Metals
XAU/USD : Bullish or Bearish? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we observed that gold continued its upward movement as expected yesterday, reaching the $2652 level before facing a correction. Currently, gold is trading around the $2640 level.
- Bullish Scenario: If the price stabilizes above $2640, we can anticipate further growth with $2660 as the first target.
- Bearish Scenario: If it fails to hold above this level, a move toward $2623 is very likely.
This analysis will be updated as the situation develops!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Gold "trembling" waiting for US employment dataGold (XAU/USD) continued to fluctuate in a narrow range on Thursday morning, supported by geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade war concerns and political instability in France and South Korea. A weak US dollar also contributed to keeping gold prices high.
However, expectations of the Fed maintaining a tight monetary policy, along with a slight increase in US bond yields, are limiting gold's upside. Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell kept investors cautious, waiting for the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
Personal opinion:
This week’s break below the multi-day ascending channel signals bearish momentum, but neutral oscillators on the daily/4-hour charts suggest waiting for a break below the $2,630 support before positioning for further losses. A subsequent decline could drag prices toward $2,622-$2,621 and potentially to $2,600.
On the upside, $2,655 remains the immediate hurdle, followed by $2,666. A sustained move above $2,678 could pave the way toward the $2,700 mark, but strong resistance around $2,721-$2,722 might cap gains. A decisive break beyond this level could shift the trend in favor of buyers and trigger meaningful upside momentum.
Pay attention to price range:
BUY ZONE: 2640 - 2638
SL: 2633
BUY ZONE: 2634 - 2632
SL: 2627
SELL ZONE: 2655 - 2657
SL: 2662
Analysis and SignalsGold daily chart formed a bottoming out and rebounded to close higher, the structure stood above the MA10 daily moving average of 2647, but the moving average was still flat, and the RSI indicator mid-axis position was adjusted. The short-term four-hour chart is still adjusting within the Bollinger Band channel, the upper track is 2657/60, the lower track is 2638/35, the Asian session price 2648 is above the middle track 43, and the RSI indicator is above the mid-axis. Let's look at the strength of the decline first!
Gold is still oscillating now. When the NFP data is released on Friday, gold may break through the oscillation range, and then wait for the trend to be clear before continuing to follow up. Now it is still oscillating in a large range, and the rebound high will continue to be short.
Gold continued to oscillate in 1 hour. Gold rebounded and was blocked many times. Moreover, the positive news of gold ADP and risk aversion did not prompt gold to continue to rise, so it was still difficult to rise. Gold was under pressure at the 2657 line in the US session, and it continued to be short at highs below 2657 in the Asian session.
First support: 2638, second support: 2625, third support: 2610
First resistance: 2656, second resistance: 2666, third resistance: 2678
Trading strategy:
First look at the range of 2638near~2656near, and then trade in line with the trend after the breakthrough
World gold prices increasedSpeaking in an interview with the press hosted by the New York Times yesterday, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (FED) - Jerome Powell - said the US economy is now stronger than when the FED started cutting interest rates in September.
According to Mr. Powell, the positive news is that the FED can be more careful in setting neutral interest rates - interest rates that do not promote or inhibit growth. However, the FED Chairman did not directly mention the FED's policy direction at the meeting from December 17 to 18. However, some analysts believe that the FED's interest rate reduction process may slow down.
Gold prices often react sensitively to changes in the FED's interest rate policy. When interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold - a non-interest-bearing asset - also decreases, increasing the appeal of gold as an investment channel. Conversely, if the Fed slows down in reducing interest rates or keeps interest rates at a higher level than expected, this could reduce demand for gold, leading to downward pressure on prices.
🔥 OANDA:XAUUSD BUY 2643 - 2645🔥
💵 TP1: 2655
💵 TP2: 2665
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2637
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Prolonged accumulation, GOLD may need impact from NFP dataOn the Asian market on Thursday (December 5), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintained a moderate decrease during the day, gold prices are currently down to about 2,645 USD/ounce as of the time this article was completed.
In terms of economic data on Wednesday, data from the ADP Research Institute and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab showed that the number of private sector jobs in the United States increased by 146,000 in November, less than expected. This number is expected to be 163,000.
The ADP report shows mixed job growth across industries. The education, health care and construction sectors led the gains, while manufacturing employment had its biggest decline in more than a year. Hiring is also lower in the financial services and entertainment industries, according to data from the ADP Research Institute.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in an exclusive interview with the "DealBook Summit" hosted by the New York Times on Wednesday. On monetary policy, he said at the meeting that policymakers may remain cautious about cutting interest rates further.
Regarding the US economy, Powell said the current situation is "very good" with falling inflation and relatively low unemployment. Powell noted that the US economy was stronger than expected in September, allowing the Fed to be more cautious in cutting interest rates.
Powell said that although inflation has not yet fully returned to the Fed's 2% target, there is no reason the economy cannot continue to grow.
New news of a ceasefire in the Middle East has affected the safe-haven asset OANDA:XAUUSD
Israel has made a new proposal to Hamas regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, including a request to release some of the remaining 100 people detained by Hamas, Axios News reported this morning (Thursday).
Israeli officials say Israel hopes the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a ceasefire in Lebanon and pressure from US President-elect Donald Trump will create an opportunity to resume negotiations that have been deadlocked for three months. recently.
According to the report, Israeli officials revealed that the updated agreement framework mentioned above was reached after a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and several senior ministers and heads of security agencies on the 1st of this month. . The new plan is similar to the principles discussed previously, but has some adjustments and is subject to adjustment and negotiation.
Israeli officials say Hamas has shown more flexibility and begun implementing parts of the agreement.
There are still 100 hostages being held in Gaza, including 7 Americans. The Israel Defense Forces believe that between 40 and 50 hostages are still alive.
Gold is a risk-on haven asset, so if the market has less risk of conflict or geopolitical tensions it will become less attractive.
Next event
The next big event will be the November US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
Surveys show US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 214,000 in November, up from 12,000 in October.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, the accumulation phase of gold prices continues to last with increasingly narrower amplitudes without any sudden waves to create a short-term trend.
With the current position, it is difficult to distinguish which possibility gold is leaning more towards compared to yesterday's trading day. With price activity moving around the EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.618% and the technical point of 2,644USD. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also at 50, not going above or below this level. Taken together with the current position, gold is still neutral in the medium and short term.
Meanwhile, a short-term bearish cycle has the opportunity to open if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level then the target level is about 2,606 USD in the short term, more than 2,600 USD.
During the day, gold is currently in a neutral position, but in the long term, the falling price channel is still the main trend and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,663USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2681 - 2679⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2685
→Take Profit 1 2674
↨
→Take Profit 2 2669
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
→Take Profit 1 2606
↨
→Take Profit 2 2611
XAUUSD need to be careful Liquidity is extremely strong in this area, creating a high probability for price to move both up and down to trigger all stop-losses before continuing the downward trend.
What we expect:
The price breaks this box to the upside, grabs liquidity from the minor high, and then resumes the downward movement, aligning with the overall bearish trend for gold.
This scenario highlights the importance of staying cautious and planning trades carefully around these key levels.
Gold → Consolidation. One more step to distribution...OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuating slightly due to high risk ahead of the news. Meanwhile, at this moment, strong momentum is forming. The price is consolidating within a local range. Previously, the price broke through the local ascending support...
Ahead of economic data, traders are consolidating. Volatility is decreasing, and the market is not yet ready to take risks. Investors' attention will shift to the private sector employment report, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, and the non-farm payroll report. Currently, the market is pricing in a 69% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 17-18 meeting.
Since there is no clear trend in the market and the price is within a channel, we will consider trading from its borders. Therefore, a false breakout of the key resistance level could trigger a drop to the support of the range.
Gold: Maintaining Downward Momentum
Gold Technical Analysis
The price recently tested resistance at 2651 before retreating.
Today, the price is expected to consolidate within the range of 2647 to 2638, showing bearish momentum. For the bullish trend to resume, the price must stabilize above 2647 by closing 4h candle above it, targeting 2661 as the next resistance. Conversely, as long as the price trades below 2647 and 2638, the trend is likely to remain bearish, with potential declines toward 2623 and 2612.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2647
Resistance Levels: 2661, 2678, 2706
Support Levels: 2625, 2612, 2585
Trend Outlook
Uptrend: Bullish momentum is expected if the price holds above 2649.
Bearish Momentum: Dominant as long as the price remains below 2647.
XAUUSD- SENSTIVE SITUATION WITH BEARISH MOMENTUM Gold Technical Analysis
The price is consolidating between 2637 and 2649, with stability above 2649 which is bullish toward 2661 and 2678,
Otherwise closing 1h or 4h candle below 2637 will support bearish toward 2624
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2637
Resistance Levels: 2649, 2661, 2678
Support Levels: 2625, 2612, 2585
Trend Outlook
Uptrend: Bullish momentum is expected if the price holds above 2649.
Bearish Momentum: Dominant as long as the price remains below 2647 and especially 2638.
Gold AnalysisOn the daily timeframe, we anticipate a downward movement in gold to the 2580 level. Upon reaching the daily ascending trendline, a price rebound toward the 2670 range and interaction with the 4-hour descending trendline is not unexpected.
This analysis is brought to you by the FXonbit Traders Team
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Once again our chart idea delivered the goods with our weighted retracement level providing support and bounce like we highlighted.
We were once again able to buy dips inline with our plans with the movement from 2631 to 2647. However, now we have ema5 cross and lock above 2647 opening the range above.
We have been in a similar play range all week with both ranges below and above now left open. This is typical of ranging market conditions and as always our strategy to buy dips from our weighted levels allows us to navigate the traps and secure the pips.
Our lower weighted levels are in place for bounces inline with our plans, should we see a failure to fill the gap above and see a drop below.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2668
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2668 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2696
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2713
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2713 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2733
BEARISH TARGETS
2647 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2647 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2631 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2631 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2609 - 2592
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Technical Outlook for Gold Price (XAUUSD) 4/12/2024 Technical Outlook for Gold Price (XAUUSD)
On the daily chart, gold remains in a prolonged consolidation phase, with price action mainly hovering around the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA21) and the technical level of 2,644 USD.
Although gold has recovered from the previous decline, the overall picture still leans towards a bearish scenario, with the main trend being defined by the price channel (a). Additionally, pressure continues from the EMA21, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark. These factors create conditions for a bearish trend.
As long as gold stays within the price channel (a), its technical outlook remains biased towards a downward trend, and any upward movements should be considered short-term corrections.
On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, it could continue to decline towards the next target range around 2,606–2,600 USD. Furthermore, a new bearish cycle would begin if gold drops below the key level of 2,600 USD.
For the day, the bearish technical outlook for gold is highlighted by the following key levels:
Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600 USD
Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663 USD
SWING IDEA - RATNAMANI MET AND TUBRatnamani Metals & Tubes, a leading manufacturer of stainless steel and carbon steel welded pipes and tubes, is showing a potential swing trade setup with several bullish technical signals.
Reasons are listed below :
3800 Zone Break Out : The 3800 level has acted as a strong resistance zone. The price is now breaking through this level, signaling the possibility of a continued upward move.
Bullish Engulfing Candle on Daily Timeframe : A bullish engulfing candle indicates strong buying interest, suggesting momentum may continue.
Trading Above 50 and 200 EMA : The stock is trading above both the 50 and 200 exponential moving averages, indicating overall bullish strength and long-term trend support.
Intact Trend : The broader trend remains intact, indicating that the current momentum is in line with the stock’s longer-term trajectory.
Gradual Increase in Volumes : A steady rise in volumes adds confirmation to the breakout, showing strong market participation in this move.
Target - 4270 // 4800
Stoploss - daily close below 3400
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
GOLD - 15 min ( Best Buy and Sell Scalping After Break Out ) ⚡️GOLD
Best Break Our / Key level's 15m Tf
🚨Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 2651 Area
🚨Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 2665 Area
🚨Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 2637 Area
🚨Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 2637 Area
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🔖 Announcement Coming After Successful Break
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-04: Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will run into resistance in early trading and roll downward at some point after reaching resistance.
I see the markets opening much higher this morning as the SPY/QQQ are both broadly rallying overnight.
This type of GAP UP opening often leads to the identification of price resistance and a rollover topping formation where price attempts to trail downward to fill the GAP.
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Gold and Silver are still struggling today - but should attempt to make a rally move higher over the next 5+ trading days. Until we break above the Flag High level, Gold and Silver are trapped in a sideways price range.
Bitcoin is also trapped in a sideways price range after reaching recent highs.
As I warn in this video - be prepared for very unusual price action and events over the next 30+ days. I believe we are about to see some very unusual political and economic events play out.
Keep a healthy CASH reserve and trade small quantities right now. Better to protect cash than to risk it on unknowns right now.
Get some.
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