GME
GME: CTB on the rise can price go back up to $40?Hey everyone,
As always not financial or sexual advice. That being said, every time the CTB rises drastically there has been a sharp increase to the upside in price.
March 15-24th 2%-22% increase of ~153%
May 19-25th 8%-50% increase of ~64%
July 21-22nd 32%-124% increase of ~ 20%
Dec 19 - Present 8%-27.7% increase of ???
Fibs suggest a downside of $18.40 and $17.61.
Good luck!
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Meme Basket Found - AMC CHPT COIN DT F FIVN GME GRAB HOOD LUMNTo add a good approximation of what the current meme basket looks like just copy this and add it as a new symbol.
AMC+CHPT+COIN+DT+F+FIVN+GME+GRAB+HOOD+LUMN
This is the current basket and someone's sold $166 mil worth of spreads ranging between $0.4 up to $6.3 in spread on this basket on the 7'th of Dec and 15'th of Nov. There's around 78 transactions worth $2m each done in quick succession on those dates.
Here's the stocks that are part of this basket:
AMC
CHPT
COIN
DT
F
FIVN
GME
GRAB
HOOD
LUMN
This isn't that good because HOOD is part of the basket and so is AMC (which we all kinda knew). But because HOOD is part of this basket and FTX's was hoarding HOOD shares that may be sold off in the market (hopefully will be sold in a block trade auction instead), if those HOOD shares are sold at market value, they'll tank the whole basket. Regardless, even if sold algorithmically, those HOOD shares are going to have a decently big effect on the basket (Price go down).
This is a weird basket with lots of mixed sectors... All i can say is that there's a falling wedge which indicates that something may start occuring in Feb just in time on Feb 21 for the quarterly meme run. Hopefully the whole market doesn't decide to correct again on that date like it has the past few cycles specifically on that EXACT day out of coincidence...
Found this swap in the DTCC- SEC swap depository online as this is something i've been tracking for a bit over a year now. Since a month ago SWAPS are reported with a lot more and useful information and the full meme basket name is now visible basically.
$GME - Turned Bullish, but what about the rest of the market?GME is looking super good today. Shorts increased their positions by another $25mil which is extremely bullish for GME in terms of making the price increase/run or whatever you want to call it. It looks like the run is happening after all.
You need to however take the rest of the market in consideration before getting too happy.
For the past few cycles, GME has done it's thing into a bearish market. One example was when CPI/FOMC was on the exact same day as a run (twice actually) and the run got crushed. Another example was when AMC gave out it's dividend 1 day before the GME run and 1 day after the GME run was the TSLA split. There were plenty more instances where GME just did it's run into a dying market.
EOD Data
-Looking at the EOD data for GME, as i said things are looking super bullish. A run is going to happen for sure.
-Looking at the rest of the market, i'm not sure what's about to happen e.g i can't tell. If the rest of the market does not die starting tomorrow, the run should be a good one and would touch in my opinion $40 for GME. If the rest of the market starts dying tomorrow onwards, i think GME could make a new low at $17.xx.
Positions: SPY Puts, AMD Puts, Coca Cola Puts.
I could've kept my GME calls but i'm not feeling this one even if the GME data is clearly saying things are bullish. This means #1, i'm a week early and #2 you're all about to get rich. So, good luck. I really hope GME doesn't get pumped whilst the market is dying for whatever random sudden news comes out tomorrow...
TLDR:
-Data says GME go up for sure.
-I'm not feeling it, so i think it's going to $17.xx
Data is almost always right, i'm alost always wrong. Cheers.
$GME - Load up, only a little bit...My data doesn't indicate a run for GME this time.
I'm thinking there's a possibility of a run on 21 Dec -+1 day as usual. The only indicator i have to rely on that might support this is the idea that the market always pukes on or until SPY Dividend dates (16 Dec) and then starts to recover immediatel the week after. There are some exceptions where the dump on SPY dividends can last +1 week thus ruining any hopes for a rally.
