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Leadingindicators

Early Warning SystemI've scripted my own early warning indicator. This system has provided very accurate warning signals the last few years as to where potential tops were forming. There are several occasions where it detected changes weeks or even months ahead of trend changes. Occasionally, it's a little too early at providing these signals. I can't reveal all my secrets but I was able to use data provided in TradingView that measures true investor sentiment and implied volatility. It also provides decent confirmational bullish/long signals, but it really depends on the type of market that we're in. Pre-2017, bearish signals were flattened and mostly ignored as the market rocketed higher.. I'll continue tracking this going forward and at least use it to assist my other forecasts - just another tool in my toolbox. My current view of the market is not good. If you follow my updates, you'll know that I've been warning people about this drop and zone of volatility. Check out my other updates on the markets as well as the vix. I think it's likely to continue the next couple of months. However, take a look at the indicator and how the avg. is slanting upwards (green circle). This could be signaling a bounce in the market...but will it be like Feb of this year where we made a higher high in the market before the death drop? I have some long exposure as a strangle for such an event, but have been net short since end of August. I don't need to explain to you how the market is currently retarded in light of the fundamental picture. I'm not calling for a great depression-like melt-down yet.. We could see a lot of volatility the next few months but it may be just another opportunity to go long the market. I'll be here to provide all of the most accurate data I can for you.
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
18
Technical Analysis OverviewThe investment decision is based out of two different ways: Fundamental Analysis: Analyzing a company's financial statement Technical Analysis: Understanding the market sentiment behind price trends Technical Analysis The study of statistical trends, collected from historical price and volume data, to identify opportunities for trade. Assumptions of technical analysis Market discounts everything History tends to repeat itself (psychological) Price moves in trend (reflexive) Trend A trend is the overall direction of a market or an asset's price identified by trendlines. Three possible trends: Uptrend: Asset going up, making higher highs or higher lows Downtrend: Asset going down, making lower highs or lower lows Sideways: Asset trades in horizontal channel Technical Analysis considers: (Basics of Technical Analysis) Price Chart Patterns Volume-Momentum Indicator Oscillators Moving Average Support Resistance levels Movements are not linear, the price will face resistance as it goes up or support as it goes down. -‍Resistance: Level where an uptrend can be expected to pause or rebound due to a concentration of sellers. -Support: Level where a downtrend can be expected to pause or rebound due to a concentration of buyers. Technical Indicators broadly serve three functions to alert, to confirm, and to predict. There are two types of indicators: Leading Indicator: Leads the pice, generates a signal for trading opportunities. Eg. Oscillators i.e. RSI, CCI, Stochastic, Williams %R, Momentum, etc. Lagging Indicator: Follows trends and patterns, reduces the risk in exchange for missing early opportunities. Eg. Moving Averages, Bollinger Band, and MACD. A few myths about Technical Analysis: TA is only for short trading or day trading- TA can be used in all time frames, from 1 minute monthly charts TA has a low success rate- Solely TA can give you profits if used effectively Technical Analysis is quick and easy- Continued success requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline Ready-made technical analysis software can be helpful- Such software may provide insights about trends or patterns but cannot guarantee profits, use of backtesting is necessary TA can provide price predictions accurately- TA is about probability and likelihood, and not guaranteed thereby price ranges can be predicted The winning rate in TA should be higher- Profitability does not depend solely on win-rate, it also incorporates risk-reward ratio Limitations of Technical Anlaysis Tend to give mixed signals when used in isolation, confusing traders TA is all about probability and signal cannot guarantee a successful trade even after thorough analysis Often technical analysts use indicators in different methods and may form a biased view regarding the same stock Many a time the technical signal may lag, and by the time proper signal is generated it is possible that the trade might be over A single trading strategy may not work in all scenarios as markets tend to be extremely dynamic Few Trading Mistakes Beginners Make: Starting with real money The best way to get acquainted with trading rules is to have a demo with virtual money before investing in real money, you can perform paper trades on Mudrex Not examining situation by yourself Make your own strategy, test them on the Mudrex platform, and then follow the same plan to trade by understanding things on your own Inevitable Losses Set risk limits for yourself and trade accordingly and accept the losses you face Margin Trading in the beginning It is not recommended to margin trade until and unless you understand the risk completely as crypto trading is rewarding yet risky Following the herd Before making a start with real money, make a set of rules which needs to be followed and have stop losses to limit the loss incurred on your trade ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you find the post useful, please like and share our ideas with the community! - Mudrex
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mudrex
19
MELI and SE CorrelationMercadoLibre ( NASDAQ:MELI ) and Sea Limited ( NYSE:SE ) are two highly correlated stocks in the same sector (Internet entertainment/e-commerce). Since SE had a 50% increase in the second half of 2018 (marking the beginning of the market-cap similarities), their correlation began, and SE's large moves (or lack thereof) are highly likely to be precursors to moves from MELI, making it a rare case of a leading indicator unlike most (i.e. RSI and MACD which are lagging indicators). As these moves take time (usually about 3-6 weeks), these plays are for multi-week/month traders who seek consistent returns. I've annotated the correlation plays within the last two years which should serve as a framework for anyone seeking to take advantage of these opportunities in the future. TL;DR: SE and MELI are highly correlated, and, as annotated in the analysis, SE is a leading indicator for MELI generally speaking. The areas of big moves by SE are usually precursors for big moves by MELI, and areas of consolidation by SE are usually indicators that MELI's big moves will reverse. Ideal time frame: 2-6 weeks per trade. As always, do your own due-diligence, never risk too much per trade, have your own plans and targets, and be responsible. Chart image without volume:
