NZD/USD at Strong Support: Is a Move Higher on the Horizon?Since the end of September 2024, the NZD/USD pair has been in a pronounced downward trend, experiencing a depreciation of over 8% without any significant retracements. This downward movement has found crucial support around the 0.5850 level, where the price is now showing early signs of exhaustion. This support level has been tested on previous occasions, indicating it may serve as a key area of interest for buyers. As the market awaits a potential upward corrective movement, traders should remain vigilant, particularly with the upcoming release of US Retail Sales data, which could significantly impact the pair's volatility.
Scenario 1: Upward Correction
The rejection of the support at 0.5850 and the formation of a potential bottom signal the presence of buyers. A break above the previous day's high at 0.5885 could confirm the entry of buying pressure. The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.6040 serves as the first projected target for this upward correction, coinciding with an important resistance zone.
A buying opportunity may arise if the price breaks yesterday's high at 0.5885. In this instance, we could see the formation of an Engulfing Pattern on the daily chart, a strong bullish signal.
Initial Target : The target could be set around 0.6040, where mid-term resistance aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop Loss: A suitable stop loss might be positioned below the support line, around 0.5800, to protect against adverse movements.
Scenario 2: Continuation of the Downtrend
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 0.5850 support level, it will immediately encounter another significant support zone at 0.5790. Given the proximity of these support levels, a 60-pip move may not justify the risk, especially considering the sharp downward trend observed over the past two months.
Potential Short Trade if Major Support is Broken:
From a risk/reward perspective, a short opportunity could become attractive only if the price breaks below the 0.5790 level. In this case, the next level of support would be sufficiently distant to offer a favourable risk/reward ratio for traders.
In summary, the NZD/USD pair is currently at a pivotal support level, displaying signs of potential exhaustion. The next price movements will be critical in determining whether we witness a significant corrective rally or a continuation of the downtrend. Traders should exercise caution, particularly in light of forthcoming economic data, and closely monitor key levels to make informed trading decisions.
Disclaimer:
74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
