Marketanalysis
Key Levels and Market overview for the Asian session open 2/03A review of the price action from the European session and US sessions which gave us some choppy price action. Markets remain under some pressure from sellers with DAX and FTSE giving back earlier gains while the US edged lower. The USD found some sellers which supported Gold while US bond yields rallied again and Oil ranged....mixed bag really!! I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
Short Selling Opportunity Ahead: AUDCAD Analysis | 4h chartHello traders,
As you can see in my previous post the resistance level reached and profit target hit.
Now again short selling opportunity on the horizon. Wait for the OANDA:AUDCAD to close below stable support (0.91200-0.91500) and test resistance before opening short position.
Avoid long position due to downward trend and high supply.
Thanks & regards,
Alpha Trading Station
Disclaimer: This view is for educational purpose only & any stock mentioned here should not be taken as a trading/investing advice. We may or may not have position in the stocks mentioned here. Please consult your financial advisor before investing. Because Price is the "King of Market".
GBP/USD BUY "W PATTERN" (DOUBLE BOTTOM)OANDA:GBPUSD
HI , TRADER'S , OUR PREVIOUS ALL PREDICTION'S ABOUT GBPUSD REACHED TARGET
As you can see in chart market is making W pattern , which is also known as double bottom chart pattern
It's a bullish pattern in which market make 2 bottom's , and from second bottom buyer's push market up
Now 20,50 and 200 ema is supporting market , and more 150 + pip's expected
Take your entry if any dip come.
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BTCUSDAccording to the replicated analysis of Bitcoin in the daily time frame, as mentioned, the weakness of the trend in the range of 25,000 has formed the end of wave 5, and last week's falling movement can be considered a correction in the form of wave A, although the end of wave 4 of A has not yet been determined. As a result, the continuation of the trend and the end areas of the movement and the amount of its correction are not known, but the drawn scenario is the most likely state, from the point of view that every top is an opportunity to sell until the completion of the corrective wave.
GU Looking for correction then head to downside. $GBPUSD After News on 2/24/23 and After Top-Down analysis i'm looking for price to move to the downside on 2/27/23 for a short correction.
This is not trading advice or a signal!
The Website should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent market research before making your actual trading decisions.
2023 Market Projections: Leading Indicators and AnalysisTVC:US10Y
The recent market response to data on CPI , PPI, and the selloff in the bond market, coupled with hints from the Fed about potentially raising rates towards 5% to 5.25%, provide important insights into where the markets could be heading in the coming weeks.
Looking at the weekly chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, we can see a massive rising wedge pattern with a bull flag inside the wedge . The break out of the bull flag last week has a target of 5% to 5.25%, which aligns with the Fed's projected peak policy and the top of the wedge in the chart. There are some bullish signs in this chart, a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly with both the RSI and MACD , indicating a bullish continuation of the trend. Additionally, there is a bullish divergence on the daily chart , as shared a few days ago.
These signals increase the likelihood of a bullish move in the 10-year yield, and if this plays out as projected, it could lead to high selling pressure in markets, including the stock market and crypto. Higher yields can reduce the profitability and spending power of companies and individuals, and make stocks and cryptocurrencies less attractive as investment options. It's important to keep a close eye on the bond market and monitor any potential impacts on other markets.
This could mark the final leg down or a bottoming process in the current bear market, with the last leg down typically being a massive one. In the coming weeks, there may be a triple bearish divergence that develops on the 10-year yield, which could signal a nearby bottom in bonds. The stock market is expected to follow suit weeks later.
It's worth noting that this analysis is based on confluence and projections around recent developments, leading indicators, and technical analysis projection methods. However, there are no confirmations on many aspects of it yet, and there is always a degree of unpredictability in financial markets. Therefore, it's important to acknowledge the uncertainties and potential risks involved in making projections based on technical analysis . It's also important to emphasize that this is not financial advice, and readers should always do their own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions. Seeking professional financial advice before making significant investment decisions is also highly recommended.
#ES_F Pullback to major Support and Resistance line and 21 DMAMarket pulled back today and many feeds were filled with Bears and Doomsday callers ...
Is this the start of a massive down leg or just a technical pullback ? Bear trap or will Put holders be rewarded ?
Time will tell..
CPI next week so anyone's guess . Personally I'm waiting for more resolution and confirmation before trading this spot as it could go either way in my opinion.
Key Levels and Market overview into the Asian session openA look at the price action from the European and US sessions and what that may mean for the Asian market open after some stronger than expected US retail Sales triggered a choppy session. I feel data is still showing 'sticky inflation' which eventually leads to higher interest rates and lower spending which will cap the indexes...although traders are focused on a resilient economy fending off a recession.. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to play out.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
Key Levels and Market overview into the Asian session openA look at the price action from the European and US sessions and what that may mean for the Asian session open after some stronger than expected US CPI data showing 'sticky inflation'. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to play out.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
Key Levels and Market overview into the Asian session openA look at the price action from the European and US sessions and what that may mean for the Asian session open. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to play out.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
SPY QQQ HYG Divergence again I’m not sure if SPX/HYG divergence is reliable moving forward, but this indicator has proven pretty effective last year. We are currently diverging again, last 3 major divergences created pull backs of -17%,-13%, -21%
Any thoughts from my fellow analysts?
Any other divergence indicators you can share with high probability?
Good luck to all
GBP/JPY NFP 03- 04/02/2023 Possible drop too 155.500 to see if the market will break or pull, considering there is nfp new tonight expecting the drop to continute to 149.000 to wick that demand zone and continue bullish....
banks will take out buy orders at 155.500 stop hunt the orders/ I personally think tonight will have a lot of manipulations for people to buy and get stopped out till NFP news comes out with a finally bearish wick to 149.000 as done previously before the bullish movement let me know what you think .. good luck tonight lets get it $$$$
Beware of the Market at these levels (SPY SPX) I haven't posted in a while because since I entered a position in my SPX index fund, there hasn't been much to say. Until now.
I'm posting this chart to show my updated levels & chart analysis. I'm NOT adding to this position until we retest the (diagonal) white line,
indicating the current trend that we are in. At which point, we will either hold the trend for a breakout & retest of the high, or
fail to the previous support level (horizontal white line at $3511.80).
My green & yellow lines drawn indicate the projected path that price will most likely take, as we retest this heavy selling area that we are
now hitting.
I'm short term (next 3-5 months) bearish/short. Long term (next 1-3 years) bullish/long, after another significant drop in price. Since this is my Indexed retirement play, I don't plan to take any profits, only add to the position on price drops. May daytrade short positions into the resistance for the next few months.
GBPJPY: BUYFundamental Analysis
Here are the key takeaways from BoE meeting:
1. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has increased the Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%.
2. The vote was 7-2 in favor of the increase, with two members preferring to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.5%.
3. Global consumer price inflation remains high, but is expected to have peaked.
4. UK domestic inflationary pressures have been stronger than expected.
5. The MPC projects that CPI inflation will fall to around 4% by the end of the year.
6. The MPC will adjust Bank Rate as necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target sustainably.
7. The extent of domestic inflationary pressure will depend on the impact of the Bank Rate increases.
What implication could this have on sterling(GBP)?
Well, these are my thoughts:
The increase in Bank Rate by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee could potentially have a positive impact on the GBP as a currency. A higher interest rate can increase the demand for a currency, as it makes it more attractive for investors to hold and deposit funds in that currency. Additionally, higher interest rates may also lead to reduced inflationary pressures, which can further boost the appeal of a currency.
While it is true that higher interest rates can cause the value of a currency to appreciate, it can also make borrowing more expensive, which can impact consumer spending and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. This is where it gets tough, right?
Disclaimer : This is not a financial advice. This is purely my opinion based on my knowledge of macro-economics.
Technical Analysis
Based on technical analysis of the GBPJPY currency pair, there are signs of upward price momentum. The price divergence observed on the M15, M30, and H1 timeframes suggests an over-extended market scenario, which could lead to a corrective move higher. A pristine internal supply zone, located between 159.358 and 158.655, has been created by recent whipsaw price action, providing further evidence that the market could move higher to liquidate this zone.
As a result, I have established a near-term price target of this internal supply zone. If price successfully breaches this zone, I will maintain my position, considering the potential for further price appreciation. However, I'll continuously monitor the market, as additional factors and market developments could impact the performance of my position.
TSLA Re-Accumulation to Big DistributionTopping reversal candle on the 4 hr. I see Bullish and Bearish scenarios- * Yes Tesla can go to $180 first, it has to happen before Wednesday
Bearish- pullback and double top , Rising Wedge or complete breakdown from here.
Bullish-continuation on new support trend-line past $200… to confirm V bottom recovery (Tsla is one of few stocks that will be green while Markets go red)
*** everything dependent on Markets to confirm Bull cycle or to fade the rally and begin the Final leg Down of Correction.
My Thesis,( until price action delivers a different scenario)-
I’m leaning Bearish, but with a possibility of higher high along with Bearish Divergence confirmation. Just to accumulate more retail liquidity before February selloff -Smart Money began buying in December- taking profits in February lines up with lower Tax on gains and portfolio rotation
I believe economic data or FOMC will maintain hawkishness and rug-pull the markets next Wednesday.
Macro Data:
- NYSE advance decline is supporting weakness in markets
-Retail & Smart money are completely divergent
-Put/Call ratio beginning to favor Bears
-Vix bullish divergence setup forming
-DXY, 10yr & 2yr bond yields are all rising with markets
-HYG Bonds are falling while markets advance
-Retail influx & euphoria is at highest level since 2021 & 2022 August high (LARGE SELLOFF)
- Feb & March seasonally are sell-off & Volatility spikes until April
***Everything is pointing to a Large pullback or “The Final” leg of Bearish Correction
Trust The Process. Reflect, Strategize, Execute Today marks the first day of February. I had a pretty interesting trading day yesterday. I was taking a few heavy positions and happened to end up on the profitable side of those positions. I realized very quickly that my perception of the market is flawed. My optimism or ideal performance for the market I choose is always based off a monthly time frame. Yet and still, when I take positions, it's with the monthly time Frame in mind. So, no matter what the market is currently doing I always try to follow the Monthly trend.
I can no longer trust this belief. I was humbled. The profit I had produced from multiple trades were wiped out almost instantly. I realized I was going against the current trend and that price had not taken out market structure. Instead of doing a top down analysis from 12M, I think it's best if I start on the daily time frame. I also think it would be a good idea to use the path tool to draw out how price has been moving until my eyes can naturally adjust. Whatever the previous MSH (Major Swing High) is, make sure price CLOSES above it on at least a 1HR time frame and comes back to re-test that previous high before even thinking about buying. Otherwise, keep the continuation of the current trend.
I am motivated by loss. I have $58 left in my account. With this new found understanding, I'll give my best to get those profits back. I won't revenge trade, but if, and only if I see the positions, I'M ALL IN.
I should also realize that although taking big positions are exciting because you watch your money fluctuate very quickly, the excitement should be in the process.
Questions I should be asking myself every time before I place a trade:
- Am I on the right side of the trend?
- How do I know it's the right side?
- Is price currently near a major key level?
- How is price reacting?
- Has a trend line been broken?
- Has price taken out market structure
- Has price re-tested the previous high after creating a new high?
- Entry & Exit?
- Based upon the trend where would the best entry be?
- Based upon previous support, where would the best exit be?
- What time frame am I basing this information on?
- Have I thought about every possible outcome?
- What are the chances prices doesn't hit my take profit?
- Have I accounted for each possibility (Up, Down, Sideways)
I can feel my mind adjusting to what I need to believe instead of what I think. the market is a game, and the best way to be the best at any game is to keep playing. You'll lose over and over again until you become so frustrated that you're forced to try something completely different. Now most of us still don't fully get it when we make that change because implementing a new strategy is just one very small portion of it. Since fear controls most of our decisions, you can't be scared to keep starting over or making changes to a broken system. Falling in love with losing will ignite the fire to victory. The more you chase victory, the faster it runs away from you. Victory shouldn't be chased, it should be rewarded for strategy, discipline, and execution.
BTC/USDTHead And Shoulders Chart Pattern
The Head and Shoulders pattern is very easy to spot and can be a caution for traders especially when the pattern occurs at the top end of a rally or its bearish counterpart, the inverse head, and shoulders that occurs at the trough of a downtrend.
In the chart above, you can see the basic structure and the setup of the head and shoulders pattern (bullish and bearish). The neckline support (or resistance) is the key as a breakout from this level indicates a shift in the trend.
The most basic way to trade the head and shoulders pattern is to wait for the breakout from the neckline. Some traders prefer to wait for a retest back to the neckline while others simply buy or sell on the breakout. The target is set to a measured move, measured from the head (high or low) to the neckline (support or resistance) and projected from there on.
BTC/USDTRectangle Pattern Up Trend
The price is constrained by support and resistance levels in the Rectangle pattern. This means observing the pattern on a chart, and traders need to look for a price between the two horizontal lines.
The Rectangle marks several highs and lows. These highs and lows indicate a period of consolidation. Also, there is indecision in the market where buyers and sellers are competing with one another.
To identify the pattern, traders need to navigate it on either an uptrend or a downtrend. The price would then form several peaks and troughs. Finally, the breakout candle would confirm the direction of the trend.
SPY Golden Cross formation! Its BULL TIME!!SP futures finally closing above the previous descending resistance line on the 1D chart.
Combine this with the bullish indicator of the Golden Cross: 50 MA crossing the 200 MA
10 MA has already crossed the 200MA indicating at least, a short term momentum change.
On the Wed - 25 Jan we also see a long bullish hammer, with a long wick down indicating huge buying pressure at the 4000 zone followed by a huge bullish candle touching the 4075s on 26 Jan.
If bullish momentum continues, we can see a retest of key Resistances:
4170 & 4300
Those Dreaming of downside to wait another dayWe have witnessed the resiliance of investors with the determined buying of the S&P FUTURES and the market as a whole.
The close with strength above 4055 was a huge victory for Buyers their next target and obstacle will be 4093.
Macro Downtrend has been broken, Can buyers hold?