Be Careful When Others Are GreedyBe Careful When Others Are Greedy
There are still too many who think we'll break $10,000 soon.
I think we'll see one more drop again after the correction, so the Bulls should finally be bearish again and be scared.
However, the current upmove could go to $9,700/9,600 before we see the drop in the $8,000 area.
After that, the long-awaited break out of $10,000 should come.
But it may take a few days until then.
Note: The targets may change over time, but I'll keep you posted.
Manipulation
Next Target Breaks $10,000Next Target Breaks $10,000
I only do this idea because my last one is most likely wrong.
There I gave you 2 scenarios that are not correct, because I assumed that Bitcoin will drop a little further.
Sometimes it's good to hold back and see how the market behaves.
And it looks like the correction is over sooner than expected.
Nevertheless, this is a pattern, which I have already suggested in the last idea, a running flat.
As a result, the yellow box is still the zone where we need to be careful.
In my opinion, despite the drop, there are still many longs open, and as soon as we break the $10,000, it'll be more when I look around Tradingview.
This is the perfect moment for smart whales to sell all their bags so the price should not rise any more.
But we should first see how the market will react.
It is too early to make such a prognosis.
For now, the market should be bullish for a few days.
Note: Altcoins should go up one more time.
Be Aware Of THIS Scenario 2.0Be Aware Of THIS Scenario 2.0
As I said on my last update, it looks like we're going to drop again.
It all looked bullish for a while, but since everyone was sure we had a bounce at $9,200 this support simply could not hold.
Let's move on to the scenarios before Bitcoin breaks through the $10,000:
Scenario 1: We form an expanding flat and test either MA 50 in the 4hr chart or MA 200 in the 1d chart.
Scenario 2: We form a running flat and test $8,800
In my opinion we'll form an expanding flat (Scenario 1) instead of a running flat (Scenario 2).
Since many people, including 'top authors' are expecting a bounce at $8,800, it will probably not hold.
But you can never be sure.
This drop could also change the view of the idea '' Watch Out When Breaking $10,000 '' - depending on how people react to this drop.
Btw: Although I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin Cash, it's very likely that it will drop again with almost all altcoins.
If it drops with Bitcoin, I'm still very sure that it will shoot in the near future.
INCEPTION BTC EDITIONStudent of the game!
TRIANGLES FOR DAYYYYYSSS. INSIDE OF TRIANGLE INSIDE OF TRIANGLE!
It looks like the power is in the hands of the bears as is to me. A pop upwards would rally shortly with a bigger fall. As you can see, what I was saying in the video I posted earlier....theres stronger sell presence than there is buy (arrows). BTC is playing a game inside of our minds at the moment.
Manipulation has to stop somewhere before 11,7 for sure. I am willing to hold out on gains though it is very tempting to jump in but why gamble in a market you can try to read. Better to play chess while everyone else is playing checkers. I refuse to buy until the language of the charts clears up and we have established a confirmation on which direction is which.
I don't like blaming whales for things on the charts but the reality is that they do carry power and either we play into what looks like a pop higher every time until they burn us bad or we wait out their game and sacrifice minor gains for safer major ones coming up.
Alts I am also looking to get into other than BTC : NEO and NCT (polyswarm)
Stay Frosty, Keep the Patience
Be Aware Of THIS ScenarioIt seems Bitcoin has bounced off the critical zone. Since I had a sell order at around $9500 this night, I got away well. On my last idea, I said that Bitcoin breaks through this zone only if it forms a flag before or after it. With this update I would like to warn you that it could be this way again. So be open to this scenario. I've shown you the current options that I see now below what a flag might look like. It could also look very different. I just want you to make your own picture of it. Inspire yourself, go through the scenarios yourself and decide yourself. Never just listen to others, because they could be wrong too. The only difference is that they may have a stop loss while you are not safe. Make your own decision.
Be Aware Of THIS Critical AreaIn the last few days we had a very parabolic move, which is very unnatural. It all reminds of the rally up to $20000. Accordingly, I would watch out for the euphoria that currently prevails. Because the game could change very quickly in Bitcoin in the other direction.
The critical area I have marked serves as a very large resistance. Until now, it has proved to be a direction indicator for Bitcoin. Either we rebounded from there without any problems or had to form a flag before or after to break them.
Since many coins are in the meantime, I would be careful.
I also do not want to say that Bitcoin will bounce 100% there. I just want to warn you hereby.
So watch out for this area, because this could be a very good point to short.
Together with $11000 the $9800 range is the biggest resistance for Bitcoin and since nobody has this area on the screen, I could well imagine a sharp move down there to trap everyone.
How Manipulation Reduces YOUR MoneyIf everyone now thinks that all these manipulations are new to Bitcoin, then I can not agree with that.
All these manipulations already existed in 2013/14, where Bitcoin also fell by about 80%.
This manipulation also came as everyone expected a pullback at $10,000. What happened later? We were rushed through this milestone like anything else.
Even the upmove to $20,000 was pure manipulation. Nobody expected anything like that.
And now to all optimists: We will not reach a new all time high this year. We will continue to correct and we will most likely break the $6000 or at least see a sharp downmove before we go up again. This is what a correction looks like in every market.
All this will continue until almost nobody has money available or no desire to market.
Manipulation is part of the market. That has always existed and will continue to exist.
SHOCKING PROOFS: How Whales Manipulate THE BITCOIN-MARKET!Dear Friends :)
I have the last couple of weeks, warned you again and again about extraordinary high manipulation in the Bitcoin-market (BTC/USD). I received earlier today a link on Twitter to a blog on Steemit, where a guy documents, how a group of whales are discussing, how to manipulate a market.
I therefore decided to spent a lot of time to analyze the last 2 weeks of the BTCUSD-market. I have made a comparison between the last 2 weeks and Bitcoins Price movements in the past and also looked closer in to other traditional markets the last couple of weeks (with lower and higher Market Capitalization).
Let's first define manipulation:
Controlling someone or something to your own advantage, often unfairly or dishonestly. In this case, we are talking about whales with a lot of money (usually at least 5 % of the market) is taking advantage of traders with less money to gain more wealth.
My Approach:
This is only seen from a TA-perspective. I have looked at the 1h BTCUSD chart over 14 days. I have chosen to categorize 3 different ways whales have manipulated the market:
1. Bear traps (yellow circles). To bait traders to go SHORT hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms a downtrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate SHORTS.
2. Bull Traps (red circles). To bait traders to go LONG hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms an uptrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate LONGS.
3. Shake outs (orange magnifying glass). Sudden huge price movements in either direction, WHERE normal TA-principles not necessarily confirms a clear and certain direction. Also with the purpose to liquidate either SHORTS or LONGS to achieve more control in the market.
I have furthermore used the following indicators to confirm a possible manipulation:
- Volume by time (measured and compared to the MA20 volume)
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Summary and conclusion:
1. Take notice of the long period of 14 days, where the RSI not* have been under 50, apart from the times where whales manipulated the market. We only had a period of 15 hours (look at the green rectangle) where it happened. This has never happened in this market before under similar circumstances.
Usually we only see this in parabolic runs over some few days or if we make higher highs and lows in a market, which is going up in bids with not much fluctuations and usually not for that many days in a row.
2. The amount of manipulation is extremely high compared to other periods of 14 days. I have looked into at least 25 different periods of 14 days, and I haven't yet found a period with more manipulation.
3. April the 12th 2018 we had a Bitcoin-record, when it comes to volume by hour (Volume was higher than 24 times the MA20) and it appeared after a bear trap.
4. The number of times the RSI Level is above 70 is extremely high compared to a normal period of 14 days and very high to a similar uptrend period.
What we can expect now
As you can see, yesterday was the first time we came under RSI Level 50 again and stayed there without a manipulation, which took us higher. As I told you before, I also compared this situation with 2014, where we saw the crash. If this and the 2014-path continues, I have illustrated on the RSI what we will see.
You can expect that we will continue go lower in price and the RSI stay under 50 (usually around 30-40) and when we try to go above RSI 50 you can expect that it is a bull trap. You also expect regular shake outs, and eventually it can result in a similar crash we saw in 2014.
Let's hope the best for Bitcoin though!
D4 Loves You <3
I would really appreciate A BIG like this time - I spent a lot of time with all the research :)
BTCUSD- Fear not the whales! Staying afloat amidst manipulationOH NO THE WHALES ARE MOVING THE MARKET!!!!
Yes, yes they are.
But that doesn't mean you have to watch your stops get swallowed up like a helpless krill!
All jokes aside, I hardly ever post about bitcoin as I'm an Ether guy myself, but there really is some highly suspect moves in the BTC market as of late. D4 did a great job of covering some of the suspect zones (link to his chart is provided) and in the comments you can find some secondary commentary and an accompanying chart showing some additional evidence of possible manipulation.
But lets be real, if you're trading cryptos and keep your head in the game, you already knew this was happening.
On to the good stuff!
So today we're going to:
Check out one of my methods for staying away from disastrous losses from liquidated stops while whales move the market
Look at some possible paths for BTC over the next day or so
Oogle some obescenely beautiful channel movement
Staying Afloat
***This is just what I personally do to manage my trades during heavy manipulation, it is neither perfect nor without risk; but if you stay proactive about watching the market you should be able to minimize the likeliness of taking losses in a whale sell off.
I truly cant stress this one enough: Monitor to break even before you even consider dropping a stop.
If you're trading 4 hours or greater bars, drop down your usual trade time cycle to half of its usual value and do your best to check the market often for dramatic shifts. (I usually trade 4 hour charts, in this market I drop to two and do my best to check every 4 hours at most).
Place very loose stops (I usually push down my normal stop as much as 6-8% lower
DONT LOSE YOUR HEAD! whales moving the markets can be scary to watch, but they're relatively easy to pick out.
You can see how many major "whale moves" correct rather rapidly (likely after minnow positions are liquidated), HODL is never a trade strategy, but a calculated short term hold for indications of a market shift is a completely viable strategy; possibly even keeping you from the way too common "buy high, sell low syndrome")
Possible Paths
Blue seems unlikely with the dropping volume against the sharp recovery that just occurred
Green is what I would really like to see and would be the "healthiest", id be more bullish on a pump to the 100% fib after some strong consolidation along the channel than a low volume jet upwards.
I dont think this scenario is too likely considering weve been moving channel bound for upwards of two weeks. If it does though, we're looking at some good support at both $8750 and $8000 (~%50 fib of current channel bound cycle)
Channels can be a beautiful thing
Theres not too much to this one, I just love examples of market geometry and technicals playing out in fromt of me. Really the channels began forming shortly after the recent cycle low reversal. It's interesting to note that both the high/low cycle shifted by a single channel each time the fib ratios were reached.
Stay frosty, and learn to fight the whales fellow crypto traders!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Austin Doyle
CTO
BITCOIN: obvious manipulation on the 30min candlesIts really a strange pattern for some whale manipulations here. We see a 24h P.n.D (pump and dump) game and then the start of a short term upwards regression trend channel (at 10°) that lasts about 48h. This pattern has repeated now 2 times with a very high rate of accuracy (24h p.n.d and 48).
I dont really know why "they" (whales, exchanges) are manipulation the price in this pattern. But my guess is that they have some common target and this could be the consensus 2018 conference . (14-16 may)
Let me know what you peeps are thinking of it. If this continues we would see BTC price ranges between 10.4k and 11.6k right before the consensus 2018. If true.. expect a dump afterwards!
BTCUSD :: Bull's Failed Longs Killing BTCBitcoin margin traders have been the primary cause of volatility, it would seem.
What I see here is that for the most part, bears have much less impact on the market than the bulls (I would have thought the reverse!). True, a big bear paw helped knock BTC off the high horse, but the next day bulls started a path of self-destruction. This battle played out for a bit, with the bears seeming more strategic and the late coming bulls having major FOMO. The early bulls falsely inflated the CCI which was easy to do the day after all those shorts opened.
The price continued to go downward as people took their profits before they weren't profits anymore and this caused a lot of bull nuts to be squeezed. Everyone decided to give it another shot and, you can see that as L&S activity stabilizes the market tries to return to normality...which has been a down trend but it's trying to normalize the 6-11K range.
The long bulls finally gave up in the last week of march, falsely *deflating* the market as they had done previously.
At this point every has had their ass torn from both directions and I'm lmfao at how all these smart people out smart themselves. I, having no financial eduction or even skills or responsibility, have also had my ass handed to me so .. This pot is also black.
Everyone had a good LOOONG as week to analyze the crap out of every micro & macro pattern possible and a lot that aren't.
As mentioned, the bears seemed more strategic and you can see that a large number of shorts were opened at the PERFECT time.. when the 100 MA is crossing the 200 .. AND the market is hitting nearly 200 on the CCI.
The rest of the week was mostly Joe Blow grabbing big handful of FOMO. He's the one who is going to cry elephant tears. :(
We're at a crazy pinnacle of resistances from literally every direction and that hammer is super crazy ready to pounce on a market full of bulls who have run out of steam driving their precious lambo straight into the ground.
Ironic eh?
War=Risk on in this Fed manipulated market..Anybody with a mutual fund, 401k, etc should be extremely worried. The banks have hijacked the financial system, and there are no real markets anymore. Do your due diligence on currency creation, devaluation, inflation, and realize we may be in for another 1929.
BTC Stophunters/Flagcityophunters are real quys, perfect example of a beautiful flag setup dipped hard below support right before the breakout. You could tell that once we got huge sell volume on the 2nd smaller flag the run was over for the most part. That's where clean flagging turned into choppy channeling. Keep strong hands manipulation is strong atm. Rising wedge currently breaking out most likely a bull trap as the second half of this Bear Flag is much smaller than the first leg down.
BTC Stophunters!Stophunters are real quys, perfect example of a beautiful flag setup dipped hard below support right before the breakout. You could tell that once we got huge sell volume on the 2nd smaller flag the run was over for the most part. That's where clean flagging turned into choppy channeling. Keep strong hands manipulation is strong atm. Rising wedge currently breaking out most likely a bull trap as the second half of this Bear Flag is much smaller than the first leg down.
BTC Stophunters!Stophunters are real guys, perfect example of a beautiful flag setup dipped hard below support right before the breakout. You could tell that once we got huge sell volume on the 2nd smaller flag the run was over for the most part. That's where clean flagging turned into choppy channeling. Keep strong hands manipulation is strong atm. Rising wedge currently breaking out most likely a bull trap as the second half of this Bear Flag is much smaller than the first leg down.
BTC Stophunters!Stophunters are real quys, perfect example of a beautiful flag setup dipped hard below support right before the breakout. You could tell that once we got huge sell volume on the 2nd smaller flag the run was over for the most part. That's where clean flagging turned into choppy channeling. Keep strong hands manipulation is strong atm. Rising wedge currently breaking out most likely a bull trap as the second half of this Bear Flag is much smaller than the first leg down.
Short Bitcoin this week till major supp at 6kHello guys,
Short term traders, watch this, if a candle in elipse will close below that triangle line (up) you can short. It´s known as Iceberg Order (manipulation, traders who long it after pullback on triangle line and a bull candle got trapped, market will hit their stop losses soon, is in sight) nice Risk/Reward ratio.
Others watch this levels this week, I want to see bitcoin in pump zone. Then we can Long, it is really nice long term opportunity.
PS: If there will be panic, we can see bitcoin under 6k (5,5k max) then massive pump and bulls taking control over this market.
Herac
-give me your feedback guys, thanks
-what do you thing about BTC nowdays?
Bear Pennant.... Means nothing - ManipulationiIn typical scenarios this is a Bearish pattern... a basic one at that.
Why do i have a feeling it will break out upwards? They could be painting this picture to trap others. It's happened on some of the previous bear flags, where it breaks out upwards then comes back down.
This could be a bear trap, we could just go sideways... who knows. No trade zone for me
Nowhere To Run - Nowhere To HideThe "Criminals" really screwed everyone, today!
(Unless you are a shorty)
I did manage to sneak in 200 shares of TCP
I am not going to give support/resistance levels anymore.
They are irrelevant.
You can't Trust the Gangsters.
Conspiracy is a high treason crime #AMZNNASDAQ:AMZN
Very difficult trade session, long bars dancing with ups and downs in ES1! , volatility is high CBOE:VIX and again looks like somebady powerful wants to break Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN with his tweets.
Conspiracy is a high treason crime #AMZN , manipulation of stocks also is a crime
twitter.com
www.washingtonpost.com
www.cnbc.com
Consider european markets as alternative:
TVC:SX5E XETR:DAX BME:IBC INDEX:MOY0 FY1!
www.wsj.com
Strong sell for bitcoin, take your margins!Well, that was a ride. Although a bit expected due to the straight bearish flag we were in. Some manipulations tweets I saw passing by, which IMHO are correct and I will show you. I keep being bearish as this was a convulsion of bitcoin. We got a sequence of different patterns followed behind each other. See my graph. I show you a 1hr graph which describes current situation and a second graph with the manipulations (by bots) I think, is not a coincidence!
All the yellow circles or ellipses, are falling wedges or bear-flags that in 'normal' trading behavior would go up. In this 3hr pattern you see the course going down for several times. As an IT analyst, I can't argue this is NO a coincidence and nothing more than manipulation!! Be aware! Good and save trade!
Do u know where u are? U're in the jungle baby! You gonna diieeeHey, fellas!
Don't kill me, but i will let a song for you:
"Oh, sometimes I get a good feeling, yeah
I get a feeling that I've never never never never had before, no no
I get a good feeling, yeah
Oh, sometimes I get a good feeling, yeah
I get a feeling that I never never never never had before, no no
I get a good feeling, yeah"
So, if this feeling is good or not, depends on the pill you have choosen! To understand more, check the previous TA!
Thhe chart says everything i need to say you! Take care!
Mask loves you all, big brows!
"The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient" - BUFFETT, Warren