$XAU - NATH's Ahead ? LONG opportunities incoming for Gold *W (tf) (wave 5)
Wave 4 completed ?
Long Confirmation is anticipated with the red trendline resistance breakout and CHoCH's on smaller time
frames.
Current support trendline support on green and 20EMA on *W
TA speaking, Gold is sitting at a very sweet spot until the uptrend is invalidated
- Looking ahead for New All Time Highs for Gold in the midst of this troubleshooting
frenzy Economic Enviroment
US's Debt Ceiling Crisis and governments not trusting any longer The US Dollar
in their balance sheets.
Did you know that through-out 2022 and the on-going of 2023 amongst many countries,
Russia and China, two Global Superpowers,
have been stacking Gold up as their
State Reserves in heavy amounts !
Do they know something we don't !?
TRADE SAFE !
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity based alone in this idea
Macroeconomics
Is the Worst OVER? This is the differential of 10yr vs 1yr US bond which represents long term against short term yield on sovereign debt, and those you don't know, short term bonds are used by central banks to control interest rates(amazing uh? the FED does not actually print money) therefore they do use bonds as a tool to control interest rates which then controls the S&D of capital.
As you can see, we are back at a differential which is extremely low, back to energy crisis levels. However, we seem to be already at very low levels, does that mean THE WORST HAS COME? What is going to happen to the stock market?
A very quick and personal thought to sum everything up as I do not consider myself an expert macroeconomist: the market is efficient, meaning that the current price on every single security is traded at all the current public information that is available and if something keeps going up, it means that expectation are in favor of it moving higher.
Hope that explains what I wanted to say,
Feel free to ask question, be safe!
EUR/USD - Resistances to Observe- With Europe entering in to Recession as a cause of
two consecutive negative quarters,
a positive Price Action is a merely a relief rally that will be short lived..
Golden Zone is most definetely reachable taking into consideration
the negative Macro-Economics events for Europe .
Patience is a virtue .
TRADE SAFE
*** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor
before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this idea
$DXY -Ballads of Dollar $- Monitoring The Dollar Index TVC:DXY and constantly keeping an eye on its Price Action packed with Stories to Tell ,
is very important in your Trading Journey.
TVC:DXY its ;
The best Strategy,
the best Signal
the best Indicator
Why ?
Because it's a Dollar Story !
As the phrase goes :
'Paper Rules the World'
And so it does,
to the average man working 9-5 having no aspiration to know the dark valleys of this World.
And so it does,
regarding us that are involved in Trading Financial Markets.
While the most valuable of fiat currencies out there is The Mighty Dirty Dollar to whom the whole Economic System is based upon,
it's a must to be diligent and vigilant over The Dollar Index's TVC:DXY
price action stories.
TRADE SAFE
*** This is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor
before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this idea
$DXY -Debt Ceiling Scenarios *2W
All Eyez on TVC:DXY !
The Fate of other Financial Markets is to be decided on X Date of Debt Ceiling
Important Candlesticks prints on *2W and *W
Dollar Index seems to been having stuck between the range of
100.8 - 105.9
so far speaking of 2023's Price Action
However, with the incoming decision of Debt Ceiling this range
can very well be violated on it's borders ;
wether to the downside or upside that has yet to be seen :
- Bearish case'C' wave on ABC Correction)
- Bullish Case Impulsive Wave1 from 1-2-3-4-5 Elliot Waves)
Moreover,
With the breakout of Red Trendine Resistance, wave one is about to come
in to fruiton while yet needing to clear the last Lower High of the downtrend
to create a Change of Character of the Donwtrend.
Breaking above last LH and holding support (Wave B)
also confulences with the Golden Zone of Fibb taken from 114.7 High
to Lows of 100.8 (Wave A)
TRADE SAFE
***
Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking
any trading related activities based soly on this idea.
XAU/USD - Brics ThroryThe BRICS theory refers to an economic concept that emerged in the early 2000s, highlighting the growing influence and potential of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. While the BRICS theory primarily focuses on these countries' collective impact on the global economy, it can also have implications for currency pairs like XAU/USD (Gold against US Dollar).
BRICS and Gold Demand:
The BRICS countries, particularly China and India, have been significant drivers of global gold demand. These nations have traditionally had a cultural affinity for gold as a store of value and a symbol of wealth.
Increased economic growth, rising middle-class populations, and expanding disposable incomes in the BRICS nations can contribute to a sustained demand for gold, potentially impacting the XAU/USD pair.
BRICS and US Dollar Dependency:
The BRICS nations have been exploring avenues to reduce their dependency on the US dollar for international trade and investments. This includes bilateral trade agreements, currency swaps, and initiatives like the BRICS New Development Bank.
If the BRICS countries succeed in reducing their reliance on the US dollar, it could lead to a decline in the US dollar's global dominance, potentially affecting the value of XAU/USD.
BRICS Economic Performance:
The economic performance and stability of the BRICS nations, individually and collectively, can influence investor sentiment and capital flows. Positive developments, such as robust economic growth, structural reforms, and political stability, may increase investor confidence in the BRICS economies and impact the XAU/USD pair.
Geopolitical Factors:
Geopolitical dynamics within the BRICS nations can also affect the XAU/USD pair. Political tensions, trade disputes, or changes in government policies may create volatility and impact gold prices and the value of the US dollar.
Diversification of Reserves:
The BRICS nations have been actively diversifying their foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar. This diversification often involves increasing their holdings of gold, which can influence gold prices and, consequently, the XAU/USD pair.
It is important to note that while the BRICS theory provides a framework to understand the collective impact of these economies, each country has its unique economic, political, and monetary policies that can independently influence the XAU/USD pair. Therefore, conducting thorough analysis of individual country-specific factors is crucial when considering the BRICS theory's potential impact on XAU/USD trading.
Pound Weakness After U.K. InflationAs a young trader (21 years old), I see my trading style as more of an art than a science. I don't understand patterns, and I don't use technical analysis. I am a macro trader. I take information from various sources (WSJ, Twitter, Investing.com, Trading Economics, ect.), and my instincts kick in. I understand where assets should be moving on data releases.
The U.K. pound has been on a monster rally in the past month and change. Expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause rates, with some saying cuts later into the year, has simmered the red hot U.S. dollar. The Bank of England on the other hand, is expected to continue hiking rates in the midst of the highest inflation in recent memory. When yields rise on the U.K. Gilt, that makes their debt more attractive to foreign investors, making their currency appreciate against the greenback.
This past Wednesday morning, at 1:00AM (CST), U.K. inflation came in hotter than consensus estimates (8.7% actual versus 8.2% consensus), as did core inflation (6.8% actual versus 6.2% consensus). I would have expected the pound to appreciate against other currencies as their currency becomes more valuable as Gilt yields rise. The opposite happened, FXB has now fallen two consecutive days. I was building up my short position against the pound, but we must remember U.S. data sets can affect currencies across the globe. I exited my FXB position before the open today with the intention of hopping back in after said release.
Tomorrow (5/26), before the bell, we have U.K. retail sales MoM, U.S. durable goods orders MoM, core PCE prices MoM, personal spending MoM, and personal income MoM. There's no telling where any of this data will land us, especially the U.S. data, and that is why I closed out of my position today.
As far as I can see, we have no upcoming U.K data that would affect the pound. That is why I'm confident in this trade. The market will have time to digest what has transpired, and my hope is that it will come to the same conclusion that I have.
I have full intentions of getting back into my trade after this data is priced back into the stock. The most important lesson I've learned in my very young trading career is protecting your capital and letting the trades come to you, don't look for them, they will find you ;)
fyi - this is my first writing and any feedback is appreciated! Thanks
FXB downside after U.K. inflationAs a young trader (21 years old), I see my trading style as more of an art than a science. I don't understand patterns, and I don't use technical analysis. I am a macro trader. I take information from various sources (WSJ, Twitter, Investing.com, Trading Economics, ect.), and my instincts kick in. I understand where assets should be moving on data releases.
The U.K. pound has been on a monster rally in the past month and change. Expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause rates, with some saying cuts later into the year, has simmered the red hot U.S. dollar. The Bank of England on the other hand, is expected to continue hiking rates in the midst of the highest inflation in recent memory. When yields rise on the U.K. Gilt, that makes their debt more attractive to foreign investors, making their currency appreciate against the greenback.
This past Wednesday morning, at 1:00AM (CST), U.K. inflation came in hotter than consensus estimates (8.7% actual versus 8.2% consensus), as did core inflation (6.8% actual versus 6.2% consensus). I would have expected the pound to appreciate against other currencies as their currency becomes more valuable as Gilt yields rise. The opposite happened, FXB has now fallen two consecutive days. I was building up my short position against the pound, but we must remember U.S. data sets can affect currencies across the globe. I exited my FXB position before the open today with the intention of hopping back in after said release.
Tomorrow (5/26), before the bell, we have U.K. retail sales MoM, U.S. durable goods orders MoM, core PCE prices MoM, personal spending MoM, and personal income MoM. There's no telling where any of this data will land us, especially the U.S. data, and that is why I closed out of my position today.
As far as I can see, we have no upcoming U.K data that would affect the pound. That is why I'm confident in this trade. The market will have time to digest what has transpired, and my hope is that it will come to the same conclusion that I have.
I have full intentions of getting back into my trade after this data is priced back into the stock. The most important lesson I've learned in my very young trading career is protecting your capital and letting the trades come to you, don't look for them, they will find you ;)
fyi - this is my first writing and any feedback is appreciated! Thanks
COTI must hold $0.0694COTI is getting very close to the absolute bottom and it must bounce off $0.0694 (orange line).
If it does not then the next level is $0.0621 (red line)
We can see that COTI has been in a down trend for almost a month now, the MACRO has not been good for the market but COTI has been hit especially hard.
It has to bounce back.
So, in summary, if we break below $0.0694 then there is definitely more pain in the future.
If we manage to bounce off that level we should be able to reclaim $0.0800
Of course if we recover, the speed of the recovery will depend on the rest of the market, but if we break levels then we will dump fast.
US500 short ideaI know a lot of people want the stock market to crash and burn, and for the US economy to go into a recession.
Well here is my idea of what to look for in a short trade on the US500, ES, SPX etc.
But be warned, after this tax drain, if the US Congress lifts the debt ceiling, your shorts will be blown out of the water.
There will be more and more positive fiscal transfers as the level of interest rate as seen in the EFFR stays high and even goes a little higher.
US Dollar looks bearish stillAfter examining the Weekly chart for the DXY, it appears to me that the dollar flow is likely to continue downward for some time. Today's Advance GDP q/q reading is expected to be 2.0%, following the disappointing last reading of 2.6%. Additionally, the US Unemployment Claims are anticipated to be higher, at around 247K.
In my recent blog posts, I discuss the current tax drain in the US, which is an annual occurrence that typically results in assets such as the S&P decreasing in value. However, this year is different as we have reached the debt ceiling, and there is a possibility that things could become precarious if the spending limits are not raised. While there is certainly uncertainty in the US political process, some financial media outlets and fintwit users are discussing the possibility of recessions and de-dollarization. While I agree that there is a flight from the greenback, this trend could easily reverse if a political resolution is reached.
For each of the yen crosses that I have been following I'll wait to see where they are at when we get the news. I am not looking for trades before then.
Here are the levels I expect us to touch at some point in the near future.
USDJPY
GBPJPY
EURJPY
Fundamentals & Technical AnalysisHow to apply fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement your technical analysis and trading strategy
Fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends are important tools for traders who want to understand the underlying forces that drive the market. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses on the price action and patterns of the market. By combining both approaches, traders can gain a more comprehensive and balanced perspective on the market and improve their trading strategy.
Fundamental analysis of the macroeconomic environment involves studying the economic, political, and social factors that affect the supply and demand of an asset. Some of the most relevant fundamental indicators are:
- Gross domestic product (GDP): This measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country in a given period. It reflects the economic growth and health of a country. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy and a higher demand for its currency and assets.
- Inflation: This measures the change in the average price level of goods and services over time. It affects the purchasing power of money and the interest rates. A moderate inflation indicates a healthy economy with stable growth. A high inflation indicates an overheated economy with excessive money supply and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Interest rates: This measures the cost of borrowing money. It affects the profitability of investments and the exchange rates. A higher interest rate indicates a tighter monetary policy and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A lower interest rate indicates a looser monetary policy and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Trade balance: This measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. It reflects the competitiveness and demand for a country's goods and services in the global market. A positive trade balance indicates a trade surplus and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A negative trade balance indicates a trade deficit and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
To complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can use fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to identify the long-term direction and strength of the market, as well as potential opportunities and risks. For example, suppose a trader wants to trade EUR/USD, which is the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar. The trader can use technical analysis to identify the support and resistance levels, trend lines, chart patterns, indicators, and signals on different time frames. The trader can also use fundamental analysis to assess the economic conditions and outlook of both the eurozone and the US, as well as their relative interest rates, inflation rates, trade balances, and other factors that affect their currencies.
Suppose the trader observes that the eurozone has a higher GDP growth rate, lower inflation rate, positive trade balance, and stable interest rate than the US. The trader can infer that the eurozone has a stronger economy than the US, which implies a higher demand for the euro than the US dollar. The trader can also observe that the EUR/USD is in an uptrend on the daily chart, with higher highs and higher lows, supported by a rising moving average. The trader can conclude that the fundamental analysis confirms the technical analysis, which suggests that EUR/USD is likely to continue to rise in the long term.
The trader can then use technical analysis to find an optimal entry point to buy EUR/USD. For example, suppose the trader sees that EUR/USD is retracing from a recent high to test a support level at 1.2000, which coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a rising trend line. The trader can also see that there is bullish divergence between the price and an oscillator indicator such as RSI or MACD, which indicates that the downward momentum is weakening. The trader can decide to buy EUR/USD at 1.2000, with a stop loss below 1.1900 and a target at 1.2200.
By applying fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and enhance their trading performance.
If you are stock trading, you should consider the following fundamental indicators which are all readily available as trends on the TradingView platform:
- ROE (Return on Equity): This indicator measures how effective a company is in generating profits for its shareholders. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the shareholders' equity. A high ROE indicates that the company is using its resources efficiently and creating value for its owners.
- EPS (Earnings Per Share): This indicator measures how much profit a company makes per share of its common stock. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the number of outstanding shares. A high EPS indicates that the company is profitable and can potentially pay dividends or reinvest in its growth.
- DYR (Dividend Yield Ratio): This indicator measures how much dividend a company pays per share of its common stock relative to its earnings. It is calculated by dividing the total dividends by the net income or the dividend per share by the earnings per share. A high DYR indicates that the company is rewarding its shareholders with a steady income stream and has confidence in its future prospects.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow): This indicator measures how much cash a company generates from its operations after deducting capital expenditures. It is calculated by subtracting the capital expenditures from the operating cash flow. A high FCF indicates that the company has enough cash to pay its debts, invest in new projects, or return money to its shareholders.
- PEG (Projected Earnings Growth): This indicator measures how fast a company's earnings are expected to grow in the future relative to its current price. It is calculated by dividing the price-to-earnings ratio by the annual earnings growth rate. A low PEG indicates that the company is undervalued and has strong growth potential.
These fundamental indicators can help traders to identify stocks that are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced based on their financial performance and future prospects. They can also help traders to compare different stocks within the same industry or across different industries and sectors.
DXY-- That candle, though! Reassurance, perhaps?Things are getting interesting! My colleagues don't
think it's time to start getting aggressive on the dollar,
with the main point of emphasis being that rate hikes are
supposed to slow, or not continue increasing as we continue
forward this year. I value my constituents opinions and will
consider it... But, no risk, no reward! Plus, I'm grateful to not
be so attached to my ideas. As long as we are extracting value
from the markets we participate in, who cares if we are right
or wrong in our guesses?
What markets are you focused on currently? Let me know!
As always, happy trading, and Godspeed.
OPEC’s supply cuts pre-empt economic weaknessThe Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) producers surprised the market with a decision on Sunday 2 April 2023 to lower production limits by more than 1mn barrels per day (bpd) from May through the end of 2023. This decision was announced ahead of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled on 3 April and was contrary to market expectations that the committee would keep policy unchanged. Over the prior week, OPEC+ ministers were giving public assurances that they would stick to their production targets for the entire year. This cut tells us that OPEC+ is pre-empting weaker demand into the year and was looking to shore up the market.
OPEC+ announcement may have caught speculators by surprise
It is evident Sunday’s decision caught the market by surprise evident from the commitment of trader’s report which showed net speculative positioning in Brent crude oil futures at -44k contracts were 146% below the 5-year average. Sentiment on the crude oil market had been weak prior to the decision.
