SP500 seasonality and market positioning are at oddsOn one hand, seasonality for the S&P 500 and indices in general tends to be unfavourable in September. On the other, asset managers are 'all in' being long the index which sits just beneath its record high. We weigh up the competing factors to decide whether we should tread carefully around seasonality, or simply ignore it.
MS
Indices
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 30, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Throughout the current week's trading sessions, the S&P 500 Index has exhibited notable fluctuations, initially reaching the Mean Support level of 5570 and subsequently demonstrating resilience by rebounding toward the specified targets outlined in the preceding weekly analysis, encompassing the completed Inner Index Rally at 5666 and Key Resistance level at 5667. Beyond those targets, the focus is on attaining the extended rebound targets, specifically the next Inner Index Rally at 5745 and the long-awaited Outer Index Rally at 5840. It is essential to recognize that achieving these targets will likely prompt a selling price action.
NAS100 H4 | Pullback Resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci RetracementNAS100 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 19,634.76 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 20,100.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 19,187.76 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USNAS100 / BREAKOUT SUPPLY ZONE !!! - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIMEFRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under upward pressure , until trading above turning level at 19,559
Upward Condition : The price is currently experiencing bullish momentum. As long as it remains above the 19,559 turning level , it is likely to move upward toward the resistance levels of 19,779 and then 20,097.
Downward Condition : To reach the 19,210 support level (1) , the price needs to first break the turning level by closing a 4-hour candle below 19,559. If it stabilizes below support level (1) , a further decline toward the support level (2) at 18,690 can be anticipated .
TARGET UPWARD ZONE :
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 19,770 .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 20,097 .
TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE :
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 19,210 .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 18,690 .
TURNING LEVEL : 19,559 .
DAX H4 | Strong bullish momentumDAX (GER30) is looking to make a bullish break above a swing-high resistance and could potentially rise higher from here.
Buy entry is at 18,855.31 (wait for the 1-hour candle to close above this level for confirmation).
Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 19,008.06 which is a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NAS100 - End Of August - Are you not satisfied???Hello Traders.
Come on guys, interact with the post if you seeing how accurate this is !
Notes for today
Price tapped into our zone i mentioned in the previous post, 19,666 was to far but but 19,630 was my entry.
Price was kind enough to come back to this point again today before NY killzone time.
If you followed me from Monday, i mentioned we will see lower prices possibly up to 19,120. So far so good.
If you caught it, you would be + 300 ticks minimum.
For today, i am done. Will relook at the charts tomorrow.
Trade safe 👌
US500 - SWING SHORT ideaPrice made a false breakout of the previous week high with a strong bearish reaction. Also, the start of the new week will probably be manipulation with distribution lower.
A great sign of weakness is when the new week candle open, makes a false run on one side with a a sweep of liquidity (many traders are trapped), and then distributes on the true side.
Possible setups for tomorrow after unemployment rate news We have filled the fair value gap from the 15 min TF. US30 has been bullish on the 1h, 4h and 1D Timeframe. Which gives us more confirmation that we might still be bullish. As i said in my last post if trend line was broken we might see a break to ATH, but for that to happen we needed high volume news, yesterday there was no news. we were bearish for the day, but yesterday makes my bias even stronger since the gap was filled and we touched a support area and then bounced on that area back up. Tomorrow at 8:30AM there is unemployment claims news, Forecast is expected to be the same as previous. If it stays the same we might see some consolidation or even bearish movements. But if claims were better than expected probability of breaking ATH is HIGH. Heres what i suggest if actual unemployment claims show up lower than previous and forecast.
1) go to 5 min TF find a good bullish entry with confirmation.
2) If and when price gets to ATH, move your SL to breakeven and take off half of your profit.
3) Keep dragging your SL 30 pips under the actual price after it breaks ATH.
Remember Trading is all about increasing your probability %, nothing is 100%. So keep your risk management tight and keep an eye on it and keep your charts simple.
Possible setups for tomorrow after unemployment rate news We have filled the fair value gap from the 15 min TF. US30 has been bullish on the 1h, 4h and 1D Timeframe. Which gives us more confirmation that we might still be bullish. As i said in my last post if trend line was broken we might see a break to ATH, but for that to happen we needed high volume news, yesterday there was no news. we were bearish for the day, but yesterday makes my bias even stronger since the gap was filled and we touched a support area and then bounced on that area back up. Tomorrow at 8:30AM there is unemployment claims news, Forecast is expected to be the same as previous. If it stays the same we might see some consolidation or even bearish movements. But if claims were better than expected probability of breaking ATH is HIGH. Heres what i suggest if actual claims show up higher than previous and forecast.
1) go to 5 min TF find a good bullish entry with confirmation.
2) If and when price gets to ATH, move your SL to breakeven and take off half of your profit.
3) Keep dragging your SL 30 pips under the actual price after it breaks ATH.
Remember Trading is all about increasing your probability %, nothing is 100%. So keep your risk management tight and keep an eye on it.
#SPX intermarket analysisAs observed, the SPX and Copper have shown a strong positive correlation over the past few weeks, often forming tops and bottoms simultaneously.
Given that Copper recently failed to break above a long-term bearish channel upper line and has broken its structure to the downside, we might expect a similar move in the SPX.
However, when trading SPX based on this intermarket analysis, it's crucial to wait for a price confirmation in the SPX itself before taking any action.
US30 ( UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4H US30 / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
in the last analyses reached our target + 450 pip profit .
Tendency , prices is under upward pressure , until trading above turning level at 2,507$
Upward Condition: With the price holding steady at the current turning level (1) at 41,040 and retest with stabilizing above turning level (2) at 40,680 , it is likely to rise towards the resistance level (1) of 41,401. If it stabilizes above this level, it could then reach the next target level of 41,864.
Downward Condition : To reach the 40,239 support level (1) , the price needs to first break the turning level (2) by closing a 4-hour candle below 40,680 . If it stabilizes below support level (1) , a further decline toward the support level (2) at 39,812 can be anticipated .
TARGET UPWARD ZONE :
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 41,401 .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 41,864 .
TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE :
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 40,239 .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 39,812 .
TURNING LEVEL : 41,040 , 40,680 .
S&P500 Consolidation Phase Towards The UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5540 zone, SPX is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5540 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DAX H4 | Falling to overlap supportThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,579.74 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 18,400.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 18,760.14 which is a swing-high resistance.0
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Nas100 - End of August Update Hello Traders 🌍
So far so good, as mentioned yesterday. We making lower moves, ultimately i would like to see price move to 19,120 by the end of this week.
Notes
- Price left Friday's high + PWH intact
- Created bearish displacement during NY am session
- Total move plus 250 ticks from London
- 4hr Gap zone showing good price reaction
- Possible US tech selloff
today i am anticipating a move lower, however will sit on my hands until we between 19,630 and 19,666 for OTE, if all works out well.
Remember this is subjective price will tell us around 2:45am to 05:00am where it might want to go.
Trade safe 👌
China A50 stalemate nears potential breaking pointLooking at A50 on the daily, you can see the index has been stuck in a downtrend since the middle of May, with only brief countertrend rallies interrupting the broader move lower. The index looks to be in another right now, grinding higher after bottoming in early August. However, the price has been rejected multiple times at the 200-day moving average, including this week, seeing it drift back to test channel support.
Given the limited distance between the two levels, and proximity of downtrend resistance that now intersects with the 200DMA, it feels like we’ll get some resolution on medium-term directional risks at some stage this week. From a momentum perspective, RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bullish signals on momentum, marginally favouring upside over downside.
My preference would be to wait for a break in either direction before entering trades.
If the price manages to break through the 200DMA and uptrend, traders could initiate longs above the former resistance zone with a tight stop below for protection. Possible targets include 12,000 or 12,352. Alternatively, if channel support breaks, you could sell below with a stop above for protection. Targets include 11,638, 11450 or 11,375.
Good luck!
DS
Why the 'record high' on Dow Jones underwhelms...Another day, another record high for a US stock market. Only the one seen on the Dow Jones underwhelms given it is not backed up by its own futures market, let alone its peers. We're also approaching end-of-month flows (which can prompt fickle price action). And keep an eye on the Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday (US) which can single-handedly drive sentiment on Wall Street.
NAS100USD / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under upward pressure , until trading above turning level at 40,680
Upward Condition : The price is currently experiencing bullish momentum. As long as it remains above the 19,600 turning level , it is likely to move upward toward the resistance levels of 20,234 and then 20,553 .
Downward Condition : To reach the 19,188 support level (1) , the price needs to first break the turning level by closing a 4-hour candle below 19,600 . If it stabilizes below support level (1) , a further decline toward the support level (2) at 18,774 can be anticipated .
TARGET UPWARD ZONE :
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 20,234 .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 20,553 .
TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE :
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 19,188 .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 18,747 .
TURNING LEVEL : 19,600 .
SPX500 H4 | Approaching all-time highSPX500 is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,673.64 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high.
Stop loss is at 5,710.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and the all-time high.
Take profit is at 5,579.72 which is an overlap support level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.