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Dead Cat Bounce for Bonds?Bonds have pressed higher following the Fed's 75bps rate hike. We have broken out of 115'29 back into the 116 handle, topping out at our level at 116'20. A red triangle on the KRI suggests that we are facing resistance here. We do appear to be seeing a bull wedge consolidation pattern, but the Kovach OBV has leveled off, so it is likely we will fall from here. Watch 115'29 or 115'03 for support. If we are able to break out further, the next target is 117'08.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
US10Y making H&S topping pattern with long weekly hammer?US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a slowing economy) is still a big risk, which may take years to recover. A hard landing & aggressive rate hikes may be devastating for stocks but the economy may recover faster. More pain more gain. A topping TNX will be good for TLT bonds & growth stocks. Next supports are 3% & the H&S neck at 2.7%. A measured move for H&S may take TNX to the yellow 2% upper pivot zone, retesting the blue wedge or maybe to retest the big red downchannel from 1981. Not trading advice
TVC:US10YShort
by xtremerider8
EURUSD post FEDYesterday FED raised the Interest Rates by 0.75% instead of 0.5%. Despite that, our expectations were right and we saw a wick to the downside followed by a move up. It is more likely that this pullback will continue, We are looking at a possible move to 61.8% of the last downside leg, which is 1,0615. The market will confirm our idea once it breaks above 1,0470. That's when we will be able to determine specific levels where price will eventually go next. Right now, long positions are risky and not confirmed.
by ForexTrendline
11
Staking Rewards: The Best Hope for Crypto During the RecessionNews of record high inflation and the federal reserve's plan to increase interest rates this year has a lot of people worried that a recession (probably on a global scale) is coming this year. After over a decade of constant growth in the US stocks and real-estate markets, we're finally going to see the bubble pop. GDP is down, governments are broke, and I would argue that the "craze" of the last few years in stocks, housing, and even NFTs were driven by low-interest rates that encourage people to speculate rather than save - the act of buying "useless" NFTs, in a way, makes "sense" when compared to the alternative - earning almost nothing on savings and CD accounts. (The crypto "crash" we see in the last few weeks is a result of "crypto-curious" money exiting the space - most of which run in parallel to the fiat markets as a whole.) As interest rates get higher and higher over the next few months, however, that script is likely going to get flipped on its head. If the crypto industry adapts fast enough, they can take advantage of the fact that the banks are still dragging their feet in terms of offering better interest rates - staking rewards are currently outperforming the savings rates of most banks by a very wide margin and is a much easier sell to the average person out there just trying to protect their money. (The idea of buying NFTs of apes and rocks as your future nest-egg will start to sound more silly as time goes on, I think.) In a way this marks the end of the speculative-NFT era for the crypto industry, and possibly the end of the dominance of the proof-of-work model itself. Prior to the big "crash" a few weeks ago, many proof-of-stake coins Tezos (XTZ), Chainlink (LINK), Cardano (ADA) saw blips of independent movement as the rest of the market continued to tumble. If this trend continues over time (since these projects are actually offering something of value to its users - interest and real returns) we may start to see lesser-known contenders in the space rising to the top of the charts. (Ethereum is currently in limbo right now, at least until they finally do their ETH2/Consensys/"merge" in August - they've taken outsized losses this week due to the come-downs of the NFT craze.) As mentioned a few times before, Bitcoin may be in big trouble because the thing people are going to be looking for - interest rates - isn't something they're able to offer on any level, especially after the market goes into a downturn this year. All those years the mining community spent blocking money supply and block size upgrades may finally come back to bite them - the "flippening" may already be on its way. (And Ethereum too, if they fail to adapt to the new landscape - time will tell.)
GEMINI:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
US 10Y Treasuries Short Term BearishCurrently watching the 10Y Treasury Yield to hit resistance and pull back. 3% should be a big resistance level for now. Short term Fibonacci target of ~2.6%. This will be bullish for equities. The recent pivot low broke structure to the left, where the low in late April was broken. This is now a bearish retracement towards the highs, and will be watching for fib levels or a double top as resistance. The bigger picture monthly chart (below) shows a big supply zone resistance at 3%. This area of supply has been hit, and a further reaction to the downside expected. Also, the yield is stretched away from the monthly 21ema, with the 21ema currently below the 200sma. The stochastic momentum index (SMI) is also on overbought zone with bearish divergence.
TVC:US10YShort
by FourC
Stocks Await the FOMCStocks are hovering at lows, establishing value in the mid 3700's. The S&P 500 is clearly waiting for the FOMC event today, so don't expect much action at open. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, and we have found support in the low 3700's. We appear to be forming a small bull wedge pattern with a neckline at 3758. If we do break out, we should find immediate resistance in the 3800's, starting at 3792, however another dump could take us back to lows at 3694.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
EURUSD before FED Today is due the most important type of news for the market - FED Interest Rate decision. We're expecting a 0.5% hike and that is most likely going to happen. What we need to find out is what follows after that. We actually think that those rumors have already affected price by pushing it higher prior to the news. It's very likely to see price dropping and leaving a wick below the previous low from 13th of May and then to begin climbing towards 1,05-1,06. We will then expect a continuation of the downtrend. This is the main scenario that we look at the moment. We don't currently have any trades and we're only looking to enter after the news, once all setups are confirmed.
by ForexTrendline
15
#TNX #US10Y 10 year yield at a top?So the 10 year yield has run hard on interest rate hike expectations. However, as can be seen from the chart, the yield is currently about 93% above its 50 month moving average, the highest it has ever been...by far. Using the TD indicator one can also see that the yields are potentially topping this month. As can be seen from the Stochastic and RSI below, both are at major tops. The yields and DXY priced in a more hawkish FED the last couple of days since we got the higher than expected CPI reading on 10 June. Chances are that the FED will not be able to continue with higher interest rate hikes as this will crash the market. So, the yields and DXY might have been running based on expectations but might revert quite a bit on actual release of FED interest rate decisions tomorrow.
TVC:TNX
by chsmit
Stocks Stabilize Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has dumped further, and we are well below previous relative lows. It was pretty much a straight dive from the 4100's to the 3700's, with very little buy back or even a sign of a technical retracement. We do appear to be finding support at 3758, with a wick extending down a bit further to 3714 or so. After that, we got a small pivot back to 3792 or so. The Kovach OBV has leveled off and is even starting to turn up a bit, suggesting that we may see continued support at these levels and even range a bit between 3758 and 3792. We anticipate 3714 to be a floor for now, but another proper selloff could easily smash through and test the 3600's. It should be a quiet day today as the markets are anticipating the FOMC tomorrow.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPY Big Fed Rate Hike is Coming! If you haven`t noticed Jamie Dimon`s prediction: Then you should know that The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a half of a percentage point for the second consecutive time on June 15. More rate hikes are likely in the coming months because consumer prices rose 8.6% YoY through May. Inflation is at 40 year high! Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO: "Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself." Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. If oil reaches $140 - 150 this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
2
A Few Notes for Crypto Winter First-TimersThe crypto market is in "free fall" today, as some of you may have heard. Decided to write something from the perspective of someone who's been through a few "crypto winters" over the last 8 years or so. mirror.xyz -- I feel like a million years old writing in this tone - though everyone in crypto knows that a week in this industry is equivalent to a year in “normal” time so being inside crypto-lala-land long enough does warp your sense of time. (The last few years of insanity in the world itself doesn’t help too, of course.) But it’s also true that I've been through 3 crypto bull/bear cycles at this point (I was in the ETH ICO in 14’ - divested most of it since then, for the record) and may have a useful perspective to some - not that these dips don't hurt, but I was relatively fortunate to have survived the last few ones through a combination of planning ahead and a few strokes of good luck. But I will say again what I say to almost everyone: crypto is a 3-4 year play at minimum, and you need to have the patience to wait at least that long. Life is short, yes; but at the same time it’s also very, very long. The first few hype cycles (14-16') I literally wasn't aware of anything because crypto was just an obscure, zany idea back then and people held them largely for fun. There were no exchanges - or ones you’d want to trust your money with, anyway. (Mt. Gox, yikes.) The easiest way to get Bitcoin was to mine them yourself or find some guy on the internet who you could exchange it with a pizza or some other type of bartering deal. My wallet was worth so little at the time that I forgot about it and almost lost my private key, in fact. 