Demand outlook remains soft amidst weaker economic backdrop
OPEC has been markedly dovish on oil demand for some time relative to other forecasters such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This cut helps solve the disparity that existed between OPEC and the EIA. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 2mn bpd in 2023. A significant portion of this growth (nearly 710,000bpd) is reliant on Chinese oil demand . Given that such a large amount of demand hinges on a single economy poses a risk to the demand outlook as the pace of China’s recovery post re-opening has not been as robust as previously anticipated. At the same time, tightening credit conditions owing to the recent banking crisis is also likely to weigh on growth forecasts in the rest of the developed world. Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) indicators suggest manufacturing activity has contracted since September 2022.
Supply outlook will be driven by new OPEC+ cuts
Since Russia has been producing less than its notional limit, the reduction on actual production will be less than 1mn bpd. But with Saudi Arabia committing to voluntary reduction of 500,000bpd we would expect the overall decline in OPEC supply to be around 900,000bpd by the beginning of May 2023. Assuming OPEC production holding at the recent 28.9mn bpd for April, our balances would point to an equilibrium in Q2 and a return to a deficit in Q3 and Q4. This deficit is largely a function of OPEC+ cuts as opposed to stronger demand globally. The front end of the Brent crude oil futures curve remains in backwardation with a roll yield of +0.4%
OPEC+ producers can also cut without the fear that they will lose significant market share to non-OPEC members. Previously, OPEC+ would be reluctant to let prices rise too high, as it would incentivise a supply response from US producers. However, US producers today appear more focussed on capital discipline and maximizing shareholder returns. The US also has limited capacity to plug the shortfall created by OPEC+ cuts owing to last year’s unprecedented release from strategic US oil reserves (now at a 40-year low).
Conclusion
In the short term, OPEC production cuts are almost always supportive evident from the recent price reaction Brent crude oil prices have risen (+6.54% ). However, over the medium term, the price response to cuts have been more mixed as they do tend to signal underlying weakness in the supply/demand balance. Either OPEC countries are expecting demand to be significantly weaker or doubt oil production in Russia will decline as sharply as forecasted.
So, with speculative positioning at currently low levels alongside further inventory draws expected later in the year, the risks are titled towards the upside for crude oil prices. However, given the uncertainty in the macro environment, we expect the upside in prices to be capped at about US$90 per barrel.
DXY-- Longing opportunity Wednesday-FridayStill feeling very neutral regarding the US Dollar, but in order to extract value
from a market, you have to take risks, and manage those risks properly.
Consider waiting for more confirmation that we are breaking out from this
small timeframe downtrend, and entering on the retest..
Expect more volatility heading into the NYSE open Wednesday, followed by
a lot q/q news, etc. on Thurs & Friday.
As always, happy trading, and Godspeed.
BTCUSD-- First look in sometime.I thought I'd document my BTCUSD chart because its been
awhile.. I took hold of some way back in 2018, which seems like
another lifetime ago. Anyways, it's always fun to take a
peek whenever I have some time. I have another perspective
that I'm going to check out as well, I'll be sure to publish it
eventually, & that link will be down below.
I am not trading BTCUSD as I write this..
I had some time this morning before book club. We are
currently reading "See You at the Top" by Zig Ziglar. A
wonderful read so far.
What books do you recommend?
Leave a comment telling me any suggestions.
As always, happy trading, and to change things up for the
first time ever, instead of "good luck", I will be using "Godspeed"
from here on out.
As always, happy trading, and Godspeed.
DXY-- Last trading attempt approaching Friday's openPlease take a look, enjoy, and criticize the last few postings I've made regarding
the DXY this week. Traders know there is not much to say. This truly is a beautiful game we
play. A never ending game, at that. I'm still trying to find my footing, my balance,
if you will, on the TV platform. Who has a question? Who wants to discuss? My
main studies have been on Fibonacci levels, general/typical market structure,
and, of course, the infamous left-wing news power-structure and how it affects
participant sentiment. Go long, baby. He's about to throw it. Just my opinion.
"Keep it simple, stupid."
As always, happy trading, and good luck!
DXY-- Balancing risk management & your ideas!The next level to look for in my eyes if the USD continues to gain
strength (other than typical psych levels) is 100.0 ish.
Refer to this chart & other postings of mine regarding the DXY/USD if your
looking to get a better grasp of my perspective. (Links below) It is also important
to keep in mind the weight of the incoming news this week. Remember to
use discernment when deciding how you choose to risk your money, whether it be
day trading or investing. (Big news this week.)
I'm still long.. for what it's worth, but I'm technically neutral.
As always, happy trading, & good luck!
SIVB drop of 60% in one dayWhile everyone, including FED, is assuring that banks are adequately capitalised and there is nothing to worry about.
These are not good signs.
Manage your portfolio risk.
DXY-- Who's ready? >:) [Candle Alt. Version]Enjoy the ride everyone. Should be a fun year in this high volatility zone.
IYKYK, "makes sense, right?", etc. blah, blah.
Received some news letters on CMF's this week from investment affiliates.
Be sure to see what the 95 is being fed as we approach Q1/Q2.
3 Major talking points seem to be trending.
As always, happy trading, and good luck!
DXY-- Who's ready? >:)Enjoy the ride everyone. Should be a fun year in this high volatility zone.
IYKYK, "makes sense, right?", etc. blah, blah.
Received some news letters on CMF's this week from investment affiliates.
Be sure to see what the 95 is being fed as we approach Q1/Q2.
3 Major talking points seem to be trending.
As always, happy trading, and good luck!
Macro and crypto: What should traders and investors expect?Hello, everyone! Today we would like to discuss macro and crypto, what affects that, what depends on that and what to expect from the market and when the new bull cycle will start
A LITTLE BIT OF THEORY
1. US PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) – macroeconomic indicator that shows the level of business activity.
2. DGS 1&5 – average 1 and 5 year US Treasury yield.
3. FED Funds Rate – the interest rate at which U.S. banks lend their excess reserves for short terms to other banks.
Let’s figure out what's GOOD and what's BAD for the crypto market
1. PMI
Values above 50 are a good sign, the economy is growing, markets have more liquidity.
Values below 50 are a bad sign, the economy is shrinking, there is less and less liquidity in the market.
2. DGS 1/5
High rates are bad, people are used to investing where there is a clear yield and clear rules for receiving returns, where there is less risk.
Low rates are good, bonds do not bring profitability, people are forced to choose more profitable, and therefore risky instruments for the preservation and multiplication of capital
3. FED Funds Rate
High rates are bad, the interest on capital and liquidity is becoming more and more, the required level of profitability must be higher than the prime rate + the rate of the individual counterparty. Liquidity becomes less and less, access to it becomes more and more difficult.
Low rates are good, liquidity is available to everyone, everyone can take funds to realize their goals and objectives, the overall profitability of any business is quite low. Lots of free money in the market.
Which market can be called BULLISH?
1. US PMI values above 50
2. Low DGS values 1/5
3. Low FED Funds Rate
That's the kind of market we had from April 2020 until November-December 2021. At that point, many realized that the music was no longer playing. The FED hammered the last nail in the coffin of the bull market in February-March 2022, and that's when all the fun and the official bear cycle began.
How do we know if the market has flipped and we're growing up again? Recommendations for PATIENT TRADERS
1. US PMI will come out of the crisis – current values are ATL from May 2020
2. The FED will do a soft landing, beat inflation and start lowering rates – very bullish signal. The important thing is to beat inflation, otherwise our bull market will be very short-lived, or the next bear market will be super painful.
3. DGS 1/5 will fall to spring 2020 values
If you see all of this, then unpack your stackable piggy bank and get ready for a hot period, we will be back in the game and the market of universal profits. As practice shows, everyone will have 3 to 6 months to get into their positions and get ready to take off. Also, remember that the market can be irrational, the main thing for everyone is to let their strategy survive it. Markets are capable of being irrational longer than traders will be solvent.
What to do now?
We’ve tried to give an answer to the question in our previous article. And we still stick to this local position. This article will allow you to look at the crypto market within macro analysis and the overall picture. But then everything depends on you!
Tell us if you study the macroeconomics rates, which indicators you use and which topics you would like to discuss! Don't forget to check links below and check our trading terminal!
NFA & DYOR