Gold price analysis September 4☘️Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices bounced from multi-day lows but remained below the $2,500 mark amid renewed buying in the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. However, ongoing geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) impending rate cut could support the yellow metal in the near term. Later on Wednesday, JOLTS Job Openings and the Fed Beige Book will be released. Investors will be closely watching Friday’s highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for August, which could determine the size and pace of a potential rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. If the report shows a weaker-than-expected reading, it could fuel speculation of a US recession and a faster rate cut by the Fed. This in turn could boost the precious metal further as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold.
☘️Technical Analysis
At the end of the trading session, gold was booked by investors as it was pushed up from the beginning of the session, causing gold to fall from 2497 to 2487. The 2485 price zone became an important zone when the European session jumped in. The price is approaching this zone for those who can execute the BUY scalp signal. This week's trend will continue to decrease in price until the Nonfarm data is released to shape the current gold trend. A deep pullback to the lows is seen as an opportunity to buy long term when interest rates fall. Today, pay attention to the 2461 and 2472 zones for a BUY strategy.
Resistance: 2505 - 2509 - 2515 - 2524 - 2535
Support: 2491 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440
SELL price zone 2513 - 2515 stoploss 2518
SELL price zone 2505 - 2507 stoploss 2511
BUY price zone 2474 - 2472 stoploss 2469
BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
Goldtradingstrategy
9.4 Gold short-term operation strategyGold 2480 broke as expected.
The US dollar rose 0.26% during the week, hitting a two-week high of 101.9. Affected by the surge in the US dollar index, the price of gold hit a new low of more than a week to around 2473 yesterday. However, the poor performance of the US ISM manufacturing PMI data dragged down the US bond yields, providing support for the gold price. It rebounded slightly in the late trading, and the daily line closed with a small negative column with a long upper and lower lead.
The market is waiting for the US non-farm employment data, which may determine the scale of the possible interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.
After the US holiday on Monday, gold finally broke out on Tuesday, breaking through 2480 all the way during the session and reaching the 2473 line. As we said, the market reached 2480. The 2502 short order given yesterday was basically the highest short order of the day, and once won 22 points of profit.
The recent market is actually a market for making money. As long as gold rebounds, you can short it. The current price is more stimulated by the news, and it will not be supported for long. At present, 2480 has been broken. The area of 2473-74 is a strong support. If it breaks down, it will go to the 2460 line. Based on the current trend, there is still a high probability. The 4-hour trend shows that the downward channel has been opened. If it rebounds around 2500 today, you can participate in short orders.
Detailed intraday operation strategy:
Short at 2505, defend at 2513, target 2490-2480
Buy at 2480, defend at 2473, target 2500-2505
9.4 Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe U.S. market broke the bottom and reversed, with three negative daily lines, and the price completely broke the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages.
2490 did not hold, but this decline was not restless either.
1. They all fell first in the Asian market.
2. The European market is still rebounding and rising, forming an illusion of support.
3. The U.S. market fell 6-8 points before the intraday low, and the drop at this point basically determined the U.S. market to retreat.
4. The U.S. market continued to counterattack the 2502 line, which was considered a shock. It broke the intraday decline and rebounded 618, and also broke the top-bottom conversion level.
5. After the US market broke through the bottom, the difference was slightly 2470-1, the previous low.
6. It pulled back upward in the early morning, touching the intraday drop of 618 at the 2494 line.
From this we can see several points:
(1), it fell in a cycle in the morning.
(2) Oscillating retracement, the strength of the rebound is also OK. Although the decline is large, it can be closed up, and it is not an extremely weak decline.
(3) The daily rhythm is three Yin, reaching the edge of the maximum correction. Today's market should turn positive. This pattern, if there is a swallowing decline, the overall weakness will be weak, but this constitutes that it should still be a bull wash.
Therefore, in terms of operation:
You can get rid of the cycle and bet on the retracement first. The resistance level is 2492, which is the 618 position of yesterday's decline and rebound. If it breaks 2502, it will lose money and look at the 2483-4 line.
Pay attention to two points: if it falls in the morning, you should sell in the afternoon.
In addition, if the morning does not fall to the target level, it will break the high in the afternoon and the short will be evacuated.
There will be a cycle in the afternoon, and the European session will rise.
If the cycle in the afternoon is stuck, if it touches the 2483-4 line, it will be long, and the loss will be 73. Look for the intraday European session to pull up. The extreme retracement long position is 2481.5, which is the 618 position of the rebound and rise. But if the market resists the decline in the morning, it will be more aggressive in the afternoon, and the market will be above 2500.
GOLD SELL Idea | $2480-2435 expected- Gold prices remained close to their recent all-time highs last week, driven by strong market sentiment and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This optimism follows comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested a potential policy shift, fueling speculation that the Fed may reduce rates by 25 basis points, with some possibility of a 50-basis-point cut. This expectation has been a key factor in sustaining gold’s rally.
- On Friday, gold prices experienced a slight decline due to profit-taking after the release of U.S. inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by 0.2% in July, met expectations and confirmed that inflation is no longer the Fed's main concern. Instead, the Fed is focusing on unemployment and economic growth, with revised Q2 GDP growth of 3% and declining jobless claims reducing fears of a recession.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, have also increased demand for gold as a safe haven. Central banks have continued to purchase gold, further supporting prices, with some analysts predicting that gold could approach $3,000 by the end of the year.
- Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will be crucial in determining the Fed's next move. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could increase the likelihood of a larger rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher. However, traders should be cautious of potential risks, such as weak physical demand in major Asian markets like China and the fact that many investors are already heavily positioned in gold, which could limit further gains.
XAUUSD: 3/9 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2550, support below 2450
Four-hour resistance 2501, support below 2490
Gold operation suggestions: Yesterday, gold fell rapidly downward in the Asian session, pierced the 2500 mark and quickly rebounded near the 2490 mark, and fell into a shock consolidation. In the European session, it once rebounded upward and pierced the 2507 mark, suppressed and fell into a sideways shock. Because the NY market was closed yesterday, it ran in a narrow range. The overall price showed a shock consolidation below the 2515 mark. Gold still has a multiple top structure in 4 hours. The moving average resistance has now moved down to the line near 2507. Gold rebounded below 2507 and continued to be short at highs. Gold shorts have not ended yet. Gold rebounds are opportunities for shorts. Gold is now building a top structure. Once formed, the decline of gold has just begun.
From the 4-hour analysis, today's upper resistance focuses on the opening of yesterday's decline at 2507-12. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to fall back. The lower target continues to look at a new low. The short-term gold price long and short strength watershed focuses on the 2515 mark. Before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position, maintain a short-selling strategy.
BUY:2490near SL:2486
SELL:2508near SL:2511
SELL:2525near SL:2529
The strategy only provides trading directions.
Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see update on our 1H chart idea, which has been playing out level to level.
Yesterday on our 4H chart update we stated that our 1H chart had a lock below opening the lower range. This was the 2498 bearish target, which was hit and followed with a cross and lock opening the retracement range 2484. This was also hit perfectly and gave the perfect bounce, as part of our plans to buy dips from the weighted levels.
We currently still have a gap above at 2509 and will only target this if the lower weighted levels are rejected with no further locks. Otherwise we are happy to track the movement down and catch the buys from the weighted level bounces. We will also keep in mind that a cross and lock below the retracement range will open the swing range for the extended bounce.
Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2509
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2509 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2524
2535
BEARISH TARGETS
2498 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2498 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2484 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2484 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2472 - 2461
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD: Sell at 2505-2510 resistance zone, target 2490-2480Yesterday was Labor Day in the United States. The amplitude of gold was very small and we did not participate in any transactions. Today the market is back on track and it is time to open our transactions!
Gold fundamentals:
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, and risk aversion has rekindled.
Due to the recent positive economic data, the U.S. dollar index continues to rebound, and the ISM manufacturing PMI for August to be released today is expected to rise slightly to 47.5 from 46.8 in July, indicating that the manufacturing industry is recovering moderately, which will continue to support the U.S. dollar. rebound, gold falls.
In addition, the market expects that the United States will create 163,000 new jobs in August and the unemployment rate is also expected to rise to 4.2%. This reflects strong economic fundamentals and further boosts the dollar.
Gold technical aspect:
Judging from the Fibonacci retracement of the decline between the highest point of 2528 and the lowest point of 2490, 2505 is 0.618 and 2510 is 0.5, so this range is the resistance to gold's rebound.
Trading strategy:
Since the direction is clear now and 2505-2510 is the resistance area, we can sell in this range.
XAU/USD 03 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback.
Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation
Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price is stuck within an internal range and is most probably awaiting a catalyst (macroeconomic or geopolitical)
Technically price should target weak internal low and is currently reacting at premium of internal 50% EQ, however, price has ben printing low volume bars with no clear internal range direction.
Intraday expectation: Price is in premium of internal 50% EQ with strong high remaining protected. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong internal high.
M15 Chart:
Gold entered into a bearish structure after breaking channelHello Traders
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9.3 Gold short-term operation strategyAt the beginning of the Asian session on Tuesday (September 3), spot gold 4 hovered below the 2500 mark and is currently trading around 2495 US dollars per ounce. Due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the price of gold fell to the lowest point in more than a week near 2489 on Monday, but then rebounded to around 2507 yuan and closed at 2499, with a small negative column with upper and lower leads on the daily line.
During the US holiday, the overall volatility of gold was small yesterday, and the intraday short-term was still dominated by fluctuations. Although the gold price fell below the 2493 support during the day, it quickly recovered, but the rebound strength was still weak, especially the hourly line. After a small rebound in the white plate, it fell all the way, with basically no rebound strength. In the morning, it came to 2495 again. This trend, from the perspective of the day, will definitely continue to decline, and 2480 is expected to be reached.
Gold is now in a multiple top structure above, and the trend of the hourly line is obviously falling. The gold short has not ended yet. The rebound of gold is an opportunity for the short. Gold is now building a top structure. Once formed, the decline of gold has just begun. Today, we are still shorting near the rebound of 2505, which is the starting point of the hourly line decline.
Detailed intraday operation strategy:
Short gold at 2505, defense 2512, target 2490-2480
9.3 Gold short-term operation strategyGold fluctuates to welcome non-farm payrolls
Gold fell in the Asian session on Monday, rebounded in the European session in the afternoon, rebounded slightly in the US session in the evening, closed early in the morning, and finally made profits twice. The daily line closed with a small cross Yin pattern. The daily line has been mainly oscillating in recent times
Gold bottomed out and rebounded in the Asian session on Tuesday. The 4H closed with a small Yin at 10 o'clock. From the current pattern, gold still has the momentum to fall. In terms of operation, pay attention to the 2480-2482 range. Go long for the first time it touches and look for a rebound. Other positions are arranged on the spot.
Today's PMI data will also be focused on
On September 3, the upward point is 2480-2482, long, protect 2474, and target 2490, 2498
Downward point is 2510-2512, short, protect 2515, target 2500 2495
Gold Price Hover NearRecord Highs Ahead of Key Labor Market Data the price of gold is expected to continue its soft uptrend. According to recent analyses, gold is currently in a rising channel pattern, indicating a potential for further gains if it maintains its upward momentum. This soft uptrend is supported by factors such as geopolitical tensions and rising real inflation, which are considered favorable for gold as a safe-haven asset.
The predictions suggest that gold might experience a slight increase, moving within a range of $2,491 to $2,643 per ounce throughout the day
This Simple Strategy Could Make You a Fortune in the Gold Marketprice action of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) in relation to the trendlines and patterns indicated.
Chart Analysis
1. Weekly Flag Trendline:
- The first chart shows a trendline forming a "flag" pattern on a higher time frame (possibly weekly or daily). This flag appears to be a bullish continuation pattern, indicating that after the consolidation within the flag, the price might continue in the direction of the prior trend, which seems to be up.
2. Price Action Inside the Flag:
- Within the flag, there is a period of consolidation marked by the parallel trendlines. The price has been respecting these lines, creating higher lows and lower highs, indicating indecision or preparation for a breakout.
3. Potential Breakout Zones:
- Key breakout zones are marked by the upper resistance of the flag pattern around the 2,530 level and the lower support trendline of the flag around the 2,470 level. A breakout above the upper resistance could signal a continuation of the prior uptrend, while a break below the lower support could indicate a reversal or deeper pullback.
4. Smaller Patterns:
- On the second chart (1-hour time frame), there's a more detailed view of recent price action with a potential bearish flag or pennant forming, suggesting a temporary pullback or consolidation within the larger flag. This smaller pattern appears to be within a trading range bounded by the horizontal support and resistance levels.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- The charts show horizontal support around the 2,433.301 level, which aligns with a historical low that could serve as a significant support level. Similarly, the resistance level is around 2,530, where the price has repeatedly failed to break above.
6. Current Market Context:
- The price is currently hovering around 2,497, near the middle of the trading range, suggesting indecision. This midpoint could be a neutral zone where the price could move in either direction based on upcoming market momentum or news.
Trading Strategy and Considerations
- Entry Points:
- If considering a bullish scenario, a long entry could be planned near the lower support line of the flag, around 2,470, with a stop loss slightly below the flag's support to manage risk. A breakout above the 2,530 resistance could also provide a good entry point for a continuation of the uptrend.
- For a bearish scenario, a short entry could be considered if the price breaks below the 2,470 support level, confirming a breakdown from the flag pattern.
- Risk Management:
- The proximity of the price to both upper and lower boundaries of the flag pattern provides clear levels for stop placement. This helps in managing risk effectively, keeping losses contained if the trade goes against the initial bias.
- Monitoring Price Action:
- Watch for potential breakouts from the smaller patterns within the flag, as these could provide early signals of the larger move's direction. It would also be essential to keep an eye on volume changes, as increased volume could confirm the validity of a breakout or breakdown.
By aligning your trades with these patterns and key levels, you can take advantage of the potential setups provided by the price action within these consolidating formations. Ensure to adapt to new market conditions and stay disciplined in executing your trading plan.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our 4H chart idea playing out inline with our plans to buy dips.
Price is still playing between two weighted levels. We had the support target at 2492 hit and complete perfectly with no cross and lock below the level confirming the rejection and providing the bounce.
We currently have a gap open above at 2519 and will need ema5 cross and lock above 2519 to open the range above or a failure to test and break 2519 will see a re-test at 2492 and a further cross and lock below 2492 will open the range below.
We need to also keep in mind the 1H chart has an open gap below from ema5 lock and further movement down is possible but we also need to keep in mind the US holiday today will skew that data and will need tomorrows data to assess the range .
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2519
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2519 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2536
POTENTIALLY 2550
BEARISH TARGETS
2492 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2492 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2468
2438
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2438 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2416 - 2389
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD: Wait for a rebound and choose to sell at a high levelLast Friday, as the performance of the US PCE data did not support the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point interest rate cut, the US dollar index rebounded and gold investors took profits, which caused the gold price to fall directly below the 2,500 round number mark. Considering that the U.S. market is closed today, the market fluctuations will not be too large, so we mainly do range-based sell-high and buy-low transactions.
Judging from the Fibonacci retracement indicator of this decline, the upper resistance is mainly in the 2504-2510 area. If the level is broken here, the gold price will return to the high area again and continue to try to set a new high, but this may be difficult today. Appear. The lower support is mainly in the early intensive support area 2470-2480.
So my strategy today is to sell high and buy low in this area. The gold price is now around 2500 points. If it continues to rise to the 2504-2510 area later, I will choose to sell first.
Today is not a major trading day because the U.S. market is closed. There will be multiple major data release days in the next few days this week. This is the key point. Everyone can relax today. We will trade if we have the opportunity. If there is no opportunity, we will not trade.
Resistance area: 2504-2510
Support area: 2480-2470
9.2 Gold short-term operation strategyGold fluctuates, short-term bullish ideas remain unchanged
Today is currently successful. Due to the Labor Day in the United States, the market fluctuates in the range of 2490-2508. Go long in the morning and leave with a profit of 4 points. In terms of trend, the overall trend is still short-term bullish. After falling back, it stands on 2500 again. Bulls are dominant. Short-term bullish operations are still in place. Go long around 2496, stop loss at 2488, and stop profit at 2508-2516. Pay attention to risks.
Trading ideas: Go long around 2496, stop loss at 2488, and profit at 2508/2516
The above suggestions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading
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gold outlook🟠 Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Analysis: Key Levels & Potential Movements
The 4-hour chart for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) provides a comprehensive look at the market's behavior over the past few weeks.
- 4H Upward Trendline: This trendline has been respected multiple times, with at least four price touches, indicating its significance in the market. However, keep in mind that even strong trendlines can break.
- Sideways Market (20th Aug - 30th Aug): After a strong upward move, the market entered a consolidation phase, trading sideways within a defined range. This often indicates indecision, as buyers and sellers struggle for control.
- Break of the Sideways Market (30th Aug): On the 30th of August, we saw a significant break below the sideways range, suggesting that the bears might be gaining control.
Potential Movements:
- Upward: If the market manages to recover above the broken trendline and retests the upper levels, this could signal a continuation of the previous upward trend.
- Downward: Conversely, a failure to reclaim the trendline, coupled with continued selling pressure, might confirm a bearish movement, with the possibility of further decline.
Remember, anything can happen in the market. It's crucial to wait for clear confirmations before entering a trade. Stay alert and be ready to adapt to the next move!
gold sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade