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Risk-Model for the US-MarketOur proprietary risk model for the US market changed to GREEN giving swing-traders a green signal to increase their exposure. Most technical indicators in our risk model improved versus last week and are now showing a green or al leaset a yellow light. Contrarian / psychological indicators like the bulls vs bear indicator are well in a range which would support a transition into a new bull market. Most importantly, the individual stocks on our watchlists and our model-portfolio acted well in course of last week and we could score some nice gains. We can now apply the concept of progressive exposure and increase our exposure on the back of our gains from last week. By doing that, we are always invested the most when things are working well for us, that means when our strategy is well fitted for the current market environment. Swing-traders can increase their exposure but still need to be aware of the risk around high volatility in the current market environment. While we could score some nice gains in course of last week, the market is still responding with a high volatility to relevant news. This is different in a stable and confirmed bull market uptrend in which you will only have some volatility around news updates.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
DefiLlama: Total Value Locked by Protocols"Exchange is not your wallet". "Not your keys, not your coins" Despite the strong turmoil due to the FTX crash, DeFi dApps (Decentralized Finance applications that run on blockchains) remain intact, at least for the most part. And given this bad context of the crypto market, it is worth noting that Dexes (decentralized exchanges) and Landing Protocols have proven to be much more resilient and secure than centralized exchanges, since the former have a more open administration and a source code that can be accessed and audited. On the other hand, centralized exchanges are a black box, and at this delicate moment, there are doubts if they really have enough balance to honor all withdrawals. DefiLlama TVL (Total Value Locked) The graph presented here shows the monetary values ​​locked in the main dApps, also called protocols. What the graph indicates is that the DeFi ecosystem remains intact, and so far the application that has suffered the most withdrawals and losses has been Mango Markets, which runs on the Solana blockchain. Due to the Alameda/FTX contamination, some Solana dApps may suffer more. The worst case scenario in case of eviction According to DefiLlama, the total amount locked in DeFi is $76.13b. Doing a very quick baker's account with approximate values: + Total TVL: $76,000,000,000.00 - FTX Leak: $10,000,000,000.00 - Investments by Alameda/FTX in Solana and some dApps: $6,031,139,675.00 ------------------------------- = $59,968,860,325,000 (-21%) So, if the market drops more, we could have a drop of another 21%, distributed among these protocols. But, again, this is just a quick calculation and could be wrong, and it is not investment advice. Final word This will be a time of consolidation, in which ecosystems with solid governance will prove their worth and emerge from this crisis even stronger.
DEFILLAMA:AAVE_TVL
by andre_007
DefiLlama: Total Value Locked in Blockchainsℹ️ This is a complementary study of the idea below, where I analyzed the TVL of the main dApps: Basically, here's a more macro view of DeFi ecosystems. Making a very crude analogy, dApps would be like the banks of the physical world, while blockchains would be the cities/countries where these banks reside. Total Value Locked in Blochchains Ethereum continues to reign isolated in the lead. Binance Smart Chain follows in second place, followed by Tron, AVAX, Matic, Optimism, Cronos, Solana, FTM, among others. Last on this list are Ethereum Classic and Ethereum PoW. The chart still does not show Solana's decrease, which is currently at $656.23m. I believe it is due to a delay. That's a 24% drop from the previous day. Now it remains to see the scenes of the next chapters.
