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Geopolitics

Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Analysis for JuneWeekend Macroeconomic Report The week was a bullish one. Looking at the weekly time-frame, we've surpassed the 61.8% fib from the march swing-high to the march swing-low. It also gets us about 10% off of the record highs, however the progress was mostly catalyzed by the vaccine news at the early of the week. The rally at the end of this Friday's close was systemic. It was the news that the U.S. president (after the markets were already in anticipation as he had tweeted there would be significant news). The press conference was not positive. The things that came out of it was both anticipated and expected, which is what the markets are operating on right now. They anticipated that the U.S. would begin to win back exceptions from Hong Kong as a semi-autonomous trading partner because of Chinas move to consolidate power under grounds of national security. There was also mention of delisting Chinese companies on the American stock exchanges, which would be huge for companies such as $BIDU. Even the Hong Kong dollar after the news--not far--but remarkable . It's surprising and something I’ve never seen in my life. The most troubling aspect was the anticipation of how bad the second quarter GDP number will be for not just the world but the world. The feds estimate for Q2 is -35% , however not even close to the Atlanta Fed which they expect a -51.2% contracting (annualized). This is extraordinary activity for financial activity, and goes without saying is a lateral move. Is it appropriate to expect that the markets can really price in a -51% decrease in GDP? Even with the guides of central banks, the low assumptions of risk and low recharging of growth fails to reinforce the longevity of investment in the long run. The cost of the SPY for example (a cash ETF, proxy of the SP500) is at a record high with expectations of return extremely low according to C.O.T. (traders sentiment) and hedge fund position. As long as central banks prioritize the headlines, I will be following what the markets are projecting regardless of how irrational the price action. FOMO and momentum can be used to drive sentiment as we se it, and could be a good explanation. Another theme keeping things buoyant will be vaccine headlines over the weekend and also the possibility of the second wave here in the U.S. I suspect if this came to happen in a few weeks. The key themes going into next week will be stimulus. The update from the federal reserve this week they showed they are purchasing high quality corporate ETF's (a new asset class for them) and amongst the ETF's being purchased was LQD. As you can see, it clearly benefited. For some that have been in the game for a while, front running the FED has never been our cup of tea, but the purchases of corporate bonds could be something that could be emulated successfully. The interest will be there, but I doubt that it's NOT already counted in. The other two key events coming up will be the Royal Bank of Australia Central Bank docket. AUD/USD and AUD/JPY will be of watch next week, and also AUD/CAD should have volatility. These are unusual crosses that will be worth paying attention to, because volatility will be high between these crosses. The other central bank is Canada. The USD/CAD could gain traction if the bank announces a surprise in monetary policy. Expectations are accommodation for forward guidance, however there are some pretty steep measures that could be used and this would surely play into our advantage. The USD will have the ser ices PMI next week which will be very important to keep in mind as, as it accounts for 3/4ths of the output of the largest economy in the U.S. This is the indicator that will shake things lose, with N.F.P. will have on Friday but I suspect it to have a lesser impact. Tay FX
FX:SPX500
by TayFx
11
GET READY: A big fortnight ahead!This is an educational post - compliant with the house rules on text-based contributions - showing some of the tension between monetary policy taken by the FED and real world fiscal issues at deeper levels. Click and drag chart if all text does not show. Thanks. The tension has caused whipsaws in the US Dollar, and price of Gold. The IMF has declared a global recession and several countries have gone into recession. Reputable opinion out there is that the world is heading for an economic depression based on a 50 to 75 year cycle, which is coinciding with a 10 year recessionary cycle. I have no doubt that central banks around the world will have limited success in propping up economies. I'm more concerned for the longer term view. Last week extreme volatility took a break compared to the previous week. The next 2 weeks could see a return of volatility to indices and forex markets. Stay safe, fellow traders.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
3
The Secrets to Forex & Protecting Your CarryYou must read the prior articles first. If this was a video game you would probably be trying to skip the conversation boxes at this point. Don't try to speedrun this, you'll die at the boss. --------------------------------------- I'm sure you're tired of all the poetry and want to get straight to the money. Money, after all, is the best form of entertainment. Now, last time we left off with timeframes and carry conditions, key components of the overall risk management message I want to get across. I figured that most retail traders operate on multiday/multiweek positions. Most know next to nothing about carry risk or other unique risks present only for non-intraday traders. If you intend to hold positions across several weeks/months (see pt. 3 for the definition), then this section is the most important of all the articles to come. In addition, I recommend doing additional research, especially if you have a job, are in schooling, or other responsibilities; because understanding this risk (and potential reward) can be very beneficial for those with limited time to spend. Part 1: Country-level Assets All wealthy people own assets. Assets can appreciate. If you 'own' a lot, you are, by default, wealthy. At least, for a brief moment in time. When you trade in forex, you are investing in a type of asset underwritten by a 'country' and paired with a similar underlying. The country creates the supply, and sets minimum standards in demand via tax law. Like businesses with stocks, countries with currencies and bonds can default, and flatline, leading to a breadline utopia. Inversely, they can also grow, and produce something of market value; and then provide returns to everyone that bet something on them. Some countries are flailing about, some countries are stable, and some are growing with seemingly no obstacles in sight. Which one would you want to invest in? Remember the dividend question? Before some median-salary economist gets in a huff, yes it's not always as simple as 'growing country = growing interest rates.' But here's what's important for retail traders: Central banks manage these 'country-level' assets with an evolving toolbox to variable acclaim. I recommend doing your own research into that topic, because it's too far outside the scope of these articles, and there are no unified verdicts on the 'science' behind any of it. The important thing to understand is that when you invest in these country-level assets, some countries demand a fee rate, and some offer a dividend rate. THAT'S IT. Room temperature or higher IQs will get this. Part 2: Free to Play vs Fees to Play You can find these rates by googling: 'central bank interest rates.' Those negative rates are FEES TO PLAY. Zero or higher is FREE TO PLAY. If you hold currency at a broker, these rates are realized and charged or credited to your market position at the daily rollover event. This occurs at the end of the 24hr cycle set to City time. So if you hold positions over 24hr cycles, you will be charged or credited REAL MONEY (no delivery gimmicks). Now, you can't trade currency in isolation in forex, it's always in the form of a pair. In case you haven't figured this out yet, the forex trader is the type of player these articles are designed for. This means, in lazy phrasing, that you are betting on the demand for the money (investor appeal) of one country AGAINST another. If you want to invest in a country as is, you can opt for national or municipal bonds, but note they do have slightly different carry conditions. But to stay on target, what do you think happens when you match a higher rate with a lower rate? The USD is a higher rate than the JPY. The USD is free to play, the JPY charges a fee to play. When you open a position in the market, you are FUNDING one of those currencies (basically against the other). This means you are liable to the interest rate gap. Brokers have an unnecessarily complicated explanation for why they HAVE to pay you money (or take your money) even though price action may not technically move from 23:59 to 00:01. They want to balance the books in a way they are comfortable with, because they have lots of liabilities with major liquidity providers. The net takeaway is that most brokers will generally charge or credit based on the interest rate gap between the currencies in your selected pair. So carry conditions are relevant accross most brokers unless you have a based Islamic account. Note that most brokers have a separate fee (usually .25%), which means if the interest rates are equal then you still get charged at rollover. There are other subtractions brokers will make as well (never in your favor), sometimes cutting deep in the rate gap. Unsurprisingly, they want to pay you as little as possible; in some cases, you can be charged on rollover regardless of gap or position direction. This is why you need to check the 'specification' of the pair in your MT4 to see the swap (or use a calculator provided by your broker.) Some brokers have special rules for emerging currencies with high rates like 