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Weekly Market recap 5: Still at the crossroads of the sentimentsWhere we are, and "if-thens" Since the last week, the sentiment hasn't changed too dramatically, looking at the technical picture of DXY, I still see it as a range in a medium-term. Although, DXY crept down, closer to the "orange" line of defence (see the orange long-term trendline). Along with the stabilizing S&P500 index (The stock index has had the classic negative correlation with the DXY since the crash in March), DXY gives me reasons to have a short-term bearish bias, hence likely transition to risk appetite. If DXY closes below the orange trendline (around 92.2), it will be a strong sign of the beginning of a bearish market in USD. The last line of defence is around 91.7 (Sep 1 low). On the contrary, if DXY manages to close above the long-term trendline of the downtrend which started in March, I'd consider buying USD. I would need additional confirmations of course, as it is still a range market. Such confirmations may include reaching 94.00 level. The highlighters of sentiments A)If we bet on risk Say DXY would continue the downtrend, and we enter the risk appetite sentiment. What do we short USD against? Let's look at the most common risk duet of AUD and NZD (see the AUDNZD chart). If you zoom out a bit, the first thing you notice is the range, gradually descending channel. It tells us that AUD has been weaker in the long term and it's better to be long NZD in general. MA(100) is playing the role of the "mean" here. For short-term trading, it's nice to take into account how far the pair is from the mean. A good AUD-short would be after the candle reversal pattern (I marked the last one with the grey area) was formed near the upper border of the channel. Generally speaking, the further AUDNZD from the mean, the clearer it is what to buy to ride the risk appetite sentiment. B) If we bet on safe-havens Look at the long-term chart of USDJPY. USD has been pressured since 2015. Therefore I'd prefer going long JPY if risk aversion activates. However, I may still consider buying USD if USDJPY breaks the 5 years descending trendline. Summing up Eventually, follow the hints of DXY and then choose the most diverged currencies by their relative strength or weakness. For example, if risk aversion starts, I'd focus on shorting the weakest one (most likely USD) against relatively strongest one (let's say NZD). Adjust it to the short-term sentiments of European currencies and CAD, and you have a road map to find numerous additional setups.
by Cherry94
GBP/JPYHi everyone . This is the first analysis that I present to you dear friends. Over the past few months, one of the most volatile and currency pairs has been the British pound against the Japanese yen. In the future, we will see the beginning of the fall of the pound. Now, if the price can break the support area and close a 4-hour candle below it, after resetting it, we will enter the deal in 1 hour or 30 minute timeframe. The last point is the Ichimoku cloud, below which the price closes OANDA:GBPJPY .
Short
by majesty72
2
XAUUSD net short positionas long as we stay below 1900-1910 i will remain net short on GOLD (XAUUSD) we are due for a retrace back into the 1700 price but with news coming up we will need to really rely on volume inflow, with that being said using a 100 pip stock for a 4:1 swing for me is good RR i will risk 2% on this and will scale in if i see fit, keep in mind even when news comes up market makers can load up net short by running stops to the upside and then pulling the rug causing prices to drop fast and leave long buyers at the highs, most retail tend to trade small time frames, if you want to win more than you lose look at a daily or weekly chart, determine its direction, then whether you are trading the 5m, 15m, 30m 1h, 4h you choose to ONLY take positions in that trend, if a weekly is bearish for example, no matter what time frame you trade the down moves will always be bigger than the up moves which are only considered retraces into the liquidity pools for the market makers to fill orders.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by PipGxd_
Ethereum is STILL undecided about dropping to $290 or recoveringIt's like the eye of the storm... a moment of relative silence.. until thunder strikes. ETHUSD is hanging precariously to the red trading range. A little dip below this level will start to alert short sellers and Whales to manipulate a flash crash as deep as $290 (12%). Watch this space. And check out what we're building for historically proven stress free signal strategies in our link below. Note: SparksterSignals (including our technical analysis and our algorithmic backtested signals) are not provided as financial advice.
