Essential Tips for Newbie Day Traders: Forex and Gold Trading
Entering the world of day trading can be both exciting and daunting, especially for those who are new to the game. This article aims to provide simple yet valuable recommendations for beginner day traders specifically focusing on forex and gold trading. 💼💰🚀
1. Educate Yourself:
Before diving into day trading, it is crucial to understand the intricacies of the forex and gold markets. Take the time to learn about the basic terminology, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and different trading strategies. Knowledge is your best weapon in this realm. 📚✍️📈
Start by reading books, attending webinars or courses, or even joining online trading communities to gain insight into successful day trading techniques.
2. Practice with a Demo Account:
To avoid unnecessary losses, it is highly recommended to practice trading using a demo account. This allows you to gain hands-on experience without the risk of losing real money. Take the time to experiment with different strategies and understand how the market works. 📊📝💡
Tradingview paper trading offers demo accounts where you can simulate real trading scenarios and test your skills.
3. Develop a Trading Plan:
A well-defined trading plan is essential for any day trader. Specify your goals, risk tolerance, and trading style. Determine the maximum amount you are willing to risk per trade and set realistic profit targets. Stick to your plan and avoid impulsive decisions. 📝🎯💼
Example: Decide on a risk-to-reward ratio, such as 1:2, which means you are willing to risk $1 to potentially earn $2, and only take trades that meet this criteria.
4. Manage Your Risks:
Risk management is a crucial aspect of day trading. Never risk more than you can afford to lose and always set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. It is important to maintain a disciplined approach to preserve your capital. 💪💸📉
Example: Let's say you have $10,000 as your trading capital. Set a maximum loss limit per trade, such as $200, and ensure your stop-loss order reflects this limit.
5. Keep Up with Market News:
Stay informed about global events, economic indicators, and market news that can impact the forex and gold markets. Develop a routine of reading relevant financial news and reports to stay ahead of market trends. 🌍📰💼
Important events like central bank announcements, political developments, or changes in commodity prices can significantly affect currency and gold prices.
Tradingview nicely displays the coming news on the horizontal scale of a price shart. Just click on a circle and you will see the coming related events.
In conclusion, starting out as a newbie day trader in the forex and gold markets requires a combination of knowledge, practice, discipline, and risk management. By following these simple recommendations, you will be better equipped to navigate the markets and enhance your chances of success in day trading. 💪📊✨
Learning
BITCOIN SHORTER TIME FRAME UPDATE Bitcoin (BTC) is currently operating within a bullish channel and has recently experienced a bounce off the support provided by the ascending trendline and the 100-day moving average (MA). The cryptocurrency is presently trading within the Ichimoku cloud, accompanied by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), signaling a bearish divergence move.
For bullish trend confirmation, it is imperative for the bulls to regain momentum and achieve a decisive breakout above the horizontal resistance level, approximately around 38,000. Conversely, a sustained breakdown of the ascending trendline would suggest the potential for a short-term correction.
In simpler terms, Bitcoin is following an upward trend, finding support at the ascending trendline and the 100-day moving average. However, caution is advised as the RSI is signaling a potential bearish divergence. A clear breakthrough above the resistance at 38,000 would be a positive indicator for a bullish continuation, while a sustained break below the ascending trendline could indicate a short-term correction in the market.
This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if you consider upvoting it.
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
"Bitcoin Halving: Your Complete Guide""Hello everyone, I hope you are all doing well. Without further delay, let's proceed to the chart."
"The Bitcoin halving is a significant event in the cryptocurrency market, happening approximately every four years. It involves cutting the block reward for miners in half, reducing the new BTC supply by 50%. The next halving is expected in early 2024, occurring after 840,000 blocks, and will decrease the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block."
"The hard-coded technical mechanism forms the foundation of scarcity, providing Bitcoin with its value proposition as verifiably finite digital gold. This comprehensive guide will delve into Bitcoin halving dates, their impact on price and mining, and why they hold significant importance."
What is Bitcoin Halving?
The Bitcoin halving refers to the periodic reduction by half of the block reward granted to miners for solving the cryptographic puzzle to add new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain. This action effectively cuts in half the quantity of new Bitcoin introduced into circulation with each discovered block. Given the consistent reduction in supply alongside ongoing demand growth, these anticipated halving events typically trigger an increase in Bitcoin's market price over the subsequent 12–18 months.
Bitcoin was ingeniously designed with a fixed and capped supply of 21 million coins, gradually released through mining rewards. The periodic halving events are crucial to gradually diminishing new issuance until the total supply cap is reached. This systematic reduction in inflation enhances scarcity in a predictable manner.
Historical Significance and Market Impact
Each Bitcoin halving event has historically brought about significant market dynamics. Previous halvings have resulted in increased demand and subsequent price appreciation for Bitcoin. The decrease in block rewards directly influences the available supply, frequently creating a supply-demand imbalance that propels the price upward. After past halvings, Bitcoin has undergone remarkable bull runs, culminating in new all-time highs.
Implications for the Cryptocurrency Industry:
The Bitcoin halving event carries several implications for the broader cryptocurrency industry. Firstly, it reinforces Bitcoin's scarcity and limited supply, positioning it as a store of value akin to precious metals like gold. The halving also serves as an incentive for miners to secure the network by contributing computational power, as reduced block rewards can potentially impact mining profitability. Furthermore, the event heightens investor and public awareness, drawing attention to the innovative nature of cryptocurrencies.
Historical Bitcoin Halving Dates:
November 28, 2012 — Block 210,000 mined (Reward decreased to 25 BTC)
July 9, 2016 — Block 420,000 mined (Reward decreased to 12.5 BTC)
May 11, 2020 — Block 630,000 mined (Reward decreased to 6.25 BTC)
March 2024 (Estimated) — Block 840,000 mined (Reward expected to decrease to 3.125 BTC)
Halving Price Impact Patterns:
While various complex macroeconomic and sentiment factors contribute to Bitcoin's well-known price volatility, halvings have consistently preceded significant bull runs.
Following the initial two halvings, BTC experienced substantial increases within 12–18 months. For instance, Bitcoin was valued at under $12 during the first halving in November 2012, soaring over 100x to approximately $1,150 by December 2013.
The 2016 halving foreshadowed Bitcoin's remarkable 2017 bull run, reaching nearly $20,000. Just nine months after the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs surpassing $64,000 before retracing to a lower trading range.
This recurring pattern supports the notion that halvings shape Bitcoin's boom-and-bust cycles by significantly limiting new supply issuance while user adoption and demand continue to grow exponentially.
However, accurately predicting the timing and magnitude of peak prices following halvings remains challenging due to the multitude of variables influencing market sentiment swings.