I'm hedging my SPY puts with GME calls and SPY calls for the moment. Not fully hedged, only partially buying GME and SPY calls because i'm not sure whether next week will be a thing. Need to see today's and Monday's EOD data for that. Needless to say, GME's resistance is at $19.4 and that's where you should at least load up a bit or even from where we are right now. Anything below this resistance and i would personally consider completely removing this stock from my watchlist at this point since there's more easy places to make money at.
Don't go all in on calls, if you have puts, keep them and only buy a handful of calls. There's 0 guarantee for anything happening next week. I'll update this post once i have more data and if the data indicates anything good.
Load up when
RSI is oversold
GME is below $20
That's my opinion
AMC ready to fade. Too Much Big Short Money to OvercomeI like the theory of beating the Hedge Funds and their over capitalized naked shorts
but the reality of the markets is that they exist to hurt us (the poor and middle class).
I'm expecting a fake breakout sometime between now and Christmas, this will pull in a final round of suckers.
then going into the new year, this will print a definitive new lower low on a ton of volume.
The AMC Movie Theatre business fundamentals don't matter at all, this is a meme asset that is narrative and emotion driven only
Daily Falling wedge on GME has just entered the Discount ZoneLooking at this Falling wedge on the daily, a breakout of this wedge could be substantial and shoot this stock back into the 40s with ease. SI is on the rise as is IV, Also SMC showing GME has just entered the Discount zone and grabbed a pretty big block of liquidity. Prem zone on the Daily is sitting in the $43 dollar range.
$KO - Coca Cola as the next dump indicatorI'm doing nothing special here, just using KO's dividends date as a market dump indicator.
Starting 11-21 days before Coca Cola dividends, the market begins to dump like clockwork. Taking previous dumps in consideration, we see that the dump amount is around 9% for KO which is A LOT for a "stable" company like them.
In this following dump to come i have a price target of $56.3 ish or around 9% from today's $60.63. Similarly based on the incoming KO price dump, i obviously expect the rest of the market to do the same as the dump is market wide after all. My arbitrary price target for SPY is around $360 give or take $5 bucks by the 5'th of Dec, the same applies for the rest of the market as a bottom to this incoming dump.
In the coming days (15/11/2022 - 18/11/2022), we might see a fast SPY pump to $412 or $61.6 for KO as the market prepares to reverse, but i wholeheartedly believe another big dump is coming due to that this week is Opex week and next week's Tuesday is GME's quarterly cycle price run date. For the past several cycles now there's always been a big market event starting right on the dot either on Monday or Tuesday that cause the entire market to go to hell just as everything starts to pump and squeeze. Since next week on Monday and Tuesday we're supposed to see the action from this Friday's option expiries & exercises/sell/buys settling, we're supposed to see big volume on the high IV/Gamma meme stocks, but you can be certain that kind of volume is gonna get crushed as is usual by some freak market event that will magically appear early next week.
I'd like to be more positive about next week and the whole market in general and specifically meme stocks, but unfortunately this is the new reality i've accustomed myself to. Funnily enough i've found a guy that was able to explain the above but in terms of dealer positioning twitter.com which confirms (in my own mind anyway) next week's events. I think the recent micro pump of everything is the effect of retail long puts short calls and the inverse relationship with those vs BD's and hedging e.g you buy a put, that forces someone to hedge it and the market may move against you as more people do so forcing more hedging. So if you bought a GME put, though counter intutitive, it's possible to see a short term price increase even though selling a put should traditionally have this effect and not buying a put... So yeah i think things are a bit nuts right where i have to come out and say that "buying a put can make stonks go up..."
Swaps
Going through the latest swaps, there's literally been minimal action for quite a while now. When there's been sustained crappy low volume trades for a while and no big trades or multiple trades coming in, this is usually a sign that more of the same is about to come e.g more dumping.
OCC Hedging Volume
Some stocks like BYND and a little bit GME showed some promise on last Friday into Monday 11/11/2022 with a decent increase in the hedging balance for BBBY, GME, BYND and a few other stocks, but nothing significantly big enough that would indicate a price run yet. I'm monitoring EOD OCC hedging vol data and hoping for a spike that would indicate a price run, but so far nothing. At least there hasn't been a drop in the hedging balance, so there's a little bit of hope left... but not a lot.
Lending Fees & Swap Trade Timing
I'm going through lending fees for certain stocks & the moments in time where the lending fee has increased proportionally to large swap trades. Equally i've been looking at periods where swap trades are minimal and where OCC hedging balances are dropping slowly where this has the effect of borrow fees also dropping bit by bit. I have indications that something should happen in the next few days e.g a big volume driven event, but the problem is that the entire market is prepared for a price dump on everything, so even if there is a lot of buying volume next week for the reasons i previously mentioned in my comments above, it would be buying/covering volume into a downwards market meaning that it's a nothingburger.
My entire account is currently on Puts on random stocks like Intel, NVDA, Sono, SPY and KO as well as GME as a hedge against my long GME calls $30c for 2023. Here are my positions minus my GME calls as to not give out the expiries (not that people don't already know them) imgur.com
None of this is financial advice. This is not a suggestion for you to do the same. I often lose money and it would be a shame if any of you poor souls followed what i'm doing here and lost money too.
Where are all the shares Kenny? Wow how absolutely wrong I was, looking back at all of this time, effort and money... I've been having a hard time swallowing the truth of this squeeze play being a nothing burger for the past 2 years so far.
With that said, my conviction on this play has not changed whatsoever. No, that is not supposed to be an inspiring statement at all for us shareholders (we have been railed so far) it is just the purest truth. I am not giving up nor will stop buying shares, I will continue accumulating over the time that passes by, there has been too much DD and investigation of the fraud currently taking place in the market and especially on this ticker to roll over. I'm calling this bad call as it is, being wrong, but this play WILL eventually come to fruition and squeeze from the massive amounts of short shares floating around in this oblivion we call a "Market". They have not covered, that's the only thing that matters to me.
GME will either crash down to 10$ here or start its run back to test that 35$ area then 50$ etc. I still have every call I've purchased so far this journey (leaps), along with every share, I have not sold a thing.
To all the people/bears telling me that I was wrong, well yes, that seems to be true at the moment. Lets just remember though before you have your victory lap... it hasn't ended yet. Tread carefully...
Happy Holidays.
Trade Plan 12/12/2022
TP1>
if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3995, we can test > 4035 > 4056.
TP2>
if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 3995 > we can test > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS-CPI POC).
I'm not expecting any crazy swings in the markets for tonight GLOBEX and TOMORROW US CASH SESSION, probably sideways, choppy, as we have two major reports this week to finish 2022:
> CPI Tuesday 8:30am
> FOMC (Fed Interest Rate Decision) Wednesday 2:00pm
- IMO the big trade will happen by CPI report Tuesday 8:30am and with that we will have a clear direction for a continuation or reversal only after FOMC report.
- Be ready, it will be a interesting 3 days to trade, but with not much opportunities as the BIG PLAYERS are already loaded and in FULL GEAR.
- The trade will happen and you wont be able to get anything if you're not in before 8:29am (Tuesday Morning), basically those are LOTTO TRADES, and the market can DUMP or SPIKE +100 handles.
#tradesafe
$GME - The bottom's inPositions: imgur.com
Suffered minimal losses accumulating this position so far since i was hedged and mostly entered at around 21.96 levels and kept repositioning lower and lower.
As apes who bought calls at $25 and $26 close their calls with -90% loss, this stock is going to bump back to $25-$26 levels as long as the market does not crash tomorrow (which is a real possibility, SPY $380-$386 and VIX/UVXY Pump. IV is quite high right now with 1 hour left to close and earnings ahead. Probably best to get in with shares and not with options.
$GME - Dec 6 RunIt's simple, just like my previous posts.
This has nothing to do with earnings or fundamentals. It's purely a market mechanic trade.
The delta from expiring/exercised/rolled monthly expiring options from the end of the month will always hit the market on the usually first Tuesday of the next month.
Dec 6 is the date where lots delta will get settled due to last month's expiring options & from Nov 22's failed sucker rally options.
Would rather not over-share the method to this at this point. Just look at my previous posts on $GME and decide for yourself. When bashing for whatever reason at least please keep the language civil in the comments.
At the same time here's a screenshot of something and no explanation what it is or a direction prediction so that i can appear cryptic and smart like others do. imgur.com
Jk imgur.com Dip before the rip on the 6'th probs will be caused by today's CPI thing.
Keep in mind that this even is market wide but it only manifests as 1 sudden big spike on very few stocks. Some of the other stocks i'm analyzing with the method i analyze say that this is the bottom whilst GME says there's another dip spike before the 6'th. I've decided to ignore this dip and i've gone ahead and bought risky options not GME but another stock with a similar but even better setup that i believe will spike even higher than GME on this run. I won't be posting my position in said other stock here not to get inversed by highly regarded folk.
Regardless, there's money to be made on GME.
The safe space is with 9 Dec 24c's (-100% or +200% return)
Mixed Risk is: 9 Dec 24c's & 29c's (-100% or +450% return)
Yolo / LFG: 9 Dec 29c's (-100% or +800% return)
Stay safe. There's mixed signals on the data i'm seeing whether there will be a dip before the rip in the next few days or today. I'm betting there won't be one, but i'm a fool. A good trader would wait for that dip.
GME 21/24/28 Broken-Wing Put ButterflyRange-Bound Pullback Set-Up:
Since about early September GME has been range bound between 29 and 24. The entire market was down for the month of September, yet this traded range bound in this area. But towards the end of September, it tightened it's range bound between 27 and 24 and trending lower at a slow pace. With the big green day we had in the markets Thursday after CPI and another green day on Friday, this really didn't move as much. If the range is getting tighter and trending lower, we could be setting up to head lower in the 21-24 range. Which is why I had the idea of a Broken Wing Put Butterfly which can work great in these range bound set ups.
In order for me to put this trade on, I need to see this trade below were today's candle ends up. Because as of now, it's looking like a reversal candle at the area of resistance. So I'll have to check this tomorrow before executing my trade. As far as stops, I'll be position sizing with max loss. If the market decides to head higher the rest of this month and GME decides to follow the general market, this could make it's way back to another resistance point of 29ish. If by the end of this week it gets to 29, I'll want to see a reversal candle at 29, before I decide to get back in another trade.
Trade Set-Up:
No trend. It's making relatively equal highs/lows. The 20-day & 50-day SMA's are flattening out as well. I've established that resistances for this particular trade idea is 27 and support at 24. This small rally has brought the stock back up to resistance level and a reversal candle is currently forming.
T.E.S.T.
Timeframe: 3 weeks. I'll have a December 2nd expiration date.
Entry: If this trades below todays possible reversal candle, my entry will be right around 26.
Stop: I'll be positioned for max loss.
Target: My target is 24.
Profit Score:
Potential- 2
ATR- 2.18
Score- 0.92
Stock Outlook: 0 to -1
Trade Breakdown:
Chart Set-up is Range-Bound and consolidating.
Entry: I'm going to sell the December 2nd 24 strike and buy the December 28 and 21 strike. There are no earnings scheduled until December 14th so stable volume is anticipated.
Position Sizing: This should be a Net Debit of about 3.10ish by tomorrow if it does fall to 26 tomorrow. I'll be setting up for max loss and only risking 2% of my portfolio.
Trade Management: A week before this expires expires I will analyze the trade to determine if I should close out the position before expiring. If this falls below 24 before December 2nd and looks like it wants to run back up to 24, I might want to hold this to expiration to close out near the apex of the trade.
GME GameStop Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the GME GameStop options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $30 strike price Calls with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$3.00 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Update to TTT’s relation to GMEShort and sweet is what we all love.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICe, I AM A DEGEN
TTT is reclaiming base support, following my thesis, if this continues, GME will begin to absolutely ROCKETTTTTTT
My original thesis claims TTT is being utilized for GME swaps. As TTT remains parabolic (upwards), GME will continue to tank. As TTT falls through floors and tanks, GME should rocket.
Please check out my previous posts if this type of critical thinking interests you. I have been covering this topic personally since 2020.
Remember Direct Registration of your Shares, or DRS, is the best way to purchase direct stock under your legal name. Doesn’t it make sense to actually own shares you purchase? Forget the advantage of booting short sellers, it’s time to own what you purchase. Screw street name.
Much love,
~Chem <3
GME: Huge Price Action Next Week? $43?Hello,
Welcome back to another TA! First and foremost, I eat crayons every day, and none of this is financial or sexual advice. That being said, the MACD, although a lagging indicator tells us a bigger picture of what is to come. First, the further the signal line is below zero, the stronger the signal once the MACD line crosses from below to above the signal line the more bullish. We're mostly going to talk about the daily timeframe but the weekly is also a telling story.
MACD
So, in the past year, starting in
March (RC buy-in) MACD was way below zero and once it crossed above the stronger uptrend we had a ~122% move up.
May MACD also way below zero and once it crossed over we saw a 77% move up
July MACD had a bullish crossover but we were already above zero so the strength of the uptrend was not as strong 27%
Aug MACD was again above zero and the move up was 33%
Sept MACD crossed over below zero but didn't move up past zero. This resulted in a mere 11% move up.
This takes us to the start of the week, Nov 14th, where we had a bullish crossover that started below zero and has crossed from below to above zero. This means our uptrend strength should be greater than expected.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI on Nov 9th started below 50 and has since crossed 50 which indicates the stock is bullish. On the weekly, the RSI is curving up to reclaim the 50 line and once we cross over there we'll see some huge uptrend.
Fibonnaci
Fib retracements show that we'll hit $29.99 (0.618) soon. Coupled with what we know about the MACD and RSI we should see at least $32.19 and if the bull trend is strong, we should see (1.618) $43.08
TL;DRS Everything signals bullish with this stock and we should see huge price action which could potentially take us to $43.
GME 2.0????????? BGFV SQUEEZE!?!?!?!!!!www.reddit.com
In-depth analysis, can explain better than I can.^^^^^^
But essentially a similar situation to GME was.
A highly shorted stock that is debt free, making profit, and other good fundamentals.
Currently BGFV is the most shorted stock in the market.
The special interest date will be a big event.
Whether it squeezes or not, this stock is a great buy.
But volatility is increases a short is imminent and it's becoming more volatile.
Before earnings report it pumped 70%.
What do you think does this have the potential to squeeze????
Will we see $100+???????
Let me know, whatever happens it will be very interesting!!!!
GME Bullish Breakout of WedgeAfter a long few months of trading sideways, and a couple of fake outs, it looks as though GME is holding it's bullish breakout of the wedge that formed the last 3 months.
Looking for a break of the $45-50 ish highs from earlier in the year and to settle in somewhere above that heading into the end of the year / early 2023. I suspect wall street does not want a bunch of retail investors (younger folks) using their Christmas money to lock in large buys at low prices. They won't allow those people to get in at these low levels. Look for one more major drop sometime in February / March when tons of basket swaps expire and to make the Christmas money buyers see some heavy red in their accounts (and a likely large bounce back up once those people are potentially shaken out).
Just for fun, not financial advice. I'm looking to enter 12/2 through 12/30 $25-45 calls and see what happens.