XAUUSD - Longs only for nowThere are couple of long levels I will be watching closely!! 2570 & 2559.. Currently, 2578 level is holding.. There is also a possibility that it may not break below 2578, and goes higher from here!!
Gold is due for a little pullback, but not until this weeks FOMC. I will try to look for selling opportunity only after the FOMC meeting..
Goldtradingstrategy
9.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsIn the four-hour chart, the price recovered the upper line and ran below the upper line. The short-term support is at the acceleration line 2573. If it breaks down here, it also indicates that the lower line of the hourly chart will break. Once it breaks, it will resonate downward, at least testing the support of the 2562-50 line. Secondly, from the four-hour moving average chart, the 5-10-day dead cross is downward, and the auxiliary indicator MACD is dead cross at a high level. The hourly chart counterattacks the upper line and turns short for the second time, which is the best time to short, and it is also a reasonable position to reduce positions. Once it breaks down, the overnight closing price of 2579-80 is basically rebounded, which is to add shorts. So as long as you hold 2590 to see that the adjustment remains unchanged, wait for 2600 or above after the breakthrough to make arrangements.
Strategy:
2585-88 area short, loss 92, look at 73-68-62-50. Break down 73 and rebound 80 and short loss 85
GOLD: The 2570-2580 area is likely to be a stage high pointGold finally ended the suppression of nearly a month yesterday, breaking through 2530 in one fell swoop, and the latest high reached 2572.
I mentioned in yesterday's article that if gold does not set a new high in the short term, it may go down, but I didn't expect the impact to be so strong, much more violent than I expected.
Yesterday, my Sell position was still held, with a small position at 2543 and an increase at 2550. Now the price has stabilized around 2570. I am going to add a little more, pull the average price appropriately, and continue to hold a bearish view.
In my opinion, it is impossible to keep setting new highs. From the previous high of 2530 to the current 2570, it has risen by more than 40 US dollars after setting a new high.
According to the previous rising pattern, each time the increase is 50$, so we can conclude that the high point of this rise is likely to be in the 2570-2580 area.
Therefore, we don’t have to worry too much about the short orders we hold. The price of gold is likely to start falling from the 2570-2580 area.
Next, I will continue to update my ideas in my channel for your reference. If you have any ideas, you can ask me directly.
Analysis of gold price trend on TuesdayGold fluctuated in a narrow range at highs on Tuesday, and the current price is around 2583. Gold prices rose slightly on Monday, hitting a record high of 2590, helped by a weaker dollar and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will announce a sharp interest rate cut at this week's policy meeting! Although there were some short-term profit-taking of long orders at high levels, the gold price closed near the historical high!
The US dollar index continued to fall on Monday, which continued to provide support for gold prices. However, it should be reminded that if the US dollar index can hold the 100.50 first-line support (the US dollar index has rebounded after receiving support near this position many times in the past year or so), gold may usher in a correction. The global central bank has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, which also provides support for gold prices. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, although ECB President Lagarde suppressed expectations of lowering borrowing costs again next month.
The "horror data" will be released this trading day-the monthly rate of US retail sales in August, which investors need to pay close attention to. The current market expectation is -0.2%, and the previous value is 1%. This expectation is slightly biased towards supporting gold prices before the data is released. In addition to the "horror data", pay attention to the changes in market expectations for the Fed's decision and news related to the geopolitical situation.
Technical aspect
There has been no major change in the technical aspect. At the beginning of the week, the Asian session rose around 2580. After a small high in the afternoon, there was no large-scale increase. After the overbought in the small cycle four-hour chart and hourly chart, the price formed a high-rise and fell back. The entire trend of the US market formed a 77-90 range adjustment at the high level of the consolidation triangle. It is cold at high places. Although the trend has not changed, we must always pay attention to the emergence of technical callbacks and repairs. Therefore, long-term long positions have turned into short-term long positions, and strict risk control. Pay attention to the break direction of the 77/90 range during the day.
Trading strategy:
2573-2575 long, stop loss 2564, target 2590-2600;
2593-2595 short, stop loss 2606, target 2580-2570;
9.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsAfter rising for three consecutive trading days, the price of gold rose again yesterday to a record high of $2,589 per ounce, close to the $2,600 mark, but it did not break through again. After encountering resistance and retreating, the final price closed at around $2,582. Overall, it still maintained a high level of consolidation.
There is no doubt that the rise in gold prices for three consecutive trading days has already indicated that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates, and it also indicates that the expectation of further interest rate cuts is in place. The market is concerned about how many basis points the interest rate cut will be, which is not so important because the trends of various varieties are digested in advance.
Yesterday, the price of gold rose to $2,589, and then encountered resistance and retreated. The daily line recorded a small positive cross star. The current price remains above the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. The moving averages of each period are arranged in a bullish pattern. The Bollinger Bands remain open as a whole. The MACD double lines rise, and the red kinetic energy column increases, which is in line with the development of the K-line. At present, the daily line still tends to be bullish.
Since technical indicators have a lag, it will be too late to wait until the price retreats or turns to short. Yesterday's high of $2589 is effective pressure. Looking further up is the $2600 mark, $2606. It is uncertain whether it can be reached. If it can be reached, you can intervene to short and wait for a retracement. The primary support below (short-term target) is $2560.
Today's short-term operation strategy;
Sell at 2585, stop loss at 2590
Buy at 2555, stop loss at 2550
Gold Next MoveGo through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly.
Resistance- 2589-2591
Resistance-2612-2616
Support- 2571-2565
Support- 2551-2555
Support- 2541-2545
Strong support area- 2531-2535
Gold Signal Daiky for the week
Current price- 2583.5
"if Price stays below 2600, then next target is 2564, 2552 and 2540 and above that 2605, 2618"
Advice-For Buying
Best buying area= 2535-2540
For selling
Best selling area= 2600-2616-2630
-POSSIBILITY-1
If 2571 break and sustain then you can sell gold with retest target will be 2545-2535
-POSSIBILITY-2
If it breaks 2591 and sustains then you can sell gold with retest target will be 2616-2630
What's Next For Gold?Getting back to the charts after a lot of travel. Here is a gift to trading community from me while I get back into the grind. Gold is setting up a tricky move after a lot of sharp repricing. I expect yesterday's high to be taken and then a movement lower. Prices listed on the chart.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Slow start to the week with ranging movement following on from the breakout last week into this ATH range.
However, as analysed we got the first Bullish target hit today at 2581 during Tokyo session. We now have a ema5 lock above 2581 opening upto 2591, which gave just over 40 pips and remains open. We need to also keep in mind the Bearish gap below at 2567.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We are taking extra caution with our buys in this new range, as bigger corrections are likely.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2581 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2581 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2591
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2591 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2603
POTENTIALLY 2615
BEARISH TARGETS
2567
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2567 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2554 - 2538
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2538 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2516 - 2506
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
9.17 Gold Short-term Operation GuideAfter gold hit the high point of 2580-90 last week, it basically maintained a consolidation trend at the opening of this Monday. As of now, it is still above 2582 as the high point, and it is consolidating in the range of 70-90.
At present, many people think that the interest rate decision on Thursday will be a node, but not. I think the GDP data will be a window for a change.
Then, institutions may take advantage of the opportunity to buy and pull up again.
2580 is also a support in the 4-hour chart of gold. If it falls below the moving average support here, it is likely to test 2855-50 later.
Gold is in the bullish direction after correcting the supportHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today Gold analysis 👆
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This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
9.16 Gold Short-term Operation GuideOn Friday, gold rose directly along the 2556 line in the early trading, rose to the 73 line in the European trading, and then fell back. In the evening, it rose again to the 80 line and then fell back. It hit a high of 86 in the late trading and then fell back slightly. Finally, the daily chart closed at 2579 with a big positive line.
Looking back at Friday, the price basically went up in a step-by-step manner. There were corresponding adjustments at each suppression point, but the overall trend was still dominated by bulls. The cyclical double positive continued in terms of form. From the current market, the trend remains unchanged, but the market does not only rise but not fall. If we look at the symmetrical cycle of the form, today's expected rise and fall will close in the negative. However, the market broke through the big positive line last week, and it is not realistic to directly reverse the trend in the short term. The previous platform consolidation has become an important support for the re-upward movement. The daily chart reaches the upper acceleration line suppression area, followed by the oblique pressure of 2597. After the four-hour shock to the breakthrough of the upper line and the acceleration line, the short-term indicators have been seriously overbought, so today I am optimistic about the rise and fall, and the lower 30-minute lower line on Friday formed support for the upward movement. Today, the key support is here on the hourly chart lower line, followed by the four-hour upper line, so today's operation is long first and then short.
Short term operations:
BUY 2567, loss 2561, target 2582-92-97.
SELL2597, loss 2603, target 2573-67-62-55
Historical high for pullback target 2500Historical high for pullback target 2500
Fundamental Analysis of XAU/USD
US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy:
Interest Rates: Higher US rates make the dollar stronger and reduce the attractiveness of gold, as the precious metal does not pay interest. Lower rates, on the contrary, weaken the dollar and increase demand for gold.
Inflation: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. Rising US inflation could push gold prices higher.
Economic and Geopolitical Risks:
Gold has traditionally been a safe haven asset, which is in demand during times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical crises. Examples include global financial crises, military conflicts, and tensions between countries.
US Dollar Rate:
Since gold is quoted in dollars, the movement of the USD rate directly affects the price of gold. A weak dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, which increases its demand.
Gold Demand:
Physical Demand: Industrial demand, jewelry demand, and investment demand (through gold ETFs) are also important for gold price dynamics.
Central Bank Stocks: When central banks buy or sell gold, it can have a significant impact on its price.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis
Technical analysis uses price charts and indicators. Some popular methods of analysis include:
Trend Lines:
Analyze the long-term trend (upward, downward, or sideways). If the trend is up, gold may continue to rise unless there are signs of a reversal.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Identify key levels where the price has bounced or held off previously. These levels can be used to decide when to enter or exit a position.
Indicators:
Moving Averages: Used to analyze the general direction of a trend. A crossover of a short moving average with a long moving average from top to bottom may indicate the beginning of a downtrend, and vice versa.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator: Shows whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Values above 70 indicate overbought, below 30 indicate oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Helps to assess changes in the strength and direction of a trend.
Candlestick patterns:
Some candlestick combinations, such as Hammer, Engulfing, or Doji, can signal a price reversal or continuation of the current trend.
Gold Thoughts 16-Sept-2024Happy New Week all, Kindly see my Gold thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
9.16 Gold Short-term Analysis GuideLast Friday, an article from the "Federal Reserve's mouthpiece" once again fueled speculation that the Fed might cut interest rates by 50 basis points at this week's policy meeting. The dollar index continued to fall and once lost the 101 mark, but recovered some of its losses during the U.S. trading session and finally closed down 0.13% at 101.10. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 3.657%; the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, finally closed at 3.595%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.72%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.54%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.65%. Trump Media closed up 7.62%.
Today's focus:
The eurozone will release the seasonally adjusted trade account for July;
The United States will release the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for September;
☆ Closed reminder: Today, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Seoul Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Stock Exchange
The market's expectations for the Fed's upcoming interest rate cut continue to heat up. , the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September 18 meeting to reach 43%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57%. This is the first possible rate cut by the Fed since 2020. The driving effect of the expectation of rate cuts on gold prices is obvious. The lower interest rate environment reduces the holding cost of gold and increases its attractiveness as a non-yielding asset.
Before the Fed meeting, gold prices usually show a trend of fluctuating higher. However, after the rate cut, gold prices may experience adjustments. Therefore, investors need to be vigilant about possible market reactions.
Monetary policy changes by major central banks around the world have an important impact on the gold market. The ECB's rate cut decision last Thursday reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold and further strengthened market expectations for loose policies. At the same time, U.S. inflation data has stabilized, providing the Fed with more room to consider rate cuts.
With the easing policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the bullish sentiment in the gold market has significantly increased. In addition, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the yen has further increased market interest in gold.
The strong performance of the gold market was also driven by fund inflows. Data shows that the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, have reached their highest level since January this year. The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that global physical gold ETFs attracted inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August, which further supported the rise in gold prices.
In addition, geopolitical risks are also an important factor in the rise in gold prices. Geopolitical tensions in major economies around the world have increased market uncertainty and further boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. These factors, including the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have prompted investors to put their money into gold to avoid potential risks.
XAUUSD - GOLD - Scalping Mode! 16th SeptLet's see what the market has to offer.
Disclaimer:
This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
The historic high in the value of gold. Where to next? The historic high in the value of gold. Where to next?
At the moment, the situation on the XAUUSD (gold vs. US dollar) market is showing interesting and volatile movements. In recent weeks, we have seen price fluctuations due to a number of factors such as changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, global economic instability and increased interest in safe assets amid geopolitical risks.
Gold prices often react to news about inflation and interest rates. When expectations of rising interest rates increase, this can put pressure on gold prices as precious metals do not generate interest income. However, when uncertainty in the economy or risks increase, investors seek safe haven assets such as gold, which usually drives prices higher.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK Hey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are in a new rage but just like last time we were able to generate accurate levels to use for the coming week.
We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2581 Goldturn resistance and 2567, as Goldturn support.
We currently have a gap above on market open at 2581 and below at 2567 and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2581
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2581 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2591
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2591 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2603
POTENTIALLY 2615
BEARISH TARGETS
2567
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2567 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2554 - 2538
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2538 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2516 - 2506
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM CHART UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see update on our daily chart structure that we have been tracking and trading successfully for a while now.
Last week we stated we stated that we still have the candle body close above 2521 for the gap to 2566 and we would need Ema5 lock to further confirm and strengthen this gap. Currently ema5 is playing just under it and we will continue to observe and update this.
- This has played out perfectly with 2566 now hit completing this target. We now have a candle body close above 2566 leaving a long term gap to 2608 and if we get a ema5 lock then this will further strengthen the gap.
We have to also keep in mind that we have a support range between 2566 - 2521 for longer range support areas to buy strategic dips, should the corrections take place before completing gaps above.
We will use smaller timeframe analysis and trading plans to navigate the range in true level to level fashion.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM CHART UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see update on our weekly chart idea and analysis that we have been tracking and trading for several months.
Previously we stated that we had the candle body close above 2505 leaving a gap to 2557. We also stated that we need to keep in mind that we have a ema5 detachment below highlighted on the chart with a circle for a possible correction area.
We then got the detachment touch below two weeks ago, followed with the bounce like we analysed. Last week the bounce completed the full range and hit our target at 2557 perfectly. Just amazing to see our analysis play out in true level to level fashion.
We also stated that all channels that break usually require the channel top to become support outside the channel for further continuations before new channels form and once again this played out like we analysed.
We now have a candle body close above 2557 leaving a long term Axis gap target to 2603, which we shared on this chart number of weeks back.
The new weekly candle will have a detachment below for correction range which will show up when market opens. Please note any corrections below that fail to provide support outside of the channel, means price breaks back into the channel, in which case the channel re-activates for trading and tracking level to level once again
Therefore, if we see a rejection before the gap and a break back into the channel then we will use the levels within the channel to provide the bounces, inline with our plans to buy dips in true level to level fashion, using our smaller time-frames keeping in mind the long range gap for the future..
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings, instead of chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold outlookPreviously Gold has made a new high in previous week now its all time high for the week is archived now in upcoming week gold can consolidate for the time being but as Feds rate cut is expected and gold can go for new high in upcoming week now as i am analyzing the pair we can expect a pull back to to its newly formed physiological support levels and can go further but as i said fed rate cut is expected gold can fly high and make new levels
GOLD - Bullish BreakoutGOLD has recently broken the RANGE it has been in for the last couple of weeks.
As you can see via the labels on the chart, GOLD initially produced multiple REJECTIONS from the RESISTANCE.
Eventually, the RESISTANCE was BROKEN, changing from high volume resistance bounces to low volume RANGING.
WE were in this RANGE for a couple of weeks, where I believe that GOLD was accumulating, ready to perform a BIG VOLUME move.
This has now come to fruition as the RANGE has been broken BULLISH, where it's begun to produce HIGH VOLUME candles.
I will be watching to see where it creates a rejection zone as GOLD is currently trading at ALL TIME HIGHS.
10:1 Risk-to-Reward Setup - Bull Flag Breakout with Multi-TimeThis trade setup shows a confluence of multiple factors, aligning with a high-probability approach. Here's the breakdown:
Bull Flag Breakout:
The trade initiates after identifying a bull flag, which is a common continuation pattern following an impulsive upward move. This flag signals consolidation before a further upward push. The breakout from the bull flag gives a strong entry point.
Entry Criteria:
The entry was placed at 2560.404, slightly above the breakout area, ensuring momentum confirmation.
A Stop-Loss (SL) of 30 pips was positioned below the structure, protecting the trade while allowing enough room for price fluctuations. This is crucial to avoid tight stops that may trigger prematurely.
Key Support/Resistance Levels:
5M Lower Time Frame (LTF) S/R: This level acts as a lower frame confirmation zone, ensuring support below the bull flag breakout.
15M Support/Resistance (S/R): The larger structure aligns with the 5-minute support, adding strength to the trade by recognizing that price is supported by multiple timeframes.
Target (TP) and Higher Time Frame (HTF) Confluence:
300 Pips TP is based on the HTF Trendline, offering a solid risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1. This suggests the trade is aligned with a broader market trend, increasing the probability of success.
Zone of Liquidity (LQZ):
5M LQZ represents a liquidity grab, further confirming that the market might push upwards after grabbing liquidity near support.
Key Confluences:
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Price action supports the move on both lower and higher timeframes.
Risk Management: A well-defined stop-loss ensures minimal risk with a substantial reward target.
Pattern Identification: The bull flag within the trend adds reliability, as flags in impulsive moves offer strong continuation signals.
This trade follows the "Rule of Three," where at least three confirmations (bull flag, multiple timeframe support, and risk/reward alignment) give the highest probability of success.