Loonie
Loonie looks ready to shift in outlookUSDCAD has dropped for a second straight day, putting in some more distance from the 20-month peak that was seen at 1.3663. A rise in oil prices amid a revival in risk appetite in global markets has helped the Canadian Dollar, while US Fed funds futures have now priced out Fed tightening expectations for 2019 and are factoring in a 25 bp rate cut at the 18-month horizon.
USDCAD has descended into two-week low territory under 1.3431 . The early December low at 1.3160 provides a downside waypoint. Immediate support is set at S2 at 1.3350 , which coincides with 50-day EMA. Resistance for today is set at 1.3495 (4 consecutive session peak in the 4 hour chart). In the long-term Resistance stands at the 2018 peak, at 1.3663 .
Focus today will be on the dual releases of the US and Canadian jobs reports for December. The US version is expected to show a 205k headline rise (median 177k), with the unemployment rate ticking down to a new cycle low of 3.6% from 3.7% in the prior three months.
On balance, the data should be supportive of USDCAD.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
AUDCAD ready to melt?Price pattern looks to have formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, and price looks firm to start breaking down.
On the 4H, Daily and Weekly charting, price action is signalling a bearish stance, especially with weekly charting showing weakness in any upward momentum. This may be a long swing trade which is also very dependent on any updates about the ongoing trade war.
Using the Fib. retracement tool, it seems that the 50% and 61.8% fib. level coincides fairly well with my targets.
TP 1 @ 0.94300 range, and TP 2 @ 0.93600 range.
Always wait for a good confirmation candle (i.e. strong bearish candle) as a decisive factor to enter any trade. Likewise, manage your risk as well and cut short losing trades.
Disclaimer: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and does not construe an offer or solicitation to engage in any activity regarding the subject matter.
USDCAD daily reviewThe US Dollar is trading in a triangle-like formation pattern against the Canadian Dollar. The currency pair tested the lower boundary of the triangle pattern at 1.3340 during Friday’s trading session.
Currently, the exchange rate is trading near the bottom border of the pattern and could be set for a breakout.
If this breakout occurs, the currency exchange rate will likely target a swing low of 1.3320 within this trading session.
On the other hand, if the support level formed by the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.3374 holds, the rate will move north towards the 1.3419 mark.
USD/CAD (18 Dec 2018) *It shall go lower.View On USD/CAD (18 Dec 2018)
It may (or) may not go into the immediate trending mode, but sooner or later it shall go lower.
Let's see.
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Our Analysis
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SHORT (entry is valid as long as the price is below 1.345)
SL 1.358
TP1 1.337
TP2 1.332
TP3 1.329
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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CAD buoyed by weaker oilBy Andria Pichidi - December 7, 2018
EURCAD plunged to 1 .51 area from 1.5250 high following the combined stellar Canada jobs report, and a softer US employment outcome. As an added bonus for the CAD, oil prices surged higher on news that OPEC+ have agreed to a production cut.
The breakout of S1 and the 20-period SMA in the 4-hour chart are, likely to lead to a retest of S2 and S3. Meanwhile, momentum indicators are also supporting that negative intraday momentum, as RSI just crossed below 50 and MACD turns negative. This is suggesting consolidation in the short term.
Therefore, Wednesday's low and S2 could be the next immediate Support area for the pair , at 1.5030- 1.5065 .
Immediate Resistance level for EURCAD is set at 1.5225 , while the next Resistance is at the 200-day sMA at 1.5275 .
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
OPEC-JMMC Day: Oil and Loonie – Tentative moves?By Andria Pichidi - November 20, 2018
USDCAD and USOil, H4 and Daily
USOil prices reached an overnight high of USD 57.44 per barrel. The 4-day run higher in Oil prices, after a period of sharp declines, has helped the Canadian Dollar find a toehold. The contract has been supported by talk of a proposed production cut into year-end by OPEC and Russia, which was the main drive of yesterday’s sharp move higher, ahead of the December 6 meeting to be held in Vienna.
Bloomberg reported that Russia is in wait and see mode with regards to production cuts, quoting Russia energy minister Novak as saying producers need to “better understand both the current conditions and the winter outlook” before agreeing to cuts.
WTI crude is softer today, with prices having fallen back to levels just under $57 per barrel, after a 4-day rebound phase. Meanwhile USDCAD has retreated around the day’s Pivot Point at 1.3170 after pegging a 3-session high at 1.3202 yesterday. This puts Friday’s 12-day low at 1.3126 back in the scopes.
In the daily time frame, the cross has been seen moving within an ascending triangle since mid October, rebounding yesterday away from its lower trend line. As the price holds above the rising trend line, USDCAD remains in strong bullish sentiment in the medium picture. Only in case of a penetration along with the break of 20-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level since October’s dip, would it find a Support level within 1 .3065-1.3078 area (38.2% Fib. level and 100-day SMA.)
Currently however, the market seems to be in a bullish mode overall, given that USDCAD is still trading above all the daily SMAs and with momentum indicators holding in the positive area. RSI has flattened above neutral and MACD dropped slightly below the trigger line, but remains well above zero line. Hence despite the fact that in the long term bullish bias holds strongly, in the near future, some consolidation is possible based on the flat RSI and small decline in MACD but also on the fact that 100 and 50 day SMA have been flattened in the daily chart. Resistance to the upside is set at yesterday’s high at 1.3200.
A jump above this resistance level could meet November’s high of 1.3263 . Further increases could move the price towards the 1.3300-1.3320 area.
As CAD and Oil are vulnerable to the possible OPEC plans to cut production, any remarks today from officials attending the OPEC-JMMC meeting, will weigh on the two assets. Nevertheless, BoC Wilkins speaks later today as well.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
NZD CAD SELL (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR – CANADIAN DOLLAR)Hi there. Price is forming a reversal pattern to change it’s direction. Wait for the price to hit the top of the pattern and watch strong price action for sell. We forecast that the down move will be corrective or will form a continuation pattern to the upside. Let’s wait and watch how it behaves.