Fibonacci Retracement/Extensions- How & Why? | Live ExampleFibonacci retracements in technical analysis of various assets use a mathematical sequence discovered by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci. This sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on. In stock trading, Fibonacci retracements are used to identify potential levels of support or resistance during price corrections.
Imagine you have a stock that has been rising in price for some time. Suddenly, it starts to decline. Traders who use Fibonacci retracements believe that during this downward movement, the stock price will likely retrace or bounce back to certain levels before continuing its downward trend.
These retracement levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence. The most commonly used levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. For example, if a stock's price drops from 100 to 80, traders would expect it to bounce back to around 88.20 (38.2% retracement), 90 (50% retracement), or 93.20 (61.8% retracement) before continuing its decline.
While their effectiveness is debated just like any other tool, many traders including myself believe that these levels act as psychological support or resistance points due to the large number of market participants who follow this approach.
Let us get back on the example above.
I drew a trendline which had helped me back in 2021 to predict the top in GOLD. This is the perfect example of how EVERY PRICE movement matters. The Fibonacci levels are derived from levels from 2008. In this example the Fibonacci extension level 3.618 held as a perfect resistance for the price of GOLD.
2008 to 2023, isn't this amazing? How long can a single price movement can have its affect!
How to draw a Fibonacci Retracement/Extension?
It's fairly simple. Just plot one end of the fib to the high of the price movement and the other to the low or vice versa.
I'll answering all your queries in the comments below. Please feel free to reach out!
$BTC Daily $42K New Target and Stop loss $36k?This was my earlier analysis on BTCUSD and you can find it there
Based on my relearning of Ichimoku and Fib, looks like 38K is a big resistance on Daily. It has to break it and then 40s is next! Let me know what you think and how I can improve
My new target is FWB:42K and stop loss is 36K based on Fib and Kijun Sen
$STNE Fibonacci and Ichimoku Daily As always learning or going back to learning. A chart a day makes one happy every day!
Take Profit and Stop Loss
Used Fibonacci 4 Hour for Stop loss and for take profit used Daily Fibonacci. Now Ichimoku is the base chart for guidance
You always learn by doing it. I bought it on my long term plan and am also setting an alert for this on Trading View.
Stages of a Downtrend: Insights from AI AnalysisDear Respected Members of the TradingView Community,
I start with some straightforward insights. I've executed significant crypto sales this month. However, my decision was not because of any pre-established forecasts. The motivation behind my decision to part with cryptocurrencies like BTC was primarily due to liquidity challenges. I found it increasingly difficult to execute orders without impacting the market by moving prices, widening spreads, or settling for unfavorable market orders. Often, I had to exercise more patience than desired while waiting for the fulfillment of my limit orders. Eventually, when suitable over-the-counter (OTC) opportunities presented themselves, I decided to divest from these challenging assets. It's important to note that this decision was independent of price predictions.
Y ou can consider various factors beyond price movement for an investment choice. Factors such as trading volume, liquidity, spreads, and transaction fees can add value to your decision-making process. The focus points of this discussion are price forecasts, where trading volume is one of the influential variables.
F or those of you who have been tracking the trading volume candles from December 20, 2020, to the present, you may have observed a consistent decline in trading volume. Deep Neural Networks (DNN) tend to associate this declining volume with a waning interest in BTC-USD. While the overall trend for BTC has been bullish since November 14, 2022, DNN suggests that this rising trend could be a retracement within a broader bearish development that began on November 15, 2021. The significance of understanding the trend lies in assessing the risk-reward ratio. Generally, positions aligned with the prevailing trend offer a more favorable risk-reward ratio. An adaptive DNN model can add more than programmed indicators as it can adapt to changing market conditions and provide certainty metrics regarding potential trends.
A s per my adaptive DNN analysis, there is a 70% probability that the bearish trend will persist, compared to a 30% probability for a bullish trend. However, market dynamics are influenced by multiple trends, each exerting varying degrees of impact at different times. Fuzzy Logic Trading (FLT) reveals that factors associated with the bearish trend currently hold a 60% influence on BTC-USD, with bullish parameters contributing 40%. Probabilities offer insights into potential future scenarios, while membership degrees provide a more nuanced perspective on the actual forces at play within a given scenario.
A t present, the price of Bitcoin is approaching a juncture defined by multiple trendlines that may serve as resistance levels. One of these resistance lines previously served as a support level for local bottoms on January 2, 2023, March 13, 2023, and June 12, 2023. However, since Bitcoin breached this support line, it may have transitioned into a resistance line. It is just one example of a trendline that could act as a barrier, given the broader horizontal resistance zone extending between $38,000 and $32,000.
A nother notable resistance line within this zone is the trendline connecting the peaks of the bullish retracement tail on April 10, 2023, July 3, 2023, and the present. These examples illustrate the potential resistance trendlines, with the entire zone representing a supply margin where additional barriers may exist. It's worth noting that bullish trends can possess the strength to break through resistance trendlines or zones, transforming them into support trendlines and demand zones.
W hile an AI-driven analysis suggests a 30% probability of a continuing bullish trend, the market exhibits a 40% bullish influence from external factors such as news and prominent opinions, as determined by my Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithm and mathematical tools from FLT. Should the BTC price establish a demand zone and initiate an upward trajectory from the support trendlines, the market could witness new local highs, potentially surmounting at least one of the aforementioned resistance trendlines within the supply zone. While this scenario does not guarantee a parabolic surge, it remains a possibility.
O n one hand, optimistic investor sentiment could potentially transform even the sharply rising resistance trendline into a support level, as indicated by the blue forecast in the chart. On the other hand, a 70% probability of a continuing bearish trend, as suggested by dynamic DNN, and a 60% bearish influence per FLT, even in the presence of a bullish trend, implies a degree of caution.
I n Finance, the path to profit is often a winding road, with ups and downs that can confound even the most seasoned investors. While many market participants tend to focus on bullish scenarios, it's essential to understand the various stages of a downtrend. Let's explore these phases and gain some insights from artificial intelligence. Every significant downtrend begins with a subtle sign – a warning of what's to come. Unfortunately, this early signal is soft while the bullish sentiment prevails. This initial warning is crucial for astute investors who pay attention to the nuances of the market. As the uptrend falters and inevitably fails, it becomes evident that the market is in a state of decline. This point often lures individuals into considering an all-in strategy, driven by the conviction that "It always goes back up." This misguided belief can lead to significant losses. Following the decline, there's typically a rally, which sometimes recovers a significant percentage from the previous drop. This rally can be deceptive, luring investors believing that a new bullish trend is underway. However, it's crucial to exercise caution and not be swayed solely by short-term gains. Tragically, the anticipated bullish trend often turns out to be a trap, leading to a prolonged and persistent downtrend. This phase can be particularly challenging for investors who have been misled by the allure of the initial rally.
