Harmonic Patterns
Interest Rates Are Falling, So Why Is the EUR/USD Declining?Hello everyone,
Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a slightly negative bias around 1.0360 in early Friday’s Asian session. The major currency pair remains defensive as the US Federal Reserve adopts a less dovish stance despite cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting on Wednesday.
In summary: The Fed’s hawkish tone has delivered its intended impact: the dollar has strengthened, and markets have weakened.
Today, all eyes are on the November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Meanwhile, the EU will release its preliminary estimate of December Consumer Confidence.
Technical Perspective:
After the initial decline, the price attempted to recover but faced resistance at key levels, highlighted by the blue liquidity zones on the chart. If the price fails to break through the liquidity zone at 1.03894, we could see further bearish pressure. The first target lies at 1.03502, and a break below this level could drive the price toward 1.03000, marking a significant move for the pair.
Wishing you all successful trades and great profits!
PAYTM- Analysis If closes above 474 for 2 -3 days then only Buy strict stoploss of day closing below 365 or 314 use as per your comfort/risk management
Targets to watch
T1- 601 to 613 or 661 to 673
T2- 924 to 936 or 985 to 997
T3 1248 to 1260 or 1309 to 1321
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
*Comment or message me if you wish to see my analysis for any stocks.
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Falling towards overlap support?GBP/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 194.73
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 193.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 198.45
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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#ETHEREUM - BUY THE DIP LIKE A CHILL GUY ?Is now a good time to go long on Ethereum?
Looking at the Fibonacci levels, we can see that Ethereum has just bounced off the golden pocket. This could signal a strong potential for upward momentum.
Here’s my idea:
1. Enter a long position here and aim to hold until the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.
2. Along the way, consider scaling into the trade at key retracements to maximize gains while managing risk effectively.
What are your thoughts? Would you take this trade, or do you see other opportunities forming? Let’s discuss below!
Analyzing Market Trends and FED Interest Rate Decisions "SPX"The daily chart above highlights FED interest rate cut decisions with vertical lines. I've used the DJI ticker instead of SPX, as it provides a more comprehensive representation of the overall market, unaffected by the dominance of the Magnificent Seven.
My analysis focuses on monthly candle peaks (indicating overbought conditions) and lows (indicating oversold conditions), as well as direction reversals. This cycle repeats, forming higher highs and higher lows. By identifying these patterns, we can determine the market direction, which is either trending upward (green) or downward (red).
Now we know the direction where the market is heading. Its either trending to form a new higher high OR new higher low.
With that understanding, when we plot vertical lines on FED decision days, the direction has not changed. HOWEVER, the decision is accelerating the market direction to its targeted price(either higher high or higher low).
The above guidance is for swing traders for a duration of about 2/3 weeks. Intraday traders can benefit this by looking at days high and low before decision announcement and knowing where the market is generally headed.
As a trader, I utilize custom-built screener tables that cascade data across multiple timeframes and stocks/sectors. This unique approach provides a fascinating big-picture perspective, highlighting strong stocks and sectors.
Reach out to me OR follow me for further insights.
Happy Trading!!
Nat Gas Thursday 19 Dec Even though Script opened with a 3% gap on the upside, the day was quite rewarding. Movements weren't that quick so trading manually wasn't that difficult. Buying on dips and selling on rallies was the name of the game today.
It started creeping on the downside for some time but that turned out to be a temporary fall. The Market gave abundant opportunities to cover the losses.
Whoever trades moving average crossover might have lost money due to the choppiness in the market. The day rewarded someone who doesn't act on FOMO. And punished those who can't handle big but temporary drawdowns.
That is it for today. Hope whatever vehicle you trade has paid you handsomely. See you all tomorrow!
copper
copper price dropping fast due to the following factors
Economic Factors
1. Interest Rate Concerns: The Federal Reserve's hawkish cut has strengthened the US dollar, making copper more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
2. Global Economic Slowdown: Concerns about a potential global economic slowdown, particularly in China, have led to decreased demand for copper.
3 Increased Supply: Copper production has increased, leading to a surplus in the market.
4. Decreased Demand: Weaker demand from China, the world's largest copper consumer, has contributed to the price drop.
Market Sentiment
1. Risk Aversion: Investors have become more risk-averse, leading to a decrease in demand for copper and other commodities.
2. Technical Selling: Copper prices have broken through key technical levels, triggering stop-loss orders and accelerating the price decline.
Potential Butterfly Pattern USDJPY DailyWatching to see if this Butterfly pattern will complete. This is the D chart so could take some time. In addition we need to clear the previous high. Looking back on the weekly chart we are up at some all time highs, so if we clear the previous high then we will be watching the 1272 completion zone as possible reversal. Keep in mind the Holiday is next week and may also play a factor. Keeping on my radar for now.
-1R Selling GBPAUDHello!!! this trade Is nice, let me take you through the pros and cons.
Cons:
A trendline with only 2 touches I don't even need to explain how silly this is.
I labelled this as supply which is very silly considering that there was no big moves after the breakout of this level.
Pros:
The pivot was on the right trade but this trade was forced.