue to create a larger weekly candle body or 2) the weekly candle will form a larger wick and retrace This week we are observing the latter Price is pulling away from the High prices created during yesterday's New York Session If the Daily candle closes beneath 1.0762 then we have returned back into the range and will be eyeing out potential short setups to begin next week. For Buys I would've preferred that we would have held 1.07615 Daily S/R Zone as we can see it played a key role in pivoting on 6/2, 5/19, and 3/27 Now we continue the range as far as Im concerned. We may pullback to the highs ( 1.0774 and 1.0786) early next week ( Monday/Tuesday ) then dive back to support at 1.069 Daily Support.
by ShrewdCatfx
USD/CHF: a multi-timeframe view. Where are we headed next?Today, we will examine USDCHF from a multi-timeframe perspective. Firstly, looking at the WEEKLY-timeframe chart on the left-hand side of the screen, it can be observed that the price has nicely rejected the key region of resistance aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level identified from the massive Weekly TF impulses. Narrowing into lower-timeframe graphics, we may notice a preliminary triangle pattern that has been determined by connecting the recent highs and lows as portrayed on the chart. Furthermore, the upper boundary of the triangle nicely lines up with the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent impulse. Hence, if the price manages to reach the entry zone we have highlighted on the graph (0.9085), we will look into entering short positions and aiming for the region of support pictured on the Weekly chart (0.886).
Short
by Investroy
27
Forex Gods 🧞 Dare to Continue Eurusd? Well.. entering the final london session of the week here. I'd be a fool to change up on my analysis. What I have projected thus far this week has occurred exactly as I had anticipated. Would I be foolish to give up on this and outsmart my original idea so to speak. I don't want to play myself. When you stick around in the markets long enough, you begin to see things occur over and over again. Those who know, understand. It's not complicated though and it's actually pretty straightforward. When you mix an attachment to money in there, well no sh*t it is tied to our survival in the modern age. Well that's when things get complicated. Otherwise, I'm simply drawing lines and articulating what's unknown to me at this present time. I've done it long enough now to the point in which I am quite confident either way. Most of the time price bounces at my levels and so for the rest of time I will have the ability to create attractive Risk/Reward ideas. What a privilege. The difficult part is sticking around long enough to gain another perspective. I've seen many come and go and I feel lonely at times. I suppose that so long as I can draw my accurate level's/zones on the charts, the gods will have a place for me. Just as the gods do for all of us.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
More Gas in the Tank? Eurusd 🌬️If we are trading with the trend then it would be wise of us to continue to look for short setups. However, Price has plunged to the downside plenty and it is reasonable to ask when will we see a correction. My thoughts are that we see a dip early in the week. Buyers eventually show up around our weekly level 1.06654 and we continue up for the rest of the week or consolidate after liquidating late shorts. The debt ceiling controversy may be used as an excuse to pump risk assets. It would also provide a nice opportunity for the dollar to pullback. Alot of talks about the dollar being over-extended may see a last and final burst to liquidate any dollar shorts at these level's. After that the dollar may then ease off the highs and pull down for the rest of the week. (Meanwhile EurUsd would go up) A double bottom looks like it may be forming on the 4Hr and so we may an increase on Eurusd sooner rather than later. Anything may happen and so we must follow the processes we have set in place to protect ourselves. Expect nothing from the market and it cannot dissapoint you. There is always another day to trade your setup as there is always another week to execute your strategy. Trading Talk: The way in which I execute my two setups during NY session are as follows. Setup 1: Outline the specific zone you would like to execute this setup. Set your alert(s) Setup 2: Pick your current bullish or bearish bias and write it on the chart. I only allow myself up to 15 Trades / Day But I will not lose more than the Percentage equivalent of 2 Losing trades. Beforehand my risk management strategy was only as good as my skill. But Sometimes to a fault. Now my risk management strategy is as good as my Preparation. And this will encourage only the higher quality setups. Have a good trading week.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Eurusd Longs " Where art thou ? " 🔭As Bank Holiday Trading comes to a close, we can observe another Bearish Daily candle. The Eur is weak through the holiday trading and the U.S dollar advance is yet to give in. The dollar index is a little bit better than B.E. on the day. For Eurusd : - Watch 1.07116 4Hr Support zone closely. A Strong 4Hr candle closure rejecting this level may send us quickly back up to 4Hr resistance Zone 1.074 and next we may retest our most recent Daily Level ( Daily S/R Zone 1.076 ) - A touch into our 1.0665 Weekly Zone In my opinion is very likely and will coincide with the 6 Red folder news releases we have this week. - We have alot of news this week and we must be aware during our trading - Bull targets for the week include 1.08125 Daily Resistance Level - Bear Targets for this week include a touch into 1.06245 Daily Support Level No trading today since it is a bank holiday. Less opportunity in a low volume market. At least when it comes to the parameters of my trading plan. Safe Trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Jobs Data 🏗️ / Weekly Level 1.06643 Eurusd Jobs Data was expected to ease over the prior period as the U.S. may have had a smaller amount of job opportunties for it's citizens during the month of May. It turns that the U.S. had more about 160,000 more job openings than was expected. So this is positive for a few reasons - Data was expected to ease over the prior period but we didn't ease and instead the U.S. gained job opportunities during May. - Data was better than expected by a significant margin when compared to previous job openings data releases. This is Optimistic for the U.S. Economy. The impact of the News on price action has initially gone down and dropped from our 4Hr S/R level at 1.07018 Moving Forward I anticipate consolidation or a retracement in price while we hold above 1.06643. If we continue our descent and USD news turns out to be strong enough, our next target is 1.06235. After that, and with NFP data on friday, we may continue to drop to 1.05435. I took a buy at our weekly level 1.0665 when price creased the initial low created during the first 1 minute of news. I have since been stopped out by a small margin before price retraced in my anticipated direction but would take the trade once more given the chance. Weekly Level's are quite strong area's on the chart. Stronger than Daily Level's! They Hold quite frequently as we can observe from the trading earlier in the day. 2 Hours after London open was when we initially tapped into 1.06643 Weekly Level. It coincided with the new 4Hr candle and explains why you can observe no bottom wick on the previous 4Hr candle. Big Players trading on the Higher timeframes are supporting a demand area here. As a scalper I have them to help with my intra-day activities.
by ShrewdCatfx
2
S&P500 - WEEKLY PREVIEW | KW03 |In today's article, we will look at the *S&P500* and its relevant markers for the coming week. > KW 03 = 16.01. - 20.01. > The marks should serve you as orientation for your own analysis. > The "VIOLET" marked ZONES are TARGET RANGES - for possible trades. ! NOTE ! If financial events take place, there is a high probability that through market maker manipulation, the given marks are not respected . > Every Monday, I therefore upload a FX event overview, the respective week, which gives you an insight of the "turbulent" days and times. The cover picture shows an example of a possible trade . > This is one of many possible setups and is not alone in the room. ASSESSMENT This week, the S&P500 will, with great probability, come up against a strong resistance. As can be seen quite nicely from the daily perspective, a downtrend line resistance area is coming towards it. (Red lines + Red colored area). > In addition, important Fibonacci levels and a 4-hour SUPPLY zone are untouched, which for a further upswing, must first be overcome. > My target range for the upward movement is - 4,040 - 4,060 points - in this zone, strong resistance should be expected at the latest. > Of course, this forecast must be supported by the USD (DXY), which would be the driver for a possible sell-off in the S&P500. POSSIBLE MARKET SCENARIOS > THESIS 1: On Monday, we directly see a strong USD = S&P500 immediately sells off. > THESIS 2: On Monday, we continue to see a weakening USD = S&P500 will run into my "target range" and then bounce back. > THESIS 3: On Monday, we see by the new data of W2, another down sell in USD = S&P500 will run into my "target area", conquer it and run up to further spheres. OUTZOOMED "4 HOURS + DAY - INTERVAL" "1 HOUR + 4 HOUR - INTERVAL" ZOOMED IN "4 HOURS + DAY - INTERVAL" "1 HOUR + 4 HOUR - INTERVAL" POSSIBLE SCENARIES „4 HOUR – INTERVAL“ > Let's share our perspectives and views in the comments. > Sharing your point of view allows each of us to improve. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
Does "News" Impact Price Behavior? 🐒We can Observe that After the 1st Quarter of the Year, January-March the price of Eurusd has increased. Now As we near the middle of the second quarter, I can't help but visualize a Breakout. Price is currently sitting at 1.102. So far price has respected the Weekly Level at 1.106. The High for the first quarter was 1.103. We have now spent quite a bit of time at these extreme prices. I can often observe price using News//Data Releases on Lower time frames as a boost. A Boost of momentum in the preceding direction. I can observe 3 Potential News//Data Releases causing and becoming a Catalyst to leave a Large Trading Range. 1. NFP 2. CPI 3. FOMC Interest Rates. Will FOMC provide the Volume? Do we have enough Liquidity? Or may price dip from here back to our 1.086 Weekly S/R Zone before increasing any further? My Bias is Bullish moving into FOMC. Safe Trading Everyone. Not Financial Advice. Educational Purposes Only.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
HTF - GOLD - HAS LOST ITS SHINE?My analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular precious metal "GOLD / XAU" could look like. For this I have carried out a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month - week - day) and thus makes the big picture visible. Normally, all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing. > We traders know that nobody can predict the future, and that's exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations. > If the DXY should rise again, it means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets. > This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture. > I have explained in detail which levels are RELEVANT in the following pages. . table of contents 1st part = INTRODUCTION 2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = Monthly - Time frame = Weekly - Time frame = Dayly - Time frame 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE "INTRODUCTION" After "XAU/USD" formed a double top between 2020-2022, a strong sell-off has been unleashed thereafter. > This sell-off paused in October this year to test the strength of it. > With a subsequent bullish monthly candle, many retail investors now feel on the safe side that new highs will be reached. > Here I do not want to take away the joy, but the big picture does not suggest anything like that. > Once you look at the DXY (USD index) on the higher timeframes, the following sell-off in gold is "indirectly" confirmed. (My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes.) GOLD SAFE HARBOUR . If you follow popular wisdom, GOLD is classified as a safe and reliable haven. SPEAKING LIKE ... > "All that glitters is not gold." > "Talk is silver, silence is gold." > "Much gold, much future." That, the precious metal gold got such a high value awarded - HAD - its reasons. > Inflation protection and security - are definitely the two most associated words with this precious metal. Unfortunately, at the latest, since the year 2021, this no longer seems to apply. > If one compares the loss of inflation and the gain in value of gold, a significant gap can be seen, at which there can no longer be any talk of "inflation compensation". > Gold will therefore no longer live up to its reputation and a rethinking of its value will have to take place in the future. SECOND PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle. > MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level These are divided into > SUMMARY > CHARTS The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way. 1st MONTH – Time frame SUMMARY The trend channel plotted on the chart formed in March|2007 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > Price is in the area below the mean line and had last touched the channel in 2018. > September|2020 the price ran into the mid-line but was not strong enough. This becomes very clear when looking at the moving away middle line despite the "double top". > The trend arc is another resistance, which should be taken into account for a future downward movement. If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at two zones in the chart. > The "SUPPLY" zone is VERY STRONG because it is a RBD (Rally Base Drop). > The "DEMAND" zone is VERY WEAK, as it is a DBD (Drop-Base-Drop). > If we get another rise in the DXY, the drawn "DEMAND" zone will break and the sell-off will continue. The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been proved in past moves (last decades) . > Should the price rise even further, FIB (1) will serve as a Strong Resistance Zone, although the "FIB Zone = 0.75-0.88 - is the Strongest Resistance. (1) > If the sell-off continues, FIB (2) cannot do much in the monthly chart, but if necessary there will be a reaction on the "smaller" time levels. > The FIB (3) = 1.618 level, will resemble a large magnet and in combination with the FIB (4), will trigger a large resistance reaction in the market. Past highs and lows usually serve as resistance / support, of which we have three. > HIGH | 08/20 - Already showed a reaction (double top). > HIGH | 09/11 - Point of Control > LOW | 03/21 - Broken and recaptured Points and levels of interest are in front of us, which have played a strong role for the market since 2011 . > The most significant resistance, represents the plotted - POI (1800 USD), which is still contested at the time of this analysis. > The other POIs have non-negligible resistance and support characteristics and should be kept in mind. CHARTS XAU - Overall picture XAU - Trend lines XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES + Market Structure Break XAU - Fibonacci XAU - POI ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. . 2nd WEEK – Time frame SUMMARY In addition to the already mentioned trend channel, now three more become visible, which may have escaped the one or the other. > The "Purple" trend channel formed at the same time as its big brother (monthly channel) and thus represents a major significance for the market. We are at the middle line of the channel and the market seems to have used it as support. > The "Turquoise" trend channel accompanies us since the last high and has a big say with its many interactions. My guess is that its resistance line will decide whether the sell-off will continue or be broken with confirmation. > The "Earth-colored" trend channel is a small sideways accumulation and accompanies us in this area. Currently, the price has fought its way back into the channel, confirmed it and is now targeting the top of the sideways channel. > The "Orange colored" trend line , has been respected since 2018, 07|2022 broken. The price suggests that the trend line is approaching for a final retest. The additional "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones join the two existing ones and remain untouched. As additional Fibonacci additions, we have: > The 0.88 FIB (1), combined with the levels from the FIB (2). This represents with the 0.88 levels from FIB (2) - two very relevant resistance ranges. > FIB (3) is only valid if the price does not rise further and therefore the input values do not change. Should this be the case, the 0.786 + 0.88 area is the most important to watch out for. CHARTS XAU - Overall picture XAU - Overall picture + Month XAU - Trend Channels + Trend Lines XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES XAU - Fibonacci ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. . 3rd DAY – Time frame SUMMARY The chart shows a falling triangle which has been broken . > As a result, the price has confirmed this break, with a close at the break point. > At this time level, there will be a sell-off, especially if the DXY rises. To give a little comment on the "Supply & Demand" zones: > The upper two "SUPPLY" zones are definitely very strong. 1800 + 1980. > The bottom "DEMAND" zone is very strong, as it is a DBR (Drop-Base-Rally) zone. (ca. 1640 - ca. 1615) > The "DEMAND" zones in between are incidental, will trigger small reactions on the lower time frames, but nothing significant. (ca. 1760 - ca. 1660) CHARTS XAU - Overall picture + Month + Week XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES + Trend Lines THIRD PART CONCLUSION "The central banks, themselves, are behind the gold price manipulation. What should you get out of it?" Run this question through your head and let me know in the comments what you think is more likely. > Another sell-off or a positive gold price for now? In summary, based on technical analysis, there are a few reasons for a weak GOLD price . > If you look at the area between 1,950 USD - 1,840 USD, it almost seems like an arm guarding the upper levels. > To bring down this defense, I think, needs more momentum than what we have and are getting right now. (Christmas, New Year, Chinese New Year) For this reason, I expect a weak gold rate and a strong USD, and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets. > Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT . If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea. Thank you and happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
4
GOLD (XAU/USD): a minimalistic multi-timeframe illustrationTaking a look at the Monthly-timeframe graph, we might observe that the price has heavily rejected the major level of resistance that has been highlighted. Zooming into the Weekly Timeframe, it can be inferred that the price is currently sitting on a previous region of resistance now acting as support. If the key level we are currently sitting on gets penetrated, expect a bloodbath. The bearish price build-up along with a strong USD give us enough confidence that the ongoing downtrend might continue. In case things play out in accordance with our theory and game-plan, we will be closely monitoring the price action for entering short positions and aiming for the price region market on the graphic.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Investroy
21
USD / CHF – ANALYSIS OF THE BIG PICTUREMy analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular forex pair "USD / CHF" could look. > The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent rise. = Why, that I explain after the introduction. The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on USD / CHF, as the whole economy depends on its behavior, and it directly competes in composition. > Meanwhile, this seems to take a run-up, for a final upswing, which could put the currency pair under massive selling pressure. > Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, USD / CHF has arrived at a very strong support, which suggests a rising price. In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you. For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible. Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing. > We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations. > If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets. > This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture. > Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages. Table of contents 1st part = INTRODUCTION 2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = Monthly - Time frame = Weekly - Time frame 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE "INTRODUCTION" After "USD/CHF" formed a top at USD 1.015 in October|2022, a sharp sell-off has been unleashed thereafter. > This sell-off continued until the beginning of February, where we encountered serious support for the first time. > The sell-off was fueled by its base currency, the USD, which also experienced a sell-off. > Since the USD, showed signs of a possible bottom, this was reflected in the pair under consideration. > In recent weeks, we have seen an increasingly weaker sell-off, which I believe suggests a rise. = We have worked off the HTF Fibonacci - 0.786 - and saw a strong reaction. = The volume profile of the last 2-years, supports the current bottom with a strong area. = The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the rise thesis. > Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely. (My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes). SECOND PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle. > MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level These are divided into > SUMMARY > CHARTS The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way. (This also refers to Fibonacci levels.) 1st MONTH – Time frame SUMMARY The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, was formed since 1985 and has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel since then. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > The share price is at the decade-old resistance line and had challenged it over the past months. The trend channel shown in the chart, in earth color, formed since 2008 and directed the sideways movement that has existed since then. > The price is between the middle and support line of the channel. The trend lines shown in the chart, in purple, formed in the 80s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas. > The price bounced the last time in 2015, which was reflected in an extreme reaction. The trend lines drawn in the chart, in earth color, formed in the 90s and turned out to be excellent resistance or support areas. > The price bounced the last time in 2018, which was reflected in an extreme reaction. If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at four "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a Strong movement. > The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement. > The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a strong movement. > The "SUPPLY" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement. The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades). > FIB 1 | will serve as a very strong resistance should the price attempt another run up. > FIB 2 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (LIGHTLY weighted) > FIB 3 | are the possible targets that come into play on another sell-off. (MEDIUM weighted) > FIB 4 | are the possible targets that come into play in the event of a further sell-off. (STRONG weighted) Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market. > The currently most relevant - POIs are | 0.90 & 0.95 | already represented an important brand since the year 2011 and thus currently take a very strong role. > The other POIs are by no means to be neglected and will play a role for the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart). OVERVIEW CURRENTLY RELEVANT CHARTS Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI Overall picture without POIs Overall picture without FIBONACCI ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. . 2nd WEEK – Time frame SUMMARY Besides the already mentioned trend channels + trend lines, others become visible. > These have caused reactions in the chart in the past and should therefore be kept in mind. The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is MEDIUM STRONG = followed a Strong movement + combination with Monthly "DEMAND" zone 1. > The "SUPPLY" zones 1, is WEAK = followed a weak movement. > The "SUPPLY" zones 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement + combination with Monthly "SUPPLY" zone 1. As further Fibonacci additions, we have two more elements: > Both newly drawn elements can be combined with the previously mentioned elements. Lastly, I would like to draw your attention to the "MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK": > These represent relevant resistance areas and reinforce the "TARGET ZONE 1". CHARTS Overall picture Overall picture without FIBONACCI Overall picture with TARGET ZONES THIRD PART CONCLUSION "The market is always right." As far as forecasts and analyses are concerned, everyone gives free rein to their opinion. > Depending on the analyst's past success, he or she is believed to a greater or lesser extent, but only one can always be right. In summary, based on technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a rising USD/CHF rate. > Since the price top in October|2022 - the monthly candles have been dominated by bearish. > A possible break of the support elements is not impossible, but rather unlikely. > The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bullish movement. For this reason, I expect a strong USD/CHF exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets. > Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
USD / JPY – A REBOUND BEFORE FURTHER CORRECTION?My analysis today deals with how the further course of our popular forex pair "USD / JPY" could look like. > The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent correction. = Why, that I explain after the introduction. The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on USD / JPY, as the whole economy depends on its behavior. > Meanwhile, this seems to take run-up, for a final upswing, which could bring the precious metal under massive selling pressure. > Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, SILVER has been somewhat caught at a very strong resistance, which foreshadows a falling price. In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you. For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible. Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing. > We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations. > If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets. > This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture. > Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages. Table of contents 1st part = INTRODUCTION 2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = Monthly - Time frame = Weekly - Time frame 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE "INTRODUCTION" After the "USD/JPY" formed a top at USD 152 in October|2022, a sharp sell-off has been unleashed thereafter. > This sell-off extended until today and could have reached its end. > By could, I mean that there is still room to correct here. The correction can potentially run to 124 USD, where we would encounter a sideways channel. This showed its effect since 1987 and would be a strong support. > The Fibonacci tool confirms us the possible end of the correction, by successfully working through the "golden pocket" (0.618 + 0.65 FIB) = In addition to the sideways channel just mentioned, we are at the center line, of another channel, which led the previous upward movement since the year 2021. > The downward movement is in a downward channel on the smaller time units (daily >) since December|2022 and shows a strong divergence in the daily MACD, which indicates a temporary end of the correction. > Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely. (My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes). SECOND PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle. > MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level These are divided into > SUMMARY > CHARTS The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way. (This also refers to Fibonacci levels.) 1st MONTH – Time frame SUMMARY The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, formed since 2012 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > The price is in the area below the mid-trend line and did not have enough momentum to recapture it when it broke through. The sideways trend channel shown in the chart, in purple, formed since 1987 and represented strong resistance and support areas on the higher time units. > The price is above the channel and could encounter it for the first time at 124 USD. > Should the price touch the level, I expect a strong reaction, in the opposite direction. The trend lines drawn in the chart, in gold, formed in 1990 + 1995 and turned out to be very strong resistance or support areas. > The price bounced twice in the recent upward movement and is meanwhile moving towards the lower trendline. > In addition, we have the blue resistance line, which has been intact since the 80s, but is very unlikely to come into play for the time being. If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at three "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is VERY WEAK = followed a weak movement + previous month tested. > The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a strong movement + has not been tested by the price so far. > The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is VERY STRONG = followed by a Strong sell-off. The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades). > FIB 1 | will serve as resistance should the price attempt another sell-off run. > FIB 2 | are the support areas, for a very strong sell-off. > FIB 3 | are the possible targets, which would be possible in a very strong sell-off. > FIB 3 | are the final upside targets, which would come into play in case of a bounce. The past highs and lows usually serve as resistance/support, one of which we have. > HIGHER HIGH | 1990 > OLD BROKEN HIGH | 1998 > OLD HIGHER HIGH | 2015 Some levels of interest are before us, which in the last years + decades, played a strong role for the market. > The currently most relevant - POI (126 USD) - represents an important mark already since the year 1988 and thus currently occupies a very strong support position. > The future most relevant - POI (135 USD) - represents, like the current POI, an important mark since the year 1987 and will thus occupy a very strong resistance position. > The other POIs are by no means negligible and will play a role in the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart). OVERVIEW CURRENT RELEVANT CHARTS Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI Overall picture without POIs Overall picture without FIBONACCI ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. . 2nd WEEK – Time frame SUMMARY Besides the already mentioned trend channel + trend lines, another trend channel becomes visible. > This led the previous upward movement and already served as a support zone against the sell-off. The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is VERY WEAK = followed a Weak move + previous week already tested. > The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = followed a Strong movement + has not been tested by the price so far. > The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is VERY STRONG = followed a strong sell-off. Smaller time units highs and lows join, the previously named. > OLD HIGHER LOW | 05/2022 > OLD BROKEN HIGHER LOW [08/2022 CHARTS Overall picture Overall picture without FIBONACCI THIRD PART CONCLUSION "Nothing is more expensive than what you get for free." This Japanese proverb caught my eye and reminded me of all the lessons learned, which unexpectedly entered my life. > They materialized through people, animals or other encounters, and to this day they represent the greatest value in my life. > I refer to it, because everyone in this fast-moving time, usually overlooks / does not consciously perceive the most important moments and lessons. In summary, based on technical analysis, there are reasons for a rising "USD / JPY" rate. > Since the price top in October|2022 - the monthly candles were dominated by bearish. > That this pattern is broken is possible, but as noted in the introduction, there are outstanding "key areas", which advocate a further sell-off. > The divergence in the daily MACD, suggests a bullish move. > The USD could get a strong impulse, which would allow a bullish move in this pair. For this reason, I assume a strong "USD/JPY" rate + a weak JPY and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets. > Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG . If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
4
Bitcoin is Creating Lower Highs but the Lows are Equal 🕵️Bitcoin is rejecting Higher Prices and creating Lower Highs. BTC is simultaneously holding a flat support level at 26,600 4Hr level as we can observe here. Price is squeezing downwards but the bottom is remaining flat at our 26,600 4Hr level. Soon this pressure may burst up or down and I'd bet on more downside. This Price action/Multi-timeframe analysis details a bearish market. Bearish Market Structure has Lower Lows and Lower Highs. Bullish market Strucutre has Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The Weekly timeframe is printing multiple bear candles. We are also creating back to back descending wicks on the Daily timeframe. This denotes a market that is in momentum. Looking for lower prices here. Will Update. Safe Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ShrewdCatfx