M oreover, artificial intelligence has made significant strides in the field of market analysis. By employing Dimensionality Reduction (DR) techniques, AI can detect potential bearish butterfly patterns on full-timeframe BTC charts available through pricing engines. Additionally, AI has identified the presence of a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern in the yearly timeframe of 2023. It's important to bear in mind that patterns are essentially estimations of probabilities and potential volatility structures. Any pattern can break in either an upward or downward direction, signaling either a bullish or bearish scenario, respectively.
E xamining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the spread between the price and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 20 reveals that they currently fall within a historically and statistically oversold range. Additionally, there is a lack of confirmation for breaching any of the aforementioned resistance lines, let alone the supply zone itself.
I n summary, a scalping strategy within the supply zone from the upper trendline to the lower boundary, as depicted in the short position on the chart, could be considered. If the bearish trend persists, other strategies may extend this short position beyond the resistance zone, potentially reaching the EMA 200 at around $25,000, where Bitcoin could encounter an underlying demand zone and various support trendlines.
I t's essential to remember that trading decisions should not be solely based on price forecasts. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by various factors, and price is just one of them. This is not intended as investment advice. I encourage you to conduct your research and take full responsibility for your funds. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
I n conclusion, understanding the stages of a downtrend is vital for any investor seeking to navigate the complexities of financial markets. Additionally, the integration of AI analysis can provide valuable insights, enhancing our ability to make informed decisions in the ever-evolving world of finance. Remember that no prediction is foolproof, and prudent risk management remains essential in the world of investment.
Warm regards,
Ely
Combining technical analysis at BNBUSD There are a lot of technical analysis methods to use, my favorite method is to combine several technical analysis and look for the same point as strong support to buy and strong resistance to take profit.
In this example, I use chart pattern, fibonacci ABCD pattern and classic support and resistance.
Chart pattern
channel up with medium line perform strongly, yesterday this medium line broke down and tried to reach channel up support.
channel up support can be a good entry point with target at medium line or maximum target at channel up resistance
Classic support and resistance
Resistance become support or support become resistance also a strong technical analysis method.
in this chart, we have 23 October resistance at $238.6, and now it has become new support.
ABCD Fibonacci Pattern
Fibonacci are the best pattern to combine with channel up, especially if we have symmetrical channel up.
In many cases, 0.618 touch channel up support and 1.618 touch channel up resistance as bullish target.
I am a naked trade analyst, so in every analysis I do not use technical indicators, but sometimes people used to combine technical indicator, ie. moving average, EMA, MacD, Bollinger band, and many others. As long as it is accurate and profitable, use it.
Let me know in comment below what kind of combination you like most.
"Stop Loss Essentials: Preventing Losses in Uptrends"Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities.
Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange.
I post short mid and long-term trade setups too.
Let’s get to the chart!
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart, Do not consider financial advice.
Common Reasons Why Traders Lose Money Even in an Uptrend
#Not Setting Stop-Loss:
#Not Conducting Technical Analysis:
#Going against the Trends:
#Following the Herd:
#Being Impatient:
#Not doing Homework or Research:
#Averaging on Losing Position:
Buy low sell high' is the motto. As simple as it sounds, why do most people lose money trading or investing?
There are four major mistakes that most beginners make:
1. Excessive Confidence
This stems from the idea that people think of themselves as special. They think they can 'crack the code' in the stock market that 99.9% of people fail to, and eventually make a living trading and investing. However, taking into consideration the fact that more people lose money in the market, this form of wishful thinking is the same mentality as going into a casino feeling lucky. You may actually get lucky and win big the first few times, but in the end, the house always wins.
2. Distorted Judgements
While simplicity is key, the approach most beginners make in trading and investing are too simplistic, to the extend where it's hard to even call it a trading logic or reason to invest. They spot a few reoccurring patterns within the market, and this is almost as if they discovered fire. It doesn't take long to realize that the "pattern" they spotted was never based on any solid reasoning, or worse, wasn't even a pattern at all in the first place.
3. Herding Behavior
The fundamentals of this is also deeply rooted in a gambling mindset. Beginners are attracted to the idea of a single trade or investment that will make them a millionaire. However, they fail to realize that there is no such thing. Trading and investing is nothing like winning the lottery. It's about making consistent profits that compound throughout time. While people should definitely look for assets that have high liquidity and some volatility , the get-rich-quick mentality drags irrational beginners into overextended/overbought stocks that eventually drop drastically.
4. Risk Aversion
Risk aversion is a psychological trait embedded within all of mankind's DNA. Winning is fun, but we can't tolerate losing. We tend to avoid risk, even when the potential reward is worth pursuing. As such, many beginners take extremely small amounts of profits, in fear that they might close their position at a loss, trading with a terrible risk reward ratio. In the long run, their willingness to not take any risks leads to losses.
Depending on the price action, they also go through seven phases of psychological stages:
- Anxiety
- Interest
- Confidence
- Greed
- Doubt
- Concern
- Regret
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Lack of Discipline
An intraday trader must stick to a proper plan. A full-fledged intraday plan includes profit targets, factors to consider, methods to put a stop loss, and ways to select the right trading hours. The trading plan provides a comprehensive overview of how trading should be executed. Also, you can keep a record of trades executed during the day with the performance analysis of each stock at the end of the day. Such records help you identify the weak areas in your trading strategy and correct them. It is very important to be disciplined as a trader, the proper discipline will help you minimize the losses and maintain your capital.
Not Setting Proper Trading Limits
In intraday trading, the success lies in managing the risk. You should pre-define a stop loss and profit target when entering intraday trading. This strategy itself is an important part of trading discipline and this is where most people fail. For instance, if you incur a loss in the first hour itself, you should shut down the trading terminal for the rest of the day. You should also have an overall capital loss limit in place, it will safeguard you against trading losses.
Compensating for a Rapid Loss
This is one of the common mistakes in the trading community. When a trader incurs a loss, he/she either tries to average a position or overtrades excessively to recover the loss. This further leads to a greater loss and put them into more trouble. Losses are a part of intraday trading, instead of overtrading, it is wise to accept the loss, analyze the strategy and make improvements from the next day.
Heavy Dependency on Tips
Nowadays, there are ample of intraday tips flowing everywhere on the digital media. It is a common phenomenon for a trader to rely on these external tips, however, this needs to be avoided. The best way to learn intraday trading is by gradually learning how to read charts, understanding structures, and interpreting results on your own. Many traders refrain from taking these efforts and because of this, they end up on the losing side. The Beyond App by Nirmal Bang provides deeper insights into the market, the technical research offered by Nirmal Bang is spot on. You can use that research for reference, however, nothing can beat practical experience.
