GOLD - Short term SELL ?As you may know, DXY movement will have a strong impact to GOLD, xxxUSD pair.
From H4 timeframe, we can see that DXY got breakout from strong resistance to upside. Meaning there will be a SELL pressure to GOLD, xxxUSD pair.
For GOLD, price got rejected as resistance + double top pattern got breakout.
We should consider to look for SELL entry in smaller time frame:
OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
Goldshort
GOLD H1 / SHORT TRADE ACTIVATED / STRATEGY CONFIRMED ✅Hello Traders!
In the previous analysis, I expected a retracement from the resistance level and I was looking for a short-trade from the OB.
Now we can see a very clear retracement. A good opportunity to execute short trades for scalpers or on small time frames.
Congrats to those who executed the trade.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
____________________________________
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www.tradingview.com
Will Gold collapse?We can see how clearly the price reacted to the Fibonacci levels, and now Gold is at an extreme level. I assume that 2023 was the best year for Gold. And in 2024, we can expect a drop to at least 745 level.
The next Fibo level is 385 but something tells me that the price will roll towards the low of 2000s - below 254.
And the most impossible scenario is when Gold will completely devalue (-27).
For several months now, I've been asking myself: what should happen globally in the world for the most stable investment instrument - Gold, to drop like a brick? I don't know. Write your ideas in comments 'what can cause drop of Gold?'.
Let's see what 2024 will bring us :)
GOLD GOING TOWARDS BUY CONFIRMGold price (XAU/USD) witnesses a sell-off after failing to reclaim the weekly high above $2,060. The precious metal drops as investors reconsider the timeframe in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) may reduce interest rates. This comes after the release of the sticky Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December, as well as hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials recalibrating broader market expectations.
XAUUSD GOING TOWARDS BUY (READ DESCRIPTION)Gold prices and the Nasdaq 100 could be at risk of a larger downward correction following the latest set of consumer price and unemployment claims figures released on Thursday. This means that new all-time highs for the precious metal and the technology index may have to wait a bit longer.
GOLD's Movement explainedSo what is up guys, I haven't had the opportunity to sit down and produce an analysis on gold over the last few days as I have been extremely busy working with students or other businesses that I run, I will admit my attention has been pulled away from the charts in the last few days but I am back and I am here for the day (I hope lol)
So looking at the monthly timeframe I can say that it still definitely is extremely bullish - there isn't anything that can convince me otherwise - See image below of the monthly timeframe
As I would mention in the image below I can't yet trust the monthly candle as it has about 20 days before it closes - meaning ANYTHING can happen between now and the next 20 days
I am skipping the weekly timeframe in this analysis as I don't think there is any information that I need from that timeframe that I cannot get on the daily - Looking at the daily timeframe we can see that it has had quite a few bearish days and moves in the last week
Now looking at the last 3 days or so, we can see that there are some wicks being thrown to the top side and I don't know about you but that doesn't give me confidence in looking for buys - why if I am looking for buys would I want to see data that suggests sells?
But it is interesting and I will tell you why - Why would the dealer be inducing sellers in a bull market? Let me tell you why I think this is the case
Who is the real target in a bull market? Buyers or sellers? Before you try to answer I want you to think who has more to gain. When you think about who has more to gain, you have to ask - does the dealer want this party to win? does he want this party to gain? Of course not. So in that light it is simple and easy to say that buyers would be the target right? Sellers would be taken out once the market resumes buying
But before it can resume buying the dealer needs to get rid of traders who bought - remember he doesn't want traders who are buying to gain anything.
So the next question is simple - Where are the buyers buying?
Lets look at the chart again and see if anything makes sense
When we look at the 4 hour time frame I am just trying to identify areas in which I feel the average retail trader may have felt safe to place a buy and I arrive at these zones circled in green, but why? These are low points that would have also made higher lows - which I am aware traders love using that B.S - Higher high and higher low to dictate whether or not they should buy.
If you realize I am using what I know other traders do in my analysis but I am not using that myself to place a trade - I said this before, I like Context, I want to understand what other people may be seeing so I can build out the picture as close to what it really is, you cannot do that when you look at the market one dimensionally.
But wait there is more
Is it at all possible that this bull trend is also now an additional induction to get traders to buy? I think so yes, it makes sense for the dealer to induce buyers to make them feel safe and add more buys
Buyers would feel more inclined to open bigger positions because the gold market is bullish overall so buys make sense. Interestingly enough buys are the right play I think but it isn't WHAT it is HOW.
This is why I think the seller induction of the higher timeframe right now make sense - get sellers to step in and push price lower and stop out the buyers induced to buy in these areas (green)
On the m15 timeframe I believe that sellers would have already been destroyed so the dealer is free to use that seller liquidity to push price lower as seen in the image below (turquoise)
Look at the previous tap on the trendline or the most recent low, I wouldn't be surprised if price stops there and bounces back up temporarily to further induce buyers before dropping lower to take out all buyers completely
I have an alert set at the low
Let me know what you think about this thought process
Don't boost if you didn't take the time to read and try to understand this entire analysis
OR
Boost if you did take the time to read and try to understand this entire analysis
I think trying to take a trade before I know what price is likely to do next is irresponsible of me. So I will be waiting
Have a great day folks
GOLD CPI CONFIRM TARGET TODAY The US Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise at an annual pace of 3.2% in December, a tad quicker than the 3.1% increase reported in November. The Core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is set to fall to 3.8% in the same period, compared with the previous growth of 4.0%.
Gold melting a little?In the final days in December gold's strength has started to weaken. Wednesday December 27th 2023 is the last high we saw gold peaking around 2088.41. A massive and consistent downtrend has come right after that with a clear formulated structure with lower-low's and lower-high's. Monday January 08th 2024 is when we saw a pull-back and momentum revitalize it's self with going stabilizing itself seeing more stride with it's price trying to gain value back to the upside. Yesterday Tuesday January 9th 2024 during New York session it's seemly lost it's momentum but we can see that Monday's New York session has made clean traffic with price to the upside which in turn will be great for pin pointing where gold will go.
*** KEY ANALYSIS ***
I'm looking for GOLD to break and CLOSE under 2023.83 on a 30M time frame. This will confirm more of a downtrend considering the clean traffic and move up from Monday New York session that had alot of volume
-- Close under my zone at 2023.83
Target 120 pts on candle break and close.
Stops: anywhere above opposite side of the zone at 2027.43
Gold: $2,025 - After US Inflation, What's Next?Gold: $2,025 - After US Inflation, What's Next?
Gold's short term prospects might be dependent on upcoming US inflation data for December. XAU/USD currently trades at $2,025, stepping back from an intraday high of $2,042.
On Thursday, the US will release the Consumer Price Index for December. The market is expecting a 0.3% monthly increase in Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, in line with November. If the monthly core CPI exceeds 0.5%, it could push up US yields and weigh on XAU/USD. Alternatively, a softer-than-expected CPI reading may keep expectations for a Federal Reserve policy shift alive and perhaps help keep gold above $2,020.
Technically, the 4-hour chart suggests a downside risk for gold, trading below its 20 Simple Moving Average at around $2,036. Conversely, the initial resistance for XAU/USD stands at $2050, where the 50- and 100-day SMAs are converging. The daily high on January 5 at $2063.98 might be the next level to keep an eye on to the upside.
Gold's DOWN cycle continues !! 1/9/2024⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
The price of gold (XAU/USD) is rebounding slightly below the mid-$2,000s in the early Asian session on Tuesday. There is a chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will prolong its cautious approach, which could lead to some selling pressure on gold in the short term. However, gold traders will primarily look to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday for new inspiration. Currently, the gold price is trading around $2,030, up 0.14% for the day.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
The downtrend is even more obvious, with the actions of some funds taking profits on Gold above the $2000 price range. Gold continues to suffer negative impacts in early 2024
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2000 - $2002 SL $1992
TP1: $2010
TP2: $2020
TP3: $2030
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2048 - $2050 SL $2055
TP1: $2040
TP2: $2025
TP3: $2017
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
GOLD - XAUUSD 4H Long term Sell!Hello Everyone,
Welcome to FXMYWORLD.
Let's see how this pair will perform based on the analysis.
Make sure you do your research and based on your confluence please look for the entry.
Don't rush your trades without any confirmation.
Thanks in advance for checking my trade idea.
GOLD is expected to fluctuate slightly todayGold is poised to mark its first weekly decline in a month on Friday, as the U.S. dollar gains support from fading expectations of an early interest rate cut. Investors are eagerly awaiting a key employment report later in the day to glean further insights into the future of interest rates.
The dollar index is on track to register its best weekly performance since July 2023, making the precious metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. The shift reflects the ongoing strength in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by Thursday's data revealing a larger-than-expected decline in new jobless claims and increased private sector hiring in December.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting held on December 12 and 13 indicate a growing sense among policymakers that inflation is under control. However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding expectations for interest rate cuts. This ambiguity has contributed to a cautious approach in the market.
The decline in interest rates diminishes the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which monitors trader bets on interest rate movements, market expectations for a rate cut in March have dropped to 65%, compared to 90% the previous week. This shift reflects a reassessment of the economic landscape.
GOLD H4 / NEW TRADING IDEA ✅Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to GOLD H4. I see a good opportunity for a SHORT TRADE from the OB.
As a take profit, I see the price of 2015.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
____________________________________
Follow, like, and comment to see my content:
www.tradingview.com
Forming a short-term DOWN trend, correction⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
There is no important US economic news today, mainly based on technical analysis according to the Gold chart
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Prices are forming a downward wave pattern in the short term. According to fibonacci, Gold prices need a DOWN adjustment period to continue creating more liquidity for the market in early 2024.
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2047 - $2045 SL $2040
TP1: $2052
TP2: $2060
TP3: $2074
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2074 - $2076 SL $2080
TP1: $2068
TP2: $2060
TP3: $2050
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
XAUUSDHello traders ,what do you think about GOLD ? In the 1-hour gold chart, we're observing a downward market momentum. The price is currently below the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), reinforcing a bearish market structure. The price has now approached the 38% resistance level, coinciding with a downward trend line and a resistance zone, suggesting potential for a price decrease.Key to watch is the $2048 resistance zone. If this level holds, we could see an increase in gold supply, further fueling the downtrend.Today's critical economic indicators, which might indirectly impact gold prices through their effect on the US dollar, are the ADP Employment Report and the Unemployment Insurance Claims Index. These data points could provide insights into the dollar's strength, influencing gold's trajectory.
If this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.❤️
Gold, Still unclearJust a quick snapshot of a SMALL piece of the previous analysis I did with one addition (yellow tag)
Looking at gold as of present I'd be honest I cannot see why anyone would feel safe to buy at this time
HOWEVER - I also cannot build a strong enough case for a SELL TRADE either as the momentum isn't that bearish to say that you can quickly enter and make some quick profits via a scalp type trade
In my opinion looking at the turquoise zones (next zone where liquidity might be) I feel like I need gold to target and demolish those zones first before we see buy conditions return - and my reason for this is simple
If gold had the liquidity to buy - IT WOULD BUY!, right? The fact that it isn't buying suggests that it doesn't have what it needs and is seeking it out. The real question is - "where might it find what it needs?"
Enter turquoise zones lol - pay close attention to the bull trend over to the left (turquoise line). A bull trend in a bull market? It's almost like the dealer wants you to buy, it's so evil...it's genius!
So induce buyers to buy, stop them out by selling below where they bought, and then actually buy? Maybe - What do you think?
Downvote\Don't boost if you didn't try to take the time to read and understand this post
OR
Upvote\boost if you did try to take the time to read and understand this post
If you genuinely disagree..I have no problem with a downvote, but please leave a comment as to why you think otherwise. This will allow all of us to grow and get better together
Link to previous analysis is here -
Godspeed folks