Germany30
GER30 4h Buy PlanHalted at minor support area with high volume.
Overextended pull-down through major support.
Forming a accumulation zone.
This is for the next trading week.
After the large pull-down I'm looking for an entry long. I'm wary that we are in a long term downtrend hence my plan shows points of resistance where price might react violently. Especially at the 12055 area major support/resistance. If they bull through that it has a good chance of reaching ~12300. Beware of a continuation downward for it was a strong move.
I'll update this plan on Monday.
Please share you're opinions, I'd love to hear you're idea on this.
Have a great weekend traders!
DAX short opportunity in playAs analyzed sometimes before, I am expecting the German Index to be in a bigger consolidative wave 4 which I am expecting to play out as a "abcde" triangle. Within this triangle wie can observe 3 wave moves "abc". I am expecting the DAX to have finished an "a" and "b" wave and a "c" wave could now be about to start which should bring us lower. Therefore I am seeing here a very good risk to reward situation at the moment. However the setup becomes invalidated of course should the German Market Index rise above the indicated stop level. Fundamentally Germanys Economy is heading into a recession, PMIs have been worsening for over one year, with a record low just some weeks ago, well in the contracting territory with a read of 41.7. The car manufacturing sector is dying due to the trade war and over regulation within Germany take a look at my Daimler Analysis linked at the bottom. All in all technically and fundamentally I don't see the German Index rising over the next months, all tough it has been kept up strong for quiet a while now despite bad economic data. The ECB has started a new QE program to combat the economical deterioration, much of this has been priced in now maybe its even overpriced because keep in mind that this program will not start until November and typically monetary policy needs around 8 Months to show its first effects, so at the moment there is no reason to assume the economy will get better within the next months already. We also don't know how well the QE will work around this time we need to wait at least until half a year from now to get fundamental readings. Should we see a recovery in the PMIs about half a year from now or more and should the DAX be on low levels a this time around then this would be a long signal as we could observe that the monetary policy is kicking in, however I think at the moment its definitely too early for that and too much optimism has been blindly priced in relying heavily on the ECB.
#GER30 #DAX #DAXINDEX #Trading Outlook; where are we heading to?Dax has opened on monday morning with a expected pullback Move, but how far will it retrace or will it go sideways?
Daily stoch and daily RSI are telling us since many days that past uprun is running into exhaustion as the oscillators are turning down starting to leave high levels.
We have major key levels that we can easily watch and manage our Risk From without being attached to any economic bias.
On a makro view a possible bullish perspective key level to watch is the major lower trendline. A Break of it would give first insights that makro upward trajectory is totally broken.
But until this happen Dax Index has given us in the past many opportunities to play Fibonacci Retracements to the Upside.
The current Dax Posture tells us not to blindly short the Market it is rather telling us to derisk Any Long Trades and lock in Profits which you might gained during this Year and derisk your Stocks (especially DAX Participants).
Also What gives the Dax a higher probability to go Sideways or decline with a slow pace is that many Dax Stocks have already had their major declines over the past weeks and Months and playing some kind of bounces trying to find buyers but according to current Dax Posture I also would not say that we will not see some lower major german stock prices.
Anyway shorting with prices trading with a rather narrow range to the daily 200EMA and daily 200SMA is not the Trade i am personally looking for.
If you are asking yourself which Fibonacci Retracement Level will be the best to manage your Risk of i can tell you following.
Looking at the daily RSI we are nowhere near any long entries on DAX and personally i am not allocating any eurocent to German Companies at this high Oszillator Levels.
Looking at the past i want to the RSI go back to 0.618 or 0.786 Levels which would go in confluence with chart prices and chart Fibonacci levels around 0.382, 0.5 or even as low as 0.618.
Choose your entries wisely and trade safe!
DAX weekly updateLooking at DAX, weekly chart shows the H&S pattern forming with good divergence on indicators Elliott waves are perfectly respected and by that count we are finishing wave B. Could still go up before the major plunge into C.
This could also be in line with recession fears, showing that we have time but the sell off is inevitable. Wave C also moves in 12345 formation, so we shall get plenty of opportunity to add shorts there.
Good Luck!
#DAX #GER30 #DE30 dont jump into it to early$GER30 #DAX #GER30 #DE30 dont jump into it to early
DAX has risen the past weeks bouncing of 11275 Support and is getting into Resistance Zone were some kind of Pullback is expected.
What we dont want to do is to jump in any DAX Trade without a proper Risk Management Plan because we dont want to get caught between some Ranges maybe forcing us out of our trade.
Daily Stochastic in Bullish Control Zone and not crossed down yet, Daily EMA still room to Go, Waiting for a healthy pullback to at least 50EMA(green) or better the 200SMA(turquoise) for any Entrys, TD Sequential is indicating that there would be a at least time for a 2-4 Candle Correction.
Trade Safe!
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INDEX: GDAXI Deutsche Borse DAX IndexM timeframe uptrend BULL
W time frame uptrend BULL
200WMA acted as support BULL
PMI German below 50 BEAR
MACD W bulls gaining momentum BULL
RSI value above trendline BULL
FIB retracement acts as support BULL
FIB extension acts as price target BULL
US10Y-US02Y inversion leads to US recession AFTER 2-2.5 years BULL
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DAX - Inverse head and shouldersLooks like this is getting away from our ideal entry level. However, it looks a good candidate to buy on dips on the short term.
Trade Idea
Broken out of the Head and Shoulders formation to the upside.
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Bespoke support is located at 11750.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 11750, resulting in improved risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 11750
Stop: 11680
Target 1: 12070
Target 2: 12200
Bearish Head & Shoulders on $DAXBearish Head & Shoulders on $DAX
This is a representation of the German economy,
like the $DJI for the US economy.
Price is currently holding at the trend line support.
A break below would be a continuation of a downtrend
caused by such a pattern.
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DAX inverse head and shouldersDaily chart shows inverse H&S pattern forming, divergence on indicators. MPO could take us back to the broken daily uptrend line. Ideal option would be to see another low on smaller time frame to buy with a better risk reward.
This suggests that markets in Europe should bounce next week. Perhaps as summer ends and investors get back from holidays we shall see increase in volatility.
Good Luck!