Get started

Model

Herbalife, back in the trash where it belongsThe company has received growth from the hopeful and ignorant in the last few decades. The business model is an example of what's wrong with our society. Finally, my indicators are pointing towards a short and I have been waiting for this for a long time. This crossed over on the 30week which is normally bullish for me but the 30 week has not started curving up. If you look at good stocks, you can see they cross over and then the average curves up with price .It had a stock split, seems like this is a timebomb over stocks that have actual fundamental potential. The macd and RSI are pointing this stock up though because they are starting to get centered out...watch it very carefully. If volume does not come in and this continues to drop, crossing the 30 week, its going to take a shit. If volume comes in and price goes up, the trash will continue to get carried up for a while longer. Thanks for reading, let me know what you think.
NYSE:HLFShort
by eneakume
Candidate Bottom?As you can see in the above chart the situation is still uncertain, after a bottom done on the second support line of my Kama indicator (using as volatility factor 20 instead of 10) this market has had a violent reaction from the support. The situation for me remains flat waiting for btcusd to return above 11 thousand dollars confirming an upward reversal. If a long term low is in, i've to admit that it looks a bit high to me compared to where the support lines of my bitcoin price model version 1.1 are located.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn30297
3
Bitcoin Price Model v1.1I have revised the coefficients of the formulas used to calculate the top and bottoms in the two lines of this model: Fair Price Line and Top Line that you already know. Since someone asked me if this model is reliable or not, I decided to include the error bands lines in the indicator. For the calculation of the Top line the error is significant because I used only 3 points, we have only 3 significant tops for the calculation and for now it's impossible to do better then this. Putting theory into practice, you can evaluate to open a long term trade when price is within the error bands and use as confirmation classic TA tools (oscillators, trend lines, etc. ..) as stop loss it could be a smart idea to use the lower line with 95% confidence because if bitcoin goes below this lower error line then there would be something fundamentally wrong in the model and it would be wise to apply a stop loss. I've removed the experimental GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model) from this new 1.1 version to keep things simple, GMM model is still available with the old version. From now on i don't think i'll change this indicator again, it'll remain as is for the next 12/24 months and updated only if there will be new important top/bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn30297
2
Some considerations on my bitcoin model indicatorIf you want to see this chart use the ticker BNC:BLX, weekly timeframe and apply to the chart my last updated indicator "My Bitcoin Price Model v1.0". As i said in my previous published idea i've found that bitcoin follows 2 gaussian PDF ( probability density function ) mixed togheter or GMM (gaussian mixture model). In this chart you can see the first one which characterizes bitcoin when big whales or manipulators aren't inflating the price. Bitcoin price follows the centerline of the PDF never exceeding the upper/lower third deviation line as it should be when there is strong homogeneity in market participants ability to move the market . This is what i think at the moment, the price right now is above the 1st PDF third positive deviation line so i've to conclude that big hands are sustaining the prices after initially moved the quote from the fair price up to the mainline of the 2nd PDF (turn it on from indicator settings and look by yourself). BTW there is not much difference from the 2nd PDF price levels and the overall GMM model (look by yourself turning on both PDF levels). Here you can see a pic of the 1st PDF plotted on the chart: btctrading.files.wordpress.com If you want to better understand what I'm saying I strongly recommend you to take some time to learn Gaussian probability functions on wikipedia. Ask me anything here or on Twitter! Softwware used is Stastistica v12 (2014) from StatSoft.
BNC:BLXLong
by UnknownUnicorn30297
2
Bitcoin Price Model v1.0 updated lines (read carefully below)Analyzing the difference between the Bitcoin price and my FairPriceLine (a price regression of the most important bitcoin bottoms) , I found that the distribution of the price follows two probability distributions (i used the GMM or GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODEL), one when the market is calm with very low levels of price deviations and the other distribution when the market tends to be overvalued with larger price movements. I ditched the previous attempt using Johnson SB distribution function. For now, you can only see the COMBINED distribution of the two along with 3 levels of price deviations, 3 above and 3 below the central average of the distribution. You can however, by acting in the indicator settings, turn off these levels and put back the previous ones (FairPriceLine, Midline and TopLine) . The 1st negative price deviation is almost identical to my FairPriceLine, the second and third negative price deviation has never been tested by this market that is fundamentally bullish. The Mean Line is similar to the previous MidLine that has been obtained doing a price regression of all bitcoin historical data since July 2010. The TopLine just moves between the third positive deviation line and the second one. Next step is to add the possibility to plot each DISTRIBUTION PRICE DEVIATION LEVELS individually and evaluate them.
BNC:BLXLong
by UnknownUnicorn30297
3
Could ECM serve a purpose for the Crypto Market?Hi there, i'm sorry to say but i can't give any substantial input because Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is far beyond my Kung Fu and a lot of precious content is behind a pay-wall. I would like to know if there is anyone here willing to share his experience and knowledge about ECM and whether there are chances e.g. to build correlations and thus indirectly make a use of ECM for the crypto market or not. Or whatever purpose it might serve. All i can say is that ECM is based on Pi which is, like fractals and fibonacci numbers, one of the gifts from mother nature we can use to analyze charts. To get a comprehensive overview on ECM and it's inventor Martin Armstrong i recommend watching the documentary "The Forecaster". After watching it, i felt like i just faced awesomeness. (: You might hate him, you might love him. It doesn't matter here. ECM adds another view to complete the picture as a whole. This is the only thing that should matter. I have added USDJPY to show how nicely a price might follow ECM cycles. I'm looking forward to interesting comments. Sincerely Source: Economic Confidence Model – When One Nation Peaks Another Bottoms
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by EduardZimmermann
7
TSLA Cup and Handle 2.0In the end of August of 2014, Tesla completed the formation of a cup with a short handle, and within a few trading sessions, catalysts such as the China Unicom charger deal and Stifel's upgrade of TSLA with a price target of $400 caused the stock to break out and confirm the pattern. A similar cup and short handle has formed today ahead of the Model X reveal. TSLA CEO Elon Musk said in the last quarterly call that Model X configurations will be done in "Early July", which by Tesla time, is actually "Late July".
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by 32no
4
[Tesla] Attractive bet for quarterly announcementPretty attractive bet for quarterly announcement in 3 days if the price isn't pumped beyond US $235 by then. Catalyst: -The upcoming Tesla Model X by early 2015 -More details on the gigafactory battery partnership with Panasonic (Confirmed) >>> Big loss will continue due to the cost of the land and building, Panasonic will cover the cost of the machinery. -QoQ/YoY increase in the sales of Model S -Europe & China expansion plans Bears: -Quarterly loss is still expected, it depends if it able to beat the -0.24 estimate with a lower loss -"Anal"-yst bullcrap on car fire again ------------------------------------- Entry: $230 Stop loss: $221 Take Profit: 255
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by LastBattle
1