8%, other brokers may offer advantages for trading these depending on their business structure. Wed to Thurs rollover is a x3 event , basically to make up for the lack of a rollover event on Sat and Sun night. You're probably wondering why these 'small percents' matter. After all, you're in forex to make highly leveraged internet magic money, not some quarterly dividend payment like your boomer parents. Part 3: Make America Think Again But it's just pennies a day right, who cares? Carry conditions can cost or credit you pennies a day or thousands of dollars a day, depending on the size of your position or the pair in play. On some pairs, you can make 15~ USD a day with just 1 lot in the market. That's over 5k a year USD. That's the equivalent of 540 pips a year, WITH 1 LOT ON 1 PAIR. And all you have to do, is fund a high rate currency bet against a low rate currency on a popular broker. That's it. No technical moonworshipping required. No stalking some coin startups social media for pump and dump schemes. No staying up all night worrying about the West going to war with Iran because you longed the Euro before dinner. It's the opposite of the coin flip, its coin printing. Many retail traders are from developing and emerging countries, it can be an excellent opportunity for men and women of all ages. Its like working at Wall Street and sending the remittances back, all from the ease of your home; without any political, religious, cultural, or economic barriers to get in your way. Sure it's not really that convenient. But the analogy would've been really cool if it worked. So what can happen, for example. At .40 lots for a full position, you would net 1.80 USD a day. Assuming 2 weeks to fill a position at optimal entry points (we'll talk about this later), and a remaining 2.5 month duration (5 fortnites), you net about 130 from carry credit payments during that trade period (1/4 a year), and be able to close with a very profitable or at least at a net-positive price level. Keep in mind, the average yearly takehome is anywhere from 2k-10k in developing countries. 1.8 a day can represent significant supplimentary income, and you only need 100-250 (in USD equivalent value) to support margin at most brokers. You could reinvest those winnings over the course of the first year and start the next year earning 7-8 USD a day. Now some of you might have more cash to waste. With a career in a developed country, maybe you have 25-50k to responsibly throw around in your 20s, no family, STEM job, good rent contract, little student debt, etc. We can upgrade that position size to 4 to 8 lots. 18-37 USD per day. You'll be doubling (before tax) your initial capital every 4 years. Part 4: Fields of Pink But wait, what if you have the opposite position? You fund a low rate currency against a high rate currency, or your trash broker demands fees on both. Your inverted head and shoulders 4h pattern looks (and smells) great, and you're ready to long the EURUSD. You plan to hold this one for a month at least, until it hits some absolute number like 1.200 (because it's the fifth wave in some model a statistician invented 40 years ago), and therefore, must happen. You decided your 'RR' would be 3 to 1, a 150 pip stop loss and a 450 take profit. You're already taking a tendie loan out at KFC in anticipation of a big win down the line. Meanwhile, you're losing 13 dollars a day (or let's say 0.5-2 pips worth of loss), guaranteed. Because you're paying a fee to play, while taking a bet that fails at a near 50% rate (much higher for retail), while throwing away weeks/months of time in anticipation of a result/delivery (capital opportunity cost). Now, if you had ten thousand years of nutritionally deficient ancestors, I can't blame you for this decision-making. But most of us haven't. So here it is, another forex secret: Quite simply, there are pairs the vast majority of you shouldn't be trading, and that includes majors with poor carry conditions (losers both ways with rollover). Pairs like CHFJPY, or any pair that has you longing the JPY or CHF (and usually EUR). Betting against the USD is another insured risk, when looking at majors. It doesn't mean you should never fund a low rate against a high rate, but you need to think in terms of FEES. Is it worth paying a daily fee to make this trade? Now, for the greedy. You'll need to do your own research, to decide if hunting extremely high rates on emerging/exotic currencies is the best course for you and your margin, of if settling with minimal (but not negative) rates on crosses or other majors is good enough for your strategy. My guidance is to look into emerging currencies if you don't have much time to trade daily (someone with a full-time job or family) or you don't intend to sink 1,000s of hours into mastering the intra-day trade (nightmare mode). Part 5: Washington Consensus Trading with carry conditions in mind can even be advantageous compared to other asset classes (like stocks or corporate bonds). It's like trading a high yield junk bond, only you have far less risk from defaults. What's a safer institution? Some 5 month-old, toothbrush-sharing, 10 slide company with 8 employees, or the full might of a nationstate? Sure, a few nationstates have defaulted in modern history. The upside is you usually have lots of heads-up, because default tends to be political in nature. That is, if you're a nation in need of cash, you can always get a loan. It's simply a matter of if the terms are politically acceptable for your faction. This all factors into the 'heads-up' period, alerting you to pull out or reverse your position. The US tends to sanction them beforehand (conveniently) kicking you out of those markets ahead of total economic disaster. The complete opposite occurs with some shady junk bond at 15%, where the company disappears overnight. Companies fail for the smallest things, they fail all the time, and the world goes on. A country failing is always geopolitical in nature and market rules about fair play are thrown out the window. This is an intrinsic advantage to forex and global macro tradables in general. I'll talk more about the future risk of national defaults and the utility and primacy of forex as an asset class in the final article. So beyond the obvious consideration, which is to fund a high rate currency against a low rate; what pairs should you trade and how else could you mind carry conditions while holding a long term position? Should you stick to emerging (exotic) currencies against safe-haven currencies? IE, you only short the EURMXN or fund against the CHF? And what indicators/models (from article pt.2) should you use to achieve the safest average price entry? Part 6: Not All Edges are Sharpe Forex is highly volatile, so you may have an advantage in the carry conditions, but suffer a net loss from a poor initial position when you decide to close. A currency with a negative rate could move against you, bigly. Remember, the future holds unlimited risk. But the distinction here (as mentioned in the prior article), is the resilient value in understanding that contracts can have insured risk outcomes. Cost/benefits that are legally settled (from the past) at the point of opening position and at the rollover event, even if brokers tinker with the point payouts, the 'deal' is still there in some form. Here's a poorly kept institutional secret, greed often drives the price in the direction of the higher interest rate currency in a pair over multi-month periods, so this doesn't really matter. Wealthy investors are greedy for higher payouts from emerging countries: where labor is cheaper, new factories spring up all the time, and real estate can be opportune. Part 7: Bat Soup vs the Fortune 500 Old school risk theory in markets argues that high volatility = high risk, but in recent years it has evolved beyond such mathematical explanations, especially as consecutive market challenges broke paradigms. Boomers are slow learners, but they adapt quickly when they start losing money. The subprime crisis cost them big time. And it's true today for our sniffle pandemic. It's simple: On high timeframes across longer-term positions, macroeconomics and geopolitics reign supreme. This isn't just a forex rule. This has been true since the dawn of markets in human society, it is true today, and it will be true in the end. Regulation and interest rates are variables that follow those leaders (not precede). That is, their behavior is shaped by the first two; macro and geopolitics. Think about COVID-19. Look what a few bats and one strange wet market did this world. Macroeconomics and geopolitics produce basic patterns in the human brain that propagate through our societies as two different frequencies: the short wavelength called fear or the long wavelength called security (interpreted in complex ways by players in markets). These are filtered by timezones, languages, civilizational and organizational biases, technology, individual upbringings, and the incumbency of delusion and greed. Nanoseconds, or years later, this all gets represented as a market outcome on a chart. Amazing that people spend so much time analyzing the chaotic patterns of some shit on a floor instead of what was on the menu last night, when they try to understand what went wrong. So if you can understand markets during these strong periods of psychological stress, and during soft periods of algorithm auctioning and market making (call it ranging), then you can sail all the seas and survive all the storms. This is where concepts like seasonality, ATR, regressions, psychological origination, hedging, news trading, major moving averages, and others come into play. In the coming weeks, I'll start to break down the major components of those, and where the center of price gravity and extremes are for these higher timeframe, longer-term positions. So you can find the optimal entry opportunities for longer-term trades, while also taking advantage or hedging against carry conditions. It's time to start charting the course.
