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The History of Forex Trading: How It All Began Ever wondered how forex trading became the massive, 24/5 global market we know today? Here’s a quick look at its fascinating journey: 1️⃣ The Gold Standard Era (1870s–1930s) Forex trading originated when countries began linking their currencies to gold. This system created fixed exchange rates but collapsed during the Great Depression due to economic instability. 2️⃣ Bretton Woods Agreement (1944–1971) After World War II, nations agreed to peg their currencies to the US Dollar, which was backed by gold. This made the USD the world’s reserve currency and gave rise to modern foreign exchange systems. 3️⃣ Floating Exchange Rates (1971–Present) When the Bretton Woods system ended, currencies began to "float," meaning their values were determined by supply and demand in the market. This shift created today’s forex market, where traders speculate on fluctuating currency prices. 4️⃣ The Rise of Retail Forex (1990s–2000s) The advent of the internet and trading platforms like MetaTrader brought forex to individual traders. What was once reserved for banks and institutions became accessible to anyone with an internet connection. 5️⃣ Today’s $7.5 Trillion Market (2020s) Now, forex is the largest financial market in the world, with $7.5 trillion traded daily. Traders from every corner of the globe participate, using advanced tools and strategies to navigate this dynamic market. Forex has come a long way, and we’re part of its exciting evolution. What do you think the future holds for forex trading? AI tools? Crypto integration? Let me know in the comments!
by Safaric
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
Mid To long term projection of the SPYGiven Donald Trump's recent victory, the market has felt an optimistic boost. This excitement, could be enough to overcome the current economical warnings that have been prevalent in the previous months. It's impossible to know if these excitements will be enough to send the market into a new and strong rally into overextended territories, or if the market will continue to complain about unaffordable housing, and sustenance. The future is always an unknown variable, however random variables do tend to follow their own distributions to a certain degree. It is always possible for exceptions to occur which prompt price action to get excited at already expensive prices. However, it is intelligent to always take a degree of caution when purchasing expensive securities which are still increasing in price. In these scenarios I suggest waiting for price corrections before purchasing and purchase in small amounts as price decreases to be able to purchase more at lower prices aka cost average. Given Trumps popularity, it's possible that people will become optimistic about the near future, however Trump still has a lot of rivals, which will stop at nothing to fulfill their agenda. The president will be faces with many new challenges these coming 4 years. I wish him the best of luck as he writes history once more. May God bless the future of America, its allies and it people. It's time to see the world change once more.
AMEX:SPY
by DarkMessiah777
APT ANALYSIS🚀#APT Analysis : 🔮As we can see in the chart of #APT that there is a formation of "Falling Wedge Pattern". Some time ago the same structure was made and it performed well and this time also the same is happening with a perfect breakout 🔰Current Price:  $8.69 🎯 Target Price:   $13.15 ⚡️What to do ? 👀Keep an eye on #APT price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️ #APT  #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis  #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
[USD/JPY] Decades of relationship: A historyOne of the thing that I love about trading is how we can look at the price history. Since this week the TVC:DXY seems gaining momentum (at least in short term), I just think it would be interesting to see the history of relationship between FX:USDJPY as this pair currently possibly pivoting its trend. This is FX:USDJPY weekly chart, goes back to 2001. Since 2001, there are 2 major eras: the era where JPY is strong & the era where USD is strong. Both eras share similar timespan, a decade (10 years or so). If the history rhyme, we might now seeing the change of an era, possibly towards the JPY era. For next 10 years ? I don't really know as today's market is much more complex than even 3 years ago. Nevertheless, current trend is indeed changing. If we look at the current chart, we can see the MACD divergence happened just before the drop in USD value. It's interesting to see how this setup have happened many times in the past 20 years: 2 peaks, MACD divergence, then USD drop. The drop are varied off course, so interesting to see how this time it will played out. There is a sensible explanation for this though & it's quite simple: FED is cutting rates, while BOJ ends its negative rate regime, hence narrowing yield between JPY & USD, make keeping the JPY in Japan more attractive, or at least less risky. Cherio...
Short
by moressay
Evolution of JPY:How BOJ Policies & Global Events Influence YENUSD/JPY Dynamics: A Historical and Policy-Driven Analysis of the Bank of Japan's Impact Historical Context and Market Reactions The COVID-19 pandemic led to some of the most extreme market reactions in recent history. During this period, global bond yields spiked in a highly risk-off environment, defying expectations that they would fall as investors sought safe havens. This prompted the Federal Reserve to implement unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE), including daily purchases of $300 billion in bonds. The market chaos highlighted the extent of leverage in supposedly liquid trades. Post-COVID , zero interest rates spurred significant equity market gains until inflation concerns and subsequent rate hikes caused a market correction. It was expected that higher borrowing rates would reduce excessive leverage, but the heavily crowded yen carry trade suggested otherwise. Yen borrowing was extensive and leveraged, flowing into the Japanese market due to minimal currency risk. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) System The Bank of Japan (BOJ), established in 1882, serves as the central bank of Japan. Its primary roles include issuing currency, implementing monetary policy, and maintaining financial stability. The BOJ’s policies and actions significantly impact the yen’s value and the broader Japanese economy. Key Functions of the BOJ: 1. Monetary Policy: The BOJ's primary tool for influencing the economy is its monetary policy. This includes setting interest rates and engaging in open market operations to control the money supply. The BOJ's main policy goals are to achieve price stability and economic growth. 2. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE): Introduced in 2013 under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, QQE aimed to combat deflation and stimulate the economy by purchasing government bonds and other assets, thus increasing the monetary base. 3. Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP): Implemented in 2016, the BOJ introduced a negative interest rate on excess reserves held by financial institutions at the bank. This policy aimed to encourage lending and investment by making it costly for banks to hold excess reserves. 4. Yield Curve Control (YCC): In 2016, the BOJ introduced YCC, targeting a zero percent yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to control the shape of the yield curve and maintain low-interest rates across different maturities. Recent Economic Developments Japanese Yen Strength: - Recently, the yen extended its rally to above 146.50 against the US dollar, its strongest level since March. This was driven by diverging monetary policies between the US Federal Reserve and the BOJ. - Weak US jobs data have increased expectations for further Fed rate cuts, contributing to a weaker dollar. BOJ Rate Hike: - The BOJ raised its interest rate to a 16-year high of 0.25% and signaled the possibility of future increases if economic conditions warrant. This move surprised many economists. Government Intervention: - In July, Japanese authorities spent 5.53 trillion yen to support the currency through intervention. The government expressed concerns that a weaker yen could erode household purchasing power by pushing inflation higher than wage growth. Impact on Financial Markets Japanese Market: - The yen’s strength and BOJ’s policy adjustments have significantly influenced Japanese financial markets. The Nikkei 225 index fell by about 6%, closing the week at 35,909.70. This was one of the worst performances since March 2020 when the index fell below 36,000. Bond yields also dropped, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling below 1%, its lowest level in two months. Global Markets: - Global financial markets, including US markets, have been affected by recession fears and weak economic indicators. The Nasdaq Composite has slid into correction territory, reflecting broader market concerns. Conclusion The interplay between BOJ policies and global economic conditions continues to shape the USD/JPY dynamics. The BOJ’s commitment to maintaining low interest rates and engaging in extensive bond purchases influences the yen's value and the broader Japanese economy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and traders navigating the complex landscape of forex markets. USD/JPY Historical Movements and Influential Events on JPY Historical Movements of the JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by various historical and economic events. Here are some notable periods and their impacts: 1. Introduction and Early Years (1871 - 1882): - The yen was introduced in 1871 as a modern currency, replacing the diverse local currencies issued by feudal regions. - In 1882, the establishment of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) centralized control over the currency, standardizing and stabilizing the yen. 2. Post-WWII Era (1945 - 1971): - After WWII, the yen was pegged to the US dollar at 360 yen per USD under the Bretton Woods system. This fixed rate helped stabilize the Japanese economy during its post-war recovery. - The peg was abandoned in 1971, and the yen became a free-floating currency. This shift led to significant volatility, with the yen reaching a high of 271 per USD in 1973. 3. 1980s Economic Boom and 1990s Asset Bubble Collapse: - During the 1980s, Japan's economy boomed, and the yen appreciated significantly. - The collapse of the asset bubble in the early 1990s led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and deflation, with the BOJ adopting low interest rates to stimulate growth. 4. 2008 Financial Crisis: - The global financial crisis in 2008 saw the yen strengthen as investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened multiple times to prevent excessive appreciation. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - The pandemic caused economic disruptions globally, leading to significant yen volatility. Safe-haven inflows drove the yen's value up, while the BOJ's QE programs aimed to mitigate economic downturns. Key Events Influencing Strong Movements in JPY 1. 1985 Plaza Accord: - An agreement between the G5 nations to depreciate the US dollar relative to the yen and other currencies. This led to a rapid appreciation of the yen, causing significant adjustments in Japan’s economy. 2. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: - The crisis led to a flight to safety, with the yen initially strengthening before the BOJ intervened to stabilize the currency. 3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis: - The yen appreciated as global investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened to prevent excessive yen strength, which could hurt Japan's export-driven economy. 4. 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami: - The natural disaster led to a sharp appreciation of the yen, prompting the BOJ and the Japanese government to intervene in the forex market to stabilize the currency. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - Safe-haven demand for the yen increased during the pandemic, but BOJ’s monetary policies, including extensive bond-buying and low interest rates, aimed to support the economy and stabilize the currency. Conclusion The Japanese yen has a rich history of significant fluctuations driven by both domestic policies and global events. The BOJ’s role in stabilizing the yen through various monetary policy tools has been crucial, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Understanding these historical movements and influential events is key for anyone looking to grasp the dynamics of the JPY in the forex market.
