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IMOEX Marco technical - One more massive correction or...? My macro work on Russian MOEX Index illustrates how ElliotWave in conjunction with major fibonacci retracements can be useful in providing the context or the operational frame work for every investor and trader to operate and execute one's strategy. Starting from the market Oct'98, we may observe how the price structure has accurately finished its cyclical five wave move lasting almost exactly 23 years to Nov'21 finishing its run just 2.5% bellow an proper (though extended) target for the cyclical wave "V". The EW theory, first elaborated by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1930s, and later perfected to the most practical investing/trading principals by Avi Gilburt from elliottwavetrader.net, states that most of corrective structures develop in three waves: A-B-C. After finishing what I consider to be first cyclical macro five wave advance in Nov21, the price moved into deep and abrupt correction, straight to the ideal golden ratio (0.618) support zone where it is most typical for any correction (macro and micro) to establish a bottom. That was not particular to average character of the three wave corrective structures (being so abrupt), but the support parameters were met. Never the less in my global technical thesis, I still lean towards the macro correction from the Nov'21 highs NOT being complete and the price is yet to start its third wave decline to 1650 (double bottom) or even 930 zone. I am 55/45 on that regard. That being sad, I cannot completely rule out the possibility of price to have established long-term macro bottom on Feb22 and that we may be already in the very early process of the new (generational?) bull-cycle. As strange as it may sound in today's global political landscape, new macro generational potential for IMOEX, could be very much considered in the realms of several important circumstances happing in Russia: 1. Currency devaluation (bullish for equities); 2. Inflation (typically bullish for equities); 3. Internal barriers to withdraw capital (indirectly bullish); 4. Redomiciliation of large corporations and their capital; 5. Record interest of citizen to local stock market, resulting in record breaking numbers of new accounts opening on Moscow Stock Exchange. 6. Perspective budget deficit that will result in point #1 (bullish for stock) Macro parameter to differentaite between Macro-Bearish and Macro-Bullish scenarios is simple: until price is bellow 3700 area, macro-bearish case cannot be rule-out. The Mid/Short-Term Analysis Until price decisively breaks 2800, I cannot consider the mid-term bullish advance in either cycle wave "B" (macro bearish case), or wave (3) (in generational-bullish case) toped and expect at least one more wave up to 3370-3650 area in Q4 or Q1'24. It is yet early to consider that price has finished its Sep's correction at 3000 area and until price is bellow 3220 resistance zone, I expect one more decline to 2800. If price moves above 3200, than I will shift to yellow/green alt. scenario that wave 4 correction has finished and the price is on its wave to new 2023 highs.
RUS:IRUSLong
by artemfedorov
NASDAQ: Can hit 17,000 if the 1D MA50 breaks again.Nasdaq remains bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 40.412, MACD = -138.180, ADX = 35.654) but it is on the HL trendline, the supporting trendline that emerged on the December 28th 2022 low. According to the 1D RSI, comparisons can be made with the September-October 2020 consolidation fractal around the 1D MA50, following the COVID recovery. After the 1D MA50 got crossed over for the second time, the index went on to reach the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level before the next consolidation. If the HL holds and the index breaks over the 1D MA50 again, we will have a strong long term bullish case in our hands and target 17,000 (Fibonacci 1.786). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
BXY, Important, Crucial BEAR-Fractals, Setup of a Next Wave!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of the BXY. Within recent times there are major factors moving the BXY as the inflationary pressures within the BXY are still increasing paired with a historically high interest rate of 5.25% that was seen the last time during the financial crisis of 2008 this is already indicating a high bearish sentiment dynamic that should not be underestimated in any cases. Also, a major stagnation within the BXY is ongoing with YoY productivity stagnating and not forming any new highs. These factors are determining an increased private sector debt demand that is near an all-time high. These high levels of private sector debt demand have been seen the last time in the financial crisis of 2008 similarly to the high interest rates. The high private sector debt demand is accelerating the bearish momentum for the BXY. Considering the underlying chart dynamics the BXY is still trading within this enormous gigantic descending channel formation in which it has a major supply distribution channel within the upper boundaries. This supply distribution channel has been already the origin of the major bearish wave A accelerating towards the bearish direction. Exactly the same bearish fractal is setting up now once again as the BXY is pulling back off the upper resistance boundaries. Furthermore, the BXY has already completed the massive ascending triangle formation with a substantial breakout below the lower boundary completing the whole ascending triangle formation and accelerating the bearish confirmation and continuation dynamics. Now, the BXY already activated the target zone of 115 with the completion of this gigantic ascending triangle formation once this target zone has been reached there is a high potential for further continuation. Taking these factors into perspective, the BXY is completing two major bearish formations here, and especially with the bearish distribution channel breakout to emerge in the next times this is going to activate the next targets within the lower boundary regions of the gigantic descending channel formation to form a paramount new lower low within this whole chart. An increased interest rate together with an accelerated private sector debt demand moving to all-time highs lastly seen in the financial crisis of 2008 are going to increase the bearish dynamics. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of BXY. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
TVC:BXY
by VincePrince
10
Looking for short entry on the $NQ overnight session.I believe price action will play out the way the blue bars are illustrated in the yellow circle. Will be looking for a short entry within the pink box range. A lot of people are calling for a counter-trend rally on the $NQ after this massive move down. But I don't think much more than a 1-4 candle correction will result. And as noted by my projection, I believe it will have been a 1 day correction and a weak one at that. May your P&L be green and fat. This is a long term swing trade with 1st profit target at ~ $13,600. Cheers and good luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by DegenerateSatoshi
correction wave formation in S&P 500Elliott Wave Analysis:- correction Wave's:- View 1:- A wave and B wave was completed for forming a regular flat / Zig-Zag . C wave was expected to fall upto 4197 - 4270 . View 2:- If the C wave never break level 4335 of A wave then triangle pattern is in formation. D wave never break B wave. View 3:- If B wave go beyond 4607 it may form an irregular flat and it may go upto 4860 - 4718 . i'm not a SEBI registered advisor. Before taking a trade do your own analysis or consult a financial advisor. I share chart for education purpose only. I share my trade setup.
SP:SPX
by n0m0ret0ss
Analyzing Nasdaq-100 $NAS100 for Potential Double Top ReversalThe NAsdaq-100 (NAs100) index is currently displaying a classic double top formation on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential bearish reversal following a robust 7-month rally. This surge was primarily propelled by a select group of companies utilizing AI technology. A Double Top pattern, characterized by two almost equal peaks, serves as a bearish reversal indicator. It suggests a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, signifying a slowdown in buying pressure and an emerging influence of sellers in the market. To confirm a downtrend, keen observation of the critical support level at 14,500 is vital. A breach below this level would not only cross the intersecting trendline but could potentially prompt a 5% decline in the index in the short term. Such a move could mark the beginning of a bearish market sentiment. An intriguing correlation exists with NVIDIA's chart, which shares similarities with this pattern. Thus, it's imperative to closely monitor this tech giant's performance, given its significant influence on the broader tech sector and, consequently, the entire market. This information should be viewed as guidance and not definitive instructions. Thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor are essential before making any investment decisions.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Blast910