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DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3%, DOWN from 3.17% from last week With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 51th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.87% movement Bearish: 2.43% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 14375 BOT: 13493 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14681 65% probability we are going to touch previous low 13812 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 0% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
XETR:DAX
by exlux
Buying DE40 at daily 20 EMA.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 14271 (stop at 14198) Daily signals are mildly bullish. 20 1day EMA is at 14271. We look to buy dips. Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral. The 1 day moving average should provide support at 14271. Our profit targets will be 14448 and 14498 Resistance: 14390 / 14450 / 14500 Support: 14300 / 14250 / 14200 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, DOWN from 2.9% last week according to DVOL data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 24th percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 8th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.87% movement Bearish: 2.4% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 14714 BOT: 13886 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14500 66% probability we are going to touch previous low 14200 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 40% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 2.98% last week according to VDAX data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 1th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.94% movement Bearish: 2.38% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 14920 BOT: 14050 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 75% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14600 25% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14333 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 66% bullish trend Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 66.6% bullish trend
XETR:DAX
by exlux
German DAX index: Pausing for a breatherThe German Dax index rose 25% from its lows in early October, delivering nine weeks of gains and outperforming US stock indices. The bullish price action has been rather sharp for a market that had a 27% decline from its top in the first nine months of the year. In November 2022, the Dax saw overbought RSI for the first time in over a year and the index also managed to surpass quite easily its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as a significant 50% Fibonacci threshold of 2022's low to high. As prices now meet fierce resistance in surpassing the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 14,560 points, a pullback is possible in the following weeks. The first area of support is located at the psychological level of 14,000. This level might serve as a solid test for validating the 50% Fibonacci level breakout occurred in November. If the Dax fails to remain above 14,000, bears may gain impetus and push the price down below 13,500 (38.2% Fibonacci and 200-day moving average). Currently, the strong 61.8% Fibonacci level resistance dominates the upside. If prices broke over this level, the June high of 14,700 would be the next resistance. However, with two important central banks meeting in less than two weeks (Fed on the 14 and ECB on the 15), the upside room for bulls may be limited here. 
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by Capitalcom
DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 3.05% , down from 3.16% from last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 6th percentile, while with VDAX we are on 1th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 1.99% In case of bearish - 2.39% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 17.9% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 14900 BOT: 14000 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 14300 73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 14580 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 66% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 DAX Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.08%, raising from 3.07% of last week , according to VDAX data (DAX Volatility Index) With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1th percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 4th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.05% movement Bearish: 2.38% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 21.1% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 14837 BOT: 13953 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 27% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14150 73% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14450 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 67% of the weekly moving averages are in a bullish trend, and a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 37% bullish stance
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 3.22%, down from 3.33% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 0.5th from ATR and 17th from VDAX index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 1.99% for bullish 2.49% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 81.8% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 14772 BOT: 13820 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 74% to hit the previous weekly high of 14250 27% to hit the previous weekly low of 13380
XETR:DAX
by exlux
Selling break of GER40 low. GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 12999 (stop at 13091) The bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart is negative for sentiment. A break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum. Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail. The bias is to break to the downside. Our profit targets will be 12778 and 12728 Resistance: 13200 / 13360 / 13450 Support: 13100 / 13020 / 12820 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:GERMANY40CFDShort
by Saxo
1
German DAX trending higher Daily Insight Commentary: Monday - German Industrial Production m/m beats forecast this follows Friday’s strong September factory orders data German DAX +12% since October 13th Higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicates short term uptrend taking shape (daily chart) , however resistance in front of current price may push price lower before continuing any further advance. Current price 13,441 Key resistance at 13,555 , a break above resistance places 13,750 in sight for longs with a short term view (5 to 25 days), while short sellers may be aiming for a retest of the 12,950 support spotted at the 38.2% retracement from the 4 week high.
SKILLING:DE40Long
by Skilling
DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.45% which declined from 3.59% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 36th percentile, and according to DVOL we are on 15th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a quiet market. And as a matter of fact we can that this was case for the last weeks but at the same time , one has to be aware that during this "quiet times", things can change radically. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 18.2% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 13880 BOT: 12920 This can also be translated as a 81.8% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 13500 26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 13000
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX crosses the 100 day EMA for the third time this yearThe DAX30 has once again crossed the 100 day EMA for the third time this year. After the previous two crosses, the index went ahead to lose an average of 15%. The index has already reached a trough of 27.55% this year with each drop weakening and bear exhaustion showing up as evident from MACD divergence. The index has priced in a lot of bad news including the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, high inflation pressuring consumers budgets and ECB rate hikes. It is highly unlikely that a recession in Europe has been priced in. The BoE acknowledged that the UK entered a recession in Q3. Eurozone PMIs released this week showed that manufacturing is already in recession territory. Pessimism in the sector is still high but supply chain pressures seem to be falling amidst falling orders. The question on my mind is how deep the recession in Europe will be and how long it will last. I'm currently bearish on European indices as bullish sentiment or lack of bearish price action shows a disconnect from fundamentals. Looking at volume flow (FDAX futures), it can be seen that short positions have largely reduced from a peak of 125K in September to the current 33K. Long positions have also fallen from 134K in Oct to 92K. This implies that the current bullish price action has no legs. This can be collaborated with On Balance Volume showing that inflows might have peaked at the August - September highs. In summary, this is why I'm still bearish and looking to sell the rips: Recession in Europe not priced in or at least partly priced in. Inflation is still a sore thorn for Europe with YoY increases crossing the 10% mark. Volume flows for traders are showing signs for peaking.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.3%, increasing from 7.18% of last month. This is currently placing us in the 70th percentile according to ATR and 91th according to VDAX. Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is: BEARISH Candle : 5.3% BULLISH Candle : 5.14% With this in mind we can expect with a close to 16% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel: BOT: 12385 TOP: 14302 Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a : 75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 13300 (already happened yesterday) 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 11900
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 Currently the volatility for this week is around 3.82% , up from expected 2.7% last week. According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 50th percentile. Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is : BEAR : 2.49% from the opening point of the weekly candle BULL : 1.84% from the opening point of the weekly candle At the same time, currently there is 20.2% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to break and close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 13617 BOT: 12891 Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a : 75% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
XETR:DAX
by exlux
Bullish technical conditions Looking ahead - ECB interest rate decision tomorrow Tomorrow: 12:15 GMT European Central Bank (ECB) meeting takes place where a +0.75% (75 basis point) increase is expected Market movers: German DAX testing resistance opening up the potential for a further upside advance? DAX Index: Bullish technical conditions in the very short-term following the reversal from the 11,829 low, the reversal signals the index may have entered a “corrective” cycle and if proven true places 13,144 at key resistance and 13,721 as prospective upside targets for longs with stops at 12,893. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SKILLING:DE40Long
by Skilling