Education
by CountofCoins
XOP: Oil & Gas Fund Clings to SupportThe stock market's been undeniably strong, but energy has been the weakest link. Of the 11 major sectors, energy remains at or near the bottom of the rankings. (It's also the only one under its 200-day SMA) The S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF is a heavily traded name within the broader energy space. It averages almost 2x more options on a daily basis than the better known XLE: 122,000 contracts in the last month vs 76,000 for XLE , according to TradeStation data. XOP's MACD has been declining since early in the year and it's now trying to hold the $23 level where it peaked in early November. This sets up the potential for a break to the downside and a retest of the December lows around $20. The energy market has struggled with a supply glut. Just this week both the EIA and the IEA had bearish news. The EIA, part of the U.S. government, said domestic oil production passed 13 million barrels for the first time ever. Weekly data also showed big inventories of unused refined products. The IEA, a global organization, separately predicted non-OPEC supply will keep swelling. Throw in a potential of calmer tensions in the Middle East, and the risk/reward may favor weakness in this corner of the market.
AMEX:XOPShort
by TradeStation
ORBEX: US Air Strike Sends Oil and Gold UP!A US airstrike at the Bagdad airport killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani’s. Not only this is going to increase geopolitical instability in the region but it also questions the legality of the President's decision as he acted without Congressional approval! US-Iran relations are taking a sour turn early in the year following an “extremely dangerous” attack that could set off a war. See how oil and gold have been affected so far and how they are likely to perform in the short-term. Timestamps WTI 3H 01:50 GOLD 3H 04:15 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex
NZDCAD Long-Term Buy FrameworkThis is a bullish setup framework for a lesser traded pair. Please read the 'guidance' below for full value. There tends to be a lot of volatility for this pair in Nov & Dec. Based on VaR analysis, there is a decent probability of a 250+ pip bullish move over that period. And, CAD macro data has been very strong for a bit too long, so any miss in upcoming data will see a surprise trend as commercials will try to cash in against speculators. Essentially, CAD has been 'wanting to weaken' since July, but data upside surprise keeps it on life support. But fair warning: do keep in mind that Options, Futures, and COT data all suggest NZD weakness and CAD strength, so I wouldn't expect any NZDCAD bullish moves to last into next year (without changes in that data at least). I attached rough estimates for levels that will be hit at some point in the next month or so. Generally, it is unwise to forecast technical setups for this kind of horizon. There are too many geopolitical and fundamental variables to interfere with at this kind of scale, but because both currencies are attached to commodities, global trade issues, and the Chinese economy to some degree, they are not as vulnerable as something like the USDJPY or XAUUSD, for instance, which have clear 'risk on vs risk off' parameters. Small lots with large SLs and low account risk can make these fun experiments from time to time.
Long
by CountofCoins
GOLD Medium-Term LongLast time we ran gold, it went pretty well. Got bored halfway through though. This time should be a bit more exciting. Metals complex is still bullish, seasonality looks good. MENA geopolitics is still hot and KJU is getting mad again cause Trump isn't giving him enough attention. (& whats Iran been up to lately?) Bad data and other warning signs from China econ (trade war hits them hard during the US Christmas consumer utopia, thus the deal demand for tariff reduction) and other emerging market problems (Argentina?). Even if phase 1 deal happens, its not gonna be that great. Economic warfare is here to stay. Gold should have an upside bias here, decent value (plus it's shiny and looks cool). First TP is almost a lock (like 70% hit). Lay off the TA you goobers and make some money for once.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by CountofCoins
NZDUSD Medium-Term SellChaos is cheap but plans are priceless. This is a wild month for fundamental and geopolitical events. No setups are safe this month, mine included. But that doesn't mean you opt-out of the market. As with my prior setups, exhaustion occurs during a surprise data miss or political event. You have to pay attention to real-time news if you want to win at this game in the long-run. Event Risk: Very High Sequence Risk: Low ATR: Good My published setups have made 100s of pips in the last few weeks, with an over 80% hit rate. I publish 3-4 charts a week and will continue doing so for the next 7 months at least. Follow me, and peer into the profitable and retail undervalued world of intra-day and intra-week trading. You can use my medium-term opportunities and fit them into your long-term trading setups/positions to get comfortable. (The PoC sinewave represents a safe return point for price action)
Short
by CountofCoins
DXY, SPX: Hang on Fed & GeopoliticsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse DXY and SXP! Equities look bullish and the US index bearish, from a technical perspective. On the (geo)-political front their prices are and could remain being affected by: - A somewhat dovish?! Fed - BoE and Brexit (BoJo visits EU today for talks!) - SA attack and expectations on reduced oil production - Weakening Chinese data - US-Sino tradewar optimism On the other hand, don't forget that policy-pessimism is going to matter most?! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
US and China make back room deal on Hong Kong?Just want to update on the USDHKD peg idea I spoke about awhile back. A bit controversial I know, but I gave reasons on why this is likely to happen. Hong Kong does not have the US Dollars to maintain the peg. The PLA marching into Honk Kong may be what breaks the peg. Looking at the chart, you can see where the buyers are stepping in. We are seeing buyers at the 7.83500 zone indicated by the long wicks. Buyers are still there. Just this analysis indicates that perhaps we will be seeing this break of the Peg. I am hearing from sources that there has been a deal between the US and China behind the scenes. That the CCP will allow President Trump to sell the trade war as a minor victory for the US...meanwhile the Americans will give the CCP a carte blanche when it comes to what they do in Hong Kong. If they decide to send in the army, the US will look away. This is what I am hearing. The 4 hour chart can also give us a short signal if we do break below the mentioned zone. We have had a nice uptrend, and now a range displaying 2/3 market structures. On a side note, I just watched the documentary "Banksters" on Amazon Prime which is about HSBC , Hong Kong and China. It really explains what is REALLY going on in Hong Kong currently. There was a twitter rumour that was substantiated by many solid minds including Kyle Bass, about the PBoC needing to borrow money from HSBC to maintain the Yuan where it is at. The HSBC President was fired and other high up executives were fired. Rumours have it that the CCP will look to control HSBC ...the documentary gives evidence about this already happening in 2017.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
1
The Trap EP2, The first is The lastDisclaimer : As a chartist I don't have any intention to manipulate the prices, all our work is completely based on our research and analysis, we request you to please read the complete report before making any type of comments. the only thing that matters for a trader is to make profit and protect his capital. Markets does not understand bullish or bearish situations, they are just a reflection of human emotions, and my work is to capture the future direction without a crystal ball, so i could be wrong, so it's better that you should invest on your own risk. Thankyou. Hell-looo... guys welcome to a brand new update of Bitcoin The Trap Ep2 the first is the last, connecting dots with Gold, Stocks and Geopolitics. Now before getting in to this I really need to thank all of you for huge support on my first update of The Trap, and The Same Old Pattern series, really i’ve got so much support from all of you even after things don’t work out in my previous update. In just a fraction of time this community has grown like Bitcoin’s prices in the past few weeks;) Plus you all guys are unique with a very productive view towards my chart analysis, so cheers to all of you. Meanwhile my way of writing isn't satirical at all, but I'll keep adding more spices with boring trading lessons, so you guys won’t sleep while reading this report… Gosh am really missing funny stickers here, hey TV are you listening?... So without wasting your time, let’s jump into this… First of all if you’re not familiar with my “The Trap” series or looking first time my report, than I'll recommend you to first check out my previous update on Bitcoin here it is… And do also check my “Same Old Pattern” series, link below or checkout my profile Now lots of you think that I've been bearish on Bitcoin, which is not completely correct, i've also mentioned the bullish scenario as well, although there was a high probability for the bearish move at that time, but things changed really fast. If you’ll focus on some major levels i've mentioned like 10800, 11200 and 11800, so you'll clearly find that, how strongly bears have protected this levels, have a look at this chart below... I’ve said that above 10800 bears will start to loose control and above 11800 bulls will totally crush bears, so if you’ve followed this advice and made profits by getting long from 11200 than congratulations to you, am not taking any type of credits for that. Now another important point I've discussed is that above 11800 chance for a new high will definitely increases, and this thing looks damn bullish in daily or hourly chart, all the indicators are turned out to be bullish right now. So here’s what you all are waiting for the bullish scenario… ABC flat corrective formation has ended perfectly and now a new wave is in progress and looks like we've already completed the 3rd wave and next corrective wave 4 could gain support from 11200, amazing… how perfect it is, isn’t it? Have a look at this another chart, 21EMA is damn bullish, 50MA has crossed 200MA in 4h chart golden cross indicator, volume is rising, RSI is getting bullish momentum, what else you want from your life man?... everything is bullish, even a noob can easily predict the price direction, book your lambo, before it gets out of stock;) Alright now am shifting here from technicals to fundamentals, to deeply understand this growth. We need to expand our vision from here and look at the geopolitics and how it's directly affecting Bitcoin. We all know that there’s an ongoing trade war between the US and China, and on Aug1 US President Trump has announced to impose 10% extra tariff on 300 billion of chinese goods which directly affect the Chinese manufacturing Industry. In reaction to this PBOC (Public Bank of China) allowed Chinese Yuan to fall below 0.143$ which is the lowest level since 2009, this step will allow chinese goods to be cheaper and more competitive and also cuts the extra taxes. Against this step of China, president Trump accused China as a currency manipulator on twitter. Now I won't go in depth to waste your time you can google everything you want to know. Things we need to consider here is that when Chinese Yuan started to drop, lots of chinese investors start to move their funds in safe assets like gold, silver and Bitcoin which caused a massive rally in commodities and huge crashes in stock markets. Now Chinese Yuan could be a very good indicator for Bitcoin and Gold price predictions. Coz when people will start to move from Yuan to Bitcoin or Gold, they’ll pump, and when people will start to move again from Bitcoin or Gold to Yuan, they'll dump, it's just that simple… Have a look at Yuan chart… By the technicals looks like Yuan is getting strength for a short rally in mid term, which suggests for a correction in Gold and Bitcoin, so maybe we could see an small correction upto 11k or maybe 10k level, the better we should be prepared for that. Meanwhile Gold is looking stronger than Bitcoin but due for a small wave 4 correction, which could lead the prices upto 1460s level. But the allover trend for gold looks damn bullish and in coming days we could even see +1600 zone, new ATH since 2013, so cheers for Gold holders…:) However this whole currency drama had a very negative impact on major markets like DOW, S&P500 or Nasdaq. Have a look at the chart of major markets, i think i don’t need to say so much on this, all the markets have achieved their ATH and lots of analysts are predicting for the next major recession in 2019-20. An important question arises here, that is this recession is good for Bitcoin? And there’s no fixed answer for that. Coz Bitcoin has not seen any major recession yet. Lots of people are creating hype over this that during the major recession Bitcoin and Gold will keep rising, and what they argue here is that Bitcoin is anti fiat currency, which is limited like gold. So during the recession when fiat will fail, gold and Bitcoin will take its place. Which is definitely not the complete truth. Here I want to clear this thing that am also a bitcoin supporter and I do have faith in blockchain, but my eyes are open and I can see what’s happening. There’s an image created against fiat and inflation and painted this with all the negativity and showed you that everything is scam, conspirated and evil, which is definitely only one side of the coin. Inflated currencies are actually a good thing for capitalism which encourages people to invest in economy and generates value. If you