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HK50 "Hong Kong 50" Index Market Heist Plan on Bullish SideHello!! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist HK50 "Hong Kong 50" Index Market Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback. Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 4H timeframe Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. 💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Long
by Thief_Trader
HK50 Hong Kong 50 Index Market Money Heist Plan on Bearish SideOla! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑💰 This is our master plan to Heist HK50 "Hong Kong 50 Index" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Near the Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰. Entry 👇 📉: Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe, Recent / Nearest High Point. Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 2h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Short side, If you've got a money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. 💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by Thief_Trader
HK50 "Hong Kong" CFD Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Nǐ hǎo! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist HK50 "Hong Kong" CFD Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Long
by Thief_Trader
HK50 "Hong Kong 50" Market Heist Plan on BearishHello My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑💰 This is our master plan to Heist HK50 "Hong Kong 50" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing High Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 2h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by Thief_Trader
HK50 short ideas (short-term)HK has had a strong rebound. I hope traders are enjoying the profit or dividend payouts. However, the November month usually comes with bare movements (check the last 2-3 years). A retracement is also needed from the long downtrend breakout. Wait for your retracement confluences to enter. I suggest you take partial profit and add a sell position @22 600 and TP @20 190. I am expecting setup 1 but setup 2 is also probable. Remember to not over leverage your open positions and practice good risk management on this.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by Fumba
2
HK50 "Hong Kong 50" Market Robbery Plan on Bullish SideHola ola My Dear, Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, This is our master plan to Heist HK50 "Hong Kong 50" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan.....
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by Thief_Trader
HK50 gave back all of its gains over the past month BYD and Li Auto dropped by 5.57% and 7.29%, respectively, exerting a decisive impact on the decline of HK50. Despite BYD's reporting of favorable 2Q earnings with a 26% increase in sales, the results fell below expectations. Meanwhile, Li Auto's 2Q performance was down 45% YoY, while sales increased by 10%. However, the 5.6% decline in electric vehicle deliveries in Aug compared to the previous month raised concerns about the Chinese EV market. With growing export tensions, the outlook for Chinese EV manufacturers will likely worsen in 2024, further amplifying the negative sentiment toward the index. HK50 gave up all the two-week gains and closed at around 17150. The index still holds above the descending channel's upper bound but slid below both EMAs, sending apparent bearish signals. If HK50 fails to hold above both EMAs and breaks the 16700 support, the index may reenter the descending channel and fall further to the 15850 support. Conversely, if HK50 climbs above both EMAs and extends its uptrend to the short-term high at 18200, the index could gain upward momentum to the resistance at 18600.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by inkicho_exness
HK50 Bullish side Money heist planMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist HK50 Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent Swing Low Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by Thief_Trader
Hang Seng bulls eye retest of 18kWe'll admit that the Hang Seng does not have the most bullish of structures among APAC indices, but it continues to defy bears with a break of key support. And if sentiment for global indices picks up as we suspect, it could pave the way for another cheeky long for Hang Seng bulls. The index has seen three failed attempts to break beneath 17500 since late June. Sure, we saw one daily close below it, but the move was mostly reversed on Monday. A bullish divergence is also forming on the daily RSI (2), hence the bias for another crack at 18k minimum - a break above which brings the June and July highs around 18,400 into focus. Yet as the 4-hour chart shows prices paused at the weekly pivot point with RSI (2) overbought, we'd prefer to wait to see if prices retrace within Monday's range before seeking longs. This could help improve the reward to risk ratio for bulls whilst prices hold above last week's low, with 18,000 and 18,400 in focus for upside targets.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by CityIndex
HK50 HongKong 50 Bearish Robbery plan To Make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist HK50 based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level Police Force is waiting for our arrival, Market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money Use Trailing Stop To Protect Looted Money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order Block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target it will update after the Breakouts. support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by Thief_Trader
Buying HK33HKD Oanda On An Up TrendRising demand for HK33HKD over several days on the Daily Time Frame based on the 6EMA. I bought HK33HKD on both my FTMO 10K Challenge Phase One and on my Oanda Main Account. Discount offered by seller at 6EMA on 4H Time Frame. Initial SL set is wide, because I want to give myself more time if I am losing, to decide if I want to exit for a small loss or win instead of having it as a full blown 1R loss. By setting my SL wide initially, my risk per pip becomes significantly smaller. Besides, I am risking about 10% per trade(based on my previous account size). If all is well, I will start trading 50$ SGD per trade next month. All is well = My account size reach 1k SGD(currently sitting on 906$ SGD) and that it is a new month. 0950SGT 20052024 Feeling groggy. Add : Now, instead of analysing the Daily Time Frame, first. I analysis the entry time frame first. Why? Because over the years I realised that i missed out on alot of opportunities that are better than the ones I am waiting for, because I analyse my watch list selections on the Daily Time Frame first. By doing a top down analysis, I miss out on strong trends that are not visible on the Daily Time Frame, because price could be in a range on the Daily, but it has yet to reach the Daily's Major S&R levels. And so, the trend on the entry time frame is tradable, but I missed it because I have already eliminated it during my selection phase. TLDR So, I am doing a bottoms up analysis from now on because I am missing out on trending opportunities on the lower time frame that is not visible on the higher time frame. 0954SGT 20052024
OANDA:HK33HKDLong
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
China Recovery BetFundamentals & Sentiment HK50: - China recovery, based on PMI and GDP QoQ - The latest China Trade Balance printed decently above the previous one (although below consensus) USD: Yesterday's cooling US labor market, based on Initial Jobless Claims increase Technical & Other *Chose HK50 instead of ChinaA50 because of smoother price action; eventually HK turned out to be stronger because of the dividend tax cuts for individuals who bought HK shares. China A50 seems to be more vulnerable to geopolitics, like China tariffs in the US. Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Uptrend Target: June-August highs Risk: 1.2% Entry: Buy Stop
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Long
by Cherry94
🌟📈 Exciting Trading Insights for HK50! 💼💹Get ready for some thrilling opportunities as we dive into the market dynamics of HK50! Let's explore the charts, analyze the trends, and uncover potential pathways for profitable trades. 🚀💰 📈 Higher Timeframe Trend: Zooming out to the higher timeframes (H4 or above), we observe a clear trend in HK50. This sets the stage for exciting possibilities and potential gains. Let's ride the trend! 📈📊 🔍🔄 Double Bottom Formation: In the H1 chart, we anticipate HK50 to form a double bottom pattern, as indicated. This pattern suggests a potential trend reversal and can provide excellent entry opportunities. Keep a close watch! 👀🔄 ⚡️💼 Supply Zone at 16330: Our analysis reveals a small but significant Supply Zone at 16330. Today's breakdown of this level serves as a Launchpad for potential upward movement. Brace yourself for a bullish breakthrough! 🚀💼 🔮📉📈 Forecast Path: Let's map out the potential path for HK50's future movements: 1️⃣ Hit Supply Zone 16330: The first step is for HK50 to reach the Supply Zone at 16330. This level acts as a crucial milestone to watch out for. Prepare for potential price reactions and exciting trading opportunities! 🎯📉 2️⃣ Retest and Lower Low Formation: Following the initial hit, we anticipate a retest above 16150, accompanied by the formation of a lower low. This scenario may exhibit indicators such as MACD divergence, providing insightful signals for traders. Stay sharp! 🔄📉 3️⃣ Fast Move to 16480: Our forecast suggests a rapid upward move to 16480, potentially occurring on Friday afternoon or next Monday. This surge presents an excellent chance to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Get ready for action! ⚡️📈💪 Embrace the excitement, stay informed, and adapt to the evolving market conditions. Remember, thorough analysis and risk management are key to successful trading. Let's make the most of HK50's potential and aim for profitable trades! 💪💼💹 #HK50 #TradingInsights #DoubleBottomFormation #SupplyZone #ForecastPath 🌍💱
