NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup (02-Dec-2024)NSE:NIFTY
Institutional Framework : Expansion Phase
Institutional Bias : Bullish (Nifty Futures)
Institutional Price Delivery : IRL to ERL (MMXM Buy model)
Institutional Reference Points :
Sell Side Liquidity (MT1)
Inverse FVG(D1)
Bullish Mitigation(H4)
Bullish Breaker (M15)
Sell Side Liquidity(M15)
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Don't Be Too Quick To Short The DollarYes, DXY closed with a strong weekly bearish engulfing candle, in fact, the first bearish candle close in 2 months. While this is a strong indicator of what's been a highly anticipated correction lower, if price action on the daily continues to trade higher aggressively, then we may see a short term rally before price sell's off.
Despite this uncertainty, I see plenty of opportunity early in the week across the board. Here's how I'm positioned after Monday's development:
DXY - LONG
EURUSD - SHORT
USDJPY - LONG
GBPJPY - SHORT
AUDUSD - NEUTRAL
YOUR GUIDE TO CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS! What's up guys it's been a while! I know it's the holiday seasons, and that's the best time of year for me. Here is a wonderful present for you all, as a token of my appreciation. Thankful for the supportive and hateful people, not equally of course! 🤣 Anyways.... the things you must keep in mind when utilizing candlestick analysis in your trading are the following, Gs:
1) Understanding the anatomy of a candlestick - images.ctfassets.net
2) Candlestick color - The color of the candles individually matter in structure but also together they tell a story.... three inside down candle stick pattern at a lower high point in market structure for example.
3) Size of the candle - size of candle does matter as it indicates how volatile and wide reaching the market can be that day based on this data.
4) Volume - This one is obvious, Gs.
5) Timeframe of candlesticks being observed - understand candlesticks on higher timeframe hold more weight so they're more valid. (1h+) in consolidated structure on higher timeframe, lower timeframe candlestick structure is what you need to identify breakouts that'll be big on HTF.
6) Candlestick patterns - content.stockstotrade.com
7) Length of wicks on the candles - This is huge because wicks are a direct indication of exhaustion, which BASICALLY is buyer or seller weakness which directly aids me in basically every trade when finding that sniper entry i'm known for! Do not sleep on this step (or any, for that matter, I don't make these for FUN.)
8) Support/Resistance levels - I recommend going to lower time frames in these areas and using steps 2, 3, 6 mixed with timeframe correlation to make a sniper entry. GOODLUCK Gs!
Again... $NQ hits 4x Asian Session Standard Deviation *smc*I made a tutorial not long ago that this setup happens mroe often than not. So I'm posting a second setup to prove my case. What's the difference? The entrance will depend on previous buy/sell models and if price hits the right order block without needing to go after sell side liquidity the higher the entry (or sell side, the lower the entry)... in this case is the higher. Because below is a lot of price action and the bottom hits just below the asian session at a breaker. Exit will head toward liquidity. On the 4 hr chart the liquidity point is 21,190.
4HR HART
I hope these tutorials will help you continue to keep finding these setups.
Happy Trading
CME_MINI:NQ1!
BLACKBULL:NAS100
CAPITALCOM:US100
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Technical Analysis
Monthly Chart:
Since January 2023, the DXY has been moving within a range. The upper boundary of this range was marked by the 107.348 level, which has now been cleared. This breach of the previous high suggests that liquidity above the range has been taken, signaling the potential for a downside move. Historically, such liquidity grabs often precede significant reversals, aligning with the current bearish setup.
Daily Chart:
On the daily timeframe, the DXY displayed a sharp decline after taking out its last significant high. This aggressive sell-off has formed a strong bearish pattern, indicating a potential continuation to the downside. The presence of strong bearish momentum highlights sellers' dominance in the current market conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook initiated by the liquidity grab on the monthly chart.
Price Targets:
Short-Term Target: A move toward 104.636 is expected as the DXY continues its bearish momentum, which aligns with immediate support and prior structural lows.
Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If the bearish trajectory persists, the DXY could reach the 101.917 level, which aligns with a significant support zone from previous price action. This target reflects the potential for extended downside in a broader bearish scenario.
Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve and Interest Rates:
Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve highlight concerns about continuing rate cuts due to the potential risks they pose to inflation. The Fed has signaled that further rate reductions would only be considered if both the labor market weakens and inflation continues to decline. However, these two factors are closely intertwined.
Labor Market Conditions:
Historically, the months of November and December exhibit strong employment trends due to holiday hiring. This seasonality reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, as a robust labor market typically does not align with the conditions necessary for easing monetary policy.
Inflation Outlook:
For the Fed to proceed with aggressive rate cuts, inflation figures would need to remain stable or show further declines. If unemployment rises and inflation remains under control, the Fed may have room for another round of cuts. Such a scenario would support a long-term bearish outlook for the DXY, as lower interest rates reduce demand for the U.S. dollar.
Summary and Outlook
Technically, the DXY is positioned for further downside following the liquidity grab above the 107.348 level and the subsequent bearish pattern on the daily chart. Fundamentally, while seasonal strength in the labor market may delay immediate bearish moves, the broader macroeconomic context suggests that eventual rate cuts are likely.
Key factors to monitor include:
Unemployment data in the coming months.
Inflation trends to confirm stability or further declines.
Any changes in the Fed’s tone regarding rate policy.
Price Expectations:
In the short term, we could see the DXY reach 104.636, reflecting a retracement toward a key support zone.
In the medium to long term, the DXY is likely to target 101.917, aligning with major support from prior price structures and further confirming the bearish outlook.
If unemployment begins to rise and inflation remains under control, these targets become even more probable, reinforcing the alignment between technical and fundamental factors.
NZDUSD LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 7.45
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King
NovoCure Limited (NVCR) to rally 100% ??** short term forecast, days and weeks ahead **
On the above 10 day chart price action has crashed 95% since support failed. Today sellers are trying to push that correction to 100%, are they right?
Unlikely.
1) Price action (not visible on LOG) and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Support on past resistance confirms.
3) Trend reversal. Higher lows print.
4) Bull flag confirmation forecasting a 100% move to mid 30’s.
Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: you decide
Timeframe for long: Yesterday
Return: 100%
Stop loss: Will say elsewhere
NZDJPY ENTRY TRADEOn this Pair, we are anticipating for a BUY REVERSAL, as the JPY has shown us an indication for a WEAKNESS, also on the NZDJPY, price is around a strong DEMAND+ we have a STRONG NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR, we also have a confluence on the LTF as a back-up to the entry trade + a liquid sweep,so if this matches with your Trade Idea, you can join us. Thank You, Update will be given in the UPDATE session.
S&P: Weekly Recap and OutlookLast week, the market opened with a gap up that was quickly filled, after which price hovered near the previous all-time high. Bolstered by new economic data, which delivered no negative surprises, bulls pushed the price out of the trading range, establishing a new all-time high.
While this is undoubtedly a positive development that reinforces the bullish thesis, a few warning signs warrant closer attention:
1. Low Breakout Volume: The breakout occurred on significantly low volume. While volume is less critical in indices and ETFs compared to individual stocks, observing below-average volume during such an important event raises concerns about the breakout’s sustainability.
2. Relative Weakness in the Tech Sector (XLK): This deviation signals hesitancy among growth investors, which could potentially ripple through to other market participants.
Additionally, concerns highlighted in my previous review remain unresolved and continue to be relevant.
At this stage, there is no concrete evidence of a sentiment shift or technical signals pointing to a broad trend reversal. However, there is a growing impression that the rally may be nearing temporary exhaustion, which could lead to a significant pullback.
Key Focus for the Upcoming Week
Investors will be closely watching the employment data, which has already hinted at labor market weakness. If new data further support this trend, it could heighten bearish sentiment.
Price action this week will likely provide important clues:
• Bullish Confirmation: If the breakout is followed by a swift continuation, this will confirm buyers’ conviction and overall market strength.
• Bearish Signals: Conversely, if the price pulls back below 600 or oscillates indecisively around this level, it may signal uncertainty among buyers, creating an opportunity for short sellers to capitalize.
GBPUSD Live Week 49 Swing ZonesWeek 48 ended with 20pp, with price moving in fairly the predicted direction.
Week 49 Sz is as highlighted 210-160, price is currently trending below having failed to bounce off.
Will be looking @ calculated lower levels of 814 and 616, for bounce back up.
As always Price action determines trades.
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat?
A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late!
Sometimes, you just have to let go, right?
Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example.
International Hotels Group (IHG)
Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad.
Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔
We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines.
Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade.
To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being.
This helps define the trade risk very well.
If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out.
To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down !
From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too.
That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750).
So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation?
The following is a way to have:
An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters
A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working
A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more)
Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk
Entry Points and Stops
9000 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: 8600 GBX.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Risk: £1000.
9200 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: 8800 GBX.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Risk: £1000.
9400 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Initial Risk: £1000.
Profit Targets
First Position (9000):
Gain: 1000 points.
Profit: £2500.
