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GOLD analysis week 36🌐Fundamental Analysis: Gold prices fell about 1% as the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose sharply after US inflation data matched expectations over the weekend. However, given the Federal Reserve's September rate cut and geopolitical tensions remain a risk, gold still has plenty of potential support on a fundamental level. Gold prices closed slightly lower this week but still held the $2,500/ounce mark. Next week, investors will receive US ISM data and non-farm payrolls reports, which are expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. Next week's NFP data will be the main focus, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members have also focused heavily on the upcoming employment data during the Jackson Hole conference. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Signs of steady buying from central banks in emerging markets also support prices. 📊Technical analysis: Looking at the D candle, selling pressure has started to appear on gold. The buying pressure at the end of the day is insignificant and there are ready to be more sell-offs next week. Returning to the familiar H4 time frame, the breakout area of ​​2512 becomes the immediate resistance zone to push gold prices deeper. The declines may extend to the 2485 area and even the 2470 area next week. The downtrend is the path of least resistance for gold. After rejecting the resistance level of 2525 many times, gold may easily break through this hook once again and move straight to the important resistance zones of 2530-2540-2550. Resistance: 2412 - 2420 - 2430 - 2440 - 2450 Support: 2494 - 2485 - 2470 🕯Trading Signal: BUY GOLD 2485-2483 Stoploss 2480 BUY GOLD 2472-2470 Stoploss 2467 SELL GOLD 2513-2515 Stoploss 2518 SELL GOLD 2530-2532 Stoploss 2535
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GBPUSD analysis week 36 🌐Fundamental Analysis The British Pound (GBP) extended its two-day losing streak and hit a fresh intraday low below 1.3150 against the US Dollar (USD) in the North American session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair failed to gain as the US Dollar strengthened following the release of weaker-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for July. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, surged above 101.50. The impact of PCE inflation data is traditionally high as it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure for making interest rate decisions. This time, the impact of core inflation data is expected to remain limited to market speculation on the Fed’s rate cut path this year. Currently, financial market participants expect that the Fed will almost certainly start cutting interest rates in September. However, signs of rigidity in price pressures from PCE inflation data have reduced bets supporting the Fed to start a strong policy easing cycle. 📊Technical analysis As analyzed last week, GBPUSD has retreated when it reached a strong resistance zone. The retreat may continue next week to attract buyers to push the price up further. In fact, GBPUSD is in a strong uptrend. On the D1 time frame, the EMA 34 is sloping up sharply compared to the EMA 89, indicating that the market structure is leaning towards the upside, the retreat is only pushing the price up in the near future. The nearest trading range is around 1,300-1,327. These are two strong resistance and support zones and also the price range where investors can enter orders. With a perfect retracement it is possible to push the price to the old peak around 1.342 and the strongest retracement is supported at 1.284. Resistance: 1.327-1.342 Support: 1.300-1.284 🕯Trading Signals SELL GBPUSD zone 1.327-1.329 Stoploss 1.331 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.300-1.298 Stoploss 1.296
by TVS-Trader
Asian session volatility August 30Gold prices lost momentum amid a stronger US dollar on Friday. Upbeat US growth reports and initial jobless claims pushed back expectations of a deeper interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, weighing on non-yielding bullion. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine could boost safe-haven demand, benefiting the yellow metal. Gold could be pushed higher as the European session begins. Look for buy zones around 09-07 or 03-01. Further trading strategies will be updated soon.