Bitcoin Correction DiscussionHope all your trading is going well
Trading is tough right now.. the dips are more shallow and direction does not always make sense.
Case in point, this morning's correction
IT WAS NOT DEEP ENOUGH
Reasons why the whales did not prevail... my theories:
Too much good news today
- Moderna Vaccine nearly approved
- Tesla about to be on Wall Street
- Endless news about institutional investors jumping in
- Their boasts of 400k BTC moonshot in 5 minutes (kidding, really 2 yrs)
- US Stimulus deal in Senate at zero hour
This means the insane retail bull investors.. like you and I... are fixated on UP UP UP
Yes, I think we will pass 25k.. but a pullback needs to happen now first
ETH??? Has no excuse not to run to $ 1000.
Even the Pro TA's on the best web sites, are scratching their heads.
I watched the fall in price closely
If the whales are involved.. they are using software with sparing coin amounts
It's like tickling the dragon of BTC price
Manipulation
EURUSD - the big shortThe institutional investors have being accumulating short positions since October 2020, now the price is located in a very important zone where a 1000 pip movement would be the maximum potential that I give to this short opportunity. This is the types of trades that could last several months.
Grayscale's Holiday Massacre of BTCA Bitcoin Holiday Massacre?
It's a Grayscale pump. Our team is willing to disclose it now.
All you need to do is dig through their 8-k reports and quarterly reports, then pair it up with price action. It takes a little work to match it all up, which is why you don't see anybody talking about it.
And frankly, the motivation to go that far was more from our ai trading machine Jarvis. It was basically telling us to look at something without saying it.
So here's what we found...
The market price we see today is a direct result of the massive inflow seen into Grayscale from six months ago.
But here’s the thing…
That effect from the massive inflow ends near the end of the year. Combine that with low levels of liquidity due to the very nature of the holiday season and profit taking before the year closes out… The stage is set for a Bitcoin Holiday Massacre.
Now to understand why inflows and the time period of six months matters, let's pull back the curtain on Grayscale a bit.
Grayscale is an entity of the Digital Currency Group who has cornered the market, accumulating a total of 536k BTC to date.
Their unique structure is what makes it possible. It’s essentially one way. BTC and USD flow in, and nothing comes out.
Here’s their holdings over time: www.theblockcrypto.com
The way they achieve this one way flow is in the way they dole out shares. Accredited investors or 'wealthy individual' can sign up for a Private Placements to receive shares.
These accredited investors can then give BTC or USD to Grayscale. In exchange Grayscale gives them equal value of shares. If each share equals 0.001 BTC (In reality it’s 0.00095085) then for every BTC handed over to Grayscale, the accredited investor receives 1000 GBTC shares.
The catch is the private investor must wait six months before selling the shares on the market… to the non accredited retail investor. The not so wealthy investor.
It might seem fair, the exchange of shares for BTC, but in reality its anything but fair. That’s because GBTC almost always trades at a premium. Retail non accredited investors looking for a pure play into BTC within the stock market are paying anything but fair value.
For example. Yesterday GBTC closed at $28.25. Bitcoin according to the BraveNewCoin Liquid Index closed at $22,830. At 0.00095085 BTC per share, fair value for GBTC is $21.71. That’s a 30% premium just because the buyer isn’t wealthy. And that’s a 30% premium going straight to the accredited investor who handed over their BTC.
It gets worse…
Periodically Grayscale closes its offering for some time before allowing more investors to buy new shares. Once these new offerings start, the six month countdown begins.
Once the countdown is over we see over the last two years solid evidence that the market suddenly jolts higher almost every single time. That’s right… the spot market gets driven higher shortly after the newly minted shares can hit the market.
Don’t believe me? Well, before I show you comb through the chart above and its 51 different lines and arrows (yes, I counted... but am a bit sleepy so could be off by a few) let me first add in that six months prior to bitcoin jumping past $14,000 the largest inflow happened at Grayscale. And it happened over months, not a week. That's what those boxes represent.
Now that the six months are up as of November 2nd the market has been rallying hard. Not to mention Wall Street fund managers are suddenly changing their tone.
Here's the thing. The large inflow of capital into Grayscale paused the week of June 29th. Meaning for most of July there were no inflows according to the most recent quarterly report. Six months from then is December 29th.
The holiday season might experience the first major correction of this bull market. Professional traders will be on break, market makers will be less active and Wall Street not in the office... It's a recipe for lower volumes and lower levels of liquidity. Combine this will natural profit taking measures that can happen before the New Year and no new shares getting dole out, we're setting up for an environment poised for a correction.
Key:
Blue vertical lines represent inflows resuming
Purple lines represent when the 6 month lock up is over from the date inflows resumed
White line is the pump after the lock up is over
The two boxes represent the largest inflow time period and unlocking period
Horizontal arrows help connect each blue line to the corresponding purple line.
ALTCOINS are not significantly different from Bitcoin as to TAMany traders avoid trading ALTCOINS altcoins (indecent title: SHITCOINS), because of their small caps, which are easily manipulated.
This is true in small time frames, such as 15 minutes and 30 minutes. In a higher time frames, it may be different. Because almost all crypto currencies are following Bitcoin in the first place for most of the time, manipulating currency prices does not always succeed.
Take TFUEL as an example, the blue->green signals have alerted three bottoms. It seems that to manipulate price is not always easy.
DISCLAIMER
This is only a personal opinion and does NOT serve as investing NOR trading advice.
Please make your own decisions and be responsible for your own investing and trading Activities.
Whales swinging BTC market to daytradeI watched these movements in real time on aggr trade. It is a few of the same large actors putting in large buy orders, spurring fomo so people buy the "breakout," then, at whatever seems the top, they sell all at once. We saw this at large scale several times recently near ATH pushes.
These are not organic price movements, it is the result of bored whales daytrading and scalping. Eventually, people are going to stop reacting to these false breakouts, and we will have to find an actual organic support.
Whales are taking profits. This means they intend to buy lower in the near future. Ergo, BTC price will correct lower in the near future.
Not financial advice. Not a professional financial adviser. Opinion and entertainment only.
Bit OK and Crypt (Not Grave) Theater Performance 2013-2015.For smart people only. Today is a very important day for the "addicts" of this project. 99.9% of people see this only as a material benefit. But only in this way it was possible to translate everything into reality. Although the whole final meaning of the idea is the opposite. People have become "drug addicts" without realizing that they are simply inflated with money from the air in order to develop and test a number of technologies. Many are not satisfied with little, start to "play in the casino", naturally, in the end result, thanks to greed, they are zeroed out. As desires and thoughts are destructive for them. Together with BITcoin (for many it has become like electronic cocaine), other test projects are simultaneously developing, which at first glance seem to be completely unrelated to the world of finance. In one moment, everything will be united into one whole.
Faith is a terrible force, it can translate into reality both logical and completely devoid of logic beliefs. Whoever controls faith controls the world.
Look closely at the graph. I showed only what is on the surface itself. The time is drawing near. Many "secrets" that were never secrets will be revealed. Today is 2 12 2020. Look what happened exactly 7 years ago. There is a clear plan and logic in the numerical values of lows, highs and times. Also, there is a logical relationship with the number of days between lows and highs. I didn’t show. Everything is very accurate, no coincidences. The future is related to the past, and the past is related to the future. Plan.
Coincidences are what a person does not understand at a certain stage of his development, the incomprehensible is called an accident, a coincidence. In our world, there can be no physical coincidence.
I am sure that the majority see this as only material benefit, and it will ruin them. Many are looking for ways to understand everything and become a "fabulously rich bummer." As long as you think so, you will not understand anything and you will not get anything. This is the whole genius and immunity from "viruses". The system will not give you a lot of resources, since you will not use it for the benefit of the world. I am sure that even if someone makes money in this market due to their greed and insatiable desire to have more and more inapplicable, they lose everything. Psychological behavior and, as a consequence, the actions of most people are quite predictable. Some want to become "lazy millionaires" so much that they don't want to spend even a penny of what they earn in the market not only for someone, but even for themselves. Greed breeds poverty. Everything is in the head.
Collect good deeds throughout your life. Unlike material things, they are not corruptible, always in fashion and do not lose their values and relevance at different historical times. This is something you can take with you when their collection time is up. This is the essence that is hidden openly. This is the first row ticket to the new world.
Most people naively dream of making huge profits while keeping a potentially expensive electronic miracle in order. The price of which is zero without technology and people's faith. The higher the faith, the higher the price. The cryptocurrency market brand is likely to be costly, even insanely expensive, if the project needs it, but that will only happen when the critical amount of bitcoin is not in the mainstream. It doesn't matter where you store it, everything is calculated in advance. It's like a thief gives you a "safe" and says that only in it you can store valuable things. The safest place, but the thief has a key that he will use when you collect your valuables. Everything is brilliant, simple.
No matter how confusing the event algorithm is, it always has one end, namely the one that its creators originally laid down for it.
How can a test subject outwit the creators of the game? Many people believe in the fairy tale given to them about the kind grandfather Satoshi Nakamoto. It is comparable to how children believe in Santa Claus, realizing that he is not there, but playing along with adults in order to receive gifts.
Gifts will be received by everyone equally, even those who do not know about the existence of the crypto market and in excess of the profit that it gives now out of the blue. But those who want to become a "millionaire" and accumulate their "wealth" long before this "freebie" will find that their potential expected "millions" have disappeared instantly and unexpectedly. There is absolutely no way you can outwit the creators of the game. After all, the arena for the game, its rules, chips, were not created by you. Everything is thought out in advance to the smallest detail. Even your reaction and behavior to certain events and act.
Many people do not even suspect how controlled and predictable they really are in their free choices and actions. By shaping people's thinking, reality is being shaped.
The whole project develops thanks to human weaknesses and the desire to have what cannot be. At least at this stage in the development of civilization. There is no worldwide cohesion and full-fledged gain without selfish gain. The only important thing is technology and its widespread introduction. All for the sake of control and order. There is no other way, the person has become very selfish. Unfortunately, some parasites of society can only be re-educated with a whip. When such characters become a critical mass of society, a very dangerous situation arises that can cause uncontrollable chaos and, as a result, outside interference. Can we ourselves put things in order in our temporary home until the “time of reason” 8 08 2023?
Most people are only interested in temporary material gratification of the lower animal desires, and not in the future of the world. Including they are not interested in the life of his future generations. Change yourself - the world will change, otherwise the world will change you .
Bitcoin into this bearish flag; How to trade this charist?So, in this analysis, we see in H4 that Bitcoin it's still in range, but maybe we could see any manipulation zone that we can't to entry in short position. Beware of the market trap and hunters manipulation if you short Bitcoin, until Bitcoin doesn't break down the $17,900 USD, I can't to shorting Bitcoin, but in that case if Bitcoin make successful to break down the $17,900 USD. We can to trade it. At the moment, the market is lateral, and to trade it, we would need to know how the manipulation occur.
So, the most important it's to take any plan to be prepared, so, I following the trend on Bitcoin and it's bullish. So, in case that Bitcoin break up the $19,500 USD approximately, we can to entry in long position in that position.
So, the most inteligent it's to awaiting that Bitcoin goes to the $17,900 USD to open up a long position or still consolidate in this range!!!
DOW Target @ $33,000. Gappy Bull Flags Take The StageManipulation or not, I expect this Bull Flag pattern to play out through year end. I think we could see huge one day gains that draw liquidity into the market right before topping out. Eventually, the market has to drop since we have no GDP. Maybe some time around year end we should see the bearish weakness and huge downside potential.
GBPJPY - Not Buying ItI would think the majority of retail will now be expecting buying continuation after seeing this 4-hour structure break and re-test. Personally, I am more inclined on selling pressure down into the key level marked. This will wipe out the majority of retail SL's before flying to the upside. My current bias is bearish but I am happy to flip biases if we see a close above the horizontal line marked.
EURUSD - Selling Trap CompleteMy bias going into next week is bearish for this pair but this can flip at any point depending on the price action we see. Sellers have been trapped twice now as shown, banks may now have enough liquidity to create a strong move to the downside, similar to my GBPUSD analysis.
I will be patient with this pair and allow the structure to shift before I get involved. If we see bullish momentum breaking the horizontal level marked then I will disregard my bearish bias and look for a buying opportunity into the previous highs.
GBPUSD - Channel BounceGBPUSD has bounced from the lower level of the ascending parallel channel, the majority of retail will now be loading up there longs, especially after crossing the key structure marked. Personally, I believe we could potentially see a structure shift like the one marked with a strong push to the downside after the re-test. If this doesn't happen then i will just simply disregard my short bias and flip the bias for longs.
SNAP PredictionSince the election is less than a week away & uncertainty continues to grow due to COVID, I believe SNAP will have no choice but to pullback & fill the gap from earnings last week. Not only is it extremely overvalued, but I don't see it as a good hedge against a possible market correction in the near-term future. The only thing holding it between this 40-42 level, in my opinion, is the overconfidence of investors in the social media sector, however, volume has been steadily decreasing this past week. Another possible reason it's been holding up against a bearish market could be some form of manipulation, but I'm not sure. Heavy open interest with Oct. 30 call & put options is sitting between this key level as well, so that could be a reason for manipulation to eat away at premiums, but of course this is just me speculating. Other than lowered volume, major overextension on the RSI, crossing below VWAP, crossing below EMA20 this morning, & no actual support anywhere near the current valuation, I don't see any technicals pointing toward it becoming bullish. Let me know your thoughts.
Revenge TradeGeez, it is Tough dealing with these Criminals (Market Makers) on a daily basis!
Bought 2000 shares of ACB , again, on Friday.
CHFJPY - Manipulation IdeaWe may be a little late to the party on this one but I may consider placing a sell limit from the lower time frame order block I have found. What you witnessed was clear manipulation, firstly we saw price drive to the upside gathering liquidity from the resistance sellers, only to convince retail that price was proceeding to the upside, a strong manipulation wick was formed and price died off into its intended direction. We may miss this move completely, I will have to analyze it again on Monday to see how this pair holds over the Asian session tonight.
COT Data - 65% Short