Hedge
Bitcoin Cash is the Greatest Bear Trap of All TimeI won't give much preamble about Bitcoin Cash. You can make your own decision about which side to stand on with the information that is available to you. That being said, as a trader, you should pay attention to price action first, fundamentals second, and politics and rumors literally not even at all.
The reality is, Bitcoin Gold is a scam: twitter.com
The reality is, right now, Segwit 2x is not in much better of a situation regarding their fork being adopted by exchanges.
The reality is, Bitcoin Cash has been a functional hardfork backed, sustained, and supported by some of the biggest players in crypto.
Bitcoin Cash is also going to be hard forking a la' Ethereum Byzantine/Metropolis on November 13 for a code update to fix the Emergency Difficulty Adjustment: www.reddit.com
Fundamentals: check
Bitcoin Cash is in a giant symmetrical triangle after its pump to $850+ in August and its slow slide down ever since. That being said, we have a beautiful formation with bullish consolidation towards the squeeze point as shown by OBV and Willy21. Also of note is WWV evidences that we've had extended periods of distribution, with some of the most violent distribution volume being after the October 17 dump. The October 17 pump was also the second largest accumulation since the August pump, yet, price remains healthy and has stayed with the trendline rather than breaking down like IOTA.
The first projection from a non-manic pump-high in the triangle produces a target that conveniently lines up with the 0.786 fib almost perfectly.
Price action: check
Politics: who cares when you can double your money on the first leg up and you're dealing with something that has a known price-ceiling of $6,200+?
If price breaks out to $360-400 and holds, expect one of the most amazing events in history to occur.
If I am right about what is about to happen, Bitcoin Cash will vortex in a tremendous amount of new users to crypto. Bitcoin Cash will resurrect what the Bitcoin community was in earlier, less bubble-collapsed time periods.
Bitcoin Cash is the biggest bear trap of all time.
What you think can happen and what is actually happening are two completely different things.
Gold to Break Higher - watch these levelsThe chart shows where major support and resistance is, and is there to indicate the trend. On smaller time frames you'll notice that Gold has over the past week firmly stayed at 1275, rather than dipping lower. The fact that this is happening near a turning point in a major downtrend may indicate that this an early signal to get long. If Gold moves above 1300, this would have broken the pattern of 'lower highs' over the last 12 months.
The technical i.e. price action, always drives my core view. But we could support this view with a few factors:
1. Trump has responded to N Korea's aggression with an announcement that almost certainly spells military action
2. With 9 consecutive record high closes on the Dow, and coming off levels of all-time low US equity volatility, investors may be more inclined to rotate into Gold
3. August to September is a seasonally weak time for most equity sectors
Rudimentary Elliott Wave Analysis for GOLD - Long TradeThis is another basic Elliott Impulse Wave pattern applied to a long-term long trade idea for Gold. This analysis is very similar to my Siacoin Elliott Wave idea but applied to a different asset class, so I've linked that idea in case you want to check that out and compare the two. This chart is over a 15+ year period and should be treated as a long-term investment strategy. This idea will remain valid unless price crosses below the $1035 mark, which is the top of wave 1 and will invalidate the entire pattern. If you look closely at the naked chart, and I strongly encourage everyone to do so, you will see that the bottom of wave 4 comes very close to the top of wave 1. During that period, price came down to within $6 - 7 of the top of wave 1, but price did not touch that number. This is very important as often waves come very very close to being invalidated but are not. From that point, price has bounced again ans formed a higher low, suggesting the beginning of wave 5. There are many different ways to make entry and manage risk in this trade, and this time I'll leave that the discretion of the individual. Gold price gapped up about $20 on market open Sunday evening and this is also encouraging, as the market has been recently rangebound. The $1250 mark is very significant, as this is a leverage point for mining corporations where in the COSTS of mining an ounce of gold become profitable, and those corporations begin to mobilize their assets in the pursuit of profits, which has a self-reinforcing effect on the price of gold. Be wary of paper gold schemes and vehicles that involve a lack of physical or legal possession of the underlying asset. Contracts for Difference are derived from the price of the underlying asset but trade in their own markets and are thus subject to their own price movements. Happy Hunting Everyone.
Position before next BreakOut **Dividend**Fundamentally HSBC is confident that their internal investment of process amelioration was a success which wil make the company a lot more efficient with regards to future challanges coming due to the automation revolution.
Investors seem to believe and started buying the stock back. HSBC was always paying a nice dividend and so are they this year.
Conservative investors may wait until trend confirmation a new breakout. More aggressive may buy 1/2 now, TP on the BO. Buy back into 1/2 at BO level and buy another half in the support.
Strategy:
Better than 50/50 chance on capital gain for mid-term
Dividend payment
Potential Options hedges to increase your income on this opportunity
Classic boring but EFFECTIVE trend followingHedging my longterm short EURUSD constantly with short term long trades on EURGBP with quite ptofitable so far.
Now price presents me a new opportunity with nice RRR
Lorbeer Pattern in SupportWaiting for entries to trigger. I am rather short on the EUR on other pairs but treat this as a great hedging opportunity to reduce cost or maximise profit.
Hedge to reduce cost baseEURUSD is trading in an improtant resistance area of Elliott Wave 5 and Bat pattern. The trade does not develop and I saw a change of going long the Euro on EURGBP in order for me to reduce the cost of a potential loosing trade on the EURUSD. SInce the EURUSD is longterm with hgh profit potential and EURGBP is short with small profit potential, I will still make a siginifcant profit on the EURUSD if eventually is will pay out the way I suggested.
Copper: CUUUSD Another weak Dollar play for next 3/4 days' tradeCopper: CUUUSD Another weak dollar play. Ideal is to buy any dip in Tokyo and rely on dollar weakening ahead of Thursday. Then sell it off the parallels above and go flat (which one depends on your own appetite for risk/reward) and wait to see if the upper parallel can be broken (unlikely on first attempt but you never really know) and if/when it is broken go long again as per comment. Maybe it will happen and maybe it won't. But ask yourself this: would YOU really be wanting to hold USD between now and Thursday if you had the choice? Here's the thing: you do have the choice. You can hedge or you can do nothing.
DXY: BITCOIN BTCUSD Potential weekend hedge for a falling DollarDXY: Dollar index and Bitcoin: The Dollar has closed for the weekend on its lows and below critical supports and will get hit again hard on Monday. It should fall a further 1.7% from here over the coming week or two. But there is one potential way to hedge this situation: it depends on Bitcoin breaking above 2460. If it does it should be worth following this weekend. Please see Bitcoin comment for more details
USD BITCOIN: How to hedge against a falling $ this weekendDXY: Dollar Index The Dollar closed on its lows for the weekend and will likely be sold off heavily if not in Tokyo, in London come Monday. it should fall a further 1.7% from here.
But there could still be an opportunity this weekend to hedge - it depends on Bitcoin breaking above 2460. If it does, it should be worth following. Please see Bitcoin comment also.
Need a Hedge on your short EURO?Potential upcoming GartleyPattern with a 20 Pips long hedge potential to reduce your cost base in case you are short on the Euro
VIX Index Futures: VI1! Best way to hedge longs at current levelVIX Index Futures: VI1! - still the best way to hedge longs at current levels. Likely downside is 10% maximum from here and upside is 40% minimum over next 3 months.
EURUSD: A good hedge, and a valid tradeI have a powerful signal here, bought breaking yesterday's high today. I had given up on Euro longs, and sold in disgust, which is a strong 'self-contrarian' signal. Whenever it happens, take heed, and act with haste after the market breaks a previous day high or low, since your exit. If you don't take the trade back, you will probably face one of those times when you exit a trade at the bottom, to then see the trade go your way without you...so, why face that irritating feeling?
Fade yourself, when we're emotional, we're a reflection of the 'herd'. Fascinating huh?
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GO LONG VXX!Accumulating here at a pierce of even # $16. Nice hedge against the longs in the portfolio in the meantime. Upside targets $16.60, $17 and beyond.
AUDUSD Bearish Cypher Pattern Re-entryJust shorted the AUDUSD @.7660, I've been eyeing the Bearish cypher pattern on the daily for a while and was actually short this pair but ended up stopping out for break even after the Fed's rate decision. Luckily I hedged the position against the USDJPY and made profit on that pair. So here we go again, hedging this position again the USDJPY this time! Fundamentally I believe the dollar will gain some strength, and I believe this is a good set up from a technical standpoint as well.
Stops are above HOD (If I'm wrong I don't want to eat into my profits from USDJPY, which I am still short)
Targets are at previous structure, although the .382 retracement on the Cypher is also a viable option
PGRE - Potential Upward channel reversal Short trade from $18PGRE is running within an upward channel. If it gets up-to $18 to its upper Channel line, this could be interesting in the short side. As $18 is a major resistance label as well. We think it can reverse from there & can go all the way down to $15 area.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- February 28, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel reversal & breakout
Entry Target Criteria- short between 18.00 and 18.05
Exit Target Criteria- Momentum ($15.20)
Stop Loss Criteria- $18.40
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
JACK - Support breakdown short from $92.77 JACK looks pretty interesting short setup. It had a huge decline below MA200 & holding this support now. Moneyflow has plummeted. It has huge downward potential if it can break the support label.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- March 2, 2017
Pattern/Why- Support breakdown
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $92.77
Exit Target Criteria- Momentum
Special Note- We would consider $95 April Puts @ $3.60 or $95 Jun Puts @ $6.50
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
TUP - hedge your longs with Feb 55 putsOn January 13th and 17th, Smart money built up almost 5,000 contracts of new open interest in Tupperware Brands Feb 55 puts. Using Friday Jan 13th's cost of $2.40, break even stands at $52.60 -- basically at the recent support confirmed during the last two weeks of December. These Feb 55 puts include earnings and will profit should earnings disappoint or if recent bullish technicals fail to confirm and the stock price resumes it's downtrend from its Oct 2016 highs.
With the stock price recently breaking out of a downtrend and recapturing the 50 day moving average, I am bullish as long as price stays above the 50dma, but watching for a Failed Breakout Reversal to join the Feb 55 puts.