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
📈💰 A Day Trading Short setup Opportunity on HK50 💱🔥 Let's Dive into the Key Points! 🔥 Are you ready for an exciting day trading opportunity, Retracement on HK50? 🚀💹 Pay close attention to the following key points: ⬇️ Sell Limit Levels: 🎯 16732 🎯 16758 🎯 16785 📈 Take Profits: TP1: 16680 TP2: 16648 🔑 Key Level - Resistance: 🛡️ 16710 ❌ Stop Loss: 🛑 16785 💡 Trading Insights: Today, we focus on HK50 and potential sell limit levels. Keep an eye on 16732, 16758, and 16785 as they present entry opportunities to capitalize on potential downward movements. To secure profits, consider setting take profit levels at 16680 and 16648. These targets can help you lock in gains as the trade progresses. Watch out for the key level of resistance at 16710, as it may act as a significant barrier to further upward movement. Remember to manage your risk effectively by setting a stop loss at 16785. This will help protect your trading capital and limit potential losses. Embrace the excitement of day trading and always stay vigilant in analyzing the market. Good luck! 💪💹📈 #HK50 #DayTradingOpportunity #SellLimit #TakeProfit #StopLoss 🌍💱
CAPITALCOM:HK50Short
by ICT_Trader_SB
First HK50 Long entry in the year of dragon 2024!😊Quick Money: The Secrets of Successful Online Trading 👋Hey traders, are you looking for a hot tip on HK50 for the first trading day of the year of the Dragon to boost your profits? The HK50 index is showing a strong uptrend in the 4-hour and 8-hour timeframes (D1 is in downtrend), indicating the first day in year of dragon 2024 still keeping a bullish momentum for the Hong Kong stock market. The index has bounced off two key support zones, which are: - Support zone 1: Between 15150 and 15250 points, where the index found buyers on February 9 and 10. - Support zone 2: Between 15470 and 15570 points, where the index reversed its intraday downtrend on February 14. These support zones can be used as potential entry points for swing traders who want to ride the uptrend. The swing trade buy limit levels are marked on the chart below. We also took advantage of the uptrend by executing a long entry for day trade in the morning session of HK50 at 15640 points. Our target profits for this daytrade are: - TP1: 15790, which is the previous high of February 12. - TP2: 15870, which is the upper boundary of the rising channel. Our stop loss for this daytrade is set at 15440 points, which is below the support zone 2 and the lower boundary of the rising channel. This gives us a risk-reward ratio of more than 1, which means we are risking less than we can potentially gain. ⚠️Disclaimer: Trading forex is risky and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur from following our signals. Always do your own research and analysis before placing any trades.
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
1
A Traders’ Playbook – the week that has everythingWe move past a busy week in markets and onto an even busier one, littered with potential landmines for traders to navigate. One key theme which has legs this week are moves in Chinese markets – notably, China went after short sellers with several targeted measures. We also saw a 50bp cut to banks RRR amid reports of an RMB2t package for offshore SOE to buy Chinese equities – that said, with big inflows into mainland funds, the HK50 and CSI 300 managed an unimpressive 4.2% and 2% weekly gain respectively. Judging by price action in the HK50 market players seem unsure about building on the move from 15k, and Fridays inside bar needs to be rectified – I would look to trade a break of 16300 (longs) and 15809 (shorts) While hindsight is a wonderful thing, the equity index to be long on the week was the EU Stoxx 50, which is in beast mode (even when priced in USD). The ECB refraining from pushing back on market pricing has certainly helped, while EU earnings also ramp up. Looking ahead, Thursdays EU CPI could be very important for both the EUR and EU equity, where a weak core CPI print – below 3% - could open the door for the ECB to signal a big change from the collective at the 7 March ECB meeting, although we can gauge an immediate response to the CPI data from ECB members Lane and Centeno, who both speak after the CPI data. US data last week, for the most part, impressed and should result in the FOMC statement being little changed this week. Nuance and positioning will play a key role in the moves in rates, the USD, gold, and equity. FOMC aside, it’s a big week ahead State Side, with a raft of key labour market reads, growth data points, the US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) as well as it being the marquee week of US earnings with Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon reporting. It’s not a shock that longs in NAS100 and US500 have had a collective rethink and thought twice about building on the move into 4900. That said, if we look at the volatility markets there has been no pickup in hedging activity with limited propensity to buy downside puts. In fact, all the talk has been that funds are selling index calls to collect premiums and enhance returns on their underlying equity positions. This is subsequently having a big effect in dampening volatility. Crude and Nat Gas are where the moves are taking place, and certainly, SpotCrude had a flyer gaining over 6% on the week, trading into the Nov range highs and taking out the 200-day MA. US data has been a factor, but geopolitics is also a growing issue, and we watch headlines roll in. The bulls seem to have control for now, so upside risks remain – a break higher could also become problematic for future headline inflation, although we’re not at levels too concerning yet. All in, we see a new week littered with key event risks – economic data flow, central bank meetings and corporate earnings. It pays to be aware of the calendar, whether one is day trading and navigating these potential vol events through the day. Or holding positions but not in front of the screens. Consider if the event holds the potential for outsized moves, where the skew of risk resides, and what the means for the stop placement and position sizing. It’s the week that has it all – good luck. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate this week: • End-of-month portfolio flows – Investment bank flow models suggest USD selling to play out to rebalance portfolios, with some sizeable selling in Japanese equities to reweight. • Aus Q4 CPI (31 Jan – 11:30 AEDT) – Q4 CPI poses an obvious risk to AUD and AUS200 exposures. The market looks for headline Q4 CPI to print 0.8% QoQ / 4.3% YoY (from 5.4%), with the trimmed mean measure also expected to fall to 4.3% YoY. Importantly, the RBA had forecast 4.5% for Dec CPI (on both metrics), so the further below that the more dovish the reaction in the AUD. As it stands, Aussie interest rate futures see no chance at the Feb RBA meeting, with a 1-in-4 chance of a 25bp cut in the May meeting. Given such sanguine pricing, we’d need to see a 3-handle on CPI YoY to bring a cut onto the table near-term and promote a big move in the AUD. • China Manufacturing and Services PMI (31 Jan – 12:30 AEDT) – the market eyes the manufacturing index at 49.2 (from 49.0) and the services index at 50.6 (50.4) – after some big stimulus last week CN/HK equity index longs will be keenly hoping for the data flow to show signs of improvement, although it’s the property space that is of most interest. • FOMC meeting (1 Feb 06:00 AEDT) & Chair Powell presser (06:30 AEDT) – it will certainly be hard to match the strong dovish reaction in the Dec FOMC meeting and after the strong Q4 GDP print, and consumption the Fed will be in no mood to declare victory. With the Fed expected to lose its tightening bias, the FOMC statement should read neutral. There will also be a large focus on the timeline for tapering the pace of QT (or balance sheet reduction), notably with Jay Powell’s likely to be heavily probed on this in his press conference – all up, while positioning is always a factor, I see two-way risks for the USD and equity. See our preview here - pepperstone.com • Sweden’s Riksbank meeting – the Riksbank will leave rates at 4% but should open the door to cuts, with the swaps market pricing the first cut in May. Preference for USDSEK upside, adding on a closing break of 10.5000. • BoE meeting (1 Feb – 23:00 AEDT) – the GBP has found support from resilient UK data flow, with GBPUSD tracking a clean 1.2800 – 1.2600 range. The market will be expecting the bank to retain a hawkish lean and will be looking for changes in the vote split to a 8-1 or even 9-0 vote to hold rates. With the market pricing the first 25bp cut at the May BoE meeting at 50%, and the first cut fully priced in June, I see a two-way risk to the GBP at this meeting. See our preview here - pepperstone.com • US nonfarm payrolls (3 Feb – 00:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is that we see 180k jobs created (the economist range of estimates is set between 285k to 120k), with the unemployment rate expected to tick higher to 3.8%. I think the USD reaction will be more closely linked to the outcome of the U/E rate than net job creation. • EU CPI (1 Feb) – The CPI print could be pivotal to the ECB and could set the stage for a more dovish narrative from the bank. The market sees headline CPI falling to 2.7% (from 2.9%) and core CPI to 3.2% (3.4%). Chief economist Lane speaks 90 minutes after, so we could get an immediate reaction to the data from one of the ECB’s most influential members. The EU CPI print poses big EUR risk given the implication for ECB rate expectations, so consider EUR exposures over the news. • US Treasury financing estimate (29 Jan) and Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA - 31 Jan) – the QRA was the trigger for lasting trending conditions in price in both August and November and the implications this time around could be significant. That said, I am leaning towards the idea that the market will not get a surprise this time around, but with T-bills still expected to play a big role in govt funding in the weeks ahead there will be further increased scrutiny on the level of RRP balances and ultimately the funding markets (SOFR-Fed funds). See our preview here - pepperstone.com US earnings in the week ahead – As it stands, we’ve seen 25% of S&P500 companies report, 78% have beaten expectations on EPS (by an average of 6%) and 53% have beaten on sales. Companies have reported 1.6% aggregate EPS decline, and 3.7% sales growth. In the week ahead we get earnings from just over 40% of the S&P500 market cap, including 4 of the illustrious MAG7 names – as a highlight I expect good interest in: Tuesday - UPS, Microsoft (implied move -/+ on the day of reporting 4.3%), Alphabet (-/+ 5%) Wednesday - Boeing (-/+ 3.8%), Mastercard (-/+ 2.9%), QUALCOMM (-/+ 5.6%) Thursday - Apple (-/+ 3.2%), Meta (-/+ 6.5%), Amazon (-/+ 6.2%) Friday - Chevron (-/+ 2.3%), and Exxon (-/+ 2.2%). Other US data points worth considering: US – Consumer confidence (31 Jan 02:00 AEDT), JOLTS jobs openings (31 Jan 02:00 AEDT), Employment Cost Index (1 Feb 01:00 AEDT), ISM manufacturing (2 Feb 02:00 AEDT). In LATAM FX: The BCCh (Chile) meet on Wednesday and are expected to ease by 100bp to 7.25%, although there is a chance they go 75bp - USDCLP is seeing positive momentum and I favour it higher near-term but have limited conviction. The Brazilian CB go on the same day and should cut the selic rate by 50bp to 11.25% Columbia also meet on Wednesday, and we see a 50bp cut to 12.50%.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
A beginner's analysis in HK50 Short TermTraders may consider trading the HK50 (Hang Seng Index) in the long (buy) direction for several reasons: Bullish Market Sentiment: If there is a prevailing bullish sentiment in the global or regional economy, it can positively impact the HK50. A long position aligns with the expectation that the index will rise, potentially resulting in profits. Strong Fundamentals: A trader may observe strong economic indicators, robust corporate earnings, or favorable government policies in Hong Kong, which can support a long trade as these factors are likely to drive the index upward. Diversification: Incorporating the HK50 into a diversified investment portfolio can provide exposure to a different market and currency, reducing risk through diversification. Technical Analysis Signals: Traders may use technical analysis to identify patterns, support levels, or other indicators that suggest the index is likely to move higher, providing a basis for long trades. Global Events: Positive outcomes in international events or trade agreements can benefit the Hong Kong market and may encourage traders to take long positions. Risk Management: Before trading long, traders should set stop-loss orders and risk management strategies to limit potential losses. A well-defined risk management plan is crucial in any trade. Research and Analysis: It's essential to conduct thorough research and analysis, taking into account various factors, before entering a long trade. This includes monitoring news, earnings reports, and geopolitical events. Traders should be cautious and consider market conditions, personal risk tolerance, and their own analysis when deciding whether to trade the HK50 or any other financial instrument. Trading in the financial markets carries inherent risks, and decisions should be made with care and diligence.
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by IMODERAT0RI
RBA meeting playbook – a 25bp hike is the call Having been on hold since June the RBA should hike by 25bp to get the cash rate to 4.35%. We see a 60% chance of a hike priced into interest rate futures, with the market having a high conviction that if they don’t hike next week then they will almost certainly in December. 21 of 24 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) are calling for the hike. The doves do have a case for the RBA keeping rates on hold, but the case to hike seems stronger., with Aussie economic data consistently beating expectations since early October. This should culminate in the RBA increasing its inflation forecasts for Dec-23 and June-24 by 25bp, with its trimmed mean CPI estimate likely revised higher by around 50bp. Given Q2 GDP came in 50bp above the RBA’s forecasts we should see its growth measures increase as well. One can argue that leaving rates on hold would risk the bank being seen as getting behind the inflation curve, and we can see market pricing of 5-year inflation expectations rising to 2.81% - approaching the highest levels since 2011. Some have also focused on Treasurer Jim Chalmers recent comments that the Q3 CPI print did not represent a “material” worsening in the inflation outlook, and by leaving rates on hold it could be seen as a sign of reduced central bank independence. The RBA to review the stress on households We can look ahead to the upcoming bank earnings reports with WBC (6 Nov), NAB (9 Nov) and ANZ (13 Nov) and review their asset quality given lending rates have increased so rapidly. In the prior trading updates, there was no clear evidence that borrowers were facing broad difficulties. In fact, projections that total scheduled P&I payments will push to 9.75% of household disposable income in 2024, suggest servicing this debt is still manageable. We also see over 40% of households are ahead on mortgage payments and have enough savings to cushion a further increase. In terms of volumes, APRA’s September lending data showed total gross loans and advances grew 0.7% m/m in September, with household lending growth +0.3% m/m and business growth +1.2% m/m. Credit card volumes increased 1.2%. And with house prices still on the rise, these are factors that will lean the RBA towards a hike. The RBA will be cognisant of the impact a further lift in the cash rate will have on households and businesses – but while some will be negatively impacted and undergo real stress, on the whole borrowers should be able to readily absorb more hikes. Trading the RBA meeting Given market expectations and pricing, should the RBA leave rates on hold but retain a hawkish bias, then we should see the AUDUSD drop 50 pips or so off the bat, with a solid rally likely seen in the AUS200. With the base case being we see a 25bp hike while maintaining a tightening bias, then all things being equal the AUD should find good buyers, with AUDUSD spiking 30-40 pips. AUDNZD has been the most sensitive to interest rate differentials, as we see here in the AUS-NZ 2-year forward rate differentials. If the RBA hike and imply more then AUDNZD should break the recent highs of 1.0940. In fact, on a simple rates model the AUDNZD cross should be trading closer to 1.1050. AUDUSD is more of a risk proxy than a rates play, taking direction from S&P500 futures and the HK50 index, but the setup is looking more compelling for longs. I prefer to play this from a momentum standpoint and wait for the close above 0.6445, for a potential move into 0.6600. EURAUD, AUDCHF and AUDJPY are also risk proxies and have a good relationship with the VIX index. Granted, if the RBA hikes, then we will likely see a pop in the AUD, but after a short period traders will revert to taking its direction from S&P500 futures and cross-asset volatility. Looking at AUD 1-week implied (option) volatility (vol) we see vols are not showing any real signs option market makers are expecting a significant change in the trading conditions next week. That said, given the split pricing for Tuesday, we could see some rapid-fire moves around the announcement and that is a risk traders need to manage.
Long
by Pepperstone
𓃑 Here is a technical analysis update about the Chart HK50The HK50 index has been on a downward trend for the past 7 days, but today we witnessed a significant rebound, marking a potential shift in its trajectory. As a trading professional, I will provide you with a detailed technical analysis update on the HK50 chart. Technically, the index has successfully surpassed the resistance level at 17,138 on the hourly chart. This breakthrough indicates a potential shift in market sentiment and suggests the possibility of further upward movement. The current nearest resistance level stands at 17,409, which will be crucial to monitor in the coming days. To gain a clearer perspective, we need to observe the market for another one to two days. If the HK50 manages to stabilize above the 17,138 level, it could signal a temporary bottoming out or the emergence of a short-term upward trend. Traders should closely monitor the price action during this period and take advantage of potential trading opportunities. In the event that an upward trend materializes, the index will face a significant challenge at the resistance level of 17,925. This level has proven to be a key obstacle in the past and will require careful analysis and strategic decision-making. Additionally, it is worth noting that the Fibonacci 50% retracement level corresponds to 17,590. This level often holds significance in technical analysis and can provide further insights into potential price movements. In conclusion, the recent rebound in the HK50 index after a series of declines and a prolonged holiday period has sparked interest among traders. The technical analysis suggests the possibility of a shift in market sentiment, with potential short-term upward movement. However, further observation and analysis are required to confirm this hypothesis. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly to capitalize on potential trading opportunities.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Long
by ICT_Trader_SB