Not Keeping Track of Current Affairs
The external news, events, and tragedies do have an impact on the stock market. Hence, it is important for an intraday trader to keep a track of the Indian as well as global markets. Even the performance of global markets has an impact on the movement of Indian markets. Make your trade after the news or event has been announced, do not try to speculate the market based on the news.
There are even instances when traders do not have any sound trading strategy, they just make decisions based on gut feelings or emotions. One needs to remember that intraday trading in itself is a skill, it is not a gamble, it takes time to develop proficiency, you cannot expect rapid results. The above are some of the major reasons why intraday traders lose money, ensure that you are disciplined enough, stick to a proper strategy, analyze your strategy at regular intervals, and things will fall in place.
we will discuss 3 classic trading strategies and stop placement rules.
1) The first trading strategy is a trend line strategy.
The technique implies buying/selling the touch of strong trend lines, expecting a strong bullish/bearish reaction from that.
If you are buying a trend line, you should identify the previous low.
Your stop loss should lie strictly below that.
If you are selling a trend line, you should identify the previous high.
Your stop loss should lie strictly above that.
2) The second trading strategy is a breakout trading strategy.
The technique implies buying/selling the breakout of a structure,
expecting a further bullish/bearish continuation.
If you are buying a breakout of resistance, you should identify the previous low. Your stop loss should lie strictly below that.
If you are selling a breakout of support, you should identify the previous high. Your stop loss should lie strictly above that.
3) The third trading strategy is a range trading strategy.
The technique implies buying/selling the boundaries of horizontal ranges, expecting a bullish/bearish reaction from them.
If you are buying the support of the range, your stop loss should strictly lie below the lowest point of support.
If you are selling the resistance of the range, your stop loss should strictly lie above the highest point of resistance.
As you can see, these stop-placement techniques are very simple. Following them, you will avoid a lot of stop hunts and manipulations.
What Is a Stop-Loss Order?
A stop-loss order is an order placed with a broker to buy or sell a specific stock once the stock reaches a certain price. A stop-loss is designed to limit an investor's loss on a security position. For example, setting a stop-loss order for 10% below the price at which you bought the stock will limit your loss to 10%. Suppose you just purchased Microsoft (MSFT) at $20 per share. Right after buying the stock, you enter a stop-loss order for $18. If the stock falls below $18, your shares will then be sold at the prevailing market price.
Stop-limit orders are similar to stop-loss orders. However, as their name states, there is a limit on the price at which they will execute. There are then two prices specified in a stop-limit order: the stop price, which will convert the order to a sell order, and the limit price. Instead of the order becoming a market order to sell, the sell order becomes a limit order that will only execute at the limit price (or better).
Advantages of the Stop-Loss Order
The most important benefit of a stop-loss order is that it costs nothing to implement. Your regular commission is charged only once the stop-loss price has been reached and the stock must be sold.
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One way to think of a stop-loss order is as a free insurance policy.
Additionally, when it comes to stop-loss orders, you don't have to monitor how a stock is performing daily. This convenience is especially handy when you are on vacation or in a situation that prevents you from watching your stocks for an extended period.
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Stop-loss orders also help insulate your decision-making from emotional influences. People tend to "fall in love" with stocks. For example, they may maintain the false belief that if they give a stock another chance, it will come around. In actuality, this delay may only cause losses to mount.
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No matter what type of investor you are, you should be able to easily identify why you own a stock. A value investor's criteria will be different from the criteria of a growth investor, which will be different from the criteria of an active trader. No matter what the strategy is, the strategy will only work if you stick to it. So, if you are a hardcore buy-and-hold investor, your stop-loss orders are next to useless.
At the end of the day, if you are going to be a successful investor, you have to be confident in your strategy. This means carrying through with your plan. The advantage of stop-loss orders is that they can help you stay on track and prevent your judgment from getting clouded with emotion.
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Finally, it's important to realize that stop-loss orders do not guarantee you'll make money in the stock market; you still have to make intelligent investment decisions. If you don't, you'll lose just as much money as you would without a stop-loss (only at a much slower rate.)
Types of Stop-Loss orders
Fixed Stop Loss
The fixed stop is a stop loss order triggered when a particular pre-determined price is hit. Fixed stops can also be timed-based and are most commonly used as soon as the trade is placed.
Time-bound fixed stops are useful for investors who want to provide the position with a pre-set amount of time to profit prior to moving on to the next trade.
Only utilize time-based stops when positioned sized properly to permit major adverse swings in share price.
Trailing Stop-Loss Order
Trailing order caters to the capital gains protection of an investor, while simultaneously providing a hedge against any unexpected price downturns. It is set as a percentage of the total asset price, and the order to sell is triggered in case market prices fall below the stipulated level. However, in the case of a price rise, the trailing order adjusts automatically in tune with an overall increase in market valuation.
Suppose, in a trailing stop-loss market, an order for execution is set if the price of a security falls below 10% of the market value. Assuming the purchase price is 100 an order to sell the security is executed automatically by an authorised broker if the price falls below 90.
In case the share prices rise to 120, the trailing order stands at 10% of the current market price, which is 108. Hence, if prices consequently start falling after peaking at. 120, a stop-loss order will be executed at 108. It allows an individual to enjoy a capital gain of 8 (108 – 100) on his/her investment corpus.
Stop-Loss Order Vs Market Order
While a stop-loss order performs a sale of underlying securities provided the price falls below a prescribed limit, a market order is issued to a broker to conduct trade (both buying and selling) at the prevailing market price. Stop-loss orders are designed to reduce the risk factor, while market orders aim to increase liquidity in the stock market by eradicating the bid-ask spread difference. A market order is the most basic form of trade order placed in a stock market.
Stop-Loss Order and Limit Order
Limit orders execute a trade of stipulated securities if the price reaches a pre-set value. While a buy limit order facilitates the purchase of any securities if the price falls below the given limit, a sell limit order is executed if the price rises above the value. Limit orders are designed to maximise the profitability of an investment venture by maximising the bid-ask spread. It is in contrast to stop-loss orders, which are implemented only if the price is equal to the limit stated by investors, as a method of minimising losses in a bear market.
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Learning from Warren Buffett's 7 Major Investment ErrorsWarren Buffett's name resonates with success, particularly through investments in renowned companies such as Coca-Cola, American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Moody’s, Kraft Heinz, and more. He stands as a global icon, amassing a wealth exceeding USD 100 billion. Beyond his investment prowess, Buffett generously imparts his wisdom to millions worldwide. Among his many famous quotes, one emphasizes the importance of learning from others' mistakes.
Warren Buffett's 7 Major Investment Errors
I) Dexter Shoe Company
- In 1993, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway acquired Dexter Shoe Company, a decision he later regretted as his worst deal. Buffet made multiple significant mistakes in this acquisition.