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Price Analysis August 26☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices traded above the 2520 resistance level after the European session. The gains came amid growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start lowering borrowing costs in September. Lower interest rates are generally positive for Gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic uncertainty are likely to boost safe-haven demand, benefiting Gold prices. On the other hand, sluggish demand in the Chinese economy could weaken the yellow metal as China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of gold. Later on Monday, US Durable Goods Orders for July are due. The highlight of the week will be the US Preliminary Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, which will be released on Thursday and Friday. ☘️Technical Analysis: With the current price increase, the technical structure has tilted to the upside. We will wait for the H1 candle to close above the 2520 port to confirm that gold will continue to move straight to the resistance zone of 2530. And in the US trading session, gold can completely create a new ATH. Retracement hooks are relatively unlikely at the moment. When the distance to 2509, the Asian session bottom this morning encountered quite a few barriers. The important technical support hook today will be 2495 to ensure the current market structure. Resistance: 2525 - 2535 - 2547 - 2558 - 2568 - 2590 Support: 2509 - 2500 - 2494 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2442 SELL zone 2528 - 2530 stoploss 2534 BUY zone 2496 - 2494 stoploss 2490
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
EURUSD analysis week 35🌐Fundamental Analysis EURUSD surged in the North American session after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the green light to interest rate cuts, as he believes inflation is approaching the central bank's 2% target. The pair traded near 1.120, a recent month high. The week ahead opens with a relatively quiet data schedule, however key inflation data points from both the EU and the US remain in the shadows. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures will act as the precursor event on Thursday, but EURUSD traders will focus on a double headline on inflation scheduled for Friday next week. The EU Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) preliminary inflation figures for August are due out next Friday and are widely expected to show that the core EU inflation figures continue to cool towards the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% annual target. On the US side, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be released on Friday. 📊Technical Analysis: EURUSD has formed a strong uptrend that is the highest in the past month following the latest Fed data. On the D1 timeframe, the EMA 34 is sloping up strongly against the EMA 89, suggesting that the market structure is tilted to the upside with the nearest trading range around 1.127-1.110. With such a strong rally, the upside could extend next week to the resistance at 1.14. Any pullback at the moment is seen as a good time to buy rather than a trend reversal. The best BUY level is around 1.100 strong resistance zone that EURUSD broke through and now forms a strong support zone when the pair price returns. Resistance: 1.127-1.146 Support: 1.110-1.100 🕯Trading signals BUY EURUSD zone 1.127-1.129 Stoploss 1.131 SELL EURUSD zone 1.100-1.098 Stoploss 1.096
by TVS-Trader
XAU/USD 26-30 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed again, However, CHoCH positioning remains the same. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Bearish CHoCH positioning, which is denoted with a blue dotted line, and 50% internal EQ are almost identical. We currently do not have any indication of price pulling back. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged above $2,500The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains in favor of buyers so long as the triangle resistance-turned-support, now at $2,470, holds. Note that Gold price yielded a symmetrical triangle breakout last week while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above 50. These technical indicators suggest that the bullish potential remains well in place for Gold price. On the upside, should Gold buyers recapture the record high of $2,532, the next relevant topside target is seen at the $2,550 level. Acceptance above the latter could challenge the $2,600 round level en-route to the triangle target, measured at $2,660. If the Gold price correction resumes, the immediate support is seen at the abovementioned triangle resistance-turned-support at $2,470. A breach of the latter will call for a test of the. Further south, the $2,450 psychological barrier will come to the rescue of Gold optimists.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold trading strategy August 22☘️Fundamental Analysis: Gold prices attracted some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and slid closer to the psychological $2,500 mark, although they held above the overnight low. The US dollar (USD) gained some positive momentum and now appears to have broken a four-day losing streak, hitting a fresh yearly low on Wednesday. This, coupled with the underlying bullish sentiment across global financial markets, turned out to be a major factor undermining the safe-haven precious metal. That said, dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) could limit the USD’s recovery and act as a bullish driver for Gold. Data released on Wednesday showed that US job growth over the year through March was weaker than initially estimated. Moreover, the minutes of the July FOMC meeting showed that some officials are leaning towards an immediate rate cut. This reaffirms bets for the imminent start of the Fed easing cycle in September, which would benefit the non-yielding yellow