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ARHS - Arhaus, Inc.Very nice reaction off of the 9ema this morning. Largest 30-min volume since the gap up on raised revenue guidance. Started a small position; couldn't justify a full position with the overall market being slightly extended on a short-term basis and showing negative action on the day. Will look to add over the debut price high of $14 only if the broad market continues its bullish phase. The all-time-high of 14.95 looms overhead, but with the volume & growth on this name, I'd expect it to clear that level as long as the market environment remains favorable. The FOMC decision and statement on Wednesday will have a major impact on the market environment. Even if I am shaken out of this starter position, I'm keeping this one on my focus list for as long as the environment remains healthy. This has the potential to be a true market leader.
NASDAQ:ARHSLong
by apaqu
GRIN. Holdings Ltd. for steady growth in global shippinJoin the smart investors who are banking on Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd for steady growth in the global shipping industry. With a diversified portfolio, strong financials, and experienced management team. Diversified Shipping Services: Grindrod provides a diversified range of shipping services, including dry bulk shipping, liquid bulk shipping, and container shipping, which can potentially provide stability and reduce dependence on any single business segment. Emerging Markets Exposure: has a significant presence in emerging markets, which can offer growth potential as these economies continue to develop and demand for shipping services increases. Strong Financial Performance: has a history of strong financial performance, with steady revenue growth and profitability, which can indicate a well-run and efficiently managed company. Growing Demand for Shipping Services: The global shipping industry is expected to grow as a result of increasing trade and economic activity, which can provide tailwinds for Grindrod's business. Experienced Management Team: has an experienced management team with a strong track record of running the company and making strategic decisions, which can provide confidence to potential investors. It's important to keep in mind that this is just one possible investment thesis and that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
GLong
by DCAChampion
BROS - Dutch Bros Inc.One of the longer-term plays I am watching. IPO'd back in 2021, they don't have much in the way of current earnings, but analyst estimates are expecting big growth over the next couple of years. Starting to inch its way up the right side of a possible stage 1 base on good volume. Don't need to rush into buying this one - need to let it show me that it is in fact ready to go. As of now, it's still in a downtrend regardless of the constructive action since the start of the year.
NYSE:BROSLong
by apaqu
USD/JPY BUYBUY. Coming to the conclusion market will see bull momentum in the next couple hours, due to JPY consumer staples/consumer price rising, I have projected consumer staples/cpi prices rise to 61% fib creating opportunity for USD to advance, USD economic sentiment has been exceptional as expected and should continue its bullish momentum. USD/JPY expected to finish temp retracement before the bull run trade which will be Entry @130.100 TP1@130.419, TP2@130.851, TP3@131.228
Long
by Sylynt056
1
Growth stock's hiatus ?Growth stocks outperform value stocks most of the time on a weekly chart of $VUG / $VTV, Vanguard's growth and value elf's respectively. Since the start of the 2022 bear market that relationship has reversed and, in August 2022, broke both horizontal support as well as a 14 year long diagonal support. These breakouts are being retested now, in January 2023. The outcome can impact both trading and long term investing strategy. For reference: $SPY in the bottom pane. Today's close: 400.35 Fib tool (not formal analysis)
AMEX:VUG
by gb50k
1
How to double your small ($250) trading account trading Bitcoin How to Double your Small ($250) Trading Account Trading Bitcoin I started a degen account with $250 and almost doubled it in 4 days making about 6 trades. This strategy is not Financial advice and I'm only illustrating what I have learnt trading this way. This is the first video in the series and I'll be continuing the series , updating you on progress, winners, losses, my trading journal and some live trading, so make sure to Sub, like comment and share. I show you how I entered my current trade, where I am looking to take profits and show you my pnl on Bybit. Not Financial Advice. DYOR. Papertrade before trading with real money. Hope you have a profitable trading day! Shawn
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by zartraderguy
2
Solar directionalsOrange directionals : Fast recovery to the upside, top out earlier than other possible directionals. The drawback is a risk of longer term decline. At the end, the challenge to the bottom middle blue line might occur here. Increased volatility is due to the distance between top and bottom. Blue directionals : Correction continues to the downside and bring solar stocks back into stable range. The drawback is a reduced ATR. The big positive will be that Solar stocks remains in range upwards that will grow for years. This will allow individual solar companies to compete on a level playing field. Yellow directionals : Solar companies have enough cash on hand and will put the capital to work. The expectation is to keep cost basis about 72.50 for the average investor in order to give investors a chance to reduce their cost basis by mid-summer, or hold the stocks. Caution : The arrows are approximately drawn for education/illustration purpose, and does not mean the prices will arrive at their ends precisely where they are drawn. All arrows may get to their targets early or break to the further upside, or decline to the downside extensively.