NASDAQ:MELI
by Ricardo_N
Financial Shock Indicator - Recession Prediction ToolI've been looking around for various data tools to indicate recessions catalysts and their relationships to financial indicators over the past few months. From those efforts, I've honed in on a particularly interesting ratio that seems to indicate financial shocks that spark recessions (indicated with green shading). It looks like when you take the Fed's Interest Rate (FEDFUNDS) and divide that by the spread of the 10Y (TYX) and 5Y (FVX) treasury bond you get inverted peaks that mark times when a severe financial shock has been applied to the US economy. The delineating factor on if it will truly trigger a recession or not, I think, hinges on the nature of the disruption. You can see with the Clinton Impeachment, there wasn't a resulting recession. There were issues present the caused the fed to cut rates during those times, but apparently the cause wasn't significant enough (Asian and Russian Financial Crisis). So, I ask myself, is Trump's Tariff War significant enough of a shock to trigger a recession? The Q3 GDP doesn't seem to indicate it, but a look back at the 2000 bubble shows a similar trend. Trump's Tax Cut (giving a boost to the GDP in a low sales time period) may be insulating the US economy from a true recession, but it's not clear. There may be a better data set to plot this out further, which I'll be working on, to see how it aligns with more than the previous 2 recessions but I wanted to get this out there for people to weigh and challenge. My other comment regarding applicability is that Cam Harvey's inverted yield curve can be set up with a variety of combinations. In the Duke article published in July of 2019, Harvey himself describes the recession indicating inverted yield curve as the difference between the 10 year and 3 month treasury bill in an inverted state for an entire quarter. That event did not occur in 1998. So, the combination of the Financial Shock Indicator with a preceding inverted 10yr-3m yield curve for more than a quarter gives you a 100% chance of recession (from an n=2). Either way, I think my Financial Shock Indicator, when used with the inverted yield curve, may be indicative of true recession predictions. But we'll see how it turns out.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by InvestingIsAScience
2
DXY: Market OverviewThe leading indicator has already pointed out exhausted bullish. Technically talking we all can see dxy has extended a lot high due to some past week greenback power over most of its counterparts. Last week it was an almost risk-off market situation where safe haven did most well and the case dollar been dragging most of its counterpart creating some bullish momentum on dxy. The situation doesn't seem well for dxy bulls at this point when we saw a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern which indicating bearish momentum gradually increasing at the market. To consider properly we know how pound, euro, Aussie (mainly) and kiwi trying to lead over greenback at the moment and overall market risk sentiment changed when NY trader entered the market. I assume if the market player avoids risk aversion and gets nasty over chasing risky assets then counterparts of greenback may perform well especially those comdolls and which will eventually help dxy bears to drag the price further lower. Technically we can see stoch did hang around a couple of times in its overbought zone but finally it leaves the 80 zone!
TVC:DXY
by Anatta0
DOUBLE BOTTOM(GO ON DAILY TO GET A BETTER PERSPECTIVE) )Similar to NZDCHF (Makes for decent correlation) , in a case like this one pair will just work as a leading indicator where price will go , if you miss one there's another one, use it to your advantage i guess (doesn't mean you should have positions open on both , it just means double the risk not the money, you could but that's not the best idea) evidently NZDJPY is the leading indicator here , and it in the horizontal neckline zone. and i an waiting for price to continue to the upside and might buy and T.P @ 70.594 end of this zone.
Long
by webster.robesten
LTC leads the way for ETH As it always has.Across multiple cycles LTC has always been the first mover rather it be for the upturn, downturn or even pattern development. And now we see that ETH is in a falling wedge but is yet to test the 0.786 fib retrace; meanwhile LTC is very very close to it's 786 retrace and is now closing in on it's most important zone of support. If the trend of LTC leading ETH continues we should be seeing ETH close in on it's equivalent levels very soon. A quite likely scenario is that we will see LTC breakout first because it's much deeper into it's pattern development then we will see ETH follow behind it. It Will be like a reset of the year all over again accept this time starting from a higher low. For those interested in seeing the comparison between ETH and LTC i have put the LTC and ETH chart in the indicator window. LTC represented by the blue line and ETH by the gray line. I decided to add BTC in the yellow just because that coin is also important and an interesting thing i see is that LTC seems to follow BTC more closely than ETH it even sometimes leads BTC. I also marked the points of interest where LTC can be seen leading the pack on bull cycles and bear cycles in relation to ETH represented by the blue and red boxes.
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by RizeSenpai
4
THE BOTTOM IS IN!! Crypto Bottoms ETHUSD 4 HRI originally posted this setup on Oct. 30 (linked). It took FOREVER to reach the anticipated reversal zone but today's capitulation sell-off finally completed this wave. I can only imagine how negative sentiment is today on social media and such, so the mood and despair for the bulls also creates good conditions for a major bottom here. Note to self: sideways choppy conditions require extreme patience for targets to be hit. Just two points, the 228.08 swing high (Sept. 15) and 206.14 midpoint (circled, Sept. 17) predicted the reversal that occurred today!
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by CryptoBanker
4
ETH ... a good indicator for BTC drops?Hello team! So, something I've watched for a while ... ETH, and I have a hypothesis. It does a great job telling us when a BTC drop is incoming. Check out this chart. I'd say in all instances except maybe one, the drops defined gave us advanced warning. The purple dashed lines mark the start of the ETH drop and compare that to when BTC drops. There is a definite lag. That lag actually represents several hours of warning before the BTC drop happens. Something to keep in mind when you're trading ... keep a watchful eye on ETH. If it seems to be holding steady, probably all is okay ... but if it shows weakness, start watching BTC like a hawk! Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome! Do not make financial decisions based on this information. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MAGICMARK
7