🤣 The second one (16-18') I worked "regular" jobs and did dollar cost averaging so I didn't have to touch my investments for day-to-day needs. I cashed out only when I needed it, for emergencies and unexpected expenses. My decision to sell was need-based, rather than speculation-based, in other words. (This one did really pay off and I wish more people would do it, honestly.) To prep for the "winter" today I've spent an excessive amount of time doing research on projects that are focused on utility and community-building…and re-allocated my portfolio accordingly. I may have made a few mistakes but after being burned a few times I think I’ve gotten better at picking assets that will survive for the longer-term. The market is still in free-fall so we'll see if that pays off. As a general observation, I’ve seen lots of projects go through problems that many would consider catastrophic - but survived out of sheer perseverance. There were a few projects started with great ambitions but eventually found success by finding and refining their niche. Finding product-market-fit isn’t easy - these things do take time to figure out, even on a human level. (You can see glimpses of potential future successes when people “buy the dip” during downturns - a sign that enough people care about the project to help it stay afloat.) I have never, however, seen a project start off as a money-making scheme then successfully “pivot” onto making something useful later. Like a song that people find catchy, projects usually start and end the same way; with the same chorus, and the same tone. If you’re still holding onto those hype coins, you may want to look at your portfolio a little closer this time because if the team isn’t actually working on anything serious there’s a good chance it will never come back up ever again. (Although I gotta say, the way Ethereum Classic was able to continue to scam people despite its protocol layer being completely compromised was impressive in its zombie-like way.) I gained a lot of respect for the Ethereum team during the last few drops because they seemed unconcerned and continued to do what they love - building tech. That and they had the support of a development community that genuinely cared about the product enough to keep it afloat during the “hard times” - the #1 resource of any project, in my opinion. But the hype of 20-21’ really brought in a lot of grifters into the ETH ecosystem and the gas-fee problem really toxified the culture there, which I think its unfortunate. (Bitcoin leaned hard into the scarcity model and might be beyond repair at this point.) We'll see if the bear market + Consensys/ETH2 merge will fix that - at this point implementing the tech itself should be a pretty straightforward process - but culture is much harder to fix once it goes sour. If people are hanging around each other solely because they think they might rich, when the money’s gone it doesn’t take very long before they start turning on each other. In both Bitcoin and Ethereum we saw the raw ugliness that came from the Proof-of-Work scarcity model - which incentivizes selfish and toxic behaviors in ways that even its founders couldn’t have anticipated. As Ethereum moves away from Proof-of-Work and into the worlds of Proof-of-Stake, is this the end of the Proof-of-Work era for crypto? Let us hope so. (The military dictatorship in El Salvador, which dared to make Bitcoin its reserve currency is in danger of defaulting now, by the way.) For the record, I own 0 Bitcoin - I sold them off a few years ago after seeing how they’ve basically given up on making any meaningful improvements on the protocol itself - gated off by an off-chain governance process controlled by a small group of miners out there. If you’re comfortable with that setup by all means, but hope you at least understand what you’re getting yourself into. -- What Comes Next? Interest Rates and Proof-of-Stake -- Last time it was Crypto Kitties, this time it was Bored Apes - in a weird way the way we talked about crypto tech hadn't really evolved much since then - probably why 2021 became the era of the (adjective)-(animal) NFTs, rather than a triumph for humanity itself. Web3 was supposed to be about scalable partnerships, not about cattle auctions of imaginary animals - but somehow we all collectively missed the point of why the technology was created to begin with. Some ideas in Web3 that I think still has some long-term potential: "useful" Proof-of-Work , Proof-of-Storage , the metaverse , DAOs, Proof-of-Identity , decentralized video , and of course, NFTs - after it becomes more “useful” to everyone. What these projects all have in common, though, is that they’re not quite production ready and are all in their alpha/beta stages right now. Great potential and great upside? Yes - still, yes. Are we there yet? No - not even close. Despite the hype, the tech behind crypto and Web3 systems haven’t evolved that much in the last few years - mostly because Web3’s biggest issue right now isn’t technical, it’s organizational/cultural: for the blockchain to have any use, the community needs to convince everyday businesses and people to adopt practices like ledger validations, using wallets for building social profiles, trackable and authoritative reputation/action/credit scores, etc. - all which are doable now on a technical level, but needs the cooperation of multiple organizations working in tandem with each other. Since crypto doesn’t deal with physical assets directly, it needs to validate itself through the utility of a service that is actually tangible to the average person out there. Most of that involves bridging social/cultural/industrial divides that Web2 companies never dared to cross. There’s a lot to be unlearned first before we can move onto the next phases of the crypto experiment itself. For now, though, there’s one obvious “utility” that I’ve been saving for last - interest rates from staking rewards. What makes this crypto cycle different from the others is that fiat systems and many government institutions around the globe are in big trouble this year: Bitcoin/crypto was “invented” sometime after 08’ as a direct response to the economic crisis then - but has largely existed in a 0% interest rate environment up until now. When interest rates start going up in fiat - possibly to 1970s levels, even - we have no idea how the coins themselves are going to respond. As the federal reserve continues to increase interest rates in response to inflation (they have no choice at this point), the general public’s attention will undoubtedly shift from a speculative mindset to a savings-based one - as it typically happens during recessionary times. Mortgage and loan rates have undoubtedly risen, but the banks have been slow to offer higher savings rates to people as a whole. Who’s actually paying out interest rates right now? Crypto. If the banks continue to drag its feet, coins that offer staking rewards (Tezos, Ethereum , Algorand, even Cardano) actually have a real competitive advantage to what fiat is offering right now. One number is higher than the other number - it’s pretty straightforward and an easier sell than trying to get people to buy animal jpgs, honestly. If crypto adapts faster than the banks do this year, this may actually when people finally begin to see the “utility” behind the technology itself. -- A Fork-in-the-Road - Which Do You Choose? -- 22’ is likely going to be an insane year for more reasons than one: we’re going to face economic, social, and political turmoil all at the same time, with crypto mixed into that chaos somewhere in the middle. But a reminder that money is relative - a market crash isn’t necessarily a bad thing if the result is cheaper goods on your money, and visa versa. The truth is that most people have been losing money every year even during these “good times” - the feeling of numbers getting higher in your bank account means nothing if the goods you pay for is rising higher than what you earn. So we already know that holding fiat is already a loss, and the one thing that made it worth it - stocks and housing - is about to tumble now, too. Crypto doesn’t need to be perfect, in other words: all it needs to do is prove itself better than fiat, which, in theory, shouldn’t be too hard to do as the Bernie Madoff 2.0s start emerging in the wake of a growth market gone sour. Whether or not crypto will go up or down during the recession this year has been a long-standing debate within the crypto community, and only time will tell which way it will go. But there’s basically two different ways to look at it - When the economy goes into a recession, so will crypto, because: - Buyers of crypto and stocks are more overlapped than not, and the two asset classes have historically always moved in parallel. - The idea that Bitcoin/crypto is a hedge against inflation has not panned out as hoped. - During recessions when budgets become tighter, people are less likely to put money into speculative assets, like crypto. - Crypto existed in a 0% interest rate environment for the most part and if you take that away, so will the momentum behind it as well. Or - when the economy goes into a recession, crypto will go up, because: - Total crypto adoption is ~10% of the world, at best. Still lots of room to grow. - Crypto adoption tends to be higher in countries with severe inflation - the loss of confidence in the banking and financial systems (which is happening already) often forces people to consider alternatives. - Staking rewards currently offer more interest than the banks and will be very appealing to some people as they shop around for competitive interest rates. - Bitcoin was created in 08’ financial crisis as a response to the problems leading up to it, so the emotional response to the next downturn will likely be more pro-crypto than not. So there’s a fork in the road here, and people HODLing crypto right now will have to make a choice regarding which path they want to take. I suggest that people take a hard look at their portfolio in the upcoming months and think about what they’re comfortable with and how they think things will unfold over the course of the next few years. The good news is that regardless of what happens, the inflation-fueled 1970s era was known for a lot of structural uncertainty but it was also the period of good music/art and great social change - something that I think will be a boon to the long-term health of the NFT markets as a whole. I get that we live in a very anti-social era right now, but at the end of the day, crypto is money, and money is about people. You can’t make real money unless you make some effort at understanding how people think. There’s plenty of reasons to think that the industry will do well in the long run, but it will take a lot of work to get there. If the community puts in the work, it will succeed because the opportunity is still definitely there - if not, it will fail. It’s pretty simple, really. Good luck and good fortune, folks. If you need me, I’ll be working on my next project, Teia Surf, in building the types of incentive structures that had always been the dream of Web3. As a lot of the veterans of the crypto industry would say - the best time to build, is now. 🤞🍀
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
1
Bond Yields Soar as APAC Prices in CPI and Fed's ReactionBonds have gotten slammed as yields have soared, smashing through several levels below when we've reported last, as the APAC session prices in CPI data from Friday. We smashed expectations for inflation and investors are rushing to price in the Fed's reaction. Barclays thinks that they will raise rates by 75 bps in order to counter these soaring numbers. We sliced through the 117's with ease and are finally finding support at the base of the 116 handle. We have projected another level of support at 115'29 using inverse Fibonacci extension levels since we've simply run out of support levels for the US ten year. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, however we do appear to be finally leveling off a bit, so perhaps this level will hold. If not, expect resistance from 116'20.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Check this out... BTC ANALYSIS High-timeframe (HTF) Technical Analysis -Breaker order block and imbalance (supply) are below the current BTC price and need to be tapped -THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS DIP IS THE UPTHRUST AFTER DISTRIBUTION (UTAD) IN THE HTF WYCOFF CYCLE WHICH IS SORT OF FORMING (there was a weak automatic reaction after the selling climax and no prices were tested even close to the first major low until now) -The trading range (represented by the white zone w/ midline) was mainly selling in the discount area (where accumulation would happen until there was a fake-out which acted as the last point of supply (LPSY) HTF MACRO -Although consumer spending and employment are doing well, interest rates are about to go through the roof. The supply chain issues have dampened the profits of businesses as it's causing higher costs; stagflation is also a possibility with inflation combined with a slowing economy -European and Chinese economic issues would also push selling pressure higher for BTC LOW TIME FRAME (LTF) Technical Analysis -Low-timeframe demand needs to be tapped above before continuing that far down -The point of interest is both of the purple zones which I have created using the VPSV and volume to identify where important demand zones are. LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by trevorweakland
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Jun22,Wk3I've mentioned for the longest time that the USD will keep appreciating, just look at USDJPY. There might be a chance of a retracement happening this Thursday, 2am(GMT+8) when the US bank interest rate is released, and if the movement break and close below the blue box(buy zone), we might have to reanalyse the market movement. For now, I'm waiting for a buying opportunity at 133.63 to capture the trend trading move by using a bullish flag pattern.
Long
by RaynLim
Gold Valtility Consolidates FurtherGold continues to consolidate in the mid 1800's. We have met strong resistance from a cluster of levels beginning at 1851, with strong resistance from the upper most of these at 1865. Earlierthis month, 1876 proved to be a hard upper bound, and we expect this to hold as a ceiling even if more momentum comes through. From below 1836 and 1826 should hold as a floor for now. Volatility has consolidated notably, suggesting that we may continue to range and establish value in this broad price.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Stabilize at LowsBonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08 is the next level where we should anticipate support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 116'20. A relief rally could take us as high as 119'01.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Markets Unresponsive to ETH2's Test Merge: What's Rallying Now?Ethereum holders were hoping for a big rally after this week's "merge" on ETH's primary test network, Ropsten, but so far the markets have been responsive. Coins that offer staking rewards, however, did fairly well this week as a whole - the two winners being Tezos (XTZ) and Chainlink (LINK) which saw big gains today and over the course of this week as a whole. Tezos: - Fork-less upgrades and on-chain governance models on XTZ provide tangible solutions to a lot of the issues the crypto industry is going through right now, especially in DAOs. - Recession talks are getting more people into a savings mindset - and Tezos' accessible and competitive rates (4.6%) makes it very appealing for crypto holders to convert to. - The interest in NFTs from artists and art collectors are starting to migrate over to chains like XTZ ever since gas-fees started to get out of control on the ETH ecosystems - time will tell if the Consensys "Merge" in August will have developers and artists return but for now, Tezos and other layer 2s are taking advantage of the lull and pulling ahead. Chainlink: - Working on many background infrastructure projects at high levels. - Has an interesting history (which involves the 4chan crowd, oddly enough) that gave it a cult-like status a few years ago that seems to be paying off today. -- While the crypto market as a whole has remained fairly flat-lined this week, the projects with the biggest gains seem to have a few things in common: the offer of staking rewards; and a visible community backing the project during its downturns, thus "buying the dip". If you're a long-term trader, these trends are positive signs that the asset has real resilience behind them. www.forbes.com
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
2