- The first error was misjudging Dexter's potential. Berkshire bought Dexter due to its high return on capital employed but failed to consider the competitive threat posed by cheap shoes from countries like China. Buffet acknowledged this oversight in 1999, highlighting the increasing challenge for domestic producers in the face of a market flooded with 93% of 1.3 billion pairs of shoes purchased in the United States coming from abroad.
- The primary lesson here is the necessity of assessing a company's durable competitive advantage before investing. Durable competitiveness has transitioned from a good-to-have factor to a must-have for any business.
- Buffet's second mistake was financing the Dexter Shoe Company purchase with Berkshire Hathaway stock valued at 433 million dollars, rather than using cash. A single share of Berkshire's Class A stock was approximately USD 15,000 in 1993. Today, it is valued at USD 517,000.
- This decision didn't just cost Berkshire shareholders USD 433 million for a company that eventually became worthless; it resulted in a staggering loss of 15 billion dollars for Berkshire's shareholders.
- The crucial lesson derived from this experience is never to sacrifice successful investments to make risky bets.
II) Tesco
- Tesco, a British grocery chain, became a concern for Berkshire Hathaway when the company's ownership stake exceeded 5% by 2012. By 2013, signs of trouble at Tesco became evident, leading Berkshire to reduce its stake to 3.7%, amounting to an investment of nearly 1.7 billion dollars.
- In the subsequent months, Tesco's stock plummeted by nearly 50% due to declining sales, heightened competition from discount retailers, and an accounting scandal that attracted scrutiny from the UK's financial regulators.
- Buffett's mistake lay in hesitating to sell Tesco stocks despite recognizing these troubling signs. This delay resulted in a loss of approximately USD 444 million for Berkshire.
- The crucial lesson from this situation is the importance of conviction when making selling decisions. Just as one should invest with conviction, it is equally vital not to hold onto a stock if confidence in its performance wavers .
III) Energy Future Holdings
- Warren Buffett, known for seeking advice from Charlie Munger in his investment decisions, openly admitted a significant mistake in his 2013 letter. He invested USD 2.1 billion in bonds of Energy Future Holdings Corporation, banking on rising natural gas prices to boost the competitiveness of the coal-based business and yield profits.
- Unfortunately, natural gas prices plummeted from their 2007 levels, leading to substantial losses for Energy Future Holdings. The company declared bankruptcy in 2014, and Berkshire Hathaway sold the bonds at a loss of USD 873 million in 2013.
- Buffett acknowledged his error in assessing the transaction's gain-loss probabilities, emphasizing the importance of seeking a second opinion from trusted advisors or partners when making significant decisions.
- This incident highlights two essential lessons. Firstly, it underscores the risks associated with predicting market trends, whether in natural gas, oil, gold, or individual stocks. Secondly, it emphasizes the perilous nature of investing in high-yield "junk" bonds. While conglomerates like Berkshire Hathaway can absorb losses from such high-risk endeavors, retail investors face financial disaster in the event of a default. Hence, it is crucial to avoid instruments with questionable return on capital, especially in a retail investor's context.
IV) Lubrizol & David Sokol
In 2011, Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway faced severe scrutiny.
- David Sokol, chairman of several Berkshire subsidiaries, recommended Lubrizol Corporation as a potential acquisition to Buffett while he himself owned stocks in the company. Sokol's failure to disclose his stock ownership violated Berkshire's insider trading rules. Despite this, Berkshire acquired Lubrizol for approximately USD 9 billion, and Sokol profited around USD 3 million from the transaction.
- Upon investigation, it became clear that Sokol had been ambiguous about how he acquired Lubrizol stock, neglecting to mention that he purchased shares after meeting with the bankers proposing the acquisition. Buffett emphasized the issue as a matter of ethics, although he initially acknowledged that no one was at fault.
- This situation highlighted the importance of not being excessively trusting in the business world. The lesson here is to maintain a checklist, follow a rigorous process, and be unafraid to ask numerous questions, especially when your reputation is at stake. Taking extra precautions becomes essential in preserving one's integrity and credibility.
V) Amazon
- Up until now, the mistakes we've discussed were all instances of active decisions leading to losses. However, there's a different kind of mistake made by Buffett that falls more under the category of missed opportunities.
- In 2017, Buffett openly admitted that he had been observing Amazon.com for an extended period but never invested in it. In his own words, he confessed, “I was too dumb to realize. I did not think Jeff Bezos could succeed on the scale he has.”
- Buffett had underestimated Amazon's brilliance in two key areas: its dominance in e-commerce and its success in cloud services through Amazon Web Services.
- Buffett's traditional approach didn't align with investing in stocks with high price-earning ratios like Amazon's in 2019. Moreover, he tended to overlook technology companies, considering them beyond his expertise.
- In this context, the significant cost of this missed opportunity becomes apparent. It underscores the necessity of having a well-defined area of expertise. However, it's even more crucial to continuously expand and evolve that expertise over time to seize valuable opportunities.
VI) Google
- The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio notably lacks any shares from Alphabet or Google, a fact that Warren Buffett deeply laments.
- Google initially piqued Buffett's interest due to a Berkshire-owned subsidiary, GEICO, operating in the auto insurance sector. GEICO heavily depends on Google's advertising platform to attract customers.
- Buffett acknowledges that he should have delved deeper into Google's business and long-term prospects. His limited technical understanding might have played a role in missing this opportunity, despite it being right within his immediate purview.
VII) Berkshire Hathaway
- It might surprise you, but Warren Buffett's most significant investment blunder occurred when he bought Berkshire Hathaway in 1962. Back then, Berkshire Hathaway was a struggling textile business, meeting the criteria of Benjamin Graham's cigar-butt investing model.
- Buffett became intrigued by the favorable financial assessment and started purchasing the stock in installments. In 1964, the company's owner, Seabury Stanton, proposed buying Buffett's shares at $11.50 per share. However, the actual offer received was $11.32, which angered Buffett. In retaliation, he acquired a controlling stake in Berkshire Hathaway and ousted Stanton from the company.
- Despite taking revenge, Buffett found himself stuck with a significant investment in a failing business. To this day, he considers it his most regrettable investment. He endured the burden of this failing textile business for an additional 20 years. Buffett admits that had he redirected the cashflows into other ventures like insurance companies, Berkshire would have been worth twice as much as it is now.
- By his estimations, Buffett's decision to invest in Berkshire Hathaway amounted to a $200 billion mistake. The lesson here is clear: emotional decisions have no place in successful investing.
Thank you
@Money_Dictators
TradingView Masterclass: How To Use Drawing ToolsWe continue with our Masterclass series, which we created to teach people how to get started with charting, research, and analysis. In this lesson, you’ll learn all about the Drawing Panel located on the left side of your chart. Let’s get started!
Drawing tools 🎨
There are eight categories in the drawing tool section: Cursors, Trend line tools, Fibonacci tools, Patterns, Forecasting and measurement tools, Geometric shapes, Annotation tools, and Icons. In addition, just below these categories, there are handy features that augment and optimize your research in specific situations, such as zooming in/out, measuring, and a magnet tool for selecting specific price points. Let’s analyze each of these in detail:
- Cursors: Located at the very top corner of the drawing tool section, Cursors gives you the capability to change your mouse as you move around the chart. For example, we have other variations such as the dot cursor or the simplest of all, the arrow cursor. Finally, we have an eraser tool to remove objects from the chart by clicking on them.
- Trend lines: Trend lines can be used to identify and visualize the direction of a price trend, and are sometimes used for drawing support or resistance lines as well. In this section, you can also find trend channels and pitchforks.
- Gann and Fibonacci tools: These advanced tools are often used by technical analysts and quants to locate retracements, pullbacks, measured moves, and advanced price sequences. The Fibonacci tools include retracement, extension, fans, arcs, and more. The Gann tools include box, square, and fan.
- Patterns: In this section, you’ll find popular drawing tools for mapping our complex patterns that require several different points to be drawn such as Elliott waves, head and shoulders, and impulses.
- Forecasting and measurement tools: These invaluable tools are used to make projections either long or short, study specific stats such as time or price ranges, and also give you the capability to analyze volume with VWAP and volume profiles.
- Geometric shapes: These tools are where you can find the brush tool to freely draw on your chart, but it also goes deeper than that, as there are also important shapes whereby a trader can highlight important areas on the chart with a rectangle or arrow such as accumulation or historical rebound zones.
- Annotation tools: These can be used to write notes, reminders, prices, and journal entries. These are key tools for traders who want to track their progress over time and always have specific notes attached to the chart. It also includes the ability to insert X links and images from your computer.
- Icons: Need a little more color or character on your chart? This section gives you hundreds of emojis, icons, and stickers to add to your chart. Highlight an area, add more art to your chart or spice up your creativity.
Tip: Keyboard shortcuts 🔠
Did you know that you can use keyboard shortcuts for the most popular drawing tools? To find out the command, you need to open the drop-down menu of one of the 8 drawing tool categories and you will see the command on the right side of some tools. For example:
Alt + T = Trendline
Alt + F = Fib retracement
Alt + H = Horizontal line
Alt + V = Vertical line
Alt + I = Invert chart
Alt + W = Add current symbol to watchlist
If you're a Mac user, use ⌥ instead of Alt.
Measure and zoom 📏🔎
When you use the Measure tool (the ruler icon just below the 8 drawing tool category icons), you can see at a glance how much an asset has fallen or risen in numbers, percentages, bars and days. Combined with the Zoom tool (the magnifying glass with +/- icons), you can also focus on the most important areas of the chart. For both measuring and zooming, the procedure is the same: select the tool, click on the point where you want to start measuring or from where you want to zoom, and end with another click where you want to end. You can also use the "Shift" hotkey instead of the icon. To remove a measurement, simply click on the chart.
Magnet mode 🧲
Magnet mode is a wizard that helps you to bring the drawing tools closer to the nearest price bars that you hover over with the mouse. There are 2 modes: Weak magnet and Strong magnet. This tool allows traders to perfectly connect a drawing tool to a specific price point. The current values are OHLC, meaning when Magnet mode is turned on, all drawing tools will connect to the nearest open, high, low or close value. Want to draw support lines that always connect to a specific price? Use this tool.
Stay in drawing mode 🎨
If you are going to make several drawings on the chart at the same time, you may find it useful to activate this option (pencil + padlock icon), as it will allow you to make as many drawings as you want without deactivating the selected drawing tool. Remember that you must deactivate this option to return to normal mode.
Lock all drawing tools 🛑
Once the chart has been configured, if you do not want to make any further changes, you can lock everything that has been drawn with this option (padlock icon) so that you do not accidentally delete elements in the future.
Hide/Show drawings/indicators/positions & orders 👁🗨
This option allows you to toggle the visibility of the drawings, indicators, positions & orders or even all three to make comparisons with a blank chart. The keyboard shortcut is "Ctrl + Alt + H".
Drawing sync 🔄
This allows you to synchronize the drawings of the selected charts in the current layout or in all layouts (globally). You’ll surely want to test this feature as it’s perfect for those who perform multi-timeframe technical analysis and research across multiple charts or timeframes. For example, when this tool is turned on, if you draw on one chart, all of your drawings will appear on your other charts that have the same symbol.
Delete objects 🗑
With a single click, you can delete all drawings or indicators, or even both at the same time. There are also a few other options to remove specific things on your chart. Use this tool wisely and don’t accidentally delete everything!
Show favorite drawing tools toolbar ⭐
To set up the favorites toolbar, first, you must first go to one of the eight drawing categories and click on the gray star in one of the tools. When you click on it, it turns orange and the quick access toolbar for drawing tools is created. Once you have selected all your favorites, move the favorites toolbar around so that you can use it conveniently every time you want to draw something on the charts.
That’s a wrap! We hope you found this guide valuable. We'd love to hear about your favorite drawing tool, so please share your thoughts in the comments below. Additionally, if you have any feedback or suggestions, drop us a line.
- TradingView Team
Explaining 15 Different Types of Financial Market ParticipantsIn this post, I'm about to unveil the 15 distinct financial market players who hold the keys to the kingdom. Picture this: you're stepping onto the trading battleground armed with nothing but a stick if you don't acquaint yourself with these formidable forces. As an investor or trader, knowledge is your best armor, and understanding the roles of these market entities can be your secret weapon as you embark on your investment journey, especially if you're just starting out.
1. Investment Banks: These financial powerhouses are the architects of the market. They don't just buy and sell stocks and bonds; they orchestrate mergers and acquisitions, wield market research as their compass, and provide asset management services. Investment banks are the bridges connecting those seeking to invest their capital and those in need of investments. Within this realm, two distinct titans emerge:
Bulge Brackets: These giants, like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank, are the juggernauts of the investment banking world, handling a vast array of financial endeavors.
Boutiques: Think of them as the specialized artisans of finance. Boutiques such as Lazard, Evercore, and Guggenheim excel in finely crafted financial solutions, catering to unique and intricate needs.
📈 Charting Lesson: What do I even look for in a chart?!Full-time trader here. Sharing some knowledge for free . If this helps you, show some love: follow me for more and like this idea. 👍
Why do I need a chart anyway?
First, we need to convince you of why you need a chart. No problem. Let's say you're a fundamental analysis investor. The stock has to make sense. The stock has to last forever. It needs to be a growth stock. Let's say... NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:TSLA is a good example over the last few years. Now that you found a good candidate, when are you going to buy? At an all-time high? At an all-time low? One share a day? One share a week? No. Buying a stock without looking at the chart is like driving with a blindfold. Don't do it.
Pull up a chart.
Observe past price action.
Try to find a trend.
Plan your entry.
Do this even if you're going to hold for 20 years.
When I pull up a chart, what do I look for? I just see a bunch of lines.
Let's first make sure you are looking at the correct view. On the top left corner of your screen, you'll see your user icon. Next to it is the ticker. Next to it is the interval. Next to THAT is the chart type. Make sure you select "CANDLES". Not "hollow candles". Here's how it should look:
Mine may look a bit different because I changed my theme. But the candles is what we care about.
Now the juicy part.
Support and Resistance are Key Reversal Levels.
When you open a chart, the first thing you want to do is look for areas where the price has reached in the past and reversed or got rejected or bounced. For example, every time SPY reached 443.37 in the chart above, it reversed. Let's call this a, "key level".
If the price is ABOVE that key level, the line is called SUPPORT.
If the price is BELOW that key level, the line is called RESISTANCE.
Using the horizontal line tool, make sure you have these key support and resistance levels on your chart. Try to ONLY buy near support and sell near resistance.
If the stock is choppy, do your best. If you can't, skip it and go to another stock. There's thousands!
Stocks, Currencies, and Cryptos Move in Trends. Up or Down.
Next, try to find a "trend". A trend is something where if you connect the dots, the price jumps right from that straight line.
Pull out your trendline tool and try to connect some dots. Don't go through any candle bodies. Going through wicks is okay. It's actually recommended.
Three touches are required to make a valid trendline. If you see only TWO touches? Is the price going TOWARDS the trendline if you were to extend it? There's a good chance it's going to head towards that TL and bounce! Good job. You found a good trade potential.
Identify Reversal or Continuation Patterns.
Look for known patterns. In the example above, there is a "head and shoulders" pattern. This is a bearish reversal pattern.
Know that not all patterns will come true.
It's good to know the overall signal the market is giving.
If every trader sees it, it's likely not going to happen.
In the above example, a looming H/S pattern is scary given already bad economic conditions and recession/ inflation worries. In this case, the market may be trying to tell you something.
Understand that these patterns are not just nice-looking drawings on a chart. They work because they display some sort of buyer/ seller psychology.
I will post more examples of known patterns on my TradingView profile soon. Be sure to follow if you want to learn more.
If you benefitted from this, you are welcome to follow me, comment any questions, or share this with your friends. Good knowledge should be free. I'll post more insight soon. Thank you for reading and for your continued support. 👍
US30 Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana 😂
This week I am a bit bias for sell because of the 'M' formation that price is forming. However, it has done a similar pattern in the past before and not sold.
What verifies the sell for me is the break and retest of the 34300 level (highlighted orange) which would be the neckline of the 'M'. I see an opportunity at the 34600 level, if it breaks and retests the area. I'll then stick to my rules entering and reentering at each new level hopefully until the 34100 level.
If price decides to buy then, stay consistent, waiting for the break and retest on the 1m timeframe and go to the next level.
📝 ALWAYS review your trades and improve your trading strategy.ALL your trades should get a good in-depth review. Unless, of course, you're just gambling, then the market isn't for you, and you're likely not even using TradingView -- because why would you need a chart? 🙂
If you make a red trade, review it, do better next time.
If you make a green trade, but you were like this the whole time: :sweating: ... chances are you were lucky. Review it, do better next time.
If you make a green trade and it doesn't "continue", so to speak, either you knew exactly what you were doing (nice!), or you were lucky. Review it, do better next time.
If you make a GREAT trade and it continues to RIP after (aka "left gains on the table"), NICE JOB.. Review it. Do it again. And again.
Keep reviewing all your trades till you have a bullet proof strategy.
There is no other way to advance as a trader.
If you don't review your trades, you will not improve.
Open your mind to learning from other traders. You may be better than them in some things, but they may be better than you in some things.
Kobe, Lebron, Ronaldo, Messi, Brady, and every athlete you can name has went to practice every day throughout his/ her career. Pros don't stop practicing. Neither should you.
In the referenced trade, I made a quick +10% in NASDAQ:QQQ calls. Although the intention was to scalp, I got lucky to not get burned. Here's how I normally review my trades:
Remember to NOT force trades. There's no point. I warned against forcing any trades yesterday in my quad/ triple witching post. Volatility is no joke. More volatility coming next week. Remember that.
Follow for more insight & share/ like this with others who can benefit. Welcome to join my community. Link below.
The VIX: A Measure of Market FearThe VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. It is calculated using the prices of options on the S&P 500 index. A higher VIX indicates that market participants are expecting more volatility in the future, while a lower VIX indicates that they are expecting less volatility.
The VIX is an important tool for investors because it can help them understand how risky the stock market is. A high VIX indicates that the market is expected to be volatile, which means that there is a greater chance of large price swings. This can make investing more risky, but it can also create opportunities for profit.
The VIX is also correlated with the S&P 500 index. This means that the VIX tends to move in the opposite direction of the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 falls, the VIX tends to rise, and when the S&P 500 rises, the VIX tends to fall. This correlation is not perfect, but it is strong enough to be useful for investors.
The VIX can be used in a variety of ways by investors. Some investors use the VIX to assess the risk of their portfolios. Others use the VIX to trade volatility, either by buying or selling VIX futures contracts. Still others use the VIX to hedge against risk in other assets.
The VIX is a complex and volatile asset, but it can be a valuable tool for investors who understand how to use it.
Here are some additional things to keep in mind about the VIX:
The VIX is not a direct measure of the volatility of the stock market. It is a measure of the expected volatility, which means that it is based on the opinions of market participants.
The VIX can be affected by a variety of factors, including economic news, political events, and natural disasters.
The VIX is not always accurate. It can sometimes overshoot or undershoot the actual volatility of the stock market.
Despite its limitations, the VIX is a valuable tool for investors. It can help investors understand the risk of the stock market and make informed investment decisions.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
Breakout Soon ->Trend
Its in a strong uptrend for now, and its at a very crucial zone to break ascending triangle pattern. Get ready for some gains here.
Chart Pattern
From 15th August 2023 we are seeing its been trading in a tight range, and now its ready to explode most likely to the upside from here. I am targeting 3.10 zone in mid to short term.
Hit like & follow guys ;)
Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Trading
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m.
Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading.
If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames.
Daily time frame shows a bigger picture.
It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years.
It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers.
The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements.
In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks.