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by Sparkster
BTC State of Everything - HTF Technicals and EconometricsBTC's recent run and sudden drop has most traders uncertain of what might come. In this analysis I'll be evaluating 12 different indicators to see if we can get a feel for BTC's direction over the coming days/weeks. Note - I'll provide links at the bottom of this analysis to articles that describe some of the more exotic indicators. PAGE 1 - Headline Photo (Shown Above): Top left - Golden Ratio Multiplier (info in "resources" section below): The golden ratio multiplier has been one of the strongest indicators for spotting opportune buying/selling opportunities as well as key dynamic support and resistances. During the great 'rona selloff of 2020, we spiked down to the 2x 350SMA multiplier, the exact support that reversed the 2018/2019 selloff and launched us into the bullish paradigm that began early 2019 (and later ruined by the pandemic). We're currently resting on the 350 SMA, the SMA that is at the core of this indicator's functionality. Read alone, this would be a viable but very risky knife-catching move for any longs. I'm not particularly interested in a long here (more on that later). Top right - Guppy: I use the guppy as an additional feel for bias. Green - I am bullish, gray - neutral, red - bearish. We recently had a flip to gray from green, which taken by itself implies neutrality at this time. Note: if interested in exploring this script further, check my scripts. Bottom left - Log channel: BTC has spent almost its entire life between the white log channels. Taking this indicator alone, dipping below that white support and having it as resistance is either bearish, or represents a paradigm shift requiring a more nuanced channel. I don't take bets on paradigm shifts this young, so currently reading this as bearish. Bottom right - Ichimoku Cloud (1d) + significant EMAs + RSI: Earlier this week and late last week we had 7 daily candles where attempts to break outside of the cloud were met with failure. Yesterday's daily candle also solidified a strong bearish cross. Digesting all of it, we have a bearish cross (bearish) and price action within the cloud (neutral/sideways). On top of that, we're struggling to keep above the daily 99 EMA, which is not a great sign for bulls. Summing this up, the daily cloud is fairly bearish. More relevant on higher timeframes is the weekly cloud , whose Tenkan caught this dip and we are resting there now. Regarding RSI, we had a strong divergence that played out with a mild relief rally this past week. I consider that divergence played out and equalized, meaning RSI is neutral at this time. ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 2: ____________________________________________________________________________ Top left - S&P500 Correlation: Unfortunately, this indicator says more than most at this time. Ever since the pandemic kicked off economic uncertainty, BTC's correlation with the S&P500 has felt unshakeable. As long as SPX looks bearish, which it does, there's no reason to expect BTC to diverge. Bearish. Top right - Futures premiums: The last few bull runs have been futures-driven rallies where both the quarterly (blue) and weekly (yellow) contracts have been trading at a premium over spot. With the latest run, we've seen some consistent chop where weekly futures have been yo-yoing above and below spot prices, whereas quarterlies are trading consistently above. We're seeing the same here in more recent days. Good news for long term is that quarterly futures are above, however weekly contracts remain below. To me this represents firm indecision, which seems appropriate. technically speaking this reads as bullish for long term (think weeks to months), and bearish for near term (days to weeks). Net, slightly bearish. Bottom left - Puell Mulitple (info in "resources" section): In short, this metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - Bitcoin miners and their revenue. Specifically, BTC issuance to miners. When issuance is low, investors during that period historically have outsized returns. At this time issuance is in a slightly low phase, but not outstandingly abnormal. There is a lot of room to run upwards, but still some room downwards as well. Taken for itself, the Puell multiple of 0.6 indicates that hodlers (multi-year), should be quite fine to accumulate here while staying weary that better buying opportunities may present itself. For scale, 0.5 Puell and below is a near instant-buy for me. Net, neutral mid-term. Bottom right - Simple Haikin Ashi: Not much to say with the Heikins. We had a very strong break of the doji printed 2 days ago. If today's candle closes with a similar or longer body, it will set the tone for further bearish continuation for proceeding days. ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 3: ____________________________________________________________________________ Note: With exception to Stock to Flow, this page mostly consists of long term indicators used to spot extremes where buying/selling is most profitable. Top left - 2y MA Multiplier: We are about 20% of the distance above the 2y MA support. The current price did just proceed a dip below, which historically has sprung a long term (multi-year) bull run. Long term, bullish. Near term, neutral/irrelevant. Top right - Stock to Flow: This crowd favorite needs no introduction, but info is in the "resources" section if needed. We're currently in the early stage of the orange phase of stock to flow, which has historically been a bullish period with lots of chop along a slow grind up. Yep, that feels about right doesn't it? The read here is that anything can happen on daily or even weekly timeframes. However in years to come we'll have a laugh on our yachts about the olden days quibbling $9k vs $11k like it actually mattered. Long term, bullish. Near/mid term neutral. Bottom left - Pi Cycle (info in "resources" section): Fantastic for sniping tops, we can also glean some info about buy timing. Historically speaking, the Pi Cycle is bullish above the 111 DMA (pink), euphoric above the 2x350 DMA (green), and primed to sell when the 111 DMA crosses above the 2x350 DMA. Additionally, when bullish, buying dips to the 111 DMA support has proved profitable. We are there now - tentatively bullish. Bottom right - BTC Network Momentum (info in "resources" section): Our momentum is quite low. In fact, it hasn't been this low since 2015. That said, BTCNM does have clear supports, and we are teetering on one of the supports now. Neutral for now, but a break of that support would be a clear bearish sign. ____________________________________________________________________________ SUMMARY: ____________________________________________________________________________ Golden ratio multiplier: neutral (with a potential very risky entry for bulls). Guppy: neutral. Log channel: somewhat bearish. Daily cloud: somewhat bearish. Weekly cloud: bullish, testing Tenkan support. S&P500 Correlation: bearish. Futures premiums: long term bullish, mid term bearish. Puell multiple: long term bullish, mid term neutral. Heikin Ashi: somewhat bearish (a long bodied close would confirm and make bearish). 2y MA Multiplier: long term bullish, short/mid term neutral. Stock to flow: long term bullish, short/mid term neutral. Pi Cycle: bullish, testing support. BTC network momentum: neutral, testing support. ____________________________________________________________________________ CONCLUSION: ____________________________________________________________________________ In the near to midterm future, I am neutral to slightly bearish. Long term, bullish. Reading all the indicators together, they are generally printing a hodgepodge of results from slightly bearish to slightly bullish signs with very few extremes. In a truly bearish or bullish market we'd be seeing far more alignment of either bias across the board. However, and above all, our correlation to the S&P500 is a very strong indication of BTC's tie to the global economy and sets a dark bearish cloud over all investments, with particularly high impact on risky assets like crypto. There are some key supports at play this week that could easily decide my bias with more conviction, and I'll be watching them closely: the weekly Tenkan support, futures premiums, BTC network momentum support, and Pi Cycle support. We're at all of these supports now. A strong bounce, I'd flip bullish. A breakdown, and we're purely bearish. I tend to favor the latter. I hope you guys enjoyed this meta analysis of BTC! I have years of experience trading crypto, but this is my first publication on TradingView. If you appreciated this post and would like to see more, a like or a follow would be greatly appreciated. Thanks, and happy trading! ____________________________________________________________________________ RESOURCES: ____________________________________________________________________________ Super Guppy TradingView Strategy: unable to link, but check my scripts for source. Includes backtesting, multiples settings, and different risk profiles. Golden Ratio Multiplier: medium.com Puell Multiple: medium.com Stock to Flow: medium.com Pi Cycle: There's a good section on this near the bottom of the Golden Ratio Multiplier article. BTC Network Momentum: blog.goodaudience.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by StanleyBostich
7
GBP/JPY Short Brexit With Brexit news in the balance, It has allowed British Pound to become extremely bearish. Japanese Yen is definitely in more of a demand. We have broken structure to the sell side, we keep making lower lows, and under a two hour down trendline, several confluences to continue to sell. I do see small retracements however I would be super surprised if the overall sentiment was to go bullish long term right now, I am still bearish unless market provides a reason to stop.
Short
by nailahLovell
4
NASDAQ - I won't panic, sorry.Nasdaq's bull run was unreal. Out of this world. Irrealistic, many would say. We all knew this was going to happen at some point. Call me delusional, overly optimistic, or even naive. But I am not panicking just yet. We broke through resistance and a pull-back to the new support is a healthy signal. We need the Nasdaq to slow down, we need to put a break to impulse investing, to unreasonable pumps, and, most importantly, to the media pressure. If I was to treat this chart as a stock, I would place a limit order on the bounce, aiming for a perfect textbook entry point. I know that a bull-run will most likely follow after that. I might wrong, of course. After all, trading is not an exact science and I'm not considering fundamentals as well as behavioral finance in my analysis. However, I just feel it is too early to call this a crash. I will definitely be concerned if we break through the support line. Not until then, though. When it comes to my trading activity, I had already skipped trading tech for the past week or so, as I felt this was coming this week. I will now sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind. Time now to be grateful for our wonderful August, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon. I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the Nasdaq, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by maschera
3
S&P 500 - A Predictable BounceWe all knew this was going to happen. You don’t need to be Bill Ackman to realize that the S&P 500 would hit its head soon. It was predictable - easy to spot. The question is though: is this a simple retracement or the beginning of a crash? The only certainty is that every time that the S&P 500 touches its 4-year resistance line, bad things are going to happen in the immediate future. Same pattern in the previous 4 years. COVID19 potential second wave, civil unrest all over the US, November's elections, outrageous tech valuations, and new retail investors inflating the TSLA or AAPL of this world. After all, RobinHood “democratized” investing - or maybe put a dangerous toy in the hand of the wrong kids, by creating the biggest mass-market manipulation tool of the history, some might say. It seems to be the perfect recipe for a crash. Or maybe not? Perhaps we are assisting to a natural retracement where we pull-back a 10-15% before we are ready to roll again. Perhaps there is no tech bubble and the Nasdaq is safer than we think. Tech is different nowadays - it has a real impact on anyone’s life. And for enterprises, it accelerates growth and saves costs - it’s a must, not a luxury. What if the sell-off was initiated by institutional algos? There is no strong catalyst at the moment to justify what happened. The price hitting the resistance level might have triggered institutional algos to book profits. This might have created a chain effect that snowballed to all indices and to retail investors (who, rightfully, panicked). I personally believe that this is a healthy pull-back and that we should be able to hold up until November's elections. Who knows? No one knows, no one can know. We can only give opinions. Let's see what happens today and, most importantly, next week. Let's be cautious, but let's not panic just yet. When it comes to my trading activity, I will sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind. We had a tremendous August (up more than 200% and with an 85% win ratio) and a great start of September. Time now to be grateful, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon. The important thing is to have a plan both at trading and investment levels and be prepared for such events. I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the market, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
AMEX:SPY
by maschera