Magic
Short Term Timed Predictive Analysis GannTime is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying past price records you will be able to prove to yourself history does repeat and by knowing the past you can tell the future. There is a definite relation between price and time. By studying time cycles and time periods you will learn why market tops and bottoms are found at certain times, and why resistance levels are so strong at certain times, and prices hold around them. The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.
- W.D. Gann
Enhanced Magic Formula for fundamental analysisThis is an experimental procedure based on fundamentals. Since, there isn't much option to backtest these methodologies, I am trying to create a trade and then measure performance over long period of time.
Magic Formula investing method is invented by Joel Greenblatt . In a nutshell strategy does following:
Rank all the stocks based on Return on Capital
Rank all the stocks based on Earning Yield
Add these ranks to come up with a combined rank.
Invest equally in first 10 stoscks of combined. Rebalance yearly.
Concept here is, earnings yield represents value whereas return on capital represents quality. Combining these two to get the stocks which have best of both.
More information on the methodology is present here: www.investopedia.com
Improved Method :
Since, tradingview does not allow comparing fundamentals or technicals of all stocks, I had to do this in python. Output report can be found here: docs.google.com
Basic Filtering of Stocks:
Basic filtering of stocks is done based on the methods as mentioned in quality screen indicator:
Since the financial data is taken from yahoo for generating report, some of the quality parameters are not included and there can be slight changes in the fundamental values present in tradingview. No other initial filtering is applied.
Derive ranks on several Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow parameters:
Value Parameters : P/E, P/S, P/B, P/C, P/FCF, PE-Forwarding, PEG Ratio
Profitability Parameters : ROA, ROE, ROI, GrossMargin, OperatingMargin, ProfitMargin
Growth and Momentum Parameters : Quarterly, Half Yearly and Yearly Performance, Upside Calculated from analyst valuation
Cashflow Parameters : Quick Ratio, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity, Long term Debt to Equity, Debt to Assets, Long term debt to assets.
Derive composite rank for Value, Profitability, Growth and Cashflow based on individual ranks:
For example, Add up all ranks of value parameter to come up with Value Score. And then sort value score in ascending order to get value rank
Derive combination ranks such as value/growth rank, value/profitability rank etc by similar method: Also create combined rank which considers all 4 ranks - value, profitability, growth and cashflow.
Sort the values based on combined rank to get top value/quality stocks - which represents lowest score.
Final stock selection consideration : Instead of picking first 10 stocks, I have picked stocks from different sectors thus sacrificing bit of Magic Formula edge. This is to avoid high concentration on single sector.
Final list of stocks selected:
SBSW - Basic Materials (Gold)
VALE - Basic Materials (Industrial Metals and Mining)
GOOG - Communication Services (Internet and Information)
CROX - Consumer Cyclical (Footwear and Accessories)
ENVA - Financial (Credit Services)
EVR - Financial (Capital Markets)
UTHR - Healthcare (Biotechnology)
LPX - Industrial (Building Products and Equipment)
TER - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials)
AMAT - Technology (Semicondoctor Equipment & Materials)
long $CMPSLooks like the MACD is still heading down but curling up. RSI is bottoming out as it reaches an important level of support. I think the risk reward at the $28 level is optimal. If you have a high risk tolerance, buy now.
Shrooms are already decriminalized in Denver and are about to be in Detroit.
The TAM which was initially an imaginative number is now becoming real for Compass Pathways. Go long CMPS
www.freep.com
Looks ready to find a floor and launch on the weekly chart.
I put a $PELL on you Because you're mine [soundtrack]Comparing SPELL, OHM and ICE just for fun because there is no such realistic Price Action in real life. But, if I had to pick one, it would be SPELL.
The Secret of December 17th! New high incoming?What if there was a specific day of the year that bitcoin typically told us what it was planning?
For the last 3 or so years it has been on Dec 17th that a significant development has developed regarding the cycles of BTC. It has often labelled the day of the exact top or bottom; as well as confirming the beginning or end of a previous cycle. I believe we are about to be entering the part that occurred last 2016 after DEC 17 15. I then did a bar pattern of the DEC 2016 - 2017 cycle for the time which will be from DEC 17 2021 -2022. This would mean we hit maybe as high as 23-32000 this December 17 and next one should be somewhere around 100-500k.
Very interesting how in 2017 it was the day of the peak... then 2018 was they day after the bottom; with dec 2019 being about exactly when it was confirmed that we had begun the next bull run... we shall see what happens this DEC 17 but I have a feeling it will be a new ATH.
thoughts?
Hacking the Fibonacci I drew the RED RAY LINES to extend right when the RED and YELLOW Fib Ratio lines cross. Notice the price reacts around the RED RAY lines. I have done it on 20 other charts and this phenomenon is consistent, they will be hit. The tops are amazing, they are only tops if they have never been hit before
POMO3 LTA, Fibonacci, MA200, MA 50 e pequena div.RSI intradayAtivo próximo a 0.2 de Fibo, caso haja mais volume de compra do que de venda, podemos buscar 0.5 ou 0.6 de fibo.
R:R 3:1
RSI: Bull divergence em 120m.
Média Aritmética de 200 períodos (Azul) e Média Aritmética de 50 períodos (Amarela) em 720m estão neutras.
IBOV X POMO3 Gráfico Diário.
Mês de junho não teve um fechamento muito agradável para os compradores.
Esse conteúdo é apenas informativo, não é uma sugestão de investimento
FED and Shoulders - Massive Bear Setup in Stock Indices Amid depression-level unemployment, the stock market is nearing all-time highs. But how and why?
THE FED!
The Federal Reserve is funneling money into corporations via buying corporate bonds. Corporations then take this money and buy their own stock, hopefully netting out those who can see the writing on the wall.
The average age of a Baby Boomer is 66 - retirement time!
How do we retire a generation when the stock market is at 2000-2008 levels or lower? The FED indirectly provides the liquidity with printed dollars. Boomers will not think about putting Trump back in this November if they go into retirement without cash.
For corporations to also benefit from all this free money, do they just buy their stocks and hold? Is it not the rational choice to convert their new stock inventory to cash for themselves as a matter of survival? Will the FED be there to keep buying? Do we in fact live in a world without consequences? As a false bull wave hypnotizes the masses, those with cash to buy stocks 'since the market is going up' will provide this liquidity to corporations.
Market participants will lose faith in a market where price discovery becomes compromised. Market cycles and pandemics cannot be printed away.
When numbers come out at the end of this and subsequent quarters, when real prices rise, when stimulus checks don't make it to consumers, the bottom will inevitably fall out. It will inevitably and indirectly be the FED who bears the losses in the stock market, as opposed to the boomers. Or that's the idea anyway.
Significant buying opportunities ahead, as soon as the FED stops fiddling. That, or we see an end of public markets in the United States. When the government enables corporations to buy their own stock, risk free, with magic money, what are the big-picture implications of that?
Going Long!I see great potential in this. Almost looks like the same hype as the cannabis one, but less strong. Share your thoughts.