HODL vs Distribution or Bitcoin Doesn't Reproduce in CaptivityThe new generation of investors is more likely to lose interest in bitcoin that is not for sale. Price and time tend to infinity at the same speed.
Hodl
KCS - Strong Again!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 KCS has been overall bearish , trading within the falling channel in blue.
However, KCS is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support - the lower bound of its range.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #KCS approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bitcoin - Keeping It Simple!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📦 After rejecting the $70,000 - $72,000 resistance zone, BTC has been hovering within a narrow range during a correction phase.
📈 For this impulse phase from $20,000 to persist and push towards the next resistance at $80,000, a break above the $72,000 mark is needed.
📉 In parallel, if the $60,000 support is broken downward, we expect an over-extended bearish correction towards the $50,000 - $52,000 support zone.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first, and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BTC => ActionHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
As per my last analysis, BTC rejected the $70,000 - $72,000 resistance zone and is currently trading lower.
What's next?
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish - Continuation
For the bulls to maintain control, a break above the $72,000 resistance is needed.
In this case, a movement towards the $80,000 resistance would be expected.
2️⃣ Bearish - Correction
In parallel, if the last low marked in red is broken downward, we expect the bearish correction to start leading to a movement towards $60,000.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BTC - Short-term View! Update...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈As per my last analysis, attached on the chart, BTC rejected the blue circle and traded higher.
What's next?
🏹 For the bulls to maintain control, and take over from a long-term perspective, a break above the $72,000 resistance is needed.
In parallel, if the lower blue trendline is broken downward, a bearish correction would be expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC - Short-term View!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 BTC has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel in blue.
Currently, BTC is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting a structure and trendline in red.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the red structure and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As long as the red support zone holds, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Trading opportunity for APTRUSDT (Spot)Based on technical factors there is a Buy position in :
📊 APTRUSDT
🔵 Buy Now 0.05770
🏹 Target 1 0.07300
🏹 Target 2 0.09900
🏹 Target 3 0.19000
💸RISK : 1%
We hope it is profitable for you ❤️
Please support our activity with your likes👍 and comments📝
BTC - Ready For Some Action?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
As per my last analysis, BTC rejected the $60,000 support and traded higher.
What's next?
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish - Continuation
For the bulls to maintain control, a break above the $72,000 resistance is needed.
In this case, a movement towards the $80,000 resistance would be expected.
2️⃣ Bearish - Correction
In parallel, if the last low marked in red is broken downward, we expect the bearish correction to start leading to a movement towards $60,000.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
MTL TRENDING NEW LONGHi Traders,
I hope you all are doing well and navigating the crypto market with your best strategies.
This update is for MTLUSDT.
MTL is looking interesting over the next time frames and may show increased volume. That's why we're keeping an eye on this coin.
$2.00 is a key confirmation zone. If the coin breaks this level, there's a high chance it could reach $2.68
Remember, there are no guarantees in the market. Always follow a consistent system based on your own strategies and analysis.
Good times, everyone.
This update is not trading or financial advice.
BTC - Are You Ready?📈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 BTC has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel in blue.
Currently, BTC is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting a structure in red.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the red structure and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC - Make or Break Zone 📈📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
As per my last analysis, attached on the chart, BTC broke above the accumulation phase and traded higher.
Currently, BTC is hovering around the upper bound of the range.
What's next?
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish - Continuation
For the bulls to maintain control, a break above the upper bound of the range at $72,000 is needed.
In this case, a movement towards the $80,000 resistance would be expected.
2️⃣ Bearish - Correction
In parallel, if the lower red trendline is broken downward, we expect a bearish movement towards the lower bound of the blue channel.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
ETH - It is Happening! 🦋Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
As per my last analysis, shown in the attached chart, ETH rejected the $3000 round number and surged by over 20%.
What's next?
📈As long as the $3500 round number holds, we expect a continuation towards the previous all-time high of around $4800.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
And always remember:
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH - Deja Vu🦋Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
For those who know me, I always enjoy studying previous price action.
📌Today, I want to share an interesting pattern I found on ETH.
Back in Summer 2021, ETH experienced a parabolic bullish impulse (depicted in blue), followed by a correction (shown in purple) to reject the $3000 support before commencing another bullish impulse movement.
If we apply the same logic to the current price action, ETH is currently in the correction phase, rejecting the $3000 support.
Thus, I will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes, speculating on the next bullish impulse movement.
Of course, this pattern will be invalidated if the $3000 mark is broken downward.
🗒 What do you think? Will history repeat itself?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
And always remember:
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH - Wait For The Bulls!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📦 ETH has been trading within a big range around the $2,800 - $3,000 support in the shape of a flat rising channel.
Currently, ETH is hovering around the lower bound of the support and rising channel.
As long as the $2,800 support level holds, we expect the bulls to kick in soon!
📈 For the bulls to take over and start the next bullish impulse movement, a break above the last major high in green at $3,000 is needed.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BTC - Accumulation or Short Buildup❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
BTC has been hovering within a narrow range marked in red around the $60,000 - $62,000 support zone.
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish - Accumulation
For the bulls to take full control again, a break above the upper bound of the range is needed.
In this case, a movement towards the $69,000 resistance would be expected.
2️⃣ Bearish - Short Buildup
In parallel, if the $60,000 support is broken downward, we expect a bearish movement towards the lower bound of the orange channel around $55,000.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
MATIC - Clean and Clear ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
On Weekly: Left Chart
MATIC has been hovering within a big range in the shape of a flat rising channel marked in blue.
Currently, MATIC is approaching the lower bound of the range, so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
On Daily: Right Chart
📈 For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close below above the last major high highlighted in gray.
📉 Meanwhile, MATIC would be bearish short-term and can still trade lower inside the weekly support.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BTC - Bullish this Weekend⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 BTC has been overall bearish short-term trading within the falling channel in red.
🏹 For the bulls to regain control, a break above the last major high in red is needed.
Meanwhile, BTC can still trade lower to test the $59,000 - $60,000 demand zone before trading higher.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
SOL - Massive Demand Ahead 🏹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 After rejecting the $200 round number, SOL has been bearish as a correction phase.
🏹 The $100 - $115 range is a massive demand zone to look for buy setups and capture the next bullish impulse movement.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #SOL nears the demand zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC - Bearish Short-Term Until...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 After breaking below the last major low in red, BTC has been bearish from a short-term perspective trading within the falling channel marked in red.
🏹 For the bulls to regain control, a break above the upper red trendline is needed.
Meanwhile, further bearish movement towards the lower bound of the red channel would be expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
DCA - is for those who do not like to be nervousIn the fast-paced and often volatile world of cryptocurrency, finding best investment strategy can be a daunting task. While many traders seek quick gains through active trading, a more prudent and less stressful approach exists: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA).
What is DCA?
DCA is an investment strategy that involves investing a fixed amount of money into a particular asset at regular intervals, regardless of the asset's price. This approach aims to reduce the impact of market volatility on investment returns by averaging out the purchase price over time.
Why is DCA the Sleep-Well Strategy?
DCA offers several advantages that make it an ideal strategy for investors seeking long-term growth and peace of mind:
Emotional Discipline: DCA eliminates the emotional decision-making that often plagues traders. By investing consistently, regardless of price fluctuations, you avoid the urge to buy high and sell low.
Reduced Risk: DCA averages out the purchase price, reducing the overall impact of market volatility. You may buy some coins at higher prices, but you'll also benefit from lower prices, evening out your investment cost.
Long-Term Focus: DCA encourages a long-term investment mindset, discouraging impulsive decisions based on short-term price movements. It's about building wealth gradually and consistently over time.
DCA vs. Trading:
DCA stands in stark contrast to active trading, which involves buying and selling assets frequently to capitalize on short-term price movements. While active trading may appeal to experienced traders with high-risk tolerance, it often leads to emotional decision-making and can be time-consuming and stressful.
DCA: A Proven Strategy with Remarkable Returns
To illustrate the effectiveness of DCA, let's examine the returns of some prominent cryptocurrencies over the past few years, assuming a monthly DCA investment of $100:
Bitcoin (BTC): Investing $100 monthly in BTC since January 2019 would have yielded a staggering 112% return, with a total investment of $12,000 growing to $25,440.
Ethereum (ETH): A DCA approach for ETH since January 2019 would have resulted in an impressive 770% return.
Solana (SOL): DCA into SOL since January 2021 would have generated a remarkable 304% return
Fetch.ai (FET): Investing $100 monthly in FET since January 2019 would have yielded an exceptional 776% return
Understanding the Coins: Technology and Applications
Bitcoin (BTC): The world's first and most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that enables peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries.
Ethereum (ETH): A decentralized blockchain platform, Ethereum supports a wide range of applications, including smart contracts, decentralized finance (DeFi), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
Solana (SOL): A high-performance blockchain known for its scalability and speed, Solana aims to provide a faster and more efficient alternative to Ethereum.
Fetch.ai (FET): An AI-powered decentralized platform, Fetch.ai facilitates the development of autonomous agents for various applications, including open marketplaces and data monetization.
Conclusion:
DCA is a powerful investment strategy that allows individuals to build wealth in cryptocurrency while minimizing risk and emotional stress. By consistently investing fixed amounts, regardless of market fluctuations, DCA investors can reap significant rewards over the long term. Embrace DCA, sleep well, and let your investments grow steadily towards a brighter financial future.
HODL with a TwistCME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! )
Federal Reserve monetary policy is the dominant market mover across asset classes. Financial markets around the world rise and fall by any hint of the next policy move.
Last Friday, US stocks jumped after a weak April jobs report boosted hopes that the Fed could start cutting interest rates soon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 450 points, or 1.18%, to 38,675. The S&P 500 surged 1.26% to 5,128, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.99% to close at 16,156.
The nonfarm payrolls report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed 175,000 jobs gain in April, below the 240,000 jobs expected by Dow Jones economist survey. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%, versus 3.8% in March.
After the jobs report, traders now price in a second rate cut by the end of 2024. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a 66% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker of futures market pricing.
Don’t Pinch Your Hope on More Rate Cuts
Investors often attempt to front run the Fed’s decisions. Track records show that they are usually wagering the wrong bet. As recently as last December, they expected seven rate cuts in 2024 and pushed major stock indexes to a series of new record highs. Lately, the rebounding inflation ditched the hopes for early rate cuts. Before last week, market consensus was down to one rate cut in 2024, with talks of no cut and even a rate hike.
In my opinion, investors speculating on rate cuts overlooked a key factor, the 2024 US Presidential Election. With election day less than six months away, the Fed would be cautious with abrupt policy moves. They tend not to shift policy directions ahead of the election, just to stay clear of any accusation of influencing the result in any way.
Many investors pinch rate cut hopes on the assumption that the Fed would ease rates to help the current Administration get reelected. They failed to understand that the Fed Chair is not a cabinet member. He reports to the Congress, not the President. The Federal Open Market Committee, the rate-setting body, is not a department in the Executive Branch. It was founded by the Congress and will report to the Congress only.
The Fed has kept the rate higher for longer than many of us expected. Since the last rate hike in July 2023, they kept the Fed Funds rate unchanged in the past six meetings.
Borrowing costs, including mortgage rate, auto financing, credit card and business loan, have all been pushed up significantly in the last two years. One or two rate cuts would not materially lessen the cost burden incurred by households and businesses.
Despite headwinds and signs of the US economy cooling off, US stocks are currently priced near their all-time high levels. It is not a good time to jump in and chase the high prices. On the other hand, shorting the market now is a risky proposition. Investors exhibit strong tolerance for bad news. The best move is to wait. Outside of stocks, cryptocurrencies show upside potentials, particularly from a long-term perspective.
Investing in Bitcoin for the Long Haul
On February 14th, I posted this trade idea, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”. At the time, spot Bitcoin was trading at around $50,000. Bitcoin reached a new all-time-high of $73,000 on May 3rd. It has since fallen to as low as $58,000 and is now trading at $64,125.
I identified three fundamental key drivers for a secular long-term bull market for cryptocurrencies, which is recapped below:
• Firstly, there is a limited supply of bitcoins with a total cap of 21 million.
• Secondly, the demand for crypto investment could increase substantially.
• Thirdly, an excessive dollar supply could help raise bitcoin prices.
Today, I would like to focus on the technical strength illustrated in Bitcoin price chart. In the past eight years, Bitcoin managed to reach a new high four times, after experiencing significant drawdown each time.
• After peaking at $20,089 in 2017, Bitcoin fell 84% to $3,191 by December 2018.
• The next bull run, starting in September 2020, pushed Bitcoin price to a new ATH at $58,777 in March 2021. This is a gain of 192% from the previous ATH, and up 1742% from the previous low.
• Bitcoin price was cut in half to $29,562 in July, before rising to another ATH of $69,000 in November 2021. This is a gain of 17% from the previous ATH, and up 133% from the previous low.
• In the next year, Bitcoin fell to $16,625, a drawdown of 76%. The SEC approval of Bitcoin ETF pushes the benchmark cryptocurrency to its new ATH of $73,000 in March 2024. This is a gain of 6% from the previous ATH, and up 339% from the previous low.
Bitcoin price trend shows that investing in Bitcoin in the long run has been profitable. However, timing makes a significant difference in investment returns.
Trading Bitcoin with Futures Rollover Strategy
While the view of holding on for dear life (HODL) is shared by many Bitcoin investors. There are several issues when it comes to investment strategies.
Firstly, with bitcoin trading over $64,000, future price increases do not offer the same level of return dollar for dollar. Hypothetically, if Bitcoin goes back up to its ATH of FWB:73K from GETTEX:64K , the $9,000 gain equals to 14% in return. For a comparison, if you bought Bitcoin for $17K in December 2022, the same $9,000 gain would be 53% in return. To counter the effect of higher prices, investors could consider using leverage.
CME Micro BTC futures ( LSE:MBT ) provide leverage and capital efficiency. The contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $1,515. The June contract (MBTM4) was last settled at $63,865. At current price there is a 4.2 times leverage built in the contract, which is the ratio of 6,386.5 (1/10 of 1 BTC) divided by 1,515. If the futures price touches the previous ATH, a long futures position would gain $913 (= 7,300-6,387), and the return would be a +60%, vs. +14% investing in spot Bitcoin, as we illustrated above.
Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin trades actively in the nearby May and June contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up. A trader may be right about the long-term rise in Bitcoin prices. However, this may not happen in the next two months before the nearby contracts expire.
To maintain a long position in Bitcoin over the long run, while enjoying capital efficiency through leverage, a trader may employ a futures rollover strategy.
Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding.
The title chart illustrate how to hold a long Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) position overtime:
• In April, a trader buys (going long) a June contract (MBTM4).
• Approximately two weeks before the contract expires on June 28th, the trader enter an offsetting trade, going short on MBTM4, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling and purchasing prices.
• Simultaneously, the trader would buy an August MBT contract (MBTQ4) and reestablish a long position in Bitcoin.
• In mid-August, the trader will close out MBTQ4 (going short), and buy an October contract (MBTV4), and continue to hold a long position on Bitcoin.
• The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view.
Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls.
One advantage Micro Bitcoin has over the spot crypto is the daily price limit. If Bitcoin moves up or down 10% within the trading day, futures trading will be halted. This will give the market time to cool off and help investors avoid being blown out by short-term panic.
Experienced investors may consider using stop loss on futures or buying a protective put options to hedge such downside risks.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
BTC - 60k Support Confirmed 👌Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📦 This week, BTC confirmed the rejecting of the $60,000 support.
📈As long as the $60,000 support holds, I am expecting a continuation towards the next resistance at $70,000.
🏹 Then for the bulls to remain in control, and test the $82,000 and upper bound of the red channel, a break above the $72,000 resistance is needed.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
ETH - Critical Zone 👀Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
As per my last analysis, ETH is now hovering around the $2900 - $3000 support.
What's next?
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish
For the bulls to take full control again, a break above the last high marked in red is needed.
In this case, a movement towards the upper orange trendline and blue structure at $3350 would be expected.
2️⃣ Bearish
In parallel, if the $2,900 support is broken downward, we expect a bearish movement towards the $2,500 - $2,600 demand zone.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