In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intraweek & intraday perspectives.
The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers.
The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week.
Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day.
4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations.
4H t.f shows intraweek and week to week perspectives.
Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks.
15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame.
The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session.
Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours.
It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable.
The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants.
While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends.
Fixed Range Volume Profile, How do I use it?I can say that Fixed Range Volume Profile is strong tool to determine targets and stop loss, POC point of control as per my research represent a central price and bar close price is turning around it, so when you assign take profit and stop loss as per it, you reduce the risk and have a plan B to manage your trade.
as you see in above chart for BTCUSD, we have trend line on daily time frame, I cut the chart to 3 successive zones representing 3 cycle, 1 cycle is from the trend to trend and applied "Fixed Range Volume Profile" on all 3 ranges/cycles, last cycle has not finished yet, and I show POC1, POC2 and POC3 prices.
I consider this line as central price for a range and we can see how price keep moving above and down POC1 & POC2 prices.
for the last range/cycle (not completed yet because it has not reach the uptrend line yet, we see POC3 = $30,200 and the current price $29,590 so price is under POC3 and we can guess it is going to trend at approximately $27,750, this is 1st hint.
2nd hint is to take "Fixed Range Volume Profile" for the all uptrend, did you notice it? I think the price is going to POC(all range) = $28,300 (support)
Now we came to the best part of our subject, the what if question and how to set up a plan?:
what is stop loss?
we need a 1H bar close above POC3= $30,200+100= $30,300 (resistant) and we buy target $31,380 (you should know why!) and for stop loss, we need close price 1H again down $30,200
what is take profit?
we can set $28,300 for safe and $27,750 if you want to risk a little bit, this is first target, but what if bar 4h close down POC= $28,300? here we can set a 2nd take profit at $26,400 (you should know why!)
this is what I wanted to share with you and I will be glad to answer your questions.
I did go short for BTCUSD this morning, enter price $29,165 and I set a take profit at $29,322 because I am working on 15 min timeframe.
Understanding the Learning CurveWelcome to @Vestinda new article about Learning Curve! We are delighted to share this insightful piece with our valued community on @TradingView !
At Vestinda, we believe in empowering traders with knowledge and tools to navigate the cryptocurrencies and futures trading. In this article, we will explore the concept of the learning curve and its relevance to the trading journey. Whether you are a novice trader or a seasoned professional, understanding the learning curve can be instrumental in your path to success.
If you focus and invest time into a subject, you will eventually reach a level of mastery.
The actual level clearly depends on the amount of invested time and to a significant extent on your inherent abilities to acquire the specific knowledge. I could probably spend a decade on quantum physics and not progress beyond the level of ‘enthusiastic beginner'. However, attaining mastery is seldom a smooth and linear journey. It is more like a curve in the mathematical sense, characterized by uneven ups and downs, reflecting the usual 'bumps in the road' that we all experience when dealing with challenging topics.
There is a pattern in the process of learning something new (knowledge, skills, etc.), which was formulated by the American psychologist Albert Bandura. This pattern is depicted in the form of a graph known as the Bandura curve.
The graph demonstrates the relationship between time (number of attempts), the level of human competence in what they are studying, and their expectations.
If you have ever enthusiastically started a new training, holding high hopes for it, and then quietly gave up, blaming others or anything else, then you are not alone. To avoid repeating this in the future, it's important to understand how human psychology and the system work, and that each of us is part of this system. Below, we will provide recommendations on what to pay attention to.
So, the Bandura curve shows the stages a person goes through when beginning to learn something new.
1. Clueless (You don't know what you don't know)
When you first venture into trading cryptocurrencies and futures, you are essentially clueless about the intricacies of the market. The concepts, strategies, and tools may seem foreign and overwhelming. It's like staring at a vast landscape without a map, unsure of where to even begin.
2. Naively confident (You think you know, but still don't know what you don't know)
As you begin your learning journey, you might gain some basic knowledge and techniques. This newfound understanding might lead to a sense of naively confident. You believe you have a handle on things, but in reality, there's a lot you're still unaware of, and the market can surprise you with unexpected turns.
3. Discouragingly realistic (You know what you don't know)
With more experience, you come to a point of realization that there is much more to learn. The challenges and complexities of trading become evident, and you may face setbacks that test your resolve. It can be a discouraging phase as you grapple with the reality of how much you still need to learn.
4. Mastery achieved (You know it)
Through persistence and a commitment to learning, you gradually achieve mastery in trading cryptocurrencies and futures. You've gained a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics, developed effective strategies, and learned how to manage risks. You can now navigate the market with confidence and consistently make informed decisions.
Remember: The learning curve in trading is a natural part of the process, and each stage brings its own valuable lessons. Don't be disheartened by challenges or setbacks; they are opportunities to grow and improve your trading skills.
WHAT TO DO?
✅ Embrace the journey of learning and growth, recognizing that mastery takes time.
✅ Stay humble and open-minded, acknowledging that there is always more to learn.
✅ Be patient with yourself during the challenging phases and use them as motivation to improve.
✅ Keep refining your strategies and adapting to the ever-changing market conditions.
Can you identify which stage you are currently in your cryptocurrency and futures trading journey? Remember, each stage brings you closer to becoming a proficient trader.
We hope you found this article on understanding the learning curve in trading cryptocurrencies and futures helpful!
If you have any thoughts, questions, or personal experiences related to the topic, we'd love to hear from you. Please share your feedback in the comments below.
Your input is valuable to us and can help us create more content that resonates with your interests and needs.
Thank you for being part of our community!
Mastering Elliott Wave: The importance of channelingI wanted to share my thoughts on the significance of using channeling technique in Elliott Wave theory when analyzing charts.
To begin, we draw what we call a "base channel," starting from the beginning of wave 1 and extending it to the end of wave 2. This initial channel provides us with a foundation for analysis.
The following occurrence of an impulsive breakout beyond this channel signals the initiation of wave 3. At this point, we create a new "Acceleration Channel" to track the movement of wave 3. If this newly drawn channel is breached to the downside, it suggests the possibility of a correction for wave 3 underway.
As seen in the picture, the original base channel we drew earlier now acts as a support level for wave 4, accompanied by consolidation around Fibonacci levels. This observation has been witnessed numerous times in the past.
When the corrective channel experiences a breakout with above-average volume, it serves as a signal indicating the completion of wave 4. This event provides an opportunity for us to establish Fibonacci targets for profit-taking.
In this particular example, I have chosen to draw the corrective channel only on the final leg of the ABC correction, enabling us to catch the breakout at an earlier stage. A more conservative approach, however, would involve waiting for the breakout to occur after wave B has been surpassed.
Hope this was helpful for those wanting to learn more about channeling and Elliott Wave.