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Inflation

Slowing Inflation Data Brings Positive Price Action to Bitcoin The US CPI remained flat in May, beating forecasts and lifting bitcoin prices by nearly 4% on Wednesday: But bitcoin prices quickly retreated on Thursday as traders grappled with the possibility of just one rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. Trump voices support for Bitcoin mining at Mar-a-Lago: President Biden’s campaign also consulted the crypto industry on his digital asset policy. Gensler confirms spot ether ETFs are coming soon: In a Senate Banking hearing on Thursday, SEC chairman Gary Gensler said he expects spot ether ETFs will begin trading this summer. GameStop's stock drops 12%, impacting related meme tokens: The dip comes after recent highs and announcements of new share sales and declining quarterly sales. HSBC Bank's China branch begins offering e-CNY services to corporate clients: It’s the first foreign bank to support the digital yuan to facilitate transactions and asset management. The ZKsync Association will airdrop 3.675 billion ZK tokens next week: Early users and contributors will receive the distributions, with claims available until January 2025. 🗝️ Topic of the Week: Crypto and Retirement Accounts: 401ks and IRAs 👉 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
BTC DAILY: Inflation rates, CPI and FOMC todayBitcoin cleared nearest liquidity pool under ~66155 and closed above that level which might be a swing failure - bullish pattern. But too early to confirm that. Target for that bounce is May VAH zone + year VWAP VAH around 69.2k (for the wicks). These are conservative targets that assume rejection and pull back to 67600 at least with further consolidation. Today CPI and Inflation rates at 12.30 UTC and FOMC at 18 UTC time. That always cause extra volatility. As I wrote before, there was no correlation with global markets in this crypto dump. Stocks actually performed pretty well yesterday. And Dollar Index so far follows the drawn path I've shared two days ago. So I don't see any sufficient bearish pressure on BTC outside of crypto world. Bullish scenario comes into play if BTC find acceptance above year VWAP VAH. Nearest liquidity pools: above - 68256 / 68840 / 70400 / 72240 below - 66905 / 65760 / 64233 / 59960 Lines on the chart: 🔸73881 - ATH 🔸71363 - March close 🔸70393 - last W VAH 🔸69667 - week close 🔸68540 - last week close 🔸67577 - May close 🔸66239 - week close 🔸64025 - last April week close Trend: D ▶️ W 🔼 M 🔼 🤑 F&G: 72 < 74 < 72 < 75 < 72
by WiseAnalyze
US CPI Report Set to Influence Fed Decision and Market SentimentUS CPI Data Expected to Show Moderating Price Pressures Ahead of Fed Decision Key Highlights: Expected CPI Rise: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise by 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in May, maintaining the same pace as in April. Core CPI Inflation: Annual core CPI inflation is anticipated to slightly decrease from 3.6% in April to 3.5% in May. Impact on US Dollar and Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The upcoming inflation data could influence the US Dollar value and market expectations regarding a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Detailed Analysis: Upcoming CPI Data Release: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This report is expected to bring intense volatility to the US Dollar, as any surprises in the inflation figures could significantly impact market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions in September. Inflation Expectations: Overall CPI: Expected to rise by 3.4% YoY in May, consistent with April’s rate. Core CPI: Forecast to inch down to 3.5% YoY from 3.6% in April. Month-over-Month (MoM) Changes: The CPI is anticipated to increase by 0.1% in May, down from a 0.3% rise in April. Core CPI is likely to hold steady at a 0.3% MoM increase. Federal Reserve’s Stance: In a recent moderated discussion, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a dovish stance, expressing lower confidence in inflation moving back down and suggesting it is unlikely that the next move would be a rate hike. Powell's comments came just before the April CPI data release, which showed softened headline and core inflation. Labor Market Impact: A strong US labor market report, showing a substantial increase in Nonfarm Payrolls and higher-than-expected Average Hourly Earnings, has tempered market expectations for a September rate cut. Despite earlier optimism for rate cuts, the robust labor data has led markets to reassess the likelihood of such cuts. Banks' Expectations for CPI: Goldman Sachs: Predicts CPI to be at 3.3% year-over-year, slightly lower than the previous month. JP Morgan: Expects CPI to remain stable at 3.4%, indicating no significant change. Morgan Stanley: Anticipates a slight decline to 3.2%, reflecting easing inflation pressures. Bank of America: Foresees CPI at 3.3%, aligning with a gradual slowdown in inflation. Analysts’ Forecasts: According to TD Securities analysts, core inflation is expected to slow to a "soft" 0.3% MoM in May, with the headline likely rising by a softer 0.1% due to a significant decline in energy prices. They also noted a potential for a dovish surprise with an unrounded core CPI forecast of 0.26% MoM. Conclusion: The upcoming US CPI data release is crucial, with potentially significant impacts on the US Dollar and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A CPI reading in line with expectations could reinforce current market positions, while any deviation could trigger substantial market volatility. This comprehensive analysis outlines the expectations and potential impacts of the upcoming CPI data, providing valuable insights for market participants.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by SroshMayi
BTCUSD to reclaim highs and more?Highlighting the inverse relationship between the DXY (yellow line) and the BTCUSD. Potential weakness on the DXY tonight could see the BTCUSD continue its bounce from the support level of 66,000 (also formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) up toward the previous high of 72,000. If the price breaks above the resistance level, significant upside could be anticipated with the next target profit level around the 74,500 area
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
1
GBPUSD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)Considering the scenario that the CPI data is released higher and/or the FOMC presents a hawkish tone, this would mean that the US interest rates could stay high for longer. This would bring significant strength to the DXY which could see massive downside for the GBPUSD. However, the GBPUSD has developed a strong support along the 1.27 price level, formed by several swing points and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. In DXY strength, look for the GBPUSD to break the bullish trend line and the support level before anticipating further downside toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and support area of 1.25
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USDCAD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)USDCAD has been trading within the range of 1.3590 and 1.3780 since the start of May 2024. With the price action indicating a potential rejection of the resistance level, weakness in the DXY could see the USDCAD continue to reverse lower. A consideration as a trigger for the reversal is if the price breaks through the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous swing level at 1.3735. However, the downside is likely to be limited at the 1.3590 price level, due to the 50% and 38.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the shorter and longer term move forming a confluence with the bullish trendline around the support area.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
How will Stocks React to Inflation?The stock market's reaction to an inflation trend always involves a delay. Based on studies of the inflation trend, this delay is approximately 6 months. How about the inflation data month by month? Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by konhow
2
Golden, Green, or ScarletHey There, Welcome Back. Today we analyze the evergreen hedge commodity. - If you are an Indian, Given that Gold rallied almost 17% in a very short span You must be quite happy. We Indians love gold. Especially, the ladies in our homes. - The chart of Gold Futures is showing something interesting. The price took quite a rejection from the recent support zone. - If this rejection holds, we may see a correction/retracement. - On the other hand, we may just see a consolidation phase (Which is usual after a good rally) - Only future price action will tell what's what but in the meantime, here are a few rumors/updates to know in the vicinity of Gold (Some are just rumors so take it with a pinch of salt) : - BRICS Bloc is rumored to introduce a gold-backed currency that will any day be more reliable than the flat currency every other country has. - US is battling Economy slowdown and recession. The United States has the world's highest national debt with $30.1 trillion owed to creditors as of the first quarter of 2023- Al Jazeera. - The US Credit ratings were reduced to AA+ from the elite AAA - If the BRICS Currency comes out, 85% of the global population will stop using US Dollars for intra trades settlement (BRICS Nations) - Russia is out of the SWIFT System meaning USD Dealings are off the table. That reduces the demand for dollars. - Saudi Arabia is rumored to join BRICS. Also, for the first time, they are considering accepting other currencies besides the Dollar for Oil trades. This may hugely impact the almighty dollar. - In the calendar year 2022, central banks around the world purchased a record 1,136 tonnes of gold. - RBI’s hoard of gold is now almost 800 tonnes - China’s Central Bank is accumulating gold for straight 9 months - Gold may soon be the King once again. Does that mean we will start buying gold at any given price? Absolutely Not. But we will surely keep a check on the global news, the price action, and our overall asset allocations. Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇 ⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
MCX:GOLD1!
by TheChartereds
Inflation vs. Fed Decision: What's Driving Markets Next Week? While closely related, US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions can impact the market with varying intensity. The Fed aims to avoid surprising the market, whereas inflation is unpredictable. Consequently, the market is confident that the Fed will neither hike nor cut rates at the upcoming meeting. However, inflation forecasts are often inaccurate. According to TradingEconomics, US inflation year-over-year is forecast to have stalled at 3.4%. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index remained steady at 2.8% in April for the second month in a row. This stability suggests that inflation may persist longer than expected, raising doubts about how soon the Fed can cut interest rates. Traders currently see a 68% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September. Interestingly, today the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in borrowing rates for the eurozone, the first decrease since 2019. The ECB’s main refinancing rate is now 4.25%, down from a record high of 4.50%. With this rate reduction, the ECB follows the lead of the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, and the Bank of Canada. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
by BlackBull_Markets
Inverted Yield of 2022 Explained - Till TodayFor our housing loan, many of us, if you are in your 30s today and all the way to 70 years of age, will likely have chosen floating or short-term loan rates rather than longer-term loan rates. However, everything changed in 2022. Now, we are more likely to choose longer-term loan rates over floating rates. Why? Because today, longer-term loan rates are lower than floating rates. This phenomenon is called an inverted yield curve. In the 70s and 80s, there was also a period of inverted yields, and different markets moved accordingly as expected. Today, we are seeing an inverted yield once again, and the same markets are moving in a manner similar to those in the 70s and 80s. We will do a comparison between the 70s and today’s inverted yield. Please let me know what opportunities you see after this tutorial. 2 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Long
by konhow
2
Swiss franc climbing, eyes Swiss inflationSwiss franc has extended its gains on Monday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8961 in the North American session, down 0.68%. The Swiss franc posted its strong weekly gain of the year last week, rising 1.35%. The Swissie jumped over 1% on Thursday after Swiss National Bank President Jordan hinted that the central bank could intervene in the currency markets in order to keep a lid on inflation. Thomas’ comments gave a boost to the Swiss currency, which has sagged in 2024. Even with last week’s strong gains, however, the Swiss franc has plunged 7.1% against the US dollar. The Swiss franc weakened after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates in March. A weaker Swiss franc helped make Swiss exports more competitive on world markets, but the currency’s sharp descent may have become too much of a good thing, as it is feeding inflation and raising concerns at the central bank. The Swiss franc’s downswing has had a strong impact on market expectations for a rate cut at the June 28th meeting. In early May, swap markets priced a 66% probability of a rate cut, which has fallen to around 40%. The SNB isn’t likely to make good on Jordan's threat to buy Swiss francs unless the currency continues to show a sharp depreciation, but last week’s jump shows how comments from central bankers can cause sharp swings in the currency markets. Switzerland releases May CPI on Tuesday. This is the final economic release prior to the central bank’s rate meeting and could be a major factor in the SNB’s rate decision. Swiss CPI is expected to tick up to 0.4% m/m in May, compared to 0.3% in April. USD/CHF is testing support 0.8966. Below, there is support at 0.8909 0.9061 and 0.9118 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
The Dollar Remains On TrackThe dollar is right on its projected path as expected. Inflation has prevented the Fed from lowering rates at least once. Can we expect a rate drop before the end of the year? My guess is that even with a bit of inflation showing the Fed will drop rates at least once. There are several reasons for my conclusion here not least of which are weakening economic indications which are too numerous to list for the purposes of this post but some of which are the collapsing car market, cc default rates exploding, commercial real estate vacancies still increasing, and many other factors and lead indicators. There is also the fact that the Fed was initially expected to drop rates 3 times in 2024. Failing to drop at least once before the end of the year would have psychological ramifications on the market that potentially could be disastrous. And finally, there is the fun fact that historically the Fed has always adjusted rates in an election year. There is only one exception to this rule …2012. Based upon this statistic alone we can see that the probability of a rate adjustment this year is high. And we know that if there is an adjustment, it will almost certainly be to the downside as that is what has been expected all along. Any anomaly to expectations would cause chaos and catastrophe in the markets. All this being said we can then continue to expect the dollar to travel its expected pathway …down. 103.5 is the next support. Below that is that pink ascending trendline around 102 and rising.
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
EUR/USD shrugs as Eurozone CPI higher than expectedThe euro has edged higher after eurozone CPI was hotter than anticipated. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0848 in the European session, up 0.27% on the day. The inflation rate in the eurozone surprised the markets with a hotter-than-expected release for May. The headline figure rose to 2.6% y/y, up from 2.4% in each of the past two months and higher than the market estimate of 2.5%. Energy and services prices accelerated while food inflation slowed slightly. Core CPI climbed to 2.9% in May, up from 2.7% in April and above the market estimate of 2.8%. Will the hot inflation report put a dent in the European Central Bank’s plan to lower interest rates next week? Probably not, as the ECB has strongly signaled it will cut rates and a change of heart now would not be viewed kindly by the markets. The May inflation report was higher than expected but the gain was partially attributable to one-off factors, such as a change in German public transit costs. Still, May inflation was higher in Germany, France and Spain, an indication that the path to the ECB’s 2% target will be bumpy. The ECB has slashed inflation from a high of 10.6% in 2022 to below 3% and a rate cut will provide relief to consumers and also provide a boost to the sluggish eurozone economy. In the US, the week wraps up with the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7% y/y and 0.3% m/m, respectively. An unexpected reading could trigger some movement from EUR/USD in the North American session. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0855. Above, there is resistance at 1.0879 1.0822 and 1.0798 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EUR/USD climbs after US GDP, eurozone CPI nextThe euro has in positive territory on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0840 in the North American session, up 0.37% on the day. The week wraps up with eurozone inflation on Friday. The market estimate for May stands at 2.5% y/y/, compared to 2.4% in April. The core inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 2.8% y/y, up from 2.7% in April. In Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, inflation accelerated to 2.4% y/y in May, following a 2.2% gain in each of the past two months. This was the first time in five months that Germany’s inflation rate increased. On a monthly basis, inflation fell to 0.1%, a sharp drop from the 0.5% gain in April. The timing of the eurozone CPI release is significant, as it comes shortly before the European Central Bank rate meeting on June 6th. The ECB has strongly hinted that it will lower rates at the meeting and it would be a nasty surprise for the markets if the ECB changes its mind. With inflation under 3% and the eurozone grappling with sluggish economic activity, the conditions seems right for a rate cut. The ECB’s rate-tightening cycle has done a good job slashing inflation, and lower rates would provide some relief to households which are struggling with elevated rates and the high cost of living. In the US, second-estimate GDP was revised downwards to 1.3% y/y. This was below the 1.6% in the first estimate but higher than the market estimate of 1.2% and much weaker than the 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023. The drop in GDP was mainly attributable to weaker consumer spending, as consumers are yet to see any relief from the Fed’s high benchmark rate target of 5.25% to 5.50%. The Fed is concerned about stubbornly high inflation and FOMC members have been constantly pouring cold water on rate-cut expectations. The Fed has shown it can be patient and if the inflation picture doesn’t improve, it is conceivable that the Fed won’t lower rates before 2025. EUR/USD pushed past resistance at 1.0806 and is testing resistance at 1.0845 1.0765 and 1.0726 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Is Bitcoin a leading indicator of inflation?INDEX:BTCUSD Bitcoin is regarded (in some circles) as both a store of value and an inflation hedge. But what if Bitcoin is a leading indicator of inflation? In the chart shown, we can see the various Bitcoin peaks over the years preceding local peaks in US CPI (orange). The US interest rate is in blue. The last 4 peaks in US CPI YoY have occurred between 6.4 and 8.5 months after a peak in Bitcoin's price. Specifically: June 2016 high - 37 weeks (8.5 months) later at 2.7% December 2017 high - 28 weeks (6.4 months) later at 2.9% June 2019 high - 31 weeks (7.1 months later) at 2.5% November 2021 high - 33 weeks later (7.6 months later) at 9.1% It's also worth noting that the sequence of highs is the same; both BTC and CPI have a lower high, a higher high, lower high, then higher high. The peaks in 2011 and 2013 coincided with CPI highs 15 and 26 weeks later, but 2016/2017 was the time when crypto first entered the public's awareness. So why does this happen? Do Bitcoin whales buying lambos stimulate inflation? I'm joking, but I genuinely don't know, and I hope someone can explain lol. I've wondered if it's a case of correlation in that rising inflation is usually a sign of easy financial conditions—the ideal conditions for a risk asset like BTC to pump—with Bitcoin being the first to benefit as the ultimate risk asset (at least in the world of mainstream finance). I'm not sure though. The most concerning thing is the implication. We recently just made another all-time high in Bitcoin, but CPI sits at 3.4% at the time of writing, having moved sideways for almost a year now. As for whether this is a crazy coincidence, or me reaching to an astronomical degree, I don't know. The average period of time over these last 4 periods is 32 weeks, or around October/November time. The only catalysts I see are the US government spending money like it's going out of fashion and rising commodity prices. I'll also note that there doesn't seem to be any correlation with lows in inflation. Personal opinion on inflation: US inflation is stalling, rising, and falling across different measures. Producer prices, services inflation, annual PCE, and some core measures are tilting up. The only real decline recently has been core CPI. It's also interesting to note that 1 and 5-year Michigan inflation expectations are 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Multiple Fed officials have been hawkish lately: Fed's Barr: Q1 inflation was disappointing, it did not provide the confidence needed to ease monetary policy. Fed's Mester: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Fed's Bostic: It would not surprise me if it took longer to get to 2% inflation in the US than elsewhere. Given that we've reached a peak in interest rates (for the time being) but inflation has been moving sideways for around a year now, something has to change. It could be argued that monetary policy still needs time to work, but that doesn't really mesh with measures of inflation stalling or rising over the past year. Wouldn't the lag effect continue working to drive inflation lower? Likewise, why would the US economy be growing as fast as it is? One or more of three things will need to change: inflation, unemployment, or interest rates. Unemployment is at 3.9%, low by historical standards but rising since early 2022. Inflation, especially with what we've seen here, may also be on the rise soon. If the main lever the Fed has is monetary policy, it faces a dilemma. The data doesn't support a rate cut right now, while unemployment is rising slowly. If inflation begins to rise again, it may need to hike interest rates—not ideal when Joe desperately needs one for the upcoming election. This scenario of high inflation and high unemployment—stagflation—is what JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, has been warning of : 'It’s a warning Dimon has issued before, previously saying he fears America is headed for a repeat of the 1970s when everything “felt great” and then quickly about-turned to a period of high unemployment and inflation paired with low demand, also known as “stagflation.” Appearing at AllianceBernstein’s Strategic Decisions conference on Wednesday, Dimon said he simply can’t see how the past five years of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus could result in anything other than this scenario. As it stands, the US dollar looks ready to surge higher and clear 2023 highs: While SPY and BTC, adjusted for inflation (CPI figure taken from first day of trading), sit below their 2021 highs: I am aware that the human tendency to look for patterns and confirmation bias may be clouding my judgement. However, in my view, the market is severely underestimating the risk of higher inflation and a potential interest rate hike, which I believe will drive the dollar higher throughout the rest of 2024. According to the Bitcoin chart, another wave of inflation could be back above 7%+. I personally find that hard to imagine, but second round effects in the 1970s saw inflation shoot past its previous peak. Deutsche Bank has drawn parallels with the 1970s . Long-term views: Long USD, Oil Short risk assets (equities, crypto) Unsure on gold and silver but skewed lower For these views to be truly validated, I would like to see: TVC:DXY above 105.75 NYMEX:CL1! above 84 AMEX:SPY below 494 NASDAQ:QQQ below 414 INDEX:BTCUSD below 56,500 This is not financial advice, nor a recommendation. I wrote this to bring attention to something strange I'd found, and strongly encourage you to do your own research. Thank you for reading.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by pasojov
23
Forecasting the US 10-Year Yield: Insights for Q2 and Q3Traders, as we navigate through the second and third quarters, understanding the potential movements of the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y becomes increasingly crucial. Join me as we analyze the factors shaping the bond market and anticipate the trajectory of the 10-year yield in the coming months. I'm excited to share a comprehensive outlook, encompassing a short-term surge to 4.625%, a subsequent retracement to 4.3%, and finally, a bold move up to 5% by the end of July. TVC:US10Y Prepare for market turbulence! With inflation data grabbing the spotlight, brace yourself for a potential seismic shift in the financial landscape. As inflation data becomes the talk of the town, all eyes turn to the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y , which stands on the brink of a surge towards the pivotal 4.625% threshold. We're in for a wild ride as inflation data takes center stage and sets the stage for market volatility. Reasoning: Economic Recovery Outlook: Assessing the pace and trajectory of economic recovery will be paramount in forecasting the US 10-year yield. Keep an eye on key indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, employment figures, and consumer sentiment surveys. Inflation Expectations: Rising inflation expectations can put upward pressure on bond yields as investors demand higher returns to offset the eroding purchasing power of their investments. Monitor inflation data releases and central bank statements for insights into future policy actions. Profit-Taking Opportunity: In anticipation of the yield surge, I'm eyeing profit-taking opportunities on USD pairs. The heightened yield environment could attract investors seeking higher returns, driving up demand for the USD in the short term. Inflation Data Surge: As inflation data takes center stage, the US 10-year yield is poised to surge towards the critical 4.625% threshold. This anticipated increase in bond yields is likely to trigger a ripple effect across the forex market, particularly impacting USD pairs. Global Economic Trends: Global economic trends and geopolitical developments can also impact the US 10-year yield. Factors such as international trade dynamics, monetary policy decisions by major central banks, and geopolitical tensions can influence investor sentiment and bond market movements. As we journey through the second and third quarters, let's stay proactive and informed to capitalize on opportunities in the bond market. Join the discussion as we navigate the intricacies of bond yield forecasting! #US10YearYield #Forecasting #BondMarketAnalysis 📈📉💡
TVC:US10YLong
by mackmackeyy
Euro edges lower as German inflation accelerates The euro is quiet on Wednesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0840 in the North American session, down 0.14% on the day. Germany’s inflation rate rose to 2.4% y/y in May, following a 2.2% gain in each of the past two months. The reading was in line with expectations, which explains the euro’s muted reaction. This is the first time in five months that German inflation has accelerated, with the increase driven by higher services and food prices. On a monthly basis, inflation rose just 0.1%, sharply lower than the 0.5% gain in April and below the market estimate of 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy held steady at 3.0%. The higher-than-expected inflation report is an indication that inflationary pressures are alive and well in Europe’s largest economy. Eurozone CPI, which will be released on Friday, is expected to follow suit and tick higher to 2.5% y/y, compared to 2.4% in April. The European Central Bank will be carefully monitoring the eurozone CPI report, which comes less than a week before the ECB’s rate meeting. The central bank has signaled that it will lower rates at the June 6th meeting. Earlier this month, ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that there was a “strong likelihood” of a rate cut in June and stated that she was confident that inflation was under control. On Monday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that the ECB was ready to cut rates next week “barring major surprises”. Interestingly, this would mean that the ECB will lower rates ahead of the Federal Reserve, which is not expected to cut before September at the earliest. The Fed is usually a leader on rate policy, but high inflation in the US has delayed plans to lower rates. This could have unfavorable ramifications for the ECB, as the euro would likely depreciate after an ECB cut, which would raise the risk of a rise in inflation. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0845. Below, there is support at 1.0806 There is resistance at 1.0886 and 1.0925
by fisherkj4
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC