Economic Outlook for 10-15 years aheadMy Economic Outlook for 10-15 years ahead
The rare double-dip recession
October CPI report shows Inflation slightly decreased to 7.7% and The Fed already made a statement to decrease The Fedfunds Rate. Potential Fed pivot approximately will occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. That will be the time of disinflationary period or maybe we are already in by now. What to be expected in disinflationary period is stock market drawdown will continue, rising unemployment, more business entities will collapse, fewer job openings, in short 2023 will be dark especially in the US. Technically it is a recession.
The good news is inflation can be pushed back to 2% area and from there QE can be restarted. Most people that already tired by long economic drawdown are strongly craving for bull market. Productivity will rise again along with its economic and secondary leverage and a creeping up inflation leaving the 2% area. An inherent nature of capitalism.
The question is what will be the destiny of Petrodollar as its losing control over the total international trade volume. The rapid change of global power dynamics which spearheaded by BRICS+ economy has substantially diminish the Dollar hegemony. The regional powers that have control over the world commodities are grouping up to create a new, commodity-backed currency. In addition to that there is a strongly rising tension between Russia and NATO.
More than 50 years ago, the US left the Bretton-Woods System and to keep the US dollar relevant as global reserve currency, Petrodollar was introduced and rapidly embraced by the OPEC which consequently making the US Dollar became the world's most traded currency. That is the underlying value of the Dollar besides of debt.
But the current astronomical $30+ Trillion of government debt and the weakening of Petrodollar globally has come to a critical question of what will be the next US decisive move?
Chaos has to be applied first to disrupt any potential challenger to the US Dollar, and from there a revolutionary economic policy has to be implemented.
Worst case scenario is the new Great Depression can manifest after almost 100 years since its first occurrence in 1929.
Note: This economic outlook which also the same with any version of economic outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. This post is mean for educational purpose only.
