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Gold Market Analysis: Fed Speculation and Dollar StrengthFundamental Overview: US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Speculations: Gold’s price movement is currently influenced by the strength of the US Dollar, driven by shifting expectations regarding interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Following the release of mixed US labor market data, investor bets on a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in September have decreased. The probability of such a cut is now seen at 29%, down from 47% before the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This shift in expectations has strengthened the US Dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Safe-Haven Demand and Global Concerns: Despite the downward pressure from the stronger dollar, concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The precious metal remains supported as a hedge against risk during times of economic uncertainty. Moreover, rising US Treasury yields contribute to gold’s struggles, as higher yields make other assets more attractive compared to non-yielding gold. Upcoming Inflation Data: All eyes are on the upcoming US inflation data, which could significantly impact gold’s price movements. Inflation is a key indicator for the Fed’s future rate decisions, and any surprises in the data could trigger volatility in both the US Dollar and gold. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could dampen the prospects for aggressive Fed rate cuts, further pressuring gold. Fed’s Blackout Period: The Fed has entered its “blackout period” ahead of the September 18th policy decision, meaning there will be no further communication from central bankers. This leaves gold trading in a familiar range, awaiting clearer direction from inflation data and the upcoming Fed decision. Outlook and Key Events: Bullish Scenario: If gold manages to hold the $2,499 support level and breaks through the $2,532 resistance, it could extend gains towards $2,550. Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to defend the $2,499 level, it could drop to $2,472 and potentially $2,461. A further strengthening of the dollar and rising yields would exert additional bearish pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Analysis: Fundamental and Technical OutlookFundamental Overview: Eurozone Inflation: Recent inflation data from the eurozone points toward expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). This could weigh on the euro in the medium term, as lower interest rates generally reduce the currency's appeal by offering lower yields for investors. US Economic Data: The August jobs report revealed weaker-than-expected growth in the private sector, with only 99,000 jobs added compared to the forecast of 145,000. This contributed to the US dollar’s weakness. US Monetary Policy: Current market expectations suggest a 43% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This factor weakens the dollar further, but a shift in sentiment based on economic data could reverse the trend. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.1160 serves as the first key resistance level, followed by 1.1200, which marks the endpoint of the latest uptrend. If the rally continues, 1.1250 becomes the next target for buyers. Support Levels: If EUR/USD falls below 1.1100, it could trigger bearish pressure. The next significant support lies at 1.1040 .
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 9-13th: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 9 - 13th. In this video, we will cover: S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!
by RT_Money
2
Tesla High Timeframe Analysis - Targeting 2023 HighsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only, showing how I intend to participate in this market. Trading involves significant risk. Do your own due diligence. Utilizing my Multi Timeframe strategy, I have identified that I would like to look for LONGS on Tesla. To clarify, I'm not saying I'm blindly longing this market. If I see price action that checks the boxes for this strategy, I will take the long. Until then, I do NOTHING. Feel free to shoot me a message with any questions. Have a great week!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Tradius_Trades
GBPUSD - Short Trade IdeaHello hello, We have a short trade idea on GU for the coming week, anticipating the next 12h candle. I am expecting a move into at least one of the iFVGs on 12h timeframe before a move lower with multiple targets graded by my probability hierarchy. Last week we had NFP which took price to a relatively high level. As is said, "The bodies tell the story and the wicks do the damage". And as usual, during these super high impact news drivers, the wicks can go above and beyond what is normally expected of them. As the bodies are being respectful, I am keen to anticipate the aforementioned trade. There is more imbalances below that I anticipate price will be drawn to, creating more structure on the sub-weekly timeframes in order to move higher, which is still my current overall bias for XXXUSD pairs until price shows me otherwise on the DXY. For now, I will still follow what the PD Arrays are printing. In terms of stoploss, the swing high would be a bit far, but as usual I would be waiting on the lower timeframe for a higher RR trade at least to Target 1. From there I would have to see what PD Arrays are being formed on the lower hourly timeframes. Let's see what happens! - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded