Gold is trading sideways and waiting for the small non-farm data
Gold prices closed below 2640 on Tuesday after strong US jobs data suggested the Fed was cautious about rate cuts, while a weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields limited losses as the market awaited further economic clues. A strong jobs report could lead the Fed to take a cautious stance on rate cuts. Investors' attention will turn to Wednesday's ADP jobs report and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before Friday's jobs report.
Risk data warning!
US November ADP employment change data will be released. This data is known as the "small non-agricultural" and is expected to trigger a big market trend.
The US November ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) will be released, expected to be 55.5.
St. Louis Fed President Moussalem will give a speech and the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.
Fed Chairman Powell will be invited to be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by the New York Times.
Gold trend analysis and interpretation!
As for gold, although the sharp drop on Monday bottomed out and rebounded, in the short term, we believe that it will run around Monday's time, but the sign of strength is to immediately recover the lost ground. In the past two days, it has been slowly retreating, especially yesterday's market, which finally broke through the high point of 2655 and directly dived from the high platform. The US market continued to fall, so this pattern is extremely weak.
For today, it is necessary to continue to be bearish and downward. Compared with the current price, it is not necessary to go short directly. Similarly, it is not necessary to go long. In this tangled position market, it is necessary to use the European market, that is, the intraday strength and weakness to layout today's trend. Because this trend is volatile, special attention should be paid to the intraday suppression and sideways trading. Like yesterday, pay attention to the resistance of 2655 and choose the opportunity to open a short position.
Gold point: rebound 2652-55 short, defense 62, target 2630-20 line!
Goldprediction
XAUUSD 1HR CHART UPDATEGold 1HR Chart Update ✅✅
The market has made a decisive move, taking out the Buyside Liquidity 🔥. This highlights the precision and predictability of the price action as it sweeps through key levels.
Traders who anticipated this move are now positioned to capitalize on the shift in liquidity. With such precision, it’s a clear reminder of the importance of patience and analysis in navigating the market.
Stay focused—more opportunities are unfolding ahead!
GOLD- Starting a major 27% correction Gold enters a significant downward phase, initiating a major 27% correction from its recent highs. This substantial retracement highlights a shift in market sentiment, potentially driven by economic data, central bank policies, or shifts in investor demand. As prices adjust, traders and investors brace for the impact, analyzing whether this marks a temporary pullback or a longer-term trend reversal in the precious metals..
12.4 Gold today overall range sweepOn Tuesday, the price first dropped to 2634-2633 in the morning, and the support was confirmed in the afternoon, and it was pulled up to 2650 area.
Then, the first bottoming out and rebounding action has been made. Next, under the condition of keeping low, we can look at the second continued upward action, and then break through and stand firmly on the large channel, and then look at the third acceleration to complete the pull-up of 30 US dollars in space
The four-hour pattern continues to show a narrowing situation, waiting for the subsequent breakthrough opening to guide a wave of unilateral volume
The closing range of the shape, the upper rail is 2666-2664, and the lower rail is 2620-2622
The position of the large channel line is close to the upper rail pressure 2652-2653. The support in the same area expands the sweeping space upward. Today's early trading squats back to hold the lower rail support
It can break through and stand firmly along the large channel line 2652-2653, and switch upwards. The next channel upper rail position focuses on the 2676-2678 area
BUY: 2635————2640 Stop loss: 2645————50
Target: 2660 2665
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another great day on the charts today, allowing us to continue to track and trade our route map.
Playing in a tight range today and therefore not much update needed from yesterday. We are in a similar play range, as price is still within the retracement range, allowing us to buy dips into 2647. We need a ema5 cross and lock above 2647 for a continuation above.
Our lower weighted levels are in place for bounces inline with our plans to buy dips, should we see a failure to lock above and see a drop below.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2668
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2668 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2696
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2713
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2713 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2733
BEARISH TARGETS
2647 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2647 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2631 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2631 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2609 - 2592
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
The daily hammer of gold market is extended and rubbed.From the technical perspective, the price of gold continues to fluctuate within the convergence triangle area. The decline on Monday this week is consistent with the characteristics of a volatile downward trend, with the lowest intraday price reaching 2620, which is exactly the starting point of the stabilization and rebound last week, highlighting its key support significance in the volatile market. As the price falls, the market has fallen below the volatile upward support line and is under pressure from the previous high of 2650, with a significant double suppression effect.
Looking ahead to the intraday trend, the suppression of the 2650 line still needs to be focused on this trading day. Given that gold is still in the volatile downward stage of the large-cycle convergence triangle and the downward trend has not yet ended, there is a possibility that the price of the market will fall below 2620. Therefore, in the short term, we maintain a bearish mindset, with 2650 as the key suppression level, and are bearish on gold. However, in the context of frequent interweaving of long and short factors, investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and flexibly adjust strategies to cope with changes that may occur at any time.
Gold price analysis December 3Fundamental Analysis
The focus now appears to have shifted to the Fed policy outlook following the latest speeches from several Fed policymakers and ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa if they create a new currency or support another one to replace the Greenback.
However, a rebound in safe-haven demand for the USD early on Tuesday kept gold buyers on their toes. Persistent concerns about China's economy and Trump's threat of global tariffs remain a drag on investor sentiment.
Gold's next move will likely depend on upcoming US jobs data and its impact on Fed rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, gold traders remain wary of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, between Israel and Iran, which could have a strong impact on the traditional safe haven asset, gold.
Technical analysis
The immediate price range that gold is facing is the 2633 and 2652 zones. The 2633 zone has been relatively weak as the Asian session tested this zone once. If the 33 zone fails to hold, 2629 will become a buffer for gold before finding the main support zone of 2618. The US port zone of 2652 last night is also relatively strong at the moment and it is relatively difficult for gold to overcome and reach 2662 today.
XAUUSDHere is our view on XAUUSD . Potential long opportunity.
XAUUSD has been trying to break below our Key Level 2624 for quite some time. Today we sent out an quick update regarding XAUUSD and explaining that if we manage to break below 2624 we could enter into sells to lower Key Levels 2604 and 2590 . However we also mentioned a break above 2640 would result in more upside . Considering the fact we have broke above 2640 we are looking for buys on this pair.
PARAMETERS
- Entry: 2638.000
- SL: 2628.000
- TP: 2678.000
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD failed to break 2624.
- XAUUSD broke above 2640.
- Breaks below our SL (Stop Loss) would result in lower prices and possible reverses.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
In the long-short game of gold prices, where will the Fed go?
Tensions in the Middle East continue to have an impact on the gold market. The exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel has cast doubts on the effectiveness of the ceasefire agreement. This uncertainty has prompted investors to seek safe assets, pushing up the safe-haven demand for gold. In addition, Israel's air strikes on Lebanon and mutual accusations of violating the ceasefire agreement have further exacerbated market tensions.
In this case, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may increase, especially against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks. However, fluctuations in market sentiment may also lead to sharp fluctuations in gold prices in the short term, and investors need to pay close attention to relevant news.
The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy on the gold market cannot be ignored. Fed Governor Waller said he is inclined to cut the benchmark interest rate at the December meeting, believing that the current policy rate is already restrictive. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and Waller's remarks further strengthened this expectation.
The strong performance of the US dollar usually puts pressure on gold denominated in US dollars. The US dollar index rose 0.59% on Monday, the strongest single-day performance in nearly four weeks, leading to higher costs for gold, which in turn puts pressure on gold prices. Investors need to pay attention to the upcoming economic data, especially those related to inflation and employment, to judge the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve.
Recently, the US manufacturing data has been strong. US manufacturing activity improved in November, and new orders increased for the first time in eight months. The release of these data has strengthened the US dollar and further suppressed gold prices. However, despite the improvement in manufacturing, the overall economy is still facing uncertainty. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.4. Although it is still below the boom-bust line of 50, it is higher than market expectations, showing a certain resilience.
The market is full of expectations for the upcoming non-farm payrolls data, which is expected to provide important clues for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If the employment data is strong, it may increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates in the coming months, otherwise it may support gold prices.
1 The escalation of the exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel has further tested the fragile fire-supporting agreement and brought safe-haven support to gold.
2 The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut have increased, providing support for gold prices.
3 Gold is still in a relatively strong state in the short term.
4 The market is full of expectations for the non-agricultural data to be released this week.
In summary, gold is currently on the strong side.
Today, investors focus on the 1-hour support area below, and go long on gold after the gold price rebounds and stabilizes.
XAUUSD Gold Next Possible move is 2759! Read Description Hello Traders!
Gold looks full bearish can hit 2559! We can see a rising wedge in high time frame (H4) also Elliott wave giving same target because B correct move has been completed and times to give C corrective move till 2559-2504 that is the possibility for Gold in the current situation!
Resistance: 2648, 2660, 2685
Support: 2638, 2620, 2597
Stop Loss: 2660
Tp 2622
Tp 2610
Tp 2570
Tp 2504
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out, as analysed, allowing us to buy dips from our weighted level bounces.
We started the day with the bearish gap below at 2647 being hit followed 2631 retracement range test at 2631 weighted Goldturn giving us over 40 pip bounce like we always state and all the way into 2647.
We need to keep in mind that ema5 has also locked below 2631 leaving the swing range open. However, we are seeing the bullish Goldturn 2647 being tested. If we see a lock above 2647 then we are likely to see the upper targets or failure to lock above 2747 will see a re-attempt on the lower Goldlturns, also keeping in mind the swing range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2668
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2668 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2696
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2713
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2713 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2733
BEARISH TARGETS
2647 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2647 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2631 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2631 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2609 - 2592
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD: 2/12 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2700, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2653, support below 2627
Gold operation suggestions: Last Friday, the technical side of gold prices quickly hit the 2666 mark in the Asian and European sessions and fluctuated sideways. The US session was suppressed and closed below the 2660 mark. Today, the gold price fell directly at the opening of the Asian session and broke through the 2650 mark and continued to fall back to the vicinity of 2640. After rebounding for two consecutive trading days last week, the short-term gold price entered a suppressed adjustment pattern.
At present, from the 4-hour trend, the pattern of continuous rise in gold in the early stage has basically ended, and the short position will continue to ferment. From the perspective of the market, after the gold price fell below 2645, the original support point turned into the first reference pressure. Relying on this position, the main short position continued to fall downward. The lower target position first focused on whether the 2627 mark could be broken. If the 1H line breaks through, it can be further shorted. If 2627 is not broken, it will still maintain a volatile operation. The short-term watershed between long and short strength is 2639. Before the daily level breaks through and stands at this position, any pullback is a short-selling opportunity. Keep participating in the trend
SELL: 2639near SL: 2643
SELL: 2624near SL: 2627
The strategy only provides trading directions.
Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
100% XAUUSD CORRECT WITH MY ANALYSIS After investing countless hours in research, cross-referencing data, and carefully piecing together every detail, I am proud to say my analysis is 100% accurate. Every conclusion aligns perfectly with the evidence, every pattern falls into place seamlessly, and every insight holds firm against scrutiny. The satisfaction of achieving this level of precision is immeasurable, proving that hard work, dedication, and attention to detail truly pay off. There's no better feeling than knowing you've hit the mark with absolute certainty.
GBPUSD Analysis Week 48🌐Fundamental Analysis
Traders have reduced their bets on another Bank of England (BoE) rate cut this year after data released last week showed that underlying price growth in the UK accelerated in October. This has further contributed to the relative outperformance of the British Pound (GBP) against its US counterpart and confirmed the positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
US PCE data released on Wednesday showed that the pace of deflation in the US stalled in October. Moreover, investors now appear to believe that US President-elect Donald Trump’s expansionary policies will boost inflation. This follows the hawkish FOMC minutes earlier this week, which revealed that the Committee could pause its policy rate easing if inflation remains high. Additionally, geopolitical risks and trade war concerns could benefit the relative safe haven status of the Greenback and limit the upside momentum of the GBP/USD pair.
🕯Technical Analysis
The 1.250 support level was accepted by the market as it pushed the price to 1.273 during the final trading session of the week. The break out of 1.262 marked a major development of GBPUSD back to the uptrend. To mark a new growth, GBPUSD needs to trade above the 1.276 area. And immediately we can see GBPUSD trading within the price range of 1.276 and 1.262. Watch the strongest resistance zone of 1.286 for market fluctuations in Nonfarm next week.
📈📉Trading Signals
BUY GBPUSD 1.262-1.260 Stoploss 1.258
SELL GBPUSD 1.286-1.288 Stoploss 1.290
CHOCH IN 5 MIN BUY THE RETRACEMENTGold is exhibiting a notable retracement on the 5-minute chart, creating a potential buying opportunity for traders watching short-term movements. As the price pulls back to test key support levels, market participants are closely monitoring for signs of a bounce that could confirm bullish momentum. This setup highlights the significance of precision in timing entries and managing risk, as gold's next move could define the near-term trading outlook. Will the precious metal regain strength, or is further downside ahead? The next few candles will be critical...
Gold fell by $30 in Asian trading. Will the bearish trend contin
Gold opened in the morning and fell from the 2656 area under short-term pressure. The intraday low tested the 2622 line, and the Asian session fell by more than 30 US dollars. In the real market, after the opening, the direction was clear, and the 2634 area was given a short order, and the short-term space was 10 points.
The long-term trend of gold is still bullish. The medium-term weekly level is expected to fluctuate and adjust. After the sharp drop on Monday last week, the daily level is in a correction and oscillation trend. Due to the divergence phenomenon in each cycle, the key position is selected for intraday short-term operations.
Combined with the current short-term trend of gold, the 4-hour and hourly levels are in a downward channel, and the upper suppression area is in the 2630 area. Breakthrough is further bullish. Therefore, gold European session pays attention to the long opportunity after the breakthrough of the 2630 area, defends 2625, and the upper target looks above 2645. In addition, today is the first trading day in December, and this week is also a non-agricultural day. Wait and see for large long opportunities, and try to avoid shorts. With the bottoming structure of gold, the band can see 100-150 points of space. There will be opportunities for layout in the real market.
XAUUSDHere is our quick view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a quick overview on the pair.
XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2630s.
If we break our KL (Key Level) 2624 , we could revisit 2604 and our target 2590 . Safe sell entries would be at the break of the KL 2624 . Be careful of possible pullbacks to the upside and breaks of 2640 .
Personal opinion:
XAUUSD has tried to break below 2624 several times last week but failed to do so. A clear break below 2624 would confirm the direction and based on that we could take advantage of the sells on gold and potentially hit our 2590 target.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD breaking below 2624 would confirm sells.
- Breaks below 2604 would result in sells, down to 2590 would result in even lower prices.
- Breaks above 2640 could confirm buys.
Happy trading!
FxPocket