Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD Trading In A Temporary CorrectionAussie turned up last week after better than expected AUD employment data. From a technical perspective we adjusted the wave count as current bounce is part of a minimum three wave recovery since it turned up impulsive in the first part, labeled as red wave A). As such, there will be more upside coming now within an A)-B)-C) structure which may stop near 0.7640. Bigger picture remains potentially bearish for Aussie as long as 0.7747 holds.
Impulsive
Elliott Wave Analysis: GBPUSD Trading In A Five Wave ImpulseGBPUSD trading in a three wave correction of wave 4, now in final stages of sub-wave c. That said support for the corrective wave 4 may be around the 38.2 Fibonacci ratio, from where a new reversal higher into wave 5 may follow. Afterwards wave 5 of 3) may reach levels around the 1.2919 region.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Five Wave Move On GBPJPY Seems CompletedIntraday chart of GBPJPY is showing us a nice five wave rally to the upside, with price now particularly trading in late stages of wave v. That said we believe a three wave decline may come in play as a contra trend reaction and later find support around the 138.29-139.05 zone.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Correction On EURNZD May Be FinishedEURNZD seems to be trading in a corrective retracement of wave B, after a five wave move to the upside had unfolded in the previous wave A. That said recent fall can be sub-wave C, that may see some limited downside around the lower channel line. That said, a breach above the upper corrective channel line will suggest higher levels to follow.
Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD Sharply Turning LowerOn the 4h count of EURUSD we see price trading south following a completed zig-zag correction that was in progress since the start of the year. Reversal down is strong and clearly impulsive, thus an important sign of a top in place, meaning a minimum three wave drop is expected to unfold, which should resume after current rally is completed. We see this rally as corrective wave (2) that touched first resistance near 1.0690 but there is room for 1.0740 before bears may step in. Daily close price below 1.0567 will indicate that wave two is finished.
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Trading In Final Wave 5USDJPY is falling, now seen in fifth wave of decline of wave C) which can be in final stages now. As such, traders should be aware of a bounce ideally from around the lower channel line that comes in near 109.00. Minor five waves up from there and back to 111.50 will be an important evidence for a change in trend.
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCAD Eyeing 1.3180 RegionUSDCAD has turned nicely down from 1.3533, clearly with five waves which is a structure of a bearish turn based on the Elliott Wave principle. As such, we now expect even more weakness after recently unfolded three wave bounce from 1.3262 that is pointing lower into wave three. We think that 1.3262 is going to be broken this week from where market may see a drop to 1.3180 short-term objective.
Possible Wave 3 of 3 to follow completion of Wave 2 (ZigZag)A Wave 2 ZigZag has completed at the .618 retracment of Wave 1 which is a strong indication the correction has complete. The price has already made a bounce from this level and seems to be in a correction which has probably has further downside before the up move. This initial bounce could be the beginning of a Wave 3. The larger picture shows this Wave 3 could be part of a Wave 3, this means it is likely going to be a strong impulsive move.
Entry Level:
I will be setting a conservative pending entry at the break of Wave B of the ZigZag.
Stop Loss:
At the extreme of Wave C of the ZigZag.
Target Level:
The target marked on the chart is a 1.618 multiple of Wave 1. There is potential for a more upside after this level. As always I will monitor pattern over setting a hard take profit.
Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD Intraday ViewAUDUSD is moving nicely down as expected following that turn down from 0.7584 resistance that we highlighted a few times in our past updates. We see pair now trading near 0.7500, but in fifth wave so downside can be limited in the near-term as new three wave rally may show up.
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Intraday ViewUSDJPY is displaying qualities of a triangle correction in wave 4, which could be as of current intra-day drop completed. We see price trading around the 110.77 level which could be wave two as part of a five wave drop within wave 5. That said a decisive drop beneath the 110.24 level will suggest lower levels to follow.
Elliott Wave Analysis: CADJPY Could Be In For A ReversalAs you might know, we are looking higher on stocks based on Elliott Wave structure after only three waves of decline on E-mini S&P500 from 2400 highs. So more upside on stocks is normally bearish for Japanese yen, in risk-on environment. At the same time we see Oil prices in bullish mode as well which can be supportive for the Canadian dollar. What all that said, CADJPY can be an interesting pair in the coming sessions and days. Not only because of those market correlations, but also because of the wave structure which shows wave C) down to be an ending diagonal; this is a reversal pattern which can already be pointing to the upside if we consider five waves up on 30min chart.
NZDUSD Trading In Temporary Wave Four; Final Drop In ViewOn the 4h chart of NZDUSD we can see a nice higher degree bearish breakdown to be in progress, with price now specifically trading in red wave 4). The ideal reversal zone for wave 4) may be around the upper channel line, where sub-wave Y may find resistance. A break beneath the 0.6990 level would suggest lower levels to follow.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Bears On EURUSD Taking ChargeOn the updated count of EURUSD we see price trading south following a completed a zig-zag correction, that was in progress since start of the year. Current reversal is strong and clearly impulsive, thus an important sign of a top in place, meaning a minimum three wave reversal to the downside may start to unfold but ideally that's a start of an impulsive drop in wave five of a higher degree. At the moment we see price trading in the first wave 1), probably in late stages, so let's be aware of correction that may pop up during the process in the next few sessions as wave 2), that may later find resistance around the previous swing low at the 1.0760 level.
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCAD Trading In A Temporary CorrectionUSDCAD remains above 1.3262 low so pair is actually still trapped in a corrective price action ; we are looking at an A-B-C move that may still retest levels around 1.3440-1.3460 which appears to be an ideal resistance zone, so drop may show up later this week. On the other-hand strong fall and daily close below 1.3262 would be first evidence that correction is already finished.
Elliott Wave Analysis: 10 Year T-Notes Trapp In A CorrectionOn the 10 Year US Notes we see price undergoing a potential five wave drop, with price now trading in wave four as part of this drop. That said, price seems to be undergoing some slow and choppy price activity, which means wave four may unfold as more complex. As such we expect more overlapping price movement to come in play and probably a triangle correction will unfold.
Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD Intraday LookEURUSD is at the lows, without any solid pullbacks in the last few days, but we still think it will show up in the near-term. An updated count shows a five wave decline that can be ready for a turn. Watch out for an upward channel line; break above it may finally put bullish a-b-c run back to 1.0766.
Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index Looking Up Into Wave 5We see price trading in a three wave correction in wave 4), with recent drop being the final sub-wave (C) of this correction. This correction will ideally unfold as a simple zig-zag pattern, that will find some support around the lower channel line and bounce higher into wave 5).
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCHF Undergoing A Bullish ReversalOn the updated chart of USDCHF, we see price undergoing a nice sharp and strong rally to the upside, probably as an indication for a reversal. If that is the case, then recent big three wave pattern to the downside is completed and more gains may follow in the near-term. For a confirmation, that the previous pattern is completed, we would need a decisive breach above the previous wave 4 and five minor waves to unfold to the upside.
Invalidation level is at 0.9813 - as long as it holds we are looking bullish.
Elliott Wave Analysis: GBPUSD Looking To Aim LowerIt appears that flows have changed over the last 24-48 hours, since stocks found a support on Monday with E-mini S&P500 turning nicely up from 2320 area. This has a strong impact on some majors, especially on EUR and GBP against the buck after Theresa May signed Article 50 letter to leave Europe and start with negotiations in the following months. Long-term speaking I think that this can be better news for GBP rather than EUR, but in the short-term both can see lower levels which can also be visible on EUR and GBP crosses.
Pound is falling sharply from 1.2615; it has impulsive qualities so more weakness may be seen in sessions ahead. We see near-term resistance for EU session lying at 1.2472.
Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD Trading In A Temporary CorrectionAUDUSD is trading in a correction of a higher degree, with current rally being part of wave C of 2). That said the mentioned bounce may find some resistance around the 0.7648 or if rally is stronger around the previous wave 2 at the 0.7684 level. Either way, we see this pair going to the downside in the next couple of days.
Why USDJPY Could Move Lower..Hello Traders,
we hope you had a successful trading week. In this short update, we wanted to talk about the USDJPY and why it could move lower thru out next week.
After the market rose about 17.09% in last years impulsive to the upside, the USDJPY was in a sideways trend for weeks.
Now the market broke its key level of 111.476, which could open up an extension lower to around the last resistance now acting as new support at around 107.456. With the health bill rejected today, we could see throughout risk equity weakness next week. Which would consist with USDJPY trading lower on risk aversion.
If we don't see any significant fundamental changes throughout next week, were going to search for short opportunities in USDJPY, especially with the break of the important resistance.
We will keep you updated on this one. We wish you a relaxed weekend. Trade with care and always use a stop loss while trading and don't overleverage, otherwise you will lose your account!
Cheers