Education
by SroshMayi
LAURUS LAB - HISTORY REPEATHELLO EVERYONE, I am here with a new powerpack price action that we can see in LAURUS LABS. KEY POINTS -- The stock is continuously following the pattern of HIGHER HIGH and HIGHER LOWS Giving a look of RALLY and PULLBACK. -- Now the stock is again looking for RALLY i.e HIGHER HIGH. -- Stock has given a small breakout of downward sloping Trendline. -- stock might give close above 50 EMA (in daily TF) today which will help this stock move upward. -- There seems increasing volume in this stock. Exceptional key point- --Its a fundamentally good company and it has purchased some building and machinery in last quarter, This might helps to give good results in upcoming quarters. Trade Plan -- One can enter at Current Market Price as it is above 50 EMA -- Targets will be 450-465-480 -- Stop Loss will be at 419 (previous swing low) Disclaimer I am not SEBI REGISTERED. consult your financial advisor before any kind of investment. I am not responsible for any kind of your profits and losses. Thank you KARANN DINGRA
NSE:LAURUSLABSLong
by KARANN_DINGRA
How the Halving Will Impact the Bitcoin Market ? Bitcoin Halving: A Comprehensive Overview and Its Impact on the Market Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), reduces the reward for miners who validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain by 50%. This mechanism is designed to control inflation and maintain the finite supply of Bitcoin, which is capped at 21 million coins. Objectives of Halving Controlled Inflation: Halving aims to counteract the inflationary effects of new Bitcoin creation by gradually reducing the issuance rate. This helps maintain the scarcity of the asset and its value over time. Unlike fiat currencies, where central banks can arbitrarily print money, Bitcoin's halving mechanism ensures a predictable and finite supply, preventing uncontrolled inflation. Sustainable Network Growth : By slowing down the mining reward, halving encourages miners to operate more efficiently and focus on long-term network security rather than solely pursuing short-term profits. This shift incentivizes miners to invest in reliable hardware and infrastructure, ensuring the stability and resilience of the Bitcoin network. BraveNewCoin Liquid index Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Price Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with significant price increases. This can be attributed to several factors: Supply Reduction: As the mining reward decreases, the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market slows down. This reduced supply, coupled with consistent demand, can lead to price appreciation. For instance, after the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price surged by over 200% within a year. Market Anticipation: Investors often anticipate the positive impact of halving on price and start buying Bitcoin in advance of the event, driving up demand and price. This phenomenon is evident in the price movements leading up to each halving event. Psychological Effect: Halving serves as a milestone in Bitcoin's roadmap, reinforcing its scarcity and long-term potential, attracting more investors and boosting market sentiment. The halving event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's finite supply and its potential as a store of value. The Upcoming Halving in April 2024 The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on April 19, 2024, at block height 840,000. This event is highly anticipated by the cryptocurrency community, and many analysts and experts are predicting a substantial price increase following the halving. Price Predictions: While price predictions are inherently uncertain, some analysts have made projections based on historical trends and market sentiment: Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024 Pantera Capital: Over $147,000 in 2025 Bernstein: Potential rally in mining company stocks Potential Correction: While many anticipate a price surge, some analysts caution against excessive optimism and acknowledge the possibility of a temporary price correction following the halving: JPMorgan: Price could drop to $42,000 Implications for Miners With the reduced mining reward, miners need to adapt their operations to remain profitable. This may involve: Optimizing Mining Efficiency: Miners will need to upgrade their hardware or switch to more energy-efficient mining pools to reduce operational costs. This could lead to consolidation in the mining industry, as less efficient miners may be forced to exit the market. Focusing on Transaction Fees: As the block reward decreases, transaction fees will become a more significant source of income for miners. This may encourage miners to support initiatives that increase network usage and transaction volume. Diversifying Revenue Streams: Miners may explore alternative revenue streams, such as offering mining services or developing other blockchain-related products. This diversification could help miners adapt to the changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency landscape. Conclusion Bitcoin halving is a crucial event that shapes the cryptocurrency landscape. While it has historically led to price appreciation, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The upcoming halving in April 2024 is expected to be a significant turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Additional Notes: The halving process is embedded in Bitcoin's code and is an automated mechanism, not influenced by any individual or organization. This decentralized nature ensures the integrity and predictability of the halving process. Halving events occur at predetermined intervals and are not subject to any changes or delays. This fixed schedule provides miners and investors with clear expectations and allows for informed decision-making. The halving mechanism is designed to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of Bitcoin by maintaining its finite supply and aligning incentives for miners. This carefully crafted design contributes to Bitcoin's resilience and potential as a long-term asset.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
Will Bitcoin Make History?This post is more of documentation of the historical moment that the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin has experienced today with the passing of Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC. It was a long awaited event and it has finally happened. But what other major events are happening in the chart right now that also might be historical? Well for one, we can see that BTC has retraced 61% of the way from its low around $15.5K to its all-time-high of $69k. The momentum Bitcoin has seen in the last 12 plus months has been fantastic from a bullish standpoint, but traditional technical analysis - based on Fibonacci - signals that the price of Bitcoin is officially in deep retracement levels, which makes longing the asset at this particular moment very high risk from a trader's perspective. Keep in mind that we are also a few months away from the Bitcoin Halving event as well, which historically has signaled the optimum buying window for the cryptocurrency. If BTC can maintain its support within the year-long rising channel (bearish), there is no reason to assume that an end to the trend is in site. On the contrary, if support begins to breakdown, there are plenty technical reasons for a correction in price to occur, that could send the price back to levels witnessed during the summer. In the meantime, congrats Bitcoin! Perhaps its moment on the world stage as a legit and respected asset class has finally arrived.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TradeVibez
BITCOIN can rally to $170K if it repeats 2018-21 historyHere we looked back at the bars pattern from 2018 to the beginning of 2021 and replicated it at April 2022 (the BLUE pattern). We can see a clear similarity in the bars' pattern from April 2022 to January 2023 which makes us believe that the price will repeat history. We are presently in a Concentration Zone where the price is predicted to BREAKOUT bearish at the start of February 2023 and rally as low as 8.5k. The price would then come back bullish and rally as high as 170k and hit new ATH. Bitcoin looks bullish in the long run !!! Let me know if you agree! This is an analysis. Not financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by YanakTrading
History of the U.S. told by SPX I wanted to take some time to recount you the tale of the U.S., from the roaring 20s until today. But I wanted to tell you this tell from the perspective of the S&P 500. And so after horrendous hours of research, I think I am ready to tell you this tale, and hopefully stay true to the S&Ps view of things. So here it goes! The Roaring 20s It all started in the 20s. The ROARING 20s. The roaring 20s were marked by stark improvements in social, political and economic modernization. The industrial revolution took off in the US and this created jobs, opportunities and, more importantly, disposable income for families across the US. This was the first time in US history where more families lived in cities than on farms, and thus marked our beginnings of an industrialized century. This was also marked by a lot of social innovation, such as night clubs (well, Speakeasies really) and general outings of people to events, theatres, etc. The Great Depression The roaring 20s came to a grinding halt in the 1930s with the onset of the great depression. The great depression was a complex result of an over-inflated stock market, changes to governmental policies, bank failures and a general over-inflation of company and share prices. Recovery Interlude Between 1932 and 1936, the US began a slow recovery from the depression. However, the US was thrown back into a recession in 1936, with the stock market seeing a 316% increase over 1676 days. This was abruptly halted at the end of 1936, beginning of 1937 when the US experienced yet another recession, that lasted until 1939. However, by 1939, the real GDP in the US was well above its pre-depression levels and, economically, the US had recovered from the depression. Word War 2 After the 1936 US recession, September of 1939 marked the commencement of World War 2 for the US. This lasted until September of 1945. While, for the most part, it looks like the US stock market stagnated through most of the war, interestingly the DOW increased 10% on the first day of trading after Hitler invaded Poland in 1939. Following the attack on Pearl Harbour, the market fell around 2.9% but regained those losses in one month. All in all, from the start of WWII to the end, the market saw an increase of 50%, so not really terrible and not really stagnation! The Start of the Never Ending Bull Run While there was an initial rally and correction following the termination of WW2, this period is traditionally marked as the start of the decades long bull run that we continue to be in today. There was a “baby dip” in June of 1950, on the commencement of the Korean War, where the S&P fell roughly 10%. But this was quickly bought back up and continued to run up: The Correction of 1953: After the first few years of the commencement of the decade long bull run, the market experienced its, arguably, first minor “correction” that wasn’t the result of any major catastrophes, just simply a cumulative effect of various small things. From Jan 1953 till about September of 1953, the S&P fell roughly 15%, bringing it back into its expected time series range for the time: This was the result of such things as: a) Rising inflation that lead to the Federal Reserving hiking interest rates (sound familiar?) b) Economic adjustment growing pains: Shifting from wartime to peacetime economics causes some volatility and adjustments at the societal and market level. c) Corporate earnings: With the result of war ending, some corporations which profited on the war efforts, started to fall short on earnings. This contributed to lack-luster earnings at the time. d) Over-inflated valuations: I mean, has anything changed? All this dip buying lead to over-valuation in stocks. Back on Track, 1950s style: After September 1953, the bottom was in and the S&P climbed up to approximately 119% over the course of 1065 days. This is one of the most dramatic examples of economic expansion. Economic expansion marked the most part of the 1950s, with declining unemployment, inflation that was more under control as a result of the interest rate hikes in the early 1950s, and increasing disposable income by households. In addition to this, there was great advancements in technology, with computers and processors being implemented in corporate and government contexts, and companies like IBM continually making advancements in this industry. Various Other Corrections: Throughout the 1950s up until 1969, there were various corrections, all resulting from the general same uncertainties and concerns, i.e. Inflation, employment, Federal Reserve and other governmental policies and geopolitical conflict. Its interesting that the same concerns that plagued the market in the 50s, 60s and 70s are still the ones affecting us today. The “Lost Decade” The Lost Decade started around the beginning of the 1970s, after a sustained bear market in 1969 (which lead to just over a 35% decline in the US stock market) and lasting till the start of 1980. It was called the lost decade because the US stock market spent a decade in stagnation. The result of this was mainly due to high inflation (when you hear people say stagflation, it generally is referencing a similar situation to this). This lead to a whole load of other problems such as: a) Increasing interest rates to combat inflation b) Increasing Conflict during the Cold War. c) Negative real returns (investors were not seeing any returns and overally negative returns on their investments over the course of a decade!), this lead to a lack of confidence and thus, in some cases, exoduses from the market. Along Came the 80s Then came the 80s, complete with leg warmers, aerobic classes, health consciousness, “the Millennial children” and massive technological advancements. At the start of the 80s, the market rallied about 50% in roughly 273 days: More Uncertainty and Pandemics Despite the strong start of the 80s, this was soon to be halted at the start of 1981. Nineteen-eighty-one was the onset of another correction. By 1981, the federal reserve had not let up. The US people were continually bombarded by persistently high interest rates. Additionally, the US economy was already in a recession at the beginning of 1981. There was also ongoing concerns around this time with the HIV pandemic; however, this isn’t theorized to have been a major influencing factor in this correction as the general attitude of Government and institutions was apathy in this regard (as, by this time, it was known to only be a concern for Haitian immigrants, IV drug users and gay men *eye roll*). It wasn’t until 1984, when this presented more of a public concern once contaminated blood supplies lead to a massive epidemic in the US and Canada. But, post 1981, as far s the market was concerned, smooth sailing, with the S&P climbing almost 200% in 1827 days (or approximately 5 years), marking an, on average, 40% a year increase. The Flash Crash of 1987 (AKA, Black Monday): October 19th, 1987 was marked by a sudden and severe decline in stock prices. The losses sustained on this crash were estimated at 1.71 trillion US dollars, as the market fell more than 20% in a single day. This was termed "Black Monday" (not to be confused with the awesome song Blue Monday by New Order.). The photo of the papers in the air really got me. I had to laugh because I can relate. On really bad days I have been known to throw things in the air and be like "I'm done. I'M DONE! The cause of this was thought to be the introduction of algorithmic trading model behaviour which then triggered mass investor panic, though, a tumble of this degree is likely to be multifaceted and never truly fully understood. Various tech stocks during Black Monday, IBM fell over 20%, AMD over 30%, MSFT over 29% and AAPL over around 29%. This was short lived however, and from then on was marked by the ever so famous dotcom bubble. The Dotcom Bubble: After black Monday, which also brought the S&P back into its anticipated time series range, the S&P return to normal and stable growth, reflecting the general economic conditions at the time. However, this was accelerated at the start of 1995 with the advent and rapid uptake of the world wide web. From the start of 1995 till about March of 2000, the S&P saw exponential growth, rising approximately 250% over 1885 days or 5 years (average return of 50% a year). This was marked by rapid technological advancements, euphoria and speculation and an excessive use of IPOs (despite most of them lacking profitability). While Euphoria and speculation sustained the market for an admirably long time, it came crashing down in the early 2000s when the lack of profitability of these IPO tech companies came to light (I am looking at you pets.com). However, in 2000, as these enterprises slowly began to liquidate and go defunct, the market, too, made a dramatic correction of 50%, back to its expected range: This lasted a total of 944 days, or about 2 years. The Housing Bubble And as the pendulum swings, we transition from one bubble to the next. Immediately following the dotcom correction, we then entered the housing bubble of the YTK era, where the market had a steady rise of over 100% in a span of 1826, or 5 years: The housing bubble wasn’t solely to credit for this growth, as the US had also declared war on Iraq. As we saw from the events of WW2, war tends to be looked at positively by the market (*another eye roll*). This does economically make sense though, war = business and business = profits. For war to happen, we need industries to produce. If we look at LMT (a huge military and defence sector) during the period of 2003 until 2008, it outpaced the S&P by almost 100%!! And RTX (a huge supplier of US defence) outpaced both LMT and the S&P, growing over 200% in this time: But unfortunately this, too, had to end. And we all know how it ended. The 2008 Crash I won’t dwell on this, it’s the most stated, studied and discussed event in market history, so there really is no need to dwell. But to summarize, the increase in subprime mortgage lending lead to increasing defaults. Increasing defaults on banks that, themselves, were over-leveraged, lead to bank closures, which lead to a whole domino effect with the end result being an over 55% decline in the US stock market over 518 days, or roughly 2 years. From there, we have since resumed the centuries long bull market and haven’t looked back. The brief COVID-19 Crash in 2020 actually led to a fairly decent correction back to the anticipated range of the S&P (a regression to the mean), but this was short lived: Despite tumbling over 35% in a matter of days, this was simply bought right back up and climbed 123% in a matter of 701 days: The results of this were likely attributed to the use of quantitative easing and the federal government monetary stimulus policies creating more money to inject into the market. The 2022 Bear Market: And finally, the 2022 bear market. I was reluctant to title it as such because some operate on the assumption that the bear market is still a thing, others operate on the assumption that it ended in 2023. If we look at the S&P currently, this is where we stand: If we are back in bull market territory and continue up (despite being outside of the time series mean), the 2022 bear market will be among the first bear markets in SPX history to not have undergone a regression to the mean (from a quadratic standpoint). But let’s look at it from a log-linear standpoint: The bear market of 2022 failed to re-test the mean. So for us to continue up towards the 2 standard deviation mark on the log-linear scale, it will mark a historic event really, a bear market that accomplished, well, nothing haha. Concluding remarks: And that, my friends, is the history, AND FUTURE, of the US, as told by the S&P. I hope you took something away from this, but importantly, my purpose of sharing this history with you is so you can see how, regardless of the time, the market is always concerned about the same things. That is: Interest rates, Inflation, Geopolitics and economic policies, War; and Corporate earnings. Its as true as time, nothing else matters to the market than the numbers. Perhaps its sad, perhaps its realistic, perhaps its reality, but it truly seems to be the only thing that has mattered historically and probably the key thing you should take away from this. Another final note, is that all of our corrections have lead to a "regression to the mean", both on the loglinear scale and on the quadratic scale. So it is interesting to see that we have not "regressed to the mean" with our 2022 bear market. Anyway, thank you for reading this lengthy post! Leave your comments, questions and critiques below. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPX
by Steversteves
16
$25,000 Is The Price To HOLD: New Video Up!In a bull market, this blue horizontal line represents the lowest closing price between the point after all 6 MA's moved below the point of control and the point where all 6 MA's were no longer below the point of control. This pattern has happened 3 other times in bitcoins history (2011, 2012, 2020, and now in 2023) but has not happened every cycle. Nevertheless, when this price line is established, the price has never again closed below the line. Will we brake the pattern this cycle? Or will the pattern continue. What are your thoughts?
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TheCryptoWeatherChannel
The History of the Stock Market: Path of Orwellian ControlThe History of Modern Humanity is flawed. A lie is a better word. Our history starts with the S&P being formed in 1870. We then have the Invention of the Telephone and the lightbulb a few years later... (What a Coincidence) We see the impossible to construct Worlds Fairs Buildings of 1883 knocked down and our history rewritten. The Market has been turned into a weapon. In fact it has always been a weapon. "New inventions every few years when the time is right" to keep the market on its feet and the people under control.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelBsul
Statistically looking at BTC history. Much love!Hey everyone, We are all going through some unfortunate times with plenty to talk about. That being said, I hope everyone is safe and enjoying themselves. Needless to say, I've noticed a specific trend. When I started to look at the weekly chart, I zoomed out in an attempt to validate my current trade. When I did that, I ended up going through a rabbit hole full of data. I flirted with taking a look at the dumpiest places ever, almost like my search for every apartment in LA. Needless to say, I saw two statistics that coincide with one another. If you take a look at the monthly chart, there are two statistics that stand out the most - January 12 '15, and December 10 '18. At those infliction points, we were completely oversold. It took approximately 1,428 days to go into the oversold department starting Jan 12 '15. If we use the same calculation, things seem to start processing into existence, starting from December 10 '18. Fast forward to today, we can see that another 1,428 days land on Nov 7 '22. I believe that the bear market will end and that point. No one times the market. Take a break and hug the people you love. Happy trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoArom
History :Tradingview, Look first / Then leap.TradingView has become a top platform in the quick-paced world of financial trading, offering traders and investors all over the world a robust community and a set of sophisticated tools. TradingView has made great leaps from its modest origins to its current position as a major player in the sector, hitting impressive milestones and overcoming obstacles along the way. The Early Days of TradingView TradingView was founded in 2011 by Stan Bokov, Denis Globa, and Constantin Ivanov. The founders previously created MultiCharts, a desktop software for professional traders. They wanted to create a web-based version of MultiCharts that would be accessible to anyone with an internet connection. They also wanted to add social features that would enable users to interact with each other and learn from each other’s trading strategies. In the above image we can see one of our wizards. TimWest in the early days when he had only 196 followers. Where as now he has a massive following of 56,000 and counting. In September 2011, TradingView released its beta version, which quickly garnered popularity among traders and investors. TradingView participated in the Chicago TechStars accelerator program in 2013 and won seed funding from a number of investors. In addition, the business increased the size of its staff and enhanced the platform's markets and capabilities. In 2018, TradingView completed a $37 million Series B round led by Insight Partners, a prominent venture capital firm that specializes in fintech. The funding helped TradingView scale its operations and expand its global reach. In 2019, TradingView acquired TradeIt, a platform that enables users to link their brokerage accounts and trade from any app or website. The acquisition enhanced TradingView’s trading functionality and user experience. Key Partnerships and Acquisitions TradingView has partnered with several leading brokers and exchanges to provide its users with direct access to trading and data. Some of these partners include OANDA, FXCM, CQG, TradeStation, Binance, and many more. Achievements and Milestones Since its beginning, TradingView has experienced phenomenal development and success. More than 180 countries use the platform each month, with more than 50 million active users. It is one of the top 130 websites worldwide. It has also received numerous accolades and awards. TradingView has also launched several innovative products and features that have improved its platform and service. Some of these include: Streams : A product that allows users to watch live market analysis, ideas, and charts in real-time along with others. Timelines : A feature that maps the history of public companies to their share price. Pine Script : A programming language that enables users to create custom indicators and strategies on TradingView. Paper Trading: A feature that allows users to practice trading with virtual money without risking real funds. Wizard Program "An initiative that celebrates the traders & investors who consistently share high-quality content including written ideas" TradingView has come a long way since its inception, and currently stands at a valuation of 3 billion USD, transforming the way traders approach the financial markets. Through its powerful charting tools, technical analysis capabilities, and an active community of millions of users, the platform continues to empower individuals to make informed trading decisions. TradingView has established itself as a major force in the market thanks to significant alliances, a long list of successes, and a dedication to user-centric design. As the platform develops and changes to reflect the shifting
FX:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
4
Trading Through Time: From Stocks to CryptocurrenciesOnce upon a time, within the bustling boulevards of Amsterdam amid the 17th century, a progressive thought was born. Dealers assembled in coffeehouses and marketplaces, trading offers of the Dutch East India Company. This was the birth of stock exchanging as we know it nowadays. Word of this modern frame of venture spread like rapidly spreading fire, and before long stock markets started to rise in other European cities. London, Paris, and other budgetary centers built up their possess trades, where people seem purchase and offer offers in different companies. These stock markets given a centralized stage for exchanging, enabling investors to take an interest within the development of businesses and share in their benefits. As time went on, stock trades kept on advance. Within the bustling lanes of Modern York City, the famous Unused York Stock Trade (NYSE) was established in 1792. It rapidly got to be a image of America's financial control and a center for dealers from around the world. Companies looked for to be recorded on the NYSE, because it advertised expanded perceivability and get to to capital. With the coming of the computerized age, the world of stock exchanging experienced a significant change. Conventional open objection frameworks were supplanted by electronic trading stages. Exchanges that once depended on yells and hand signals might presently be executed at lightning speed with the tap of a button. This democratized stock exchanging, permitting people to exchange from the consolation of their homes through online brokerages. In parallel to these advancements, a modern frame of money risen from the profundities of the web. In 2009, an puzzling figure or bunch known as Satoshi Nakamoto presented Bitcoin, the world's to begin with cryptocurrency. Based on progressive blockchain innovation, Bitcoin pointed to make a decentralized advanced money free from the control of central banks. Bitcoin's beginning checked the starting of the cryptocurrency transformation. Its unique properties, counting security, immutability, and namelessness, pulled in tech-savvy people and early adopters. As the esteem of Bitcoin taken off, individuals begun to realize the potential of cryptocurrencies past a simple advanced money. Propelled by Bitcoin's victory, other cryptocurrencies started to grow like wildflowers in a computerized garden. Ethereum, Swell, Litecoin, and endless others entered the scene, each advertising special highlights and utilize cases. The world of cryptocurrency exchanging took off, with specialized trades giving stages for buying, offering, and exchanging these advanced resources. To keep pace with the advancing scene, innovative headways played a imperative part. Calculations and high-frequency exchanging calculations revolutionized the speed and effectiveness of stock exchanging, whereas decentralized trades and shrewd contracts brought robotization and believe to the domain of cryptocurrency exchanging. The development of stock exchanging and cryptocurrencies has not been without its challenges. Advertise instability, administrative concerns, and security dangers have postured deterrents along the way. Be that as it may, the charm of potential benefits and the crave to take an interest within the worldwide economy proceed to drive people and educate to lock in in these markets. Nowadays, stock exchanging and cryptocurrency exchanging have ended up fundamentally parts of the worldwide financial ecosystem. They offer opportunities for speculation, riches creation, and budgetary consideration. As innovation proceeds to progress and modern advancements develop, the world of exchanging stands balanced for assist change, interfacing people, businesses, and economies in ways incredible within the early days of bargaining and stock trades. And in this way, the story of exchanging in stocks and cryptocurrencies proceeds to unfurl, a story of advancement, theory, and the interest of financial thriving in a quickly changing world. Thank you for reading my masterpiece haha, please consider following me or boosting this post for motivation to make more content like this :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by LuminoAlgo
History: 17th Century to 21st Century: Retail Investors.Retail trading is the practice of individual investors using their own funds and accounts to purchase and sell financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and derivatives. Retail traders are frequently referred to as DIY investors or self-directed investors. They are different from institutional traders, who work for major institutions like banks, hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds and execute trades on their behalf. The development of stock markets in the 17th and 18th centuries can be linked to the history of retail trading. In Amsterdam, the first stock exchange opened its doors in 1602, where Dutch East India Company shares were traded. At first, the market was only open to wealthy merchants and nobles since they had access to brokers and agents who served as middlemen between buyers and sellers. However, more people from various socioeconomic groups and backgrounds started to participate in the trading activity as the market expanded and became more accessible. Actual ledger from the first public IPO, The VOC charter, the organization's founding document from March 20, 1602, had made mention of the IPO. Article 10 said that "all the inhabitants of these lands may purchase shares in this Company." There was no minimum or maximum investment amount; subscribers could choose their own amount. Posters announcing the IPO would be placed up, according to the article that followed. The South Sea Bubble in 1720, when a speculative frenzy over the shares of the South Sea Company drew thousands of investors from all walks of life, was one of the earliest instances of retail trading. Many people purchased the shares in the hopes of becoming rich by taking out loans or selling their belongings. However, the company's failure to keep its promises caused the share price to crash, and the bubble to burst. Many small-scale retailers lost their savings and filed for bankruptcy. The Wall Street Crash of 1929, which signaled the end of the Roaring Twenties and the start of the Great Depression, is another significant incident in the history of retail trading. When investors recognized the stock market was inflated and unsustainable, a wave of panic selling rushed through the New York Stock Exchange, setting off the crash. Many retail investors who had used borrowed funds to buy stocks on margin were unable to fulfill margin calls and were forced to liquidate their investments at a loss. Millions of people worldwide were impacted by the crash, which destroyed billions of dollars' worth of wealth. The environment of retail trading has changed as a result of technological and regulatory advancement in the 20th and 21st centuries. Retail traders now have more affordable and convenient ways to enter the markets and carry out their trades thanks to the development of electronic trading platforms, online brokers, discount brokers, and robo-advisors. The number of alternatives and techniques available to individual traders has increased with the advent of new financial instruments including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, futures, contracts for difference (CFDs), and cryptocurrencies. To safeguard retail traders from fraud, manipulation, and abuse by market participants, laws and regulations like the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Investment Company Act of 1940, the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, and the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 were passed. Some of the most influential figures in retail trading history include: - Jesse Livermore: Known as the "Great Bear of Wall Street" and the "Boy Plunger," Livermore was a renowned trader who amassed and forfeited a number of fortunes over his career. He was renowned for his insightful reading of market psychology and trends as well as his audacious bets against the market. He participated in both the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Panic of 1907, making millions by shorting stocks during each event. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a famous trading book he also penned, is still read by many traders today. -The "father of value investing," Benjamin Graham : , was a pioneer in fundamental analysis and security selection. Based on an analysis of an undervalued stock's intrinsic value, earnings potential, and margin of safety, he devised a methodology. In addition, he coached a number of great investors, including Warren Buffett, who is recognized as one of his most well-known pupils. He also taught at Columbia Business School. - George Soros: One of the most successful hedge fund managers and currency speculators in history. Soros is known as "the man who broke the Bank of England." His prediction that the British pound would have to devalue or leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992 is what made him most famous. From this trade, he allegedly generated over $1 billion in profit while also sparking a financial crisis in Britain. - Peter Lynch: Considered to be one of the best mutual fund managers of all time, Lynch oversaw the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990, with an average annual return of 29%. He adhered to the straightforward maxim, "Invest in what you know," which meant that he sought out businesses that he was familiar with and that had a promising future. A number of his best-selling books on investing, including "One Up on Wall Street" and "Beating the Street," were also written by him. - Kathy Lien: Lien, a former chief strategist at FXCM and BK Asset Management, is regarded as one of the world's foremost authorities on currency trading. She frequently contributes commentary to media sites like Reuters, CNBC, and Bloomberg. She has authored a number of books on forex trading, including "Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market" and "The Little Book of Currency Trading". Any more. In closing, Retail trading has evolved from a privilege reserved for the wealthy to a widely accessible activity for individuals from all walks of life. From the early days of stock markets to the modern era of electronic trading platforms, technology and regulation have played a pivotal role in shaping the landscape of retail trading. Influential figures like Jesse Livermore, Benjamin Graham, George Soros, Peter Lynch, and Kathy Lien have left their mark on the industry, each with their unique approaches and contributions. While retail trading presents opportunities for individuals to grow their wealth, it is essential to recognize the risks involved. The lessons learned from past episodes, such as the South Sea Bubble and the Wall Street Crash, remind us of the importance of informed decision-making and prudent investing. As we look towards the future, it is likely that the landscape of retail trading will continue to evolve, driven by advancements in technology, regulatory developments, and emerging financial instruments. However, the core principles of risk management, knowledge, and adaptability will remain crucial for retail traders to navigate the ever-changing markets successfully. In the related ideas you will see my post about the early days of TradingView and also the history of Japanese candlesticks
FX:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
3