metal. ☘️Technical Analysis: Gold is trading in a range of 2495-2518. The consolidation zone that has been maintained throughout this week needs to be stronger for gold to break out of the price range. On the upside, gold will face immediate resistance around 2513 before reaching the important breakout zone of 2518. The all-time resistance around 2531 will be the last resistance before making a new ATH and heading towards higher hooks. If gold fails to break the resistance of 2513 and breaks the lower band of 2395, the important support zone around 2385 will be the key place to watch. The lowest level at the sell plan is 2376. Resistance: 2519 - 2527 - 2531 - 2540 - 2552 Support: 2500 - 2495 - 2488 - 2475 - 2470 SELL scalp price zone 2518 - 2520 stoploss 2523 SELL price zone 2550 - 2552 stoploss 2556 BUY price zone 2477 - 2375 stoploss 2471 BUY scalp price zone 2488 - 2386 stoploss 2482
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD to find buyers at market price?Gold - 24h expiry The primary trend remains bullish. Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. A lower correction is expected. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Risk/Reward would be good to call a buy from current levels. 50 4hour EMA is at 2482.8. We look to Buy at 2485.2 (stop at 2469.2) Our profit targets will be 2525.2 and 2532.2 Resistance: 2520.0 / 2531.7 / 2550.0 Support: 2493.8 / 2480.0 / 2460.0 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OANDA
Gold Price Analysis August 21☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices extended their bullish consolidation above the psychological $2,500 level heading into the European session on Wednesday and remained within striking distance of the record high hit the previous day. Investors appeared to be betting that the Federal Reserve would begin its policy easing cycle and announce 25 basis points (bps) in September. This continued to weigh on US Treasury yields and became a key support for the non-yielding yellow metal. In addition, geopolitical risks, China’s economic woes and a slight decline in global risk sentiment served as a boost for the safe-haven commodity. Investors also appeared reluctant and preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday will be closely watched for clues on the US central bank's policy path. ☘️Technical Analysis Gold is trading in a narrow range of 2500 and 2532. That is the wide range we can trade when gold breaks out of the sideways range in the Asian session around 2519-2510. Today's key support resistance zone around 2550 and 2476 to ensure that gold's price range does not increase or decrease too much. RSI corrected in the US session yesterday but is still at a relatively high level. If gold fails to close below 2500, it is very likely to create a new ATH in the following days. Resistance: 2527 - 2531 - 2540 - 2552 Support: 2500 - 2495 - 2488 - 2475 - 2470 SELL scalp zone 2528 - 2530 stoploss 2533 SELL zone 2550 - 2552 stoploss 2556 BUY zone 2477 - 2375 stoploss 2471
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Price Analysis August 19Fundamental Analysis Gold prices remained on the defensive in early European trading on Monday, although they held above $2,500 and remained within striking distance of their record highs. Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin lowering borrowing costs in September triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury yields. This, in turn, dragged the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since January and acted as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal. In addition, the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war contributed to limiting the decline in the safe-haven commodity. However, traders appeared reluctant to place fresh bets on Gold prices, preferring to wait for further signals on the Fed’s rate cut path. Therefore, the focus remains on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, Friday’s breakout above the $2,470-2,472 horizontal barrier and subsequent strength above the previous all-time high is seen as a fresh impetus for bullish traders. Furthermore, the oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still far from overbought territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for Gold prices is to the upside. That said, the failure to build momentum above the psychological $2,500 mark warrants some caution for the bulls. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying above Friday’s time-allowed top, around the $2,509-2,510 region, before positioning for any further gains. On the other hand, the $2,472-2,470 resistance level currently seems to protect the immediate decline. Any further decline is likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited in the $2,448-2,446 zone. The latter will act as a key pivot for short-term traders, a decisive break of which will open the way for deeper losses. Resistance: 2509 - 2519 - 2533 Support: 2495 - 2488 - 2475 - 2470 SELL scalp price zone 2508 - 2510 stoploss 2514 SELL price zone 2532 - 2534 stoploss 2538 BUY price zone 2477 - 2375 stoploss 2471
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader