HSI DOUBLE TECHNICAL INDICATOR CONFIRMATIONUsing confirmation for both the Fibonacci retracement level and inverse head & shoulder, the strategy is potentially robust enough to cover both bull and bear situation.
Strategy:
1. if moving toward resistance 1 and breakthrough, can long targeting resistance 2 using support 1 as a potential stop-loss point.
2. if moving toward support 2 and breakthrough, can short targeting support 3 using support 2 as a potential stop-loss point.
Note: This idea is simply speculation and does not indicate any recommendation nor take any responsibility.
Hang Seng HSI
Coming Down NicelyAfter the Buying Climax on 7th of July, brief distribution was carried out between 25950-26250.
Today saw a gap down and a selloff to first of the 4 unfilled gaps below which is acting as a support for time being.
Key resistance above now is 25850-950.
Move down so far appears to be in a channel formation.
Major chunk of distribution took place between 24500-300 since the low in March. Gap through that will signal the start of a markdown and accelerated move towards 20k and below.
Regards
I am "Mr Invincible"Do you love money ? I think you and I do but the Chinese really loves money.
Two things that really make them rich, I mean filthy rich in China. One is property and the other is the stock market. And they are risk takers though not necessarily prudent in managing risks.
They do not hold back when they think or feel this is the time to go all in. Read article here
I lived in Singapore and thus far I have not heard about the government encouraging the people to put money in the stock market, directly or indirectly. Not China, not USA and maybe some other countries.
Let's take a look at the chart. Both SHCOMP and China A50 which I posted my views ( here and here )
Both are up about 30% from the bottom in March 2020 while Hang Seng Index (HSI) is only up about 17%, which offers more potential for upside.
Again, I advocate prudent risk management. I have said and shown through various indices, stocks in Hang Seng and China that I bought that showed good profits. There is no need to ask your friends for money, go to bank and borrow nor sell your house and sink the whole kitchen into the stock market. This , to me is taking on too much risks, maybe not for others.
Average up slowly on each pullback and each time, stick to the 1-2% risk per trade rules. Avoid doubling or tripling your position sizes hoping to make money quicker and within a shorter time. Mr Market can be nice to us but it can also become nasty at a turn of events that you and I cannot know nor predict like the Covid-19.
In the words of legendary Warren Buffett- the first rule of trading is not to lose your money. That means at all time protect your capital. So guys, chill and not to think this bull run is going to be over soon and your fear of missing out cause you to go take on additional risks.
Think of your loved ones, family and even yourself. Always think what if I am wrong ? That is not being cowardly like some traders said but being RESPONSIBLE. Maybe, you think it is ok to go all in and worst case scenario, you just put in the extra hours to earn back the money.
But if you have dependants that need your income to pay the bills, education, rentals, etc, then it is wiser to think twice. Everyone situation is different, do the best you can without following others blindly. Such "all or nothing" mindset is taking things to extreme and is betting big on luck to be on their side.
Another thing is having peace of mind. If your portfolio is in the red, your life still goes on. But if it affects you so much then, you probably have weighed too much in and you need to pull back a little. Strike a balance.
May the blessings of God be with you.
1 Peter 5:8
Buying Climax and a Top?
Zigzagged with huge volume(see above) at the open, took out the stops above the very important level marked in Yesterday's post and has since been on the decline. We will know for sure in next few sessions but there is a good chance that Today marks the start of a significant decline which will take HSI to 20k and below if my analysis of distribution near the 24k level are correct.
First significant support is the gap at 25250-500. It can get real ugly in no time so trade carefully.
Hong Kong Stock Index (A Strong PushUP We Had)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (4 JUNE 2020)
We had Extreme strong MOve UP on HSI and it was massive.
So, after the Glory fade, it is normal for profit-taking to set in and it may pull back a little bit.
We expect the pullback can go to as low as 25,500 regions but the overall bull move may still get pretty much sustained. So, please watch out 25,500 regions carefully.
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Update: SELL SELL SELL!!!
More on the post earlier Today.
HSI now has rallied beyond the point which i have marked for few weeks as the potential turning point. We may see brief distribution between 25950-26250 for couple of sessions and then move lower. I am to remain short until it breaks above 26800.
I am of a view that the rally so far this month after the passing of controversial security law is to trap the investors who were on the sidelines waiting to see how the market perceives the new law.
There is 10 weeks of distribution near 24k. If it reverses, 20k may come in no time.
Hong Kong Index (Wheresoever you go, go with all your heart)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (4 JUNE 2020)
Geopolitical tension is flaring in Hong Kong city-state and it can bring a negative impact on its Stock Market.
Today is the holiday and HSI will open from tomorrow.
For the past 2 weeks, it was hovering at the support region of 24,250, it shall get broken sooner or later.
23,130 region will be the next support level.
So, buckle up Dorothy.
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Breaking up with HUGE VolumeToday saw a huge surge in volume in the morning hour. Double the usual.
Next few days are critical.
From a bullish POV, HSI is now breaking out of a 10 week range with a high volume but to predict whether it truly is a break to the top or a trap, it is important to know what happened within the range and how the market approached the breakout.
To my understanding, it was distribution(as i have been pointing out in my previous posts) and there is very little left in it.
2 possible scenarios to top out are as drawn on the chart. Triangle(Blue). Ending Diagonal(Orange).
Regards
Low Volume Consolidation and a break up.As updated on 16th, selloff last week from 25255 seemed uncharacteristic of a markdown. Gaps were quickly being filled and volume in the morning hour on 3 days following the top showed minimum enthusiasm from either side.
Too early to call but low volume consolidation may mean a developing triangle.
I am seeing something along the lines drawn at the chart. Keep an eye on S&P. It may coincide with S&P filling the gap from Feb or making new ATH.
If wrong, selloff should start in next couple of days. If so, refer to post "HSI Update" on Jun 13th for the anticipated path.
Regards
HSI/HK50: 25% correction & best level to RELOAD/BULLS(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
-TOP author on TradingView
-15+ years experience in markets
-Professional chart break downs
-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
-No junk on my charts
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HSI/HK50: 25% correction & best level to RELOAD/BULLS(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: HSI/HK50 weekly chart review
::: massive H*S setup in progress
::: 25% correction up next
::: runaway BEAR gap previously
::: signals more downside mid-term
::: PT is 19 000 within 4-10 weeks now
::: weak chart and no upside until S/R
::: right now you can only SHORT IT
::: correction can last 4-10 weeks
::: 19 000 best reload BULLS later after corr
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: N/A
::: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9/Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment: BEARS
::: Sentiment outlook short-term: BEARISH
HSI UpdateTop did come albeit 2 days late, important or not, we will know in next few days. Ideally, i would like to hv seen more distribution between 25k-26k but as pointed out in previous posts, there was high volume selling in the last move up from 22400 so it was bound to run out of gas real soon.
Pullbacks should be capped below 24500. Definitely dont want to see 24800 tested anytime soon. 22900-22400 will be key and if the markdown has started, this area needs to be quickly overcome perhaps with an acceleration gap.
I am not of a view that it is the start of deflationary crash as many expect and fear. NOT YET at least. Refer to my 23 May post, "Markdown or Shakeout?" linked below.
Quickly down to 20k and back to 25k-26k :D. One can dream.
Important TOP just ahead.
Didn't get the pullback before run for new highs as anticipated in the last analysis but on the flip side it means very little left to distribute. A pullback would have meant more to distribute above but now it looks like a quick up and back down.
We have 7 weeks of distribution mainly between 23750 - 24250(See previous posts)
Without volume, the last few days may seem like a start of a strong uptrend but zoom in and it appears very much like a SL hunt. Trends can't start without first accumulation/distribution and i see very little accumulation below for it to keep going for long.
Initial plan was to go short at 25300-500 but not sure if we will get there so i will look for reversal signs as soon as it gets above 24800. Target 20500 - 20000.
Some news will follow real soon as always but markets only move when those who control them are ready to move.
Hang Seng outlookPrice continues higher, soon should be approaching resistance zone and 50% fib level as economies around the world are opening and demand returns.
Once that level breaks, we can buy and target the 61.8% level below 26000.
Intraday early entries possible on smaller time frames.
Please support the idea and share your thoughts on HSI!
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!