AMEX:TAN
by TrustThePhi
Looking back at equity factors in Q4 with WisdomTreeAfter three negative quarters, 2022 closed with a bang. Equities around the world delivered very strong returns in both October and November on the back of relatively good news on the inflation front. Therefore, despite a negative December, developed market equities gained 9.8% in Q4, and emerging market equities gained 9.7%. This instalment of the WisdomTree Quarterly Equity Factor Review aims to shed some light on how equity factors behaved in this rebound and how this may have impacted investors’ portfolios. Overall factors performed strongly for Global and US investors. Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4. Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest performance in both regions. In Europe, Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. Looking forward to 2023, the same issues that drove markets in 2022 remain. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above target. In an environment where interest rates and inflation remain high, and volatility of both equities and interest rates is increasing, we continue to tilt toward High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Performance in focus: High Dividend and Value finish strong In the fourth quarter of 2022, equity markets posted their first positive quarter of the year across regions. In October and November, markets benefitted from positive inflation numbers and increased hopes for a Fed Pivot or at least a pause in rate hikes leading to a sharp rebound. MSCI World gained 7.2% and 7% in those two months, respectively. However, hopes of such a pivot were dashed quickly, with the Federal Reserve Chair making clear in the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that he wanted to see “substantially” more progress on inflation before the hiking would stop. This led the MSCI World to lose -4.3% in December. Overall, factors performed strongly for Global and US investors: Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4 in US and global equities Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the best performance across regions but mostly in the US. In Europe, factors had a more difficult time. Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks but Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility delivered underperformance. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. In this market, Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility also delivered underperformance. In Q4, the market environment continued to discriminate strongly between Quality stocks. The definition of Quality and the criteria used have hugely impacted the result. Quality, left unattended, tends to tilt toward growth (investors pay for Quality, after all) and would have suffered from that tilt, as illustrated with MSCI Quality (‘Quality’ in Figures 1 and 2). Highly profitable companies and dividend growers have fared better this quarter, as illustrated by WisdomTree Quality. 2022, the year of the dividends Looking back at the whole year, High Dividend has dominated the factor space consistently across the year. It delivered a 13.4% outperformance to the MSCI World and a 15.2% outperformance versus the MSCI USA. In Global equities, Value and Min Volatility completed the podium with 8.3% of outperformance. In the US, the podium is a bit different, with WisdomTree Quality (that is, High Quality dividend payers) finishing second (+11.4%) and Min Volatility and Value coming third and fourth. In both regions, Growth and Quality (with its growth tilt) were the only factors to deliver underperformance. In Europe, High Dividend and Value also dominated the field. Valuations rebounded in Q4 In Q4 2022, valuations rebounded across the board on the back of markets’ positive performance. Small Caps saw the largest increases with +1.7 in Global and European equities and +2.2 in US equities. European and Emerging markets remain quite cheap, leading to factors being cheap as well. Emerging market value is currently priced at a 4.9 P/E Ratio. Looking forward to 2023, recession risk is continuing to rise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning of a recession in the US, a deep slowdown in Europe, and a drawn-out recession in the United Kingdom. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above targets. The Federal Reserve made clear in its December meeting that ‘substantially’ more progress will need to happen on the inflation front before hiking stops. The European Central Bank (ECB) projections show inflation is unlikely to reach the 2% target until late 2025, leading to a hawkish turn there as well. The Bank of Japan also surprised markets in December with its own hawkish move. Overall, as we transition to 2023, three questions still remain unanswered from 2022: 1) how sticky will the underlying inflation be 2) how intense will the recession be 3) will we find a solution to Europe’s energy crisis? With markets facing the same issues in 2023 that they faced in the second half of 2022, we continue to tilt toward the strategies that delivered for investors in 2022, that is, High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Please note: World is proxied by MSCI World net TR Index. US is proxied by MSCI USA net TR Index. Europe is proxied by MSCI Europe net TR Index. Emerging Markets is proxied by MSCI Emerging Markets net TR Index. Minimum volatility is proxied by the relevant MSCI Min Volatility net total return index. Quality is proxied by the relevant MSCI Quality net total return index. Momentum is proxied by the relevant MSCI Momentum net total return index. High Dividend is proxied by the relevant MSCI High Dividend net total return index. Size is proxied by the relevant MSCI Small Cap net total return index. Value is proxied by the relevant MSCI Enhanced Value net total return index. WisdomTree Quality is proxied by the relevant WisdomTree Quality Dividend Growth Index.
NASDAQ:NQFFUSHY
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
Cloud computing: what are the big players telling us?Each earnings season, we become accustomed to certain patterns. One pattern involves the biggest tech companies reporting earnings before many other smaller and medium sized firms. In what we know is a very difficult economic backdrop, it’s important to look for signals that some of the world’s largest companies are giving us. Additionally, since Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud are three of the world’s largest providers of public cloud infrastructure, it’s possible that these reports contain details about how companies are spending more broadly on technology. Combining the annual revenues of just these businesses (recognising that they are each part of larger companies) we see spending on cloud infrastructure annually in the hundreds of billions of dollars. We believe that there is a difference between these three large public-cloud infrastructure providers and the much greater number of far smaller Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) providers. These three firms, for instance, are a major part of most market capitalisation-weighted benchmark indices. They are at a point in their life cycles where they should exhibit sensitivity to broad, global economic activity and growth expectations. What can they tell us? The most important thing that we think the results of the big public-cloud providers can tell us regards trends in broad-based information technology spending on cloud computing. Eventually, the enterprise market will have ‘moved to the cloud’ and the growth rates of these large players should drop significantly. We are not yet there so, in this type of environment, we really want to see the resilience of cloud spending in the face of a tougher economic backdrop. There haven’t been that many economic slowdowns since the genesis of the cloud business model, and there certainly haven’t been sustained periods of inflation or central bank tightening. What don’t they tell us? The smaller SaaS providers tend to help their customers with much more specific business initiatives. It may be accounting, compliance, cybersecurity, data analysis…the list is becoming endless. These companies are more idiosyncratic, in that their individual results do not translate to broad trends as clearly as the biggest company results would. However, we might see strong spending in cybersecurity, for example, and this may not be as clearly visible in the results of the biggest companies. Our initial sense is that it is important to remember that, in many cases, businesses transitioning to the cloud is done to create efficiency and to accomplish more while investing either less time, less money or less of both. We think that this overall trend will continue, but it likely won’t continue at the rates seen in recent years if the global backdrop is characterised by a deteriorating economic picture. It’s also the case that many cloud-focused companies have seen their share prices drop significantly in 2022. This doesn’t mean that all the risk is ‘priced-in’ by any means, but it does tell us that the valuation risk of the space is lower relative to the much higher valuations seen towards the end of 2021. Microsoft Microsoft is a leader in the cloud space, and it’s important to note that the Azure infrastructure platform is one piece of the overall ‘Intelligent Cloud’ effort. Most attention goes to the year-over-year revenue growth rates, so it is instructive to first ground any discussion in some of the recent quarterly figures, which are shown in year-over-year terms for Azure specifically below1: 30 September 2021: 50% 31 December 2021: 46% 31 March 2022: 46% 30 June 2022: 40% 30 September 2022: 35% It also helps to look at the overall revenue base to help ground any further thoughts about reasonable growth. While the quarterly results do look at more than the pure Azure revenues, broadening the picture to ‘Intelligent Cloud’, we see that Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud revenue was $16.91 billion as of 30 September 2021, and that this figure increased to $20.33 billion as of 30 September 2022. This is a quarterly figure, and it is beginning to be quite large, so part of the growth rate deceleration that we may be seeing could be attributed to the size and scale of these figures. Analysts are seeing Azure customers very focused on optimising their cloud workloads, which helps them to save money, and it’s also the case that there is evidence that customers are pausing on new workloads. It is reasonable to think that, in an environment of slower economic growth, consumption-based business models like public cloud infrastructure may indicate shifts in customer-behaviour toward more essential workloads2. Amazon Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the leading public cloud infrastructure platform based on market share, often cited as having a figure around 40% of the total. If we consider the year-over-year growth rates from recent quarters3: 30 September 2021: 39%. 31 December 2021: 40% 31 March 2022: 37% 30 June 2022: 33% 30 September 2022: 27% Similar to the case of Microsoft, we are seeing decelerating growth rates. However, if we look to 30 September 2021, the trailing 12-month net sales for AWS was at $57.2 billion, and this same figure as of 30 September 2022 is $76.5 billion. These are getting to be quite large numbers. Also similar to the story with Microsoft, enterprise cloud customers are looking to reduce costs within the AWS ecosystem. Analysts are continuing to note the long-term potential and how this differs from the situation within the shorter-term macroeconomic backdrop4. Alphabet—Google Cloud in focus Google Cloud, within Alphabet, does trail both Microsoft Azure and AWS in terms of market share, but Alphabet as a whole runs a formidable, cash-rich business, so they have been known to make large, splashy deals to gain high-profile cloud customers. If we note the year-over-year growth figures5: 30 September 2021: 45% 31 December 2021: 45% 31 March 2022: 44% 30 June 2022: 36% 30 September 2022: 38% The growth rates are similar to what we noted with Microsoft Azure and AWS, but the dollar figures are much lower. As of 30 September 2021, the quarterly revenue from Google Cloud was reported at $4.99 billion, and then as of 30 September 2022, this figure had grown to $6.87 billion. It is notable that, while Microsoft and Amazon saw quarter-to-quarter decelerations in growth rates, Google Cloud is cited as a bright spot of growth acceleration in Alphabet’s results. However, we note that Alphabet’s core business was certainly not immune to deteriorating economic conditions, and that the revenue figures are growing from a smaller overall base. Conclusion: the economy matters but this is not the year 2000 The primary conclusion that we reach at this point is that economic conditions do matter for cloud computing companies. We have already seen their share price performance for 2022; it is crystal clear that market participants have re-assessed the appropriate valuation multiples for these firms considering higher inflation and higher interest rates. We will be watching closely to see how much revenue growth these companies can maintain as they continue to report earnings for the period ended 30 September 2022. The biggest companies, so far, have reported a range of 27% to 38%. It clearly isn’t the euphoric environment of 2020 any longer, but we don’t think it appropriate to say a ‘tech bubble is bursting’ either. Sources 1 Source: Microsoft’s First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Results, 25 October 2022. Revenue figures presented in the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) format. 2 Source: Sills, Brad & Adam Bergere. “Expected Azure decel likely temporary, cyclical; model largely derisked.” Bank of America Securities. 26 October 2022. 3 Sources: Amazon’s Quarterly Earnings Conference Call Slides for the specific periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. The revenue growth figure is taken as the year-over-year growth without foreign exchange adjustment. 4 Source: Post, Justin & Michael McGovern. “Expecting Less this Holiday.” Bank of America Securities. 28 October 2022. 5 Sources: Alphabet’s Quarterly Earnings Announcements which specify the revenues from different business units on a quarterly basis for the periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. Percentage growth is calculated directly from the figures that Alphabet reports for Google Cloud, all in USD terms.
NASDAQ:EMCLOUD
by aneekaguptaWTE
Tesla Should Bottom Out SoonDespite the market correction in TSLA shares, the company still has a bright future. * substantial revenue growth * more attractive valuation, ~38x earnings vs triple digit PE ratios formerly * aggressive pace of innovation for batteries, self driving, trucks and semis. * less expensive vehicles than previously produced, so more consumers can afford Teslas * Cyber Truck rollout likely in 2023. These next few years will likely be years of growth for the company into new areas of the market, as well as continued innovation for new types of electric vehicles, battery technology and self driving technology. The stock price is still in a power down trend but it's approaching long term up trend support and given the bright outlook of this maturing company, I expect it will hold if tested. The path of least resistance appears to be up for the years to come. This correction has been a healthy cleansing of the shareholder base so new hands can come in at better valuations.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by chriscase
Investing in exercise bicycles...?People can say Peleton is sooo much more than an exercise bike. I don't disagree, however, it's core business and most valuable product is it's bike. Sure, subscriptions and add-ons bring in lots of cash, but you won't get any of that subscription money if your target market is as small as this one's is. I say that because you have to be financially in a decent position in life to even afford a service like Peleton, and I just don't buy into the idea that Amazon or Apple or some big tech will come along and eat this company. I think they have a better ability to scale the bikes and services making PTON a buyout in my opinion. Who says the acquiring tech company won't pay them $5/share? Buyer's beware.
NASDAQ:PTON
by DontSlamTheDoor
NIO rising from its downtrend.NIO double-bottomed in late December, this past Monday, and also back in November at the same level now drawn onto the chart in green. It is now above the POC line on the long-term volume profile suggests it was pushed there by buying pressure exceeding selling. Fundamentally, NIO is strong in China, TSLA lowered its price to be competitive and maintain market share. Easing of COVID lockdowns has helped boost production. Price has moved above the SMA 100 and SMA 300 on the rising uptrend. This appears to be a long trade setup.
NYSE:NIOLong
by AwesomeAvani
1