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Inflation

NZD/USD - RBNZ poised to cut, but by how much?The New Zealand dollar is down for a sixth straight day and has fallen 3.6% during that time. NZD has stabilized on Tuesday and is trading at 0.6120 in the North American session, down 0.07% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to a cut rates, but by how much? The markets have priced in an oversize rate cut of 50 basis points, but a modest cut of 25 bps cannot be ruled out. The RBNZ joined the rate-cutting club of major central banks in August after holding rates for over a year. The August cut which brought the cash rate down to 5.25%, marked the first rate cut in over four years. That move surprised the markets as the central bank had projected its first rate cut would not take place until mid-2025. Why would the RBNZ slash by 50 bps? Elevated interest rates have weighed on economic activity and GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter. Inflation eased to 3.3% in the second quarter, closer to the RBNZ’s upper band of the 1-3% target range. The RBNZ’s latest projections have inflation falling to 2.3% in Q3. The inflation report won’t be released until next week and if the RBNZ chops rates by 50 bps and inflation is higher than the RBNZ estimate, it will put the central bank in an awkward position. Another factor which supports a 50-bps cut is that the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 50 bps in September, which allows the RBNZ to do the same without risking a sharp decline in the value of the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6137 and 0.6161 There is support at 0.6100 and 0.6076
by OANDA
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
USDCHF Reaffirms Bearish Bias after Timid SNB & US PCEThe Swiss National Bank was the first major institution to shift to monetary easing and remains at the forefront after its third consecutive rate cut this week. However, it stuck with the small 0.25% increments, which are meager compared to the Fed’s jumbo 0.5% pivot and aggressive easing path. Furthermore, with rates already at 1%, the SNB easing runway may not be very long. Today’s US inflation figures favor the Fed’s dovishness, as headline PCE decelerated to 2.2% and the lowest in more than three years. These dynamics weigh on the pair and reaffirm the bearish below the EMA200. This sustains risk for further losses below 0.8333 and levels not seen since at least 2015, although sustained weakness below it is hard. Core PCE ticked up to 2.7% y/y and the Fed’s frontloading may fuel further persistence in price pressures and lead to fewer cuts later on. On the Swiss front, policymakers may not be able to avoid larger rate cuts. Inflation dropped to 1.1% in August and they expect further deceleration to 0.6% next year, while the elevated Franc harms exports and ads to the pressure for bigger policy moves and/or FX intervention. Despite the post-pandemic shift, the SNB has generally sought to keep the Swiss Franc from appreciating and has kept rates below zero for most of the past ten years. As a result, we can see another effort surpass the EMA200 and pause the bearish bias. This would bring the 38.2% Fibonacci of the May-September slump into the spotlight, but we are cautious around the ascending prospects as the upside looks unfriendly. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
2
Japanese yen soars as Tokyo Core CPI falls to 2%The Japanese yen is sharply higher on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 143.49 in the European session, down a massive 1.1%. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, slowed to 2% in September, down from 2's.4% in August and matching the market estimate. The drop was largely driven by the resumption of government subsidies for utility bills. The inflation reading indicates that Japan is on track to hit the Bank of Japan’s target of sustainable 2% inflation and the yen has responded with sharp gains today. This reading will support the case for further rate hikes, although that’s unlikely until December or early next year. Governor Ueda said this week that the BoJ is not in any rush to hike rates and that the focus will be on services prices data for October, which won’t be released until November, too late for the October 31 meeting. Wages have been rising but it remains to be seen if this will translate into higher services inflation. If it does, there will be pressure on the BoJ to raise rates at the December meeting. The week wraps up with US Core PCE Price Index, which is considered the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The index has hovered at 2.6% for the past three months and is expected to tick up to 2.7% for August. Monthly, the Core PCE is expected to remain at 0.2%. An unexpected reading could shake up the US dollar and the rate-cut odds for the Fed’s November meeting. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have slipped to 47%, down from 54% a day earlier, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. USD/JPY faces weekly resistance lines at 147.58 and 150.66 There is support at 142.67 and 140.84
by OANDA
USD/JPY jumps as BoJ Core CPI stallsThe Japanese yen is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.49, up 0.89% at the time of writing. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates and continue on the path to normalization. The BoJ lifted rates out of negative territory in March but rates are barely above zero and the markets are expecting further hikes, although the timing remains unclear. This has made the BoJ an outlier among the major central banks, which have lowered rates in response to falling inflation. In Japan, inflation has been on the rise and hit 3.0% in August after running at 2.8% in the prior three months. The BoJ has signaled that it will raise rates but has been cautious, and Governor Ueda said on Tuesday that the central bank can afford to wait and is not in any rush to hike rates. The US Conference Board consumer confidence index is usually not a market-mover but a very soft reading on Tuesday sent the US dollar lower against most of the major currencies. The index slipped to 98.7 in September, down sharply from a revised 105.6 in August and below the market estimate of 103.8. The US labor market has deteriorated and consumers are worried about job security. The US releases GDP (third estimate) for the second quarter with a forecast of 3.0%. This would confirm the second estimate and point to stronger economic growth after a 1.4% gain in the first quarter. Still, the Fed may be planning another jumbo rate cut – the markets have priced in a 50-basis point cut at the next meeting in November, according to CME’s FedWatch. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 143.67 and 144.23. Above, there is resistance at 145.23 There is support at 142.67 and 142.11
by OANDA
BTC - 9/24/2024Historically, unemployment and inflation tend to alternate each other- hence the Philips inversion curve and other trading philosophies. Inflation is not necessarily under check in my opinion, but retail and establishments are eyeing up entries here as central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and Fed start cutting their interest rates as job numbers have arguably seemed to look good. In any case, I see cash injections in the economy and eased lending leading to some faith for a bullish scenario. The last time inflation and unemployment alternated severity, it caused a pretty substantial drop in BTC prices before a super-cycle. I'm bullish on the cycle overall.
Long
by O_Positive
AUD/USD rises to eight-month high, RBA nextThe Australian dollar has started the week with gains. AUD/USD touched a high of 0.6850, its highest level this year. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6842, up 0.51% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% at Tuesday’s meeting. The RBA has held rates since November, making it an outlier among the major central banks, most of which have lowered interest rates. Underlying inflation is at 3.9%, much higher than the target of between 2% and 3%. Australia releases August CPI on Wednesday, with headline CPI expected to fall to 2.8%, compared to 3.5% in July. The RBA was more cautious than other central banks during the rate-tightening cycle and its cash rate peaked one percent below the Federal Reserve. The flip side is that the RBA has been less aggressive as far as cutting rates and Governor Bullock has said that there are no plans to cut before February 2025. The RBA’s rate hikes have chilled economic growth as consumption has fallen sharply and GDP grew by only 1% in the second quarter. Still, the labor market has remained robust and unemployment is at 4.2%, as large-scale immigration has boosted the economy and helped avoid a recession. In the US, today’s PMIs had no impact on AUD/USD. The manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.0 in September, down from 47.9 in August and well off the market estimate of 48.5. This was the lowest level in thirteen months as new orders fell sharply. The services sector is in better shape as the PMI ticked lower to 54.4, compared to 54.6 in August and slightly above the market estimate of 54.3. 0.6865 has held in resistance since December 2023. Above, there is resistance at 0.6923 0.6781 and 0.6723 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by 50 BPS, Crypto RalliesMarket Update - September 20th, 2024 Takeaways The Federal Reserve cuts rates:  The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it will cut the federal benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point (50 basis points), lowering the range to between 4.75% and 5%. Crypto markets responded well to the move, with the price of bitcoin pushing past $63,000. US crypto legislation still possible this year:  US senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) said in an interview Tuesday she thinks crypto legislation could be passed during the lame-duck session of Congress. US spot bitcoin ETFs pull in $187 million in inflows:  US spot bitcoin ETFs drew $187 million in inflows Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of inflows after a significant drawdown. Republicans ask for clarity on crypto airdrops:  US representative Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and other top Republican lawmakers sent a letter to SEC chair Gary Gensler asking for clarity on crypto airdrops. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by 50 BPS, Crypto Rallies The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it is lowering the benchmark federal funds rate by a half-percentage point (50 basis points) to between 4.75% and 5%. It marked the first interest rate cut in more than four years and signaled the Federal Reserve is ready to ease up on its fight against inflation. The move marked the first time since 2008 the Federal Reserve had cut interest rates by 50 basis points at one meeting. Many analysts had expected a quarter-point percentage cut, but cooling inflation and a soft labor market allowed Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to be more aggressive. In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation metric, dropped to 2.5% year-over-year, roughly hitting Powell’s 2% inflation target. The long-anticipated move sparked the broader markets. And crypto prices also rallied, with bitcoin pushing to roughly $63,500 and ether increasing to roughly $2,350 respectively. A low interest-rate environment is widely viewed as a greenshoot for risk assets including crypto, but it remains to be seen if a rate-cutting campaign will ultimately shoot bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to all-time highs. 🌐 Topic of the week: Global Stablecoin Ecosystem 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
$GBIRYY CPI (August/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY CPI Data (August/2024) 'UK Inflation Rate Steady at 2.2%' source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate ( ECONOMICS:GBIRYY ) in the UK steadied at 2.2% in August 2024, the same as in July, and in line with expectations. The largest upward contribution came from air fares while the biggest downward contributions came from prices for motor fuels, and restaurants and hotels. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.2% fall in July and also matching expectations.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
European Shares Gain as DAX Holds Bullish Momentum Ahead of CPIEuropean Shares Rise, Led by Tech and Resources Sectors European shares opened higher on Wednesday, with gains driven by the tech and basic resources sectors, as investors await a key U.S. inflation report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The DAX remains in a bullish momentum zone as long as it trades above 18,180, with potential targets at 18,520 and, beyond that, 18,645. The trend is expected to remain bullish ahead of the inflation data, and if the data aligns with expectations, this momentum is likely to strengthen. However, a break below 18,180 could signal a downturn, with the price potentially falling towards 17,960. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 18300 Resistance Levels: 18520, 18640, 18780 Support Levels: 18180, 17970, 17740 Expected Range: 18180 - 18780 Trend: Bullish as long as the price stays above 18,290 and 18,180.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by SroshMayi
Inflation Increases 2.5%, Setting Scene for Rate CutMarket Update, September 13th 2024 Takeaways Inflation stays under control: The Consumer Price Index increased 2.5% in August compared to the previous year, down from the 2.9% bump in July. The latest data indicates the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX has reached a $14 million settlement with Emergent Technologies, resolving a dispute over 55 million Robinhood shares: The agreement avoids further legal action and allows Emergent to finalize its bankruptcy proceedings. US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen a streak of daily net outflows, with nearly $1.2 billion withdrawn in just eight days: The downturn coincides with broader market volatility. The North Carolina Senate has passed a bill prohibiting state participation in any Federal Reserve-sponsored CBDC testing: The bill bans payments to the state using a CBDC. It passed despite a veto by Governor Roy Cooper. 🕰️ Topic of the Week: Understanding Interest Rates 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Euro rises after ECB cuts interest ratesThe euro has extended its gains on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1091 in the European session at the time of writing, up 0.13% today. The euro has climbed 0.7% since the ECB’s rate cut on Thursday. The European Central Bank delivered as expected on Thursday, trimming the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%. This was the second rate cut in the current rate-lowering cycle, as the ECB responded to falling inflation and a deteriorating eurozone economy. The war against inflation is largely won, which enabled the ECB to deliver the rate cut. Inflation in the eurozone has dropped to 2.2%, close to the target of 2%. The ECB updated inflation forecast was unchanged from June, with inflation expected to average 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 At a press conference, ECB President Lagarde reiterated that rate decisions would be made “meeting by meeting” based on economic data, essentially ditching forward guidance. Lagarde sounded somewhat hawkish, noting that wage growth remains high and the labor market is still resilient. The ECB is being cautious and has signaled it will take a slow approach to further cuts and the markets are looking at a cut in December. If economic conditions suddenly worsen, the central bank would have to consider a rate cut next month. The Federal Reserve meets next week and rate cut odds continue to swing wildly. The US producer price index eased to 1.7% y/y in August, down from a downwardly revised 2.1% in July and below the market estimate of 1.8%. This sent the odds of a half-point cut soaring to 41%, up from just 13% yesterday, according the CME’s FedWatch. The Fed meeting is live, with plenty of uncertainty as whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1099 and 1.1123 There is support at 1.1052 and 1.1028
by OANDA
Nasdaq Awaits CPI Report with Potential for Volatility &BreakoutNasdaq Technical Analysis U.S. futures remain steady ahead of the highly anticipated CPI report, which is expected to significantly impact market direction. Projections suggest the CPI will come in around 2.5%, signaling a weaker USD and likely driving indices into a strong bullish trend. However, if the CPI exceeds 2.7% or 2.8%, market movements may become unpredictable, with the potential for a downward shift. The Nasdaq is expected to consolidate between 18,630 and 18,930 until a breakout occurs, with heightened volatility likely around the release of the inflation data. If the CPI results are lower than expected, the price could surge toward 19,220, with the possibility of reaching 19,625, particularly if the price stabilizes above 18,220. On the other hand, a higher-than-expected CPI result (around 2.8%) may create volatility and support a decline toward 18,340. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 18800 Resistance Levels: 18930, 19220, 19625 Support Levels: 18630, 18340, 17890 Expected Trading Range: 18340 - 19220 Trend: Bullish Movement with High Volatile of CPI
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
USD/JPY drops below 141, US CPI drops to 2.5%The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Wednesday. USD/JPY fell as low as 140.70, its lowest level this year, before paring much of the losses. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.71 at the time of writing, down 0.52% on the day. The hotly-anticipated US inflation report didn’t shake up the markets as it was pretty much as advertised. Headline CPI eased to 2.5% y/y in August, down from 2.9% in July and matching expectations. This was the fifth straight decline in headline inflation. Monthly, CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, in line with the market estimate. Core CPI was unchanged at 3.2% y/y, matching the market estimate. Monthly, the core rate ticked up to 0.3%, up from the July gain of 0.2% and the market estimate of 0.2%. The inflation report comes just one week before the Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 18. Market rate cut odds have been swinging wildly as it remains unclear whether the Fed will cut by a modest 25 basis points or a jumbo 50-bps cut. The odds of a 50-bps move surged to 59% after the soft nonfarm payroll report on Friday, but were down to 27% just prior to today’s inflation report and have fallen to 15% following the release, according to the CME’s FedWatch. This puts the likelihood of a 25-bps cut at 85%, although we’re likely to see the odds continue to shift in the days ahead. The Bank of Japan meets on Sept. 20, two days after the Fed meeting. The BoJ is looking to continue tightening but will likely stay on the sidelines next week, as BoJ officials have ruled out a rate hike while the financial markets are unsteady. That could mean that the BoJ will push off a rate hike until December or January. USD/JPY tested support at 141.54 earlier. Below, there is support at 140.79 There is resistance at 142.80 and 143.31
by OANDA
Gold Poised for Bullish Move Amid CPI Expectations & Softer US.DGold Technical Analysis - 11 Sep. 2024: Gold Poised for Bullish Move Amid CPI Expectations and Softer U.S. Dollar Gold has reached the previously mentioned target of 2526, moving up from 2500. For today, market volatility is expected, but the outlook leans bullish if the CPI comes in at 2.5% or lower, which could drive the price higher toward 2543 and 2557. However, if the CPI is released at 2.8% or higher, it could trigger a bearish move, pushing gold back toward 2500 and potentially down to 2475. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2516 Resistance Levels: 2526, 2543, 2557 Support Levels: 2500, 2484, 2475 Expected Trading Range: 2500 - 2557 Trend: Bullish as long as the price remains above 2516. A break above 2526 would confirm strong bullish momentum. Previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%. Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month. Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
by BlackBull_Markets
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the trading sessions of the current week, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated significant downward movement, completing an Inner Index Dip at 5408 and establishing a new Mean Resistance level at 5530. There is a strong likelihood of a rebound to this level. Further, emphasis is placed on achieving the extended downward move to the target marked at Mean Support 5344, where a resilient rebound is anticipated.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
CRB Index: Impact on Commodities, Inflation, and the DollarIt’s been some time since we last looked at the Thomson Reuters CRB Index, a key indicator for tracking commodity performance and gauging inflation. With inflation softening recently, it’s not surprising that the CRB Index is also reversing. The chart shows a three-wave rally from the 2023 lows, which suggests a corrective movement in an ABC formation, as identified in Elliott Wave theory. When a correction like this concludes, the next move typically retraces the previous rally. Looking at the CRB Index, we expect prices to move even lower, possibly down to 241. This decline could be further driven by falling crude oil prices, especially if OPEC increases supply as recently announced. Some may wonder how this will impact the USD. Currently, the correlation is that lower commodities lead to lower CPI, which in turn suggests a lower USD due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Until the Fed cuts rates a few times, the correlation between a lower CRB and a lower USD could remain in play due to falling US yields. However, once rate cuts are nearing their end, that’s when the dollar may find a bottom.
TVC:TRJEFFCRBShort
by ew-forecast
BTC will continue to increase forever, but not in the short term COINBASE:BTCUSD , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:COIN , AMEX:HODL , AMEX:ARKB NASDAQ:IBIT , AMEX:GBTC The Long-Term Bullish Case The fundamental argument for Bitcoin's long-term bullishness remains strong. The US Dollar, as the world's reserve currency, has been steadily losing value over time due to excessive government spending and quantitative easing. This inflationary environment creates an ideal backdrop for Bitcoin, which is designed to be a deflationary asset with a limited supply. As investors seek to protect their wealth from inflation, Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value becomes increasingly compelling. Increased Institutional Investment One of the most significant developments in the cryptocurrency market has been the growing interest from institutional investors. These large financial institutions, such as hedge funds, pension funds, and asset managers, have the potential to significantly impact Bitcoin's price and volatility. As more institutions allocate a portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin, several positive effects can be expected: Decreased Volatility: Institutional investors tend to be more patient and less prone to panic selling than individual investors. Their long-term investment horizons and sophisticated risk management strategies can help to stabilize Bitcoin's price and reduce volatility. Improved Store of Value: Increased institutional adoption can enhance Bitcoin's reputation as a reliable store of value. As more mainstream financial institutions recognize Bitcoin's potential, it is likely to become a more widely accepted asset, which could boost its price and strengthen its position as a hedge against inflation. Increased Liquidity: Institutional participation can increase the liquidity of the Bitcoin market, making it easier for investors to buy and sell the cryptocurrency without significantly impacting its price. This can further contribute to price stability and reduce volatility. While the fundamental factors supporting Bitcoin's long-term bullish case remain strong, the technical analysis suggests a short-term bearish trend may be in play. Bitcoin is currently trading within a descending channel, a technical pattern that indicates a potential downtrend. This negative channel is formed by two downward-sloping lines that constrain the price action. As long as Bitcoin remains within this channel, there is a risk of further price declines. Additionally, a bearish crossover has occurred between Bitcoin's 100-day and 50-day moving averages and the 200-day moving average. This technical indicator is often used to identify potential trend reversals. When the shorter-term moving averages (100-day and 50-day) cross below the longer-term moving average (200-day), it is generally considered a negative signal, suggesting that the price may be heading lower.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Average_Joe_Options
TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONGTBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani