Update from the BoJ decision todaySince January 2023, the USDJPY has been on an astronomic rise, driven by the significant divergence between FOMC and BoJ monetary policies.
The initial market expectation was for the BoJ to intervene when the USDJPY approaches the 155 price level.
Today the Yen has come under fresh selling pressure, as the BoJ kept rates on hold, taking the USDJPY above 156.
Could 158 at the top of the channel be the next target intervention level?
From the BoJ today
Kept rates on Hold
No comments about an intervention
Yen continues to weaken with USDJPY climbing above 156
Jpy
USDJPY The BIG Short!OANDA:USDJPY
It feels like the time has come. Divergence is massive, JPYX just made another dip and about to bounce back, additionally US10Y showing signs of reversal... BoJ intervention is on the horizon, but this is an entirely different matter.
The trade is risky, but the reward is equally large.
GBPJPY - Long Trade IdeaI like the long idea here. If the current day can form a Bisi, that would be fantastic. After that I would just be looking price to trade back into the Bisi, into one of the key Breaker levels annotated, at the right time of the day, then STRIKE.
The highest-probability target would be the recent high, and the next discretionary target would be my Wick Chair model (out of view), which basically also has some EQHs as well. A runner could be left for even higher prices should both targets be hit.
The stoploss is discretionary for a better RR as this is the Daily timeframe. The safest option would be the protected low annotated on the chart.
- R2F
EUR/JPY has a strong bullish momentum, could it rise further?Price is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 165.195
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 164.439
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 166.00
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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USD/JPY looks set for 155 - but will the BOJ allow a breakout?At the beginning of April, Japan's ex-FX diplomat Watanabe said that the BOJ were unlikely to intervene with USD/JPY below 155. Well now the pair trade less than 80 pips beneath this key level (and less than a day's trade by recent standards), 155 is certainly the level to watch today.
The strength of the bullish 1-hour trend makes it seem that USD/JPY has little choice by to at least try and retest 155. Prices are now consolidating after a mild pullback, RSI (2) is nearing oversold during an uptrend and the daily pivot point is nearby for dip buyers to consider longs.
Should momentum turn higher from here, bulls could simply target 155.
As for how it behaves if it meets that level remains to be seen. Yet prior attempts at key levels usually sees momentum either slow down ahead of it, or a volatile breakout is followed by a shakeout before prices revert beneath the key level. The only exception in recent history was IS CPI data which saw prices smash through 152 with apparent ease.
But today we suspect market forces alone can drive prices higher without US data. The question remains as to whether the BOJ will remain quiet and allow the rally to flourish further.
USDJPY → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Sell CHFJPY Channel BreakoutThe CHF/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined channel pattern.
Potential Short Trade :
Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support line of the channel after confirmation. Ideally, this would be around 169.90 or lower if the price continues to decline.
Thank you.
GJDAILY
Still in our bullish trend, currently forming a channel where we are slowing down and pulling momentum. Towards the 190.00 is where we would expect a reversal and continuation of the trend.
4H
Still letting it fall and as practice analysis, our forecast from early in the morning is currently on par with the market. 190.00 our aim
1H
In the distribution phase so we know this is where momentum is best.
Usdjpy, congrats to those who long the break up last week!Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Yup, as mentioned, if you have gone long last week..so question this week, is it gonna repeat what happened last week?Hmmmm i am starting to be more cautious
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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EURJPY - Wait For The Bears!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURJPY has been overall bearish , trading within the falling flat wedge pattern in red.
Currently, EURJPY is approaching the upper bound of the channel acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
Moreover, it is retesting a demand zone marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red trendline and green demand zone.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURJPY approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
CADJPY Eyes Selling Setup Amid Safe-Haven JPY DemandAttention Traders,
In today's trading session, our attention is on CADJPY, with our focus directed towards a potential selling opportunity around the 112.400 zone. CADJPY is nearing a significant resistance line, marking the 112.400 supply zone.
Adding depth to our analysis, it's imperative to consider the fundamental landscape. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has contributed to heightened market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets. The Japanese Yen (JPY), renowned for its stability and reliability, is particularly favored in such environments. Therefore, we are inclined towards buying JPY amidst the escalating tensions in the Middle East, leveraging its status as a safe haven during periods of geopolitical instability.
With CADJPY poised to encounter resistance at the 112.400 supply zone and the safe-haven appeal of JPY amidst Middle East escalations, the convergence of these factors presents an opportune moment for a potential selling opportunity in the pair.
Trade wisely,
Joe
USDJPY → An opportunity to get a longUSDJPY → An opportunity to get along
hello guys...
as you can see, usdjpy made a supply and demand zone and started forming a three-drive pattern! two of them formed so far!
no on this internal trendline is a great opportunity to get a long position until this third drive that would be the next target!
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Sell GBPJPY BreakoutThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined pattern.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support level, ideally around 192.80. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at key levels below the breakout point:
190.96: This represents a potential support level based on previous price action.
190.26: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support level, ideally around 193.00. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Sell GBPJPY CPI DataThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish wedge pattern. This suggests a potential acceleration of the downtrend and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support line of the wedge, ideally around 192.80. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the following points:
190.72: This represents the height of the wedge, measured from the wedge's peak to the breakout point, projected downwards from the breakout.
190.20: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the wedge, ideally around 193.00. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
NZDJPY: Channel Up bottom buy.NZDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.679, MACD = 0.060, ADX = 31.385) as it trades between the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA100. Despite the neutrality, the price sits at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern, having made its 2nd contact this month. The 1D MACD has been squeezed and is past a Bullish Cross, which has been a buy signal inside this pattern 2 out of 2 times it was formed. Consequently we turn bullish on the medium term aiming at +6.00% profit (TP = 95.500).
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UJDAILY
Not going to lie, there's no pattern I see. Just the assumption of the one I want to see, which is not a fact so it cannot be used as a confluence. Yet we broke 152.00 which if you zoom out will confirm that we are still in a very bullish trend. Impulse, Correction, Impulse : If you zoom in.
4H
We formed a bear flag and broke it impulsively, breaking at 152.00. This is where our resistance was very strong. Had a flat flag, which was also broken, 153.40. Now we are currently in another correction structure (also the high price UJ has ever seen.
1H
Touch of the bottom of symmetrical triangle 3 times, so we can assume the third touch of the top will be the break to continue to the upside. It has also formed a variation of an inverse H&S which shows the further strength of the demand to the upside.
Trade Idea : Wait for the break of the triangle
GJI am seeing a long sell
DAILY
We have struggled to break the high for the third time, telling us the ceiling is high and filled with sellers. An ascending channel is forming and within it we have another ascending channel which adds to the confluence.
4H
We have a bullish channel in the smaller ascending channel. Where it is also struggling to break the high. 179.80, this gives us ideas of what to do next as we wait on the market open today which will come with the supply.
1H
Impulsive bearish candles, they dragging each other. Let's stay watching 192.20 and see how the trade idea goes.
USDJPY D1 - Long SignalUSDJPY D1
A little way away here, but we have a nice confluence retest zone at 152.000. Strong area of previous resistance, now acting as support (hopefully).
Alongside D1 demand which was formed upon the volume witnessed when we broke out upside. Alerts set, waiting patiently.
CADJPY: Follow the breakout or rejection. Low risk trades.CADJPY is just above the bullish barrier on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.297, MACD = 0.230, ADX = 26.548) despite the fact that it is near the HH trendline of the Ascending Triangle and supported at the same time by the 1D MA50. Technically this calls for a decline and the minimum inside this pattern is the 1D MA200 (TP = 109.350). If it crosses over the HH trendline and closes a 1D candle over it, we will go long, aiming at the top of the Channel Up that will prevail (TP = 115.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data? Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data?
Japanese inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, but its impact on the market might be subdued. Investors could prefer to pay attention to next week's quarterly growth and price forecasts from the Bank of Japan, which could be the real market movers.
According to sources cited by Reuters, the Bank of Japan is transitioning towards a more flexible approach in its policy decisions, placing less emphasis on inflation targeting.
The upcoming April 25-26 policy meeting will see the release of the Bank's quarterly growth and price projections. This shift in strategy suggests that the Bank of Japan may signal a willingness to raise interest rates irrespective of inflation forecasts, which are anticipated to remain around 2.8% or possibly dip slightly to 2.7%.
On the technical side, the USDJPY pair could maintain an upward bias, with buyers potentially pushing it towards the 155.00 mark.
Recent fluctuations in the USDJPY pair have prompted speculation about possible intervention by the Bank of Japan. After hitting a new high dating back to 1990 at 154.705, the pair experienced a swift and unusual downturn. Market watchers are closely monitoring the 155.00 level, considered another more likely potential intervention threshold by the Bank of Japan.
Following a dip to 153.890, the pair rebounded towards 154.775, supported by neutral to hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Powell, speaking at a panel discussion in Washington, highlighted the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation, suggesting the Bank was comfortable with allowing “restrictive policy further time to work”.