Second Position (9200):
Gain: 800 points.
Profit: £2000.
Third Position (9400):
Trailing Stop Profit Example:
10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500.
11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more.
Summary
Total Risk: £3000.
Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500.
Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
Long trade
15min Tf overview
Pair: ETH/USD (Ethereum vs. USD)
Date & Time: Saturday, November 30, 2024,
at 2:00 PM
During the New York PM session.
4H Timeframe structure
15Min Entry
Trade Direction: Buy-side
Reason:
Expecting the price to rise after identifying bullish momentum
and demand zone confirmation
Long trade
1Hr TF
Buyside trade
Tokyo Session PM
10.15 pm
Sat 30th Nov 24
5min TF entry
Entry 96263.5
Profit level 98787.5 (2.62%)
Stop level 96083.0 (0.19%)
RR 13.28
Potential
Profit level 100006.5 (3.89%)
RR 7.53
Reason: Observation of price action since Friday 29th Nov 24, seems to be indicative of buyside directional bias at this time.
XAUUSD - Mining in China Vs GoldGold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its Neroli channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the limited supply and sell within that range with the appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the gold neroli movement will provide us with the next opportunity to buy it.
Chinese officials have announced the discovery of a huge deposit of high-quality gold ore, estimated to be worth around $83 billion, and may be the largest known deposit of the precious metal in the world.
Chinese scientists have discovered a "supergiant" deposit of high-quality gold ore near some of the country's existing gold mines. This massive deposit, which could be the largest single reservoir of this precious metal remaining anywhere on Earth, is worth billions of dollars.
Representatives of the Geological Bureau of Hunan Province (GBHP) told Chinese state media on November 20 that the new deposits were discovered in the Wangu gold field in northeastern Hunan province. Workers identified more than 40 gold veins containing about 330 tons of gold down to a depth of 6,600 feet (2,000 meters). However, using 3D computer models, mining experts have predicted that as much as 1,100 tons of gold – roughly eight times the weight of the Statue of Liberty – may be hidden as deep as 9,800 feet (3,000 meters). If true, the total reserves are likely to be worth about 600 billion yuan ($83 billion).
Mark Chandler, referring to the poor performance of gold after the recent drop, said: "The price of gold has not yet recovered even half of its decline and remains below the level of $2,663.40. If the U.S. employment report at the end of next week is stronger than expected (with around 200,000 new jobs forecast), speculation about a Fed rate cut in December is likely to ease. This can help strengthen the dollar and interest rates. However, US policies that threaten to derail the international order have encouraged some foreign central banks to continue hoarding more gold.
Employment data will be the centerpiece of the economic calendar next week and is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of markets. This set of reports includes JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the key nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Each of these reports can provide clues about the state of the labor market and the Federal Reserve's future decisions.
Along with these employment data, ISM purchasing managers' indicators are also in the focus of traders' attention. The index of the production sector is published on Monday and the index of the service sector is published on Wednesday. Additionally, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index, an important measure of economic sentiment and consumer purchasing power, will be released on Friday.
Wednesday will be a key opportunity for markets to hear comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ahead of the Federal Reserve's media silence. Powell is scheduled to participate in a moderated conversation at the New York Times DealBook, an event that is likely to provide clues about the Fed's future policy.
EURUSD H1 02/12/2024 - SELL below 1.04850 OR BUY above 1.05750Overview of EUR/USD Price Action
The EUR/USD pair is trading in a consolidation zone between 1.04950 (support) and 1.05250 (resistance), as seen on the H1 chart.
Momentum indicators like the RSI (currently around 30-40 on H1) and Stochastic Oscillator suggest that the pair is oversold but lacks a clear directional trend.
The MACD shows bearish momentum weakening, indicating potential for a reversal if resistance is broken, while the Average True Range (ATR) indicates low volatility.
This creates the perfect scenario for breakout trades in both directions, depending on whether the market breaches the consolidation zone.
Buy Stop Setup: Bullish Breakout Case
Resistance Level at 1.05250: This zone has acted as a ceiling for the pair during the consolidation phase. A break above this level signals renewed buying pressure.
Entry Level: Placing the Buy Stop at 1.05300, slightly above the resistance, ensures confirmation of a bullish breakout.
Take-Profit Target: The next key level is around 1.05750, derived from:
The previous monthly high at 1.05790.
Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the previous bearish leg.
Stop-Loss: Setting it at 1.05100, just below the breakout point, protects against false breakouts.
Rationale for a Buy Trade:
A breach above 1.05250 will invalidate the current bearish trend on H1 and confirm short-term bullish momentum.
This move aligns with possible USD weakness in the upcoming sessions due to softening fundamentals (e.g., dovish Fed sentiment or weaker US data, if relevant).
Sell Stop Setup: Bearish Breakout Case
Support Level at 1.04950: This level has provided solid support for the pair recently. A breakdown below this level signals bearish continuation.
Entry Level: Placing the Sell Stop at 1.04850, slightly below support, ensures entry only after confirmation of bearish pressure.
Take-Profit Target: The next target is around 1.04450, derived from:
Fibonacci 161.8% extension of the recent correction.
Psychological round number support at 1.04500.
Stop-Loss: Setting it at 1.05050, just above the breakout level, limits risk exposure from potential pullbacks.
Rationale for a Sell Trade:
A breakdown below 1.04950 signals bearish continuation, possibly targeting the lows seen earlier in November.
This move aligns with recent USD strength and market sentiment favoring safe-haven currencies.
Technical Indicators Supporting the Setup
RSI: On both M30 and H1 timeframes, the RSI hovers near oversold levels, showing a lack of momentum but creating potential for a breakout in either direction.
Stochastic Oscillator: Shows the market is at extremes, either overbought or oversold, adding further credence to the possibility of a directional move.
MACD Divergence: The MACD histogram on H1 is attempting to flatten, suggesting the bearish momentum is waning and that price could either consolidate further or reverse to the upside.
Ichimoku Cloud: The H1 chart shows price is trading below the cloud, indicating a bearish bias. However, price action is close to breaking out, supporting both trade scenarios.
Market Sentiment & Fundamental Factors
Dollar Index (DXY): A closely watched driver of EUR/USD, the DXY has been showing signs of indecision in recent sessions. Any weakening of the dollar could trigger the bullish breakout, while dollar strength supports the bearish case.
XAU/USD 02 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low.
A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds.
Note:
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
Silver- Could it drop to 28?In my previous analysis of silver, I mentioned the potential for prices to drop below the significant $30 level. This scenario unfolded as expected, with prices dipping to $29.66 before reversing and once again hovering around the $30 mark. This area continues to act as a pivotal point for market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the outlook remains bearish as long as the $31.20 resistance level holds. This level serves as a key threshold, and until it is breached, the strategy should focus on selling into rallies.
A decisive break below the $30 level could pave the way for a move toward the next major support around $28. Such a development would align with my broader bearish view when it comes to precious metals
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of the bottom of the ascending channel, you can look for positions to sell Nasdaq to the 20500 target. Nasdaq buying positions will be after breaking the resistance and maintaining the ascending channel.
Following the extended Thanksgiving weekend, financial markets had an opportunity to process a wide array of data and developments. Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month boosted the markets, as investors anticipated that his promises to cut taxes and ease regulations would enhance corporate profitability. However, Trump’s proposals to impose tariffs on key trading partners were largely overlooked by stock market traders, although certain sectors, such as the automotive industry, experienced adverse effects.
Susannah Streeter, Head of Money Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, stated, “There is still considerable volatility, and I think this stems from the belief that the potentially damaging impact of Trump’s tariffs may not materialize.”
For equity investors, 2024 has been unexpectedly favorable, with the S&P 500 on track for one of its best annual performances in history. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have risen by more than 20%, while Nvidia’s stock has tripled in value.
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) last month dropped to its lowest level in a year and has indicated contraction for nearly two consecutive years. Despite the discouraging outlook it provides for the manufacturing sector, optimism remains regarding future economic activity, especially with the beginning of an easing cycle and the continued reduction in interest rates and borrowing costs.
In contrast, the ISM Services Index for October reached 56.0, marking the strongest growth since the summer of 2022 Within this index, the employment component rose by nearly five points to 53.0. Steady consumer demand has been a key driver supporting the services sector. This week, the release of ISM Services PMI data will be closely monitored to determine whether persistent consumer demand and favorable labor market conditions can further stabilize and sustain growth in this sector.
Additionally, the impacts of hurricanes Helen and Milton, along with widespread strikes, led to a modest increase of just 12,000 jobs in the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for October. This report was cautiously interpreted as a clear sign of gradual cooling and weakening in the labor market.
Beyond the NFP data, other indicators such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and average hourly earnings will also be critical. Together, these data points could guide the Federal Reserve’s decision on a potential interest rate cut in December. While the labor market remains relatively stable, evident signs of gradual declines in employment and wage growth are becoming increasingly apparent.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin continue to rise?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the downtrend channel to fail.
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. This path will continue until the bottom of the channel and the specified support range.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
According to a report by Fox Business, informed sources have indicated that the new U.S administration might grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority to oversee certain digital assets. The CFTC’s expanded role could include regulating cryptocurrency exchanges and cash markets tied to digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which are categorized as commodities. These changes could diminish the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) influence in this sector.
Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman and a staunch crypto critic, has supported granting CFTC more authority over Bitcoin, deeming it a commercial commodity. In March, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against the crypto exchange KuCoin, also classifying Ethereum as a commodity.
As of November 2024, MicroStrategy owns over 380,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $31.6 billion, accounting for nearly 2% of the total global supply. This Virginia-based software intelligence company first began purchasing Bitcoin in 2020 and has since expanded its holdings to 15 times those of its closest corporate competitor, Marathon Digital.
Tesla, which invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in February 2024, ranks fourth among public companies in Bitcoin ownership. Around the same time, Tesla also started accepting Bitcoin as payment for its vehicles.
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has proposed leasing the country’s 170 volcanoes to Bitcoin miners, granting them access to the geothermal energy.
Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, has forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could reach $740,000 by April 2028 based on historical trends. Morehead tied this projection to the election of Donald Trump as a pro-crypto U.S. president and a Congress supportive of digital assets.
He also highlighted that only 5% of the global financial wealth is invested in blockchain-related assets, suggesting significant growth potential for Bitcoin. In his letter, he wrote, “Even after 11 years, Bitcoin is still like a seed sprouting in the soil.” He added that the regulatory challenges faced by blockchain over the past 15 years have now transformed into golden opportunities.
This optimistic outlook aligns with Pantera Capital’s Bitcoin fund, which has delivered strong performance. Launched in 2013, the fund has achieved a 131,000% return over 11 years, excluding fees, primarily due to Bitcoin’s 1,000-fold price increase since the fund purchased it at $74 per BTC.
Morehead emphasized that “it’s not too late to buy Bitcoin.” He added, “Some investors may think that Bitcoin’s doubling this year means they missed the opportunity, but this is a flawed mindset.”
Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) sparked a debate about meme coins in the crypto space. In a tweet, he criticized meme coins, stating, “I’m not against memes, but meme coins have gotten a bit bizarre. Let’s build real applications using blockchain.”
Meanwhile, Hong Kong has proposed tax exemptions for cryptocurrency activities, aiming to compete with Singapore as a leading financial hub and attract major investors and asset managers. According to the Financial Times, the exemptions cover profits from digital assets, private credits, overseas properties, and carbon credits.
Patrick Yip from Deloitte China noted that this initiative could bolster Hong Kong’s financial industry as family offices in the city allocate up to 20% of their portfolios to digital assets.
During the trading week of November 25–29, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $138 million in capital outflows after seven consecutive weeks of inflows.
Performance of the top-traded ETFs on Friday:
• Total: $320 million
• BlackRock: $137 million
• Fidelity:
Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Flag Forming Amid Choppy RecoveryAfter Monday's significant drop, the price of gold began a correction yesterday, reaching my first resistance zone at 2640 before resuming its decline.
However, gold found support around 2620 and started recovering again. The price action now appears to be forming a bearish continuation flag, suggesting that the next major move could be another downturn.
In the meantime, gold may continue to rise in a choppy fashion toward the next key level at 2660.
My strategy is to sell rallies near this zone, targeting a drop to 2590 while monitoring the newly established support at 2620.
XRPUSD on the Rise: Positioning for Profits with X1X2 AnalysisXRPUSD is currently positioned for a bullish breakout, and I’m excited to share my analysis using the X1X2 methodology to capture potential long opportunities.
In my approach, I will leverage probabilities to strategically get positioned for long entries.
Key Fundamentals Supporting the Bullish Bias
Several fundamental factors are contributing to this bullish outlook:
- Legal Clarity: Recent developments in regulatory clarity surrounding cryptocurrencies are fostering a more favorable environment for XRP, which is crucial as it aims to expand its use case in cross-border payments.
- Increased Adoption: There’s growing interest from institutional investors and partnerships that enhance XRP's utility within the financial ecosystem.
- Market Sentiment: The overall market is experiencing a resurgence, with Bitcoin's recent price action influencing altcoins positively, including XRP.
With the combination of technical analysis and supportive fundamentals, there’s a compelling case for entering long positions.
Let’s stay informed and ready to capitalize on the opportunities ahead!
Feel free to share your thoughts or questions below!
1M:
2W:
4H:
P.S. If you have any questions about how I trade probabilities with the overall market direction, feel free to reach out.