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BTC may be forming a cup and handle.Just my opinion, but with both the 4hr charts rsi and stochrsi well exhausted and well into the overbought zone and the 1 day chart's indicators now just reaching overbought conditions, I don't think we will be able to sustain an immediate breakout of the inverted head and shoulder pattern and a small correction is due to reset these indicator levels before a breakout can be sustained. at the same time we would like to see the price reach $6850 or so before any type of correction or retracement to establish a higher high on the 1 day chart and keep the ball in the bulls court. We can also see a very cup like price pattern has formed on this right shoulder. Also keep in mind that cme futures are set to expire on July 27th. All things considered my guess is that one of the 4hr candles that occur today will hit the $6850 region to complete the rimline of this cup pattern and then for the next 10 days or so we will see it form a handle until those futures expire at which point we will break above the cups rimline, the neckline of the inverse head and shoulder and the symmetrical triangle pattern we are in. Perhaps it will be Q3 which is the bullish one this year.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
1
Sending bullwicks above the inverted head and shoulders necklineLooking at the 1 day chart we see a very promising sign here that the higher low/higher high bull pattern might continue. We need the price action to climb to 6850 or so to form a new higher high on the 1 day chart before the next significant breakdown happens. If so odds are food the following down trend will only form a higher low on the 1 day chart which will continue to allow the bulls to control the momentum. I already exited my position at 6690 and will be setting a stop buy up around 6894 to be safe. I think once we achieve the higher high on the 1 day chart a correction will be overdue and we will likely dip. I'm thinking we won't dip under 6.1k though before the next uptrend and will confirm a higher low at that point. All just my opinion though I could easily be wrong. As always not financial advice. Thanks for reading and best of luck!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
2
Big Surge in Bull Volume Takes Us Back Up Towards the NecklineA much needed bullish volume surge breaks price action back up above the 4hr 200 and 50MAs and sends us back up towards the neckline of the inverted head and shoulder pattern. People are attributing it to the rumor that Blackrock is considering getting into crypto ETFs. Botht he 4hr stochrsi and rsi are super extended in the overbought zones..so I think our most likely scenarios here now are either consolidate through a bull flag pattern for a bit to bring those indicator levels back down or potentially form a bart and dip back down a little bit to cool off the indicator levels. I still feel confident we will break above the inverted head and shoulder neckline eventually but probably not until after the futures expire on the 27th. This bullish break came at a crucial time too as the 4hr 50 and 200mas were wanting to create a death cross and this break should hopefully keep any death cross brief and send it right back into a golden cross. Although I am long term bullish, all factors considered here leaves this idea in the neutral zone.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
7
Inverted Head & Shoulders on 1 Day Chart Still Very Much In PlayWe got very close to the original projected price target of the lavender wedges projected breakdown, but jut broke upward from the latest bear flag just before the new day candle started. What's a very encouraging sign is that we dropped to almost the exact same height as the left shoulder of this inverted head and shoulder pattern...always good for the validity of a h&s pattern when the shoulders are that symmetrical...not a necessity but usually when its that picturesque it gives the pattern much greater probability of playing out. For the price to turn around at that exact height increases my expectations of the inverted head and shoulder pattern triggering after all...so wise to keep a close eye on that. You'll recall in my laat idea titled two outcomes...one of the outcomes I saw was the price turning back upward to continue the right shoulder...the other outcome was that we would bounce off the bottom trendline of the pink symmetrical triangle we are in...that outcome is still in play too, and in fact both could happen...reaching the bottom trendline and bouncing up off it would not invalidate the inv h&s pattern....however it's much more encouraging pattern if it stays to the upside now based on the symmetry of everything. Wise to still be prepared for both outcomes though. I'm leaning more towards it going up from here but will keep this idea listed neutral since both outcomes are still in play. I also projected it reaching the neckline of the inv head and shoulder pattern around the 28th just because I'm fundamentally factoring in when the Futures contracts are set to expire on the 27th. Considering how that's still 15 days away that still gives us plenty of time to have another dip again before reaching the neckline so be prepared.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Two Outcomes.Looking at the 1day chart you can see that if we were to break upward here we would be forming a higher low on the 1 day chart and that also the inverted head and shoulder pattern is still in play. However the stochrsi on the 1 day chart has plenty of room to dip still. I think we could still be forming a 1 day inverted head and shoulder pattern however if we were to break downward from here I think we would bounce upward off off the bottom trendline of the symmetrical pink triangle as support around 6k. At this point either outcome is probable and thus this idea will be listed neutral.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
1
Still flirting w/ inv. h&s neckline; nearing 4hr golden crossWe continue to form a bull flag at the top trendline of the pink symmetrical triangle which also doubles as the neckline of the inverted head and shoulder pattern. We can see the we are on the verge of a 4hr golden cross too with the 4hr 50ma(in orange) nearing the 4hr 200ma (in blue). A golden cross on the 4hr chart is very often followed by an uptrend. I feel that based on how close to over extended the 4hr rsi and stochrsi are though that we may need to consolidate inside this bull flag for quite a bit longer with maybe even a bearish fakeout or two to reset them enough to sustain the breakout that will come from breaking up out of the inverted head and shoudler pattern and the the pink symmetrical triangle pattern at the same time. I've placed a green dotted line on the chart to illustrate the expected breakout target of the inverted head and shoulders pattern, and a pink dotted line to illustrate the projected breakout target from the symmetrical triangle pattern. The only thing holding the breakout back currently is how close to overextended the rsi and stochrsi indicators are. Despite that I believe we can find a way to consolidate too cool them off then achieve the breakout...especially if a 4hr golden cross occurs. We still have the lavender rising wedge we have been bound to though as well which may maintain resistance so while I believe we will break upward I am prepared for a fakeout as well. We currently have a 230 btc coin sell wall right at 7k on coinbasepro so that may be a hard resistance hurdle to overcome as well. Overall my sentiment currently is bullish though so I will lable this idea long, while anticipating a bearish fake out or 2 before the breakout. Thanks for reading and good luck **not financial advice**
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
Testing the Neckline of the Inverted Head & Shoulders PatternA nice bull surge has taken us to the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern! We pierced it on the last candle..if we can close a couple candles above the neckline I'm fairly confident we will be revisiting the rimline of the inverted cup and handle pattern we broke down from last month. Breaking out from the inverted head and shoulder pattern will also allow us to break upward from the current pink symmetrical triangle we are in as well. However we need to keep an eye on the top trendline of the rising wedge we are still in (in lavender) breaking above this would be a very bullish sign indeed. As with all head and shoulder patterns...wait for the breakout (lots of bullish volume) to decide what to do, as they often times will end up being fakeouts. Good luck in whatever you decide to do, remember this is not financial advice, and thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
2
Head and shoulders for bulls and bears!It looks like we have a little (green) H&S that could be a setting up a big (orange) reverse H&S... I will be keeping a close eye on $6140-$6300 level if the price drops from here to see if a reversal will be taking place. I've posted before that I think we may be starting to see a turnaround in the crypto market and starting to slowly build into a long, slow bull market. Whether or not this will be a catalyst for that scenario is yet to be seen. If the big orange reverse H&S breaks down, I'll be looking to $5000 for the next support. Have a wonderful weekend!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by fghjkl
Still inside larger rising wedge; Potential inverted h&s in playAfter seemingly breaking down from the first wedge but not getting a big enough red candle to go with it I have readjusted the smaller green rising wedge to fit more of a traditional bull flag shape. Was also able to widen the larger purple rising wedge with the newer candles wicks to see that we are still very much inside the bigger rising wedge. We could essentially however stay inside the bigger wedge and trigger an inverted head and shoulder pattern for a bullish break upward before we break downward out of the larger wedge. If hat were to happen it may allow us to avoid breaking downward from the bigger lavender rising wedge all together. Current stochrsi, and rsi on the 4hr chart seem like tey are ready for an upward climb as well. All these things considered makes this idea a neutral one.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Bitcoin Reversal Currently, it appears to me that bitcoin is following the path of the inverse head and shoulder I have drawn and suggested weeks ago, it has broken the trendline of the last move down in an off shade of blue. So long as 6250 (the green line) stays strong the bullish sentiment will remain and we will continue the pattern. I believe that there is a strong possibility that pattern will be completed. This is also one of the possible last times that the bulls have to reverse this trend. So, for bitcoin to reverse its trend, it must significantly break the resistance trendline of the descending triangle (the lower purple line was the support and this will now be strong resistance, and the upper purple line was the resistance and it continues to be strong resistance), this would confirm a double bottom and it would send bitcoins price further up and to possible new highs. Failure of breaking the trendline would mean that we are most likely going to continue move sideways or continue our slow decent downwards. Once completed, the inverted head and shoulders has about an 80% chance of reaching its target objective. The Large oval is the point at which I believe bitcoin will test these trendlines. If the inverse head and shoulder is completed then it will be going upwards to test the trend lines, if not then it will continue moving downwards or sideways. If bitcoin cannot break the first trendline of the descending triangle, then it will continue downwards, if it can break the first trendline, it must test the true resistance which is the upper limits of 7000 or the lower limits of 8000 dependent on the time frame bitcoin makes a move; however, if it cannot break the second trendline bitcoin's price will continue downwards or sideways. Take Away: 1.) The inverted head and shoulder must hold (the left shoulder should not dip too low) then it must test the neckline of the inverted head and shoulder, if these do not hold true, expect more downwards action. 2.) If bitcoin breaks the neckline on high volume expect to test the trendlines and expect a possible bullish reversal and a continuation upwards, if not, expect more downwards action. Previous analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CuddlyCuddles
Potential Inverted head and shoulders on the 1/4hr chartsWe got a nice little green impulse past couple candles with some very strange behavior going on with the orderbook over on gdax likely from bots.We can see now that we are a bove a very ugly looking inverted head and shoulder pattern but we can also see the 4hr stoch rsi is overextended and must eventually drop sooner than later. If we can maintain the price action above 6250 for the next couple 4hr candles we should see the inverted head and shoulders triggered which could take it to potentially the 6700s if so. There's an equally good chance however it could be a fakeout and a deeper dip could be on the way below our last low after simply forming a lower high here. For us to form a higher high we would need to impulse above 6.8k not impossible, especially if the inverted head and shoulders is triggered...probability still favors the bears at this point but I will leave this idea as neutral for now. Somehow even though the adam and eve double bottom has sadly been invalidated we still have a chance to trigger a triple bottom. if the triple bottom doesn't occur...I still think we will see a bullish turn around within a weeks time or so simply because the 200MA on the 1day chart is now starting to finally curl downward...it is still currently factoring in all price action from December 7th to now...but once it no longer factors in anything from before December 15th we should see a noticeable drop off on the 200MA, and if we simultaneously are going up ward enough to get the trajectory of the 50ma to point upward then we should see a 1 day golden cross sometime in July which will be a great sign for the bulls and potentially restart the bull market. For now, however I am neutral.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail