Gold 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring?
In 2021 gold has been rotating between $1900 and $1700 per ounce.
While a variety of classic patterns have either formed or attempted to form throughout the year there appears to be a broader attempt at a double bottom in 2021.
The double bottom, having recently tested and rejected 1700, would need to breakout from ~1915 to be validated.
This pattern projects 2150 as the target.
Objectively gold was in a very strong uptrend from 2018 through 2020 and after making a new all time high in August 2020 the price has corrected almost 20%. There is clear support at 1700 and resistance at 1900. Continuing range bound price action suggests a mean price of 1800.
The price is not going to reach 2150 on its own volition. Some factor's worth considering include risk-on/risk-off sentiment, Federal Reserve monetary policy, US Dollar valuation, political events, government trading, and the global supply from mining.
Since the double bottom is not validated the current position is neutral with a bias in favour of mean reversion about 1800.
Goldminers
The Commodities Index Looks Set to Go LowerThis index is breaking down after showing bearish divergence and having a false bullish breakout on the Daily and Weekly.
Based off this and the weakness we're seeing in the commodities themselves i expect the prices of Precious metals to begin a new downtrend in the coming weeks and for the price of Thongs such as Wheat and Soy to have a major decline.
I would also expect many Mining Companies to go down such as FCX and SA and for the Value of the US Dollar to rise.
Quick Precious Metal UpdateXAU/USD – Weekly
What a week! $1670 held again as support during the Monday morning flash crash (which was most probably driven by a large liquidation). The weekly candle looks ugly but in terms of the range and support level I talked about last month there is not big change in the bigger picture. For the patient traders who work with limit orders it was a good opportunity to get some long exposure.
For the longs, $1670 needs to hold and for the more risk averse ones we need to see a break to the upside through the base line which comes in at around $1845.
XAU/USD - Daily
As mentioned in my previous month comment the dip enabled patient buyers to get some long exposure. Currently the price is sitting right at the large liquidity pool of $1750 and it probably will consolidate there for a while.
Last week we quickly got tricked by the price pushing through the base line but then on Monday straight through it on the downside again. What remains is the confluence of the $1845 which seems to be the current resistance plus the upper end of the Ichimoku cloud. This is an important level for the bulls. I am expecting some buying momentum to come in if/when we break that level to the upside.
The downside level to watch remains the $1670.
XAU/USD – 4 hours
Yeah… it looks ugly I have to agree. There is not much to add on this chart. It does not show any immediate trade setups.
XAG/USD – Weekly
In no mans land. We are between the two larger liquidity pools which I have drawn already last month. Both of my bullish pattern (the flat and the triangle) are out of scope now. No trade setup as long we are in the middle of the range.
XAG/USD – Daily
Pretty much the same story here. The $22 level shows some intermediate support but I would still wait till we are closer to either the upper or lower end of the range and then check for a potential trade setup.
XAG/USD – 4 hours
It is looking a bit clearer here in terms of bullish trade setups. We need to take out the $26 level before even thinking about any long positions. The downside is already covered by the range we defined on the daily chart.
GDXJ – Weekly
Many potential bullish patterns got erased with the Monday flash crash in Gold. Same here on the potential symmetrical triangle. The Ichimoku cloud is still bullish but the market sentiment does not feel bullish. $31.50 is the support level to watch.
GDXJ – Daily
Maybe we are in a downward moving channel and currently just sitting on the lower end of it. For the brave ones go long here with a target towards $47. But there is no clear stop, so I would rather play it as a 3-leg strategy to go long the first leg now. Place a second bid in the $37 region and the last one at around $33. Then you can place the stop just below the $31.50. Your target is in the region of $56.
GDXJ – 4 hours
No additional comments to make on the 4 hours chart I am afraid…
Strong underlying momentum in Precious MetalsMy 5-7 year outlook. Amazing fundamental and technical picture for precious metals and for the gold & silver mining companies. They are very undervalued relative to the underlying metals they mine and the fundamental picture gets better and better. They're growing cash flows and making very large margins of over 35% on average. Inflation is here and the Federal Reserve & Government are trapped with rates near zero as the economy is beginning to roll over. Large debts of over 130% Debt/GDP necessitates interest rates remaining capped (Fed funds below 2% for at least 6-10 years). Fiscal spending to grow the economy with yield curve control and currency devaluation to devalue the debt load with ignite a commodities and precious metals bull market and cycle that hasn't been seen since the 1970s.
GDX - the beginning of the endThe GDX Gold Miners is one of my personal favourite, and I have had been following it closely over the last couple of years. Since August 2020, where 95% of position was cleared, there was hardly any sustainable long term rally, albeit the March to June 2021 rally that I actually missed. Since then, it pulled back, and is about to revisit the last major lows. This is the beginning of the end... as in, the bearishness is ending. Now, this could take months to pan out and perhaps about 5% downside risk to go.
The daily chart had prices at a lower range having gapped down early in the week. Unlike equities, the recovery was mild, if at all, with Friday gapping down instead. In the form of a megaphone, the range is now going to widen, but am expecting more downside to the target of about 31.50-32.00.
Technicals support the weakness, albeit not extremely weak... just not strong. Looking for a higher low, with MACD bullish divergence in the month to come. Would not be surprised if it breaks down of the megaphone and then breaks back in again to be super bullish.
Until then... I am sitting on my hands.
IAMGOLD CORPORATION - IAG - BULLISHIamgold Corporation is a Canadian company that owns and operates gold mines in Burkina Faso, Suriname and Canada.
Headquartered in Toronto, the company was founded in 1990 and went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 1996
with additional shares being listed on the New York Stock Exchange beginning in 2005
IAMGOLD is a mid-tier gold mining company operating in three regions globally: North America, South America and West Africa.
Within these regions the Company is developing high potential mining districts that encompass operating mines, construction,
development, and exploration projects. The Company’s operating mines include Westwood in Canada, Rosebel (including
Saramacca) in Suriname and Essakane in Burkina Faso. A solid base of strategic assets is complemented by the Côté Gold
construction project in Canada, the Boto Gold development project in Senegal, as well as greenfield and brownfield exploration
projects in various countries located in the Americas and West Africa.
IAMGOLD employs approximately 5,000 people. IAMGOLD is committed to maintaining its culture of accountable mining through
high standards of Environmental, Social and Governance ("ESG") practices, including its commitment to Zero Harm®
in every aspect of its business. IAMGOLD (www.iamgold.com) is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE:IAG)
and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX:IMG) and is one of the companies on the JSI index1
GOLD MINERS BACK IN BUSINESS - SUMMER
Institutional buying incoming.
No matter the price of gold companies will mine, turn a profit.
NYSE:IAG
TVC:GOLD
CURRENCYCOM:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSD
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
s2.q4cdn.com
s2.q4cdn.com
icrm.indigotools.com
To Gold(Fields) or not to Gold over the Shorter-term?This can turn out to be quite an important support level. A break lower can most probably test R125 again, with a break below R125 not looking healthy for Gold Fields (GFI). We are getting mighty close to a Death Cross, which I will be monitoring very closely. GFI however do find itself in EXTREME OVERSOLD (with the Gold price itself) according to its 14-day Moving Average (EMA), which could see a short-term recovery. Should the support level hold, could see GFI test 8-day EMA at R140.80 very quickly, with a break and close above these levels most probably bringing back the R150 resistance. My personal short-term target is R168, but as a long-term holder of the group, wont necessarily be selling at these levels. Still believe that the sky is the limit with GFI. Going for Gold (pun intended)!
Gold Sell UpdateGood day guys! This is just an update in regards to the position that my team and I are currently holding. In my previous chart, I highlighted how the technicals would be looking to create a rising wedge before continuing to the downside. As of today, the markets are revealing just that. With over 1200 pips and counting, we are still looking for the markets to continue to sell off, because the US government needs the value of gold to be lower for the dollar to strengthen. I mentioned this in my latter post as well, I believe this is going to be the final push to the down side before gold takes off to unprecedented levels before bottoming out. Understand this, Jay Powell and the Fed has come out this previous week to try to calm the markets, but verbally stating, "this is unsustainable." He was referring to the money machines going rapid and inflation moving to higher levels. I believe a top is looking to form in the stock market. This is not financial advice, for I am not a financial advisor registered with he SEC. I do believe in transparency. Therefore, I have began shifting my portfolio to the emerging markets, gold miners, commodities, etc. However, I have learned not to bet against the fed, for they can print whatever and the markets loves debt. We do appreciate you for checking out our post and remember, we will see you on the other side.
Rodrick (CEO)
Third Eye Traders
GDX Gold Miners Hard DropHave not been posting nor updating publicly... but private circle saw the recent run up, and my suspicion that it would not hold. Circles were target points that were "surprisingly" met. (I dont know how to post the snapshots here, but anyways...)
Then this last week saw that GDX cut right through a target level earlier than expected.
A new support target is set, but I still suspect that there is more to come.
Gap Downs are hard, and on very high volume.
This down move is exacerbated with a spiking USD, falling Gold prices and Equities at risk.
Not yet ripe. Wait for it.
GDX : RESET / POSITION TRADE / HEDGEDuring the last three-month trading period, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has generated net inflows of 731.35 million. More importantly, we can see that the greatest selling pressures emerged after the Pfizer vaccine news was released on November 9th.
This suggests that the market is simply undergoing a temporary reaction to a news event and that further downside in GDX seems unlikely because any additional vaccine announcements would probably do little to change the underlying environment.
Moving out to an even longer-term view, we can see further evidence that these assertions are accurate because the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF has actually generated net inflows of 2.37 billion during the last three years.
All together, these trend divergences tell us that investors might have an opportunity to profit from recent paradigm shifts in the precious metals markets. While this short-term enthusiasm might be moderately favorable for U.S. stock benchmarks into the end of 2020, we think that the prospects for economic deterioration during the first-quarter period of 2021 might be enough to send investors right back into safe-haven assets.
Ultimately, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF provides an alternative strategy for investors that are interested in moving deeper into the precious metals sector and its expense ratio of 0.52% remains near the middle of the range for the category as a whole.
SOURCE : INCOME GENERATOR, THE INCOME MACHINE / SEEKING ALPHA
seekingalpha.com
New Gold Inc /Gold Miners / Investment Idea
Fundamental side of The Idea :
Miners continue to outperform gold.
This ratio is now confirming a prior breakout with authority and making higher lows since March.
While all eyes remain on Gold and crypto , this industry is climbing a wall of worry.
About the company
New Gold's balance sheet is looking better thanks to a high gold price. However, all-in sustaining costs are very high and reached $1,550 per ounce in Q1'21, with an AISC of $1,586 per ounce for Rainy River. It is a red flashing signal.
The issue here is the lack of diversity. The company is running two so-so gold mines and doesn't have any leverage if something bad happens. So far, the gold momentum is helping but it wont for soo long.
The reasonable solution is to trade the stock and keep only a small long-term position , The company is clearly undervalued . let say untill The price Reach 7/9 $ range .
Do Not hesitate to Contact me .
S.Sadki
Twenty Seven Co. volume spike ($TSC)Twenty Seven Co. (TSC.AX) is a gold mining company based in Australia. A quick tour of their home page will tell you about their various projects, but at a high level and probably most imporantantly: They own a huge swath of greenstone in Western Australia as well as an actual gold mine which shut down in the 1980's when prices were suppressed. The company has recently come back with stellar results and now a JORC is about to land. This is a quick overview to point you toward a nice price spike incoming.
Financial advice disclaimer in the signature.
Good luck.
Centamin (CEY.L) creating a huge cup and handle patternCup and handle pattern with long term upward trend in tact. I see this targetting a share price of 360p if this pattern holds true and a breakout occurs sometime in the next year.