DEFILLAMA:ETH_TVL
by andre_007
An easy way to lower the risk profile of your stock portfolioThe correlation between Visa and Mastercard creates an interesting investment trick. I began this analysis not even looking for the correlation between these two companies' stock prices. But rather I was looking for some chart patterns using a stock screener. At the top of the list, these two companies emerged. As usual, I was going to go through the stock charts of all the companies in the list briefly to determine if they hold any chart pattern merit. However, as I scanned over Visa, and then Mastercard, I noticed they looked extremely similar. Weird. I then opened up Tradingview and put these stocks in. Side by side they look the same. These two companies have very similar price movements. No surprise, they are very similar companies. They are direct competitors. They are both big players in the global credit services market. Transacting trillions of dollars in total payments volumes per year. They’re both tech companies that connect the consumer and the merchant digitally for transactions. They have been seen as rivals for over a decade now. Neither Visa nor Mastercard are involved in extending credit or issuing cards. They work in a co-branded relationship with the card provider. That's why you will see their logos on your credit card but won’t see a full absolute Mastercard/Visa credit card. Visa is generally larger in terms of the transaction, purchase volume and cards in circulation. However, Mastercard growth has been picking up and may see a catch-up. Now let’s get back to the price movement analysis. I have split this up into three time periods and then done a Pearson Correlation Test. The first period is the matched IPO date to the current date. The next is the last 5 years and then the last 2 years. The reason for the three time periods is simple. I want to do a full IPO to current date analysis to get the full picture and long-term perspective. A 5-year analysis because if you look at the charts above, that’s when the volatility in the stocks picks up. The last 2 years, because if you look again at the charts above, some crazy price movements have been occurring in the last two years that do not follow the past 14-year trend. The closer to +1, the closer the correlation. March 2008 - Nov 2022: 0.83 Nov 2017 - Nov 2022: 0.92 Nov 2020 - Nov 2022: 0.90 As you can see from the above stats both of these stocks have a close relationship with each other. A higher correlation in recent years. Of course, correlation doesn’t mean causation. However, the fact that these two companies are very similar and direct competitors means that one could form a reasonable conclusion. Not that one stock is affecting the other price. But rather than investors see these two companies as very similar. Such that when they exit one, they exit the other. Unless there is a big reason not to. But as you can see from the stats above. The stocks have a close correlation over the last 14 years such that even if one says that, let, for example, Visa is going to grow faster than Mastercard, the chances are - Mastercard wouldn’t be far behind. Henceforth, this leads to an interesting investment tip: Let’s say you want to diversify your portfolio by gaining some exposure to the credit services industry. Since Visa and Mastercard are the two leading companies, you chose them. However, you only have enough money to invest in one. But you also want to lower the risk profile of your portfolio. Is there a way both can be done? The answer is yes, since Visa and Mastercard have such a close correlation and are very big established companies they will most likely follow each other in price movement. Also, since they are two different companies, you will be diversifying your investment and will be lowering your risk. So, you divide that last portion of your portfolio into two smaller portions and buy Visa and Mastercard 50:50. This will mean you get the exposure you are after, the returns as well since they have a close correlation, and the risk is lowered since they are two separate companies. Quite a cool trick is not it? I created three different portfolios. Each beginning with $10,000. I invested the full out in two of them into Visa and Mastercard. The last portfolio had a 50:50 split. I then calculated the standard daily deviation and the annualized standard deviation. Here are the results: Visa 100%: Start value: $10,000 End value: $137,295.57 Annualized STD: 29.60% Mastercard 100%: Start value: $10,000 End value: $151,466.00 Annualized STD: 32.30% Visa 50% Mastercard 50%: Start value: $10,000 End value: $144,380.79 Annualized STD: 29.50% As you can see from the above stats, once the two stocks have been combined the standard deviation drops by 8.67% and the standard deviation is lower than the two stocks individually. This means the risk is lower. However, yes, the final value isn’t as high as the Mastercard 100% the returns are higher than the sole Visa 100% portfolio by 5.10%. So, in other words, the risk has been lowered than if you had individual portfolios and the returns are higher as well. Of course, the returns aren’t as high as they are in the Mastercard 100% portfolio, but the risk is lower while still ensuring higher returns. This means the Visa 50% Mastercard 50% portfolio provides an effective way to reduce risk while increasing returns. However, one thing to note is the maximum drawdown was the lowest in the Mastercard 100% portfolio. The second lowest is Visa 50% Mastercard 50%. Highest in Visa 50%. So, ensure that if you are going to follow this strategy, there is more research to be done and it is best worked in a long-term investment strategy possibly combined with dollar cost averaging. To conclude, if you want to see a higher return while lowering the risk profile of your portfolio. It pays to diversify with similar correlating assets.
NYSE:V
by BlackbearTrader
The crisis is here but worst is to comeUs30 has a huge divergence with Nas100 and S&P500 . These 3 index usually behave the same but lately Us30 has been making a strong bullish move while Nas100 and S&P500 are holding way below. There are multiples catalytics this mont and the following month that can help this move to happen. In my opinion the move has started with the Federal Fund Rate interest rate . The interest rate went up to 75bps. We have NFP coming up, CPI and others. The scenario is not looking good. The curve is not here yet which must likely will make the market to suffer more.
UShort
by Wiiso
2
Lithium Stocks Could Be Moving AgainLithium producers have outperformed this year thanks to the widening use of electric vehicles. With the metal’s price continuing to advance, today’s charts highlight several names in the group. We’ll start with Sociedad Quimica y Minera. The Chilean stock has consolidated since the spring while making incrementally higher lows. A falling trendline formed along the highs of September and October, which SQM just broke. Also notice how prices fought back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Similar patterns have occurred in other names. Albemarle, for example, made a higher low in October versus July. It dropped on November 3 after revenue missed, but clawed back to close in the green. ALB proceeded to break its own 50-day SMA and trendline before hitting a new record high on Tuesday: Livent is also pushing against a trendline: Lithium Americas and Piedmont Lithium , which have smaller market caps, have also made higher lows and are fighting trendlines. However they remain further from their all-time highs. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:SQM
by TradeStation
This could be the end for FB META, loss of confidencefacebook meta could go belly up from overspending and a complete business failure from lack of confidence from investors and business partners Meta could recover between 40 and 70. The forcast right now does not look good for Facebook META This could be the end of this company after having historical losses in a short amount of time. I personnally will never put money into this company again. I made alot "ALOT $$$$$$$.$$ " of return from this company while the bulls were running. I highly doubt the bulls will be coming back in full swing for META without some serious confidence for future plans. I posted on another account in september 2021 that facebook was going to lose 80% of its value in 2022. I also posted april 28, 2022 on this account that facebook META would crash down below 100.00 in 2022. I also posted in september 2021 about amazon crashing in 2022 I posted again on april 23 that amazon was crashing april 28th 2022. i told the truth way before any of this happened and i lost my old accounts for knowing what was about to happen this year. I knew it was time to sell in 2021 before the crash and i was blocked from every site i posted and had to start over with new accounts. You know your right when they start blocking freedom of speech and posting the correct information. I sold all my stocks before the crash. Sold all my bitcoin ethereum and all crypto holdings at the peak of 2021.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by UnknownUnicorn35774657
2
SUN INTERNATIONAL Ltd (SUI)"JSE-listed hotel and resort group Sun International is anticipating that its Sun City resort will have one of its best years ever in terms of operating cash flow in the current financial year following the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic." - Moneyweb - 13 Oct 2022 Potential buy/long. Looking for confirmation via candle strong structure. - Bullish ascending triangle formed on 1 Day Chart with higher lows and flat upper trendline. - Price at lower boundary of support line. Target 1 - R33.95 If we find a break above R33.95 and confirmed support Target 2 - R50.51
JSE:SUILong
by MarketMeistersTrading
My Thoughts on Twilio's Crash - Dip Buy Time?Two years ago or so I was hanging with some traders around the New York Stock Exchange building in NYC. I was speaking to one trader who had been watching many SaaS & tech stocks breakout, climb higher, and higher, and while he appreciated the business models and articles he read, the move seemed to remind him of the Dotcom Bubble. One company he spoke about was Twilio. He was not even sure what they did as a business. Most people I don't think even understand what companies like Twilio do. But he, he was insistent on it either being a short at some point or a stock to stay far away. The technicals did make sense. The euphoria for a company called "Twilio" just sounded like something in the Dotcom Bubble. While I appreciate the sentiment, I did remember thinking: "Twilio does some $700+ million in revenue every 3 months" and also "The very text messages this trader receives whenever he logs into an app for two-factor auth is probably delivered by Twilio" I did not buy any Twilio at the time, so I missed the run up, I also did not short any, so I missed the recent downmove. However, the conversation has stuck with me for a number of reasons. Let me explain: 1. Not everything is like the past. Yes, the age old "history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme" saying comes to mind. As does "this time is different" but the simple fact is that tech companies in the Dotcom bubble of 2000 were make $0 in revenue. Literally zero. Or maybe a few hundred thousand and trading at 1000x PS ratios or even no ratio at all because there was no revenue to begin with. No matter what someone says about Twilio, the company now generates nearly $1 billion in revenue every three months. 2. Reflecting on Twilio's recent crash, and this conversation that I have been thinking about, I must say that now seems like an interesting point in time whereby the old school traders, the ones who have been there and done that, seen the hype cycles, just may have outdone themselves with their level of pessimism. And so, while I don't have a position in Twilio, it is at the very top of my watchlist for a very fast rally. 3. Twilio's EV to revenue ratio, looking backward at the last 12 months, is 3.5. If you look forward to the next 12 months it is more like 2. And if you look forward 24 months, it is closer to one. Of course, that does imply a lot of growth, but you can look at Twilio's quarterly results to see the growth in this entire industry. I would also add that Twilio has 3x as much cash as debt on the balance sheet. $3 billion in cash to $1 billion in debt. With that being said, I am not sure I fully understand the severe drop in Twilio. I see a lot of people talk about its inability to generate profit or tight margins. However, if a company is generating close to $1 billion in revenue every 3 months, I find it very unlikely that they are unable to turn on the switch, at any point, and start printing cash as needed. Keep in mind that Twilio, like many companies in this space, deliver billions and billions of texts, emails, calls, and everything else every year. If they raise the price just by $0.005 yes, that's right, just a fraction of a penny, they would effectively almost double their entire revenue overnight. Twilio, for example, sends 130+ billion messages every year. Anyways, that's it. I've also marked some levels on the chart that I am looking at.
NYSE:TWLO
by scheplick
7
<<<<<<<<<<<BTC :still following upside price movements<<<<<Hello everyOne I Have Tried My Best to Bring the best Possible outcome in this Chart. By review BTC price chart's, As we can see price made a Expanding pattern's by movement & correction(H&SH in down trends line) We expect more hidden divergence bullish movements to reveal themselves in the next time. But it's not necessary to happening, We have at least 48H time to see this movement's. All important resistance and support's zone (short term) marked on the chart. This is not financial advise. PLZ DYOR With hopping success>>>>>>>>>>>>
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by imanff
2
How to Pick the next Winners? CAN-SLIMA successful trading strategy starts with sound stock selection criteria. Our JS-TechTrading strategy combines the timeless and success proven principles of Mark Minervini's SEPA (R) analysis and William O'Neils' CAN-SLIM (R) methodology. This tutorial describes the CAN-SLIM (R) methodology in detail: CAN-SLIM refers to the acronym developed by the American stock research and education company Investor's Business Daily (IBD). IBD claims CAN-SLIM represents the seven characteristics that top-performing stocks often share before making their biggest price gains. It was developed in the 1950s by Investor's Business Daily founder William O'Neil. The method was named the top-performing investment strategy from 1998-2009 by the American Association of Individual Investors. CAN-SLIM is a growth stock investing strategy formulated from a study of stock market winners dating back to 1953 in the book How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System In Good Times or Bad. This strategy involves implementation of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis. The objective of the strategy is to discover leading stocks before they make major price advances. These pre-advance periods are "buy points" for stocks as they emerge from price consolidation areas (or "bases"), most often in the form of a "cup-with-handle" chart pattern, of at least 7 weeks on weekly price charts. The strategy is one that strongly encourages cutting all losses at no more than 7% or 8% below the buy point, with no exceptions, to minimize losses and to preserve gains. It is stated in the book, that buying stocks of solid companies should generally lessen chances of having to cut losses, since a strong company (good current quarterly earnings-per-share growth, annual growth rate, and other strong fundamentals) will usually shoot up—in bull markets—rather than descend. Some investors have criticized the strategy when they didn't use the stop-loss criterion; O'Neil has replied that you have to use the whole strategy and not just the parts you like. O'Neil has stated that the CANSLIM strategy is not momentum investing, but that the system identifies companies with strong fundamentals—big sales and earnings increases which is a result of unique new products or services—and encourages buying their stock when they emerge from price consolidation periods (or "bases") and before they advance dramatically in price. The seven parts of the acronym are as follows: 1. C stands for Current quarterly earnings. Per share, current earnings should be up at least 25% in the most recent financial quarter, compared to the same quarter the previous year. Additionally, if earnings are accelerating in recent quarters, this is a positive prognostic sign. 2. A stands for Annual earnings growth, which should be up 25% or more over the last three years. Annual returns on equity should be 17% or more 3. N stands for New product or service, which refers to the idea that a company should have continuing development and innovation. This is what allows the stock to emerge from a proper chart pattern and achieve a new price. A notable example of this is Apple's iPhone. 4. S stands for Supply and demand. A gauge of a stock's demand can be seen in the trading volume of the stock, particularly during price increases. 5. L stands for Leader or laggard? O'Neil suggests buying "the leading stock in a leading industry." This somewhat qualitative measurement can be more objectively measured by the Relative Price Strength Rating of the stock, designed to measure the price performance of a stock over the past 12 months in comparison to the rest of the market based on the S&P 500 (or the S&P/TSX Composite Index for Canadian stock listings) over a set period of time. 6. I stands for Institutional sponsorship, which refers to the ownership of the stock by mutual funds, banks and other large institutions, particularly in recent quarters. A quantitative measure here is the Accumulation/Distribution Rating, which is a gauge of institutional activity in a particular stock. 7. M stands for Market Direction, which is categorized into three - Market in Confirmed Uptrend, Market Uptrend Under Pressure, and Market in Correction. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are studied to determine the market direction. During the time of investment, O'Neil prefers investing during times of definite uptrends of these indexes, as three out of four stocks tend to follow the general market direction.
Education
by JS_TechTrading
US TOP-Stocks: Watchlist Update Nov2General Stock Market Update Stock Market Fades Ahead Of Fed Decision On the eve of a Fed decision and perhaps new guidance on interest rates, the stock market was cautious on Tuesday as expected. The indexes closed lower after erasing early gains. The Nasdaq composite, which jumped 1.5% at the open, closed 0.9% lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed less than 0.3%. The Dow closed right at its 200-day moving average. Small caps outperformed, as the Russell 2000 climbed 0.2% despite paring gains. Volume fell on the Nasdaq and appeared to be lower on the NYSE. That suggests institutional investors moderated their selling. And, even with the Nasdaq's bad day, advancing stocks topped decliners by 9-7. Stock Market Uptrend Holding Up So Far From a broader perspective, the stock market has done little to damage its current uptrend. Confirmed with the Oct. 21 follow-through, the major indexes have kept distribution limited. Leaders Outperform Stock Market There was good action among leading issues and several names on our watchlist, despite the stock market's drop. Wednesday afternoon's announcement on interest rates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will have the stock market's full attention. The indexes have bounced in recent weeks on hopes that, after this week's expected 75-basis-point hike, the Fed will tone down its tightening strategy. Watchlist Update All stocks on our watchlists meet the hard selection criteria according to Mark Minervini's Trend-Template and William o' Neil's CAN SLIM methodology. Hereis the link to the updated watchlist: www.tradingview.com
Long
by JS_TechTrading
***Buy Nasdaq hedged by S&P***NDX underperformance vs. SPX is becoming extreme here, last time (in June 2022 right after the OPEX Quadruple witching we bounced massively on it until mid July This chart is the Weekly (log term) showing an intact uptrend right at the bottom of it here. Bottom Line buy here NDX hedged in SPX you are being supported by L/T Moving average below. 200d-MA Since SPX and NDX moves closer the Historical Volatility 8% (your risk) in entering the spread has a lower than the mrket currenlty at 27%.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by ArisopeCapital