OcugenOcugen, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and commercializing transformative therapies to treat blindness diseases. Our breakthrough modifier gene therapy platform has the potential to treat multiple retinal diseases with one drug – “one to many”. And our novel biologic product candidate aims to offer better therapy to patients with underserved diseases such as wet age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema and diabetic retinopathy.
I might've marked this up a few weeks ago. However, here is an updated outlook after hearing some positive news from its camp that was released today.
What do you think?
Like, Follow, Agree, Disagree!
Details in photo!
Strike price $12.12
Healthcare
EDIT Genome Editing Long-Term SwingEDIT NASDAQ:EDIT is a genome editing company with treatments being developed for Leber congenital amaurosis**, Usher syndrome, neurological diseases, Sickle cell disease, beta-thalassemia, as well as cancer treatments through NK cells. The leber congenital amaurosis clinical trial is currently the furthest along but still in its earlier stages but has completed dosing all of its patients. The results of that clinical trial will be HUGE. That will set the blueprint for EDIT as a company. The same principles for that EDIT-101 clinical trial are being applied to multiple other medicines and can lay the blueprint for huge medical breakthroughs. ARK believes genome editing is the future of medicine and I agree. This 46% sell off since EDIT’s highs looks to be a strong bounce area. I grabbed a small starter position on Friday last week but will look to add to my position this week and add dips to $50. If we fail $50.48 HVN area I will use that as my stop.
Chart:
EDIT looks to be in a prime bounce zone right now and I will be looking for it to hold the HVN area ($57-$66) for some consolidation. Daily .618 fib retracement line has served as support multiple times and will want that to hold up this week. Need some volume to being accumulating on EDIT and close back over the $58 lvl.
Flag forming in Gold. $2,200 possible within the yearGold has been consolidating and retracting in volume. It looks coiled to break-out past previous resistance. The 50,100, and 200-day moving averages are on the verge of intersecting and hopefully reversing course in a more bullish direction.
Signal to buy should be when shorter-term MA's breakthrough 200-day.
RSI, MACD, and Gold spot prices have been declining in unison. RSI signals it is not overbought and MACD is signaling buy which gives this trade some legs and breathing room.
On the fundamental side, gold is the most resistant to rust and corrosion, making it the most reliable and durable electrical conductor. It is key for computer and satellite technology. If Starlink is going to become a reality, regardless of whether or not it does so under the umbrella of Tesla or by IPO'ing, they will need a lot of gold to make those satellites low maintenance.
Gold is also essential in the production of green technology and it is essential for healthcare and our digital world.
I expect spot prices of $2,200 within the year and at least $2,500 by 2022.
$CLOV Stick to the PlanTrue longs are staying patient, even with the volatile week we've experienced thus far.
$CLOV is attempting to make a presence within the healthcare industry, which is never an easy path. Their mission as a company will be very difficult to pursue, although a very lucrative one if executed adequately.
With a Biden Administration advocating health care for all in America, the push from various lawmakers in congress will help aid individuals gain access to companies like Clover, who are offering insurance at very little-to-none premiums, copays, and prescription drug prices.
I will be updating this post as I have entered a multi-week swing, which may turn into a long-term hold- depending on confirmation within the price action. GLTA!
FMS Technical Analysis 🧙Fresenius Medical Care is the largest dialysis company in the world, treating about 345,000 patients in roughly 4,000 clinics across the globe as of December 2019. In addition to providing dialysis services, the firm is a leading supplier of dialysis products, including machines, dialyzers, and concentrates. Fresenius accounts for about 35% of the global dialysis products market and benefits from being the world's only fully integrated dialysis business. Services account for roughly
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$ZOM could surge 100% due to upcoming launch of TruformaTangible catalyst behind surge is due to the upcoming launch of Truforma , Zomedica’s point-of-care (POC) diagnostic device for the detection of thyroid disease in dogs and cats and adrenal disease in dogs.
The platform will hit the market on March 30 , and ahead of the product’s debut, the company has also just nabbed a vital distribution deal.
Last week, Zomedica announced an agreement with Miller Veterinary Supply who will distribute Truforma.
Miller is the U.S.’s oldest wholesale veterinary distributor and one of the veterinary industry’s fastest growing businesses. The company will be Zomedica’s representative in the eastern and mid-eastern states. Its sales and customer service efforts will be bolstered by sales representatives assigned by Zomedica, which the company is currently recruiting as it prepares for the launch.
The pet market has been a prime beneficiary of the pandemic’s stay-at-home mandates and according to the American Pet Products Association, spending in the segment reached a record $99 billion in the U.S. last year. Outlay on diagnostic care in this market is expected to grow to $2.8 billion in 2024 from $1.7 billion in 2019.
H.C. Wainwright analyst Swayampakula Ramakanth says that ahead of Truforma’s debut, the agreement “strengthens the commercial machinery.”
“We are encouraged by the progress in commercial preparation for the upcoming launch, and accordingly we are raising the probability of launch to 90%, up from 75% previously,” the 5-star analyst said. “Additionally, due to the lower yield of the long-term Treasury note that has resulted in a lower risk-free rate and a lower market risk premium, we have adjusted the discount rate to 6% from 12%.”
To this end, Ramakanth boosted his price target on ZOM from $0.3 to $1.2, suggesting upside of an additional 20% from current levels. Needless to say, Ramakanth’s rating stays a Buy.
finance.yahoo.com
$CLOV Bearish Channels Breakout upward Incoming$CLOV was consolidating after a retracement down. After consolidation and approaching the edge of a wedge indicating a big movement. They were unexpectedly the target of a short sellers report which caused the movement to continue downward. With a well articulated rebuttal the doc was able to rally and bounce back up. We appear to be at the bottom of a bearish channel and will likely retrace back up in the near future a short squeeze caused by any positive catalyst will likely break the channel upward allowing us to retrace upward towards the $14 area. With February 19th options expiring I expect the retracement to happen soon after.
Bottom-fishing for long-term trading.According to Wells Fargo Advisors, "BAX: OMCL Would Be An Excellent Fit ... OMCL would bring better IT integration and an expanded set of hospital relationships as Baxter launches a new infusion pump next year. OMCL might also be able to finally realize its vision of a stronger international business (9% of total revenue) with the help of Baxter’s infrastructure. The pandemic pressured OMCL’s original 13% revenue growth target for 2020 down to a 2% revenue decline. However, management indicated bookings surged so much in Q3 the company was able to reinstate its original 9% bookings growth guidance for 2020 and gave a 2021 revenue outlook of 17% growth (13% organic). So, fundamentals seem solid."
Genisi bull flag break (12 hr)Upward momentum on the StochRSI, RSI trending up ,recent break of 12 hr bull flag ...Target 89/90 (depending on StochRSI peaking)
MMEDF over 3.41OTC name in the cutting-edge field of medical psilocybin is back in the consolidation zone. Can accumulate shares here or wait for the breakout confirmation to play to recent highs.
WARNING! The biggest short seller of is “Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF” and I don’t know the other ones. But this one for example holds a lot of healthcare stocks (for example Change Healthcare Inc CHNG). So by buying GME some healthcare stocks, paypal, apple... etc. get at least under pressure. And a lot of stuff is invested in this etf. I couldn’t do the full research but higher prices in GME could destroy your saving on the bank or life insurances or… so nobody knows who really wins with higher prices. Maybe somebody can research that who really is losing here Please, before everything is to late. Maybe this was even on purpose to get rid of unpaid bill to the “regular” people. This ETF goes bankrupt and all the invested Money in this etf is gone! Can someone please make a full research! I wasn’t able to find it!
Swing Trade: 🏥 Healtcare sector: Vapo BreakoutHi guys,
Sharing one of my today swingtrades in healtcare.
Nice setup for breakout.
If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow.
Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
Trade Alert pt.2: NVIVGap fill in progress, we have a runner here.
Should look to fill gap to $5 BUT it might fall short. Either way this is already running and passed the "magic $1" so should be multi day runner. Time will tell.
PT 1: $2 PT2: $4.60
Loss exit on pullback under 1.40
If this drops to red box zone its bad news, though Looks less likely to go down based on chart
Good luck!
Previous post on NVIV below:
*Please leave a like if you find this helpful!*
MYCO - Next Move? MYCO has formed a prefect cup & handle on the daily
- 4 hits against an important 0.60 resistance
- handle dropped perfectly on the 0.5 fib support level
- price is currently consolidating right below resistance
Fundamentals in the psychedelic space are lining up perfectly for a MYCO breakout.
- they are 1 in only 4 companies currently approved for phase 2 FDA trials
- confirmed listing on the first ever psychedelic ETF - PSYK
However, a breakout will only be confirmed after a daily close above 0.60 - volume and a newly approved catalyst will be key
Good Luck to All!
DNA ReconstructionAlright team i want you to keep this channel in mind as we progress through another Green Week!
I am predicting this price will maintain within this channel moving forward.
As you can see now it is doing a good job staying within !
Penny stocks are always volatile. However The revolutionary technology this company is bringing to the table is outstanding
I am sure a lot of you already researched it and know this ! so i wont get into it.
Keep in mind Buy low & NEVER SELL!
Follow me for technical analysis!
All of this is only opinion and my own personal journal.
None of this is financial advice !
& if you dont plan on holding long term. Dont bother putting your money in this market.
TDOC Breakout Trade, with Trigger and StopAfter the acquisition of LVGO, TDOC has traded sideways, creating a 6 month base. During that time TDOC has increased its institutional holders to 44 funds. Technically, the chart is showing an inverted head and shoulders base beakout, a trendline break, and consolidating below supply between 225-240. Above 240, TDOC can break upward to 300 with an upward target of 500. The chart is similar to ROKU's pre-breakout, which I also posted. (see related ideas). The stop would be a break below the downtrend, at 215.
$CLOV Bullish Wedge, Incoming Break Upwards$CLOV revering and nearing end of bullish wedge pattern. We likely see a nice breakup going into next week. Additionally, the Medicare Advantage Leadership Innovations meeting will be held on January 27, 2021 where they stated they'd announce a previously unannounced partnership. Recently updated 2021 provider lists notes the addition of Costco $COST. So this could be potentially huge news incoming as well as a great catalyst to retrace and retest previous high's.
ATRA growth potentialAtara Biotherapeutics , Inc. (Nasdaq: ATRA ), a pioneer in T-cell immunotherapy, leveraging its novel allogeneic EBV T- cell platform to develop transformative therapies for patients with serious diseases including solid tumors, hematologic cancers and autoimmune diseases
"Atara made significant progress in 2020 and is well-positioned for a strong 2021," said Pascal Touchon, President and Chief Executive Officer of Atara. "As the most advanced allogeneic T-cell therapy company, nearing initiation and subsequent completion of a rolling BLA for our lead product candidate tab-cel®, we are making key investments in commercial infrastructure to ensure delivery of this potentially transformative therapy to patients in dire need. Atara also anticipates significant progress throughout 2021 on ATA188 for progressive MS with multiple data read-outs and, after recent productive interactions with the FDA, is poised to expand enrollment in the RCT and conduct an interim analysis in H1 2022."
Nova Leap Health Corp (NLH)Executive Summary
Nova Leap Health is a consolidator of an extremely fragmented space of home care and home health care agencies. Nova Leap buys them at ~5x EBITDA and subsequently improves EBITDA margin. As the company scales its operations, the operating leverage would lead to margin expansion. The stock price has an upside of ~100% in 1 year.
Opportunity
1) Small Cap (50m)
2) Sell side has not discovered it yet
3) Flying under the radar
Nova presently has a $2.1m cash pile and a long term debt of $2.7m, debt was $5.3M in August with a $2.7M cash pile
Business Overview
NLH is home care and home health care services company operating in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Nova Scotia. NLH all entered into all these markets (except for Ohio) through M&A transactions.
Home care covers such activities as:
Dementia care
Personal grooming like bathing or getting dressed
Moving around: getting in and out of the bed/shower
Medication reminders
Errands like grocery shopping and picking up prescriptions
Light housekeeping
Meal preparation
Home healthcare covers such activities as:
Skilled nursing
At-home physical therapy
Pain Management
Caring for wounds
Prescription management
Customer Value Proposition
Home care and home healthcare enables senior citizens to stay in their homes even after they cannot live completely on their own. Homecare crates a buffer from when a senior citizen needs to move to a nursing facility
COVID-19 Tailwind
Senior citizens living at nursing facilities suffered greatly from COVID-19. There were instances where a big part of a nursing home’s population got infected by COVID-19. Second, many senior citizens got locked down at nursing facilities and were not able to see family members for very extended periods of time for safety reasons. Needless to say, that was a real hardship.
Thus, I expect that both senior citizens and their families (e.g., children) would be trying to avoid or at least delay moving to a nursing facility as long as possible which would provide strong tailwinds for home care industry and Nova Leap.
M&A Strategy
1. M&A Criteria
Nova Leap has the following acquisition criteria:
1) U.S. and Canada geographic focus
2) Positive EBITDA with strong reputation/brand
3) Normally 5+ year history
4) Opportunities for operational synergies
5) $1M-$15M of Revenues
Nova Leap is going after targets that are too small for private equity players and as a result faces limited competition. The space is very fragmented, and Nova Leap has many potential acquisition targets in front of it.
M&A Playbook and Integration
Nova Leap buys home care businesses that are primarily private pay. After that Nova Leap makes incremental changes at the acquired operations.
First, Nova Leap implements price increases where it is appropriate.
Second, Nova Leap reducea overtime because overtime destroys gross profit margin.
Third, Nova Leap consolidates the back-office functions such as accounting. For example, instead of an accountant looking after one agency, such account working at Nova Leap HQ would be looking after 3 or 4 home care agencies.
Fourth, better scheduling using scheduling software.
Operating Philosophy
CEO Chris Dobbin runs Nova Leap in a very decentralized fashion. Most locations’ leaders have lots of autonomy. HQ are responsible for setting up standards and back office / accounting. Chris Dobbin spends his time heavily on M&A and overseeing the agencies’ leaders.
Unit Economics
The key operating drivers are the number of client service hours and revenue per hour. Revenue per hour has been quite stable and is ~$25.
Cost per hour has also been stable: ~$16.50 - $17.00.
Thus, the profit per hour is ~$8.50 to $9.
Four-Wall Economics and Four-Wall EBITDA
“Four-wall EBITDA” is of course a misnomer because there are no tangible walls to speak of, but the concept still applies. I want to analyze profitability of field operations first and then overlay HQ expenses on top of that. The key issue that Nova Leap is facing today is its small size of field operations vs. HQ. However, with a few more acquisitions and de minimis growth in HQ expenses (see more on this below), the operating leverage would kick in and lead to a disproportionate increase in EBITDA.
In 2019 segment EBITDA margin (e.g., before HQ costs) was 11.88%. However, in 1Q 2020 and 2Q 2020 it was 10.91% and 10.39% respectively due to the COVID-19 impact.
Revenue run-rate (ex-COVID-19) is ~$5M per quarter or ~$20M per year. With ~12% segment EBITDA margin, NLH should be able to generate ~~$2.4M of segment EBITDA. With the EV of ~$19M, the EV/Segment EBITDA is ~7.85x.
HQ Operations
The HQ team based in Halifax is small and includes CEO, CFO, controller, and business development person. This is purely corporate function.
The HQ also has 5 accountants. However, they work with field agencies.
Nova Leap wants to do 4 to 6 M&A transactions a year (there was zero during COVID-19 pandemic so 2020 number would probably be lower than this target). Doing these M&A transactions will not require hiring any more HQ personnel. However, Nova Leap would probably need to hire an accountant for every 3-4 acquisitions (maybe 5).
HQ expenses are ~$280K - $300K per quarter when there are no M&A transactions. Let’s call it $1.2M per year.
Scaling
What the numbers above is mean is that Nova Leap needs to get another $1M of EBITDA to show the strength of its operating model. That would probably require $5M of capital. I expect that it will be done with a very small dilution to existing shareholders.
Valuation and Upside Potential
As I alluded above, current headline multiple of EBITDA is not particularly attractive. However, with getting more scale and proving the model, I would not be surprised if Nova Leap trades at 12x – 14x EBIDA in 1 year could generate a 100% upside
Risks
M&A Integration
M&A integration risks are inherent for any roll up / consolidation strategy and NLH is not exception.
2. Leverage
NLH has ~$2.0M of debt which is a lot given its EBITDA today. If NLH does not grow its EBITDA, its leverage can become an issue.
Catalysts
1. Continuous M&A
2. Operating leverage showing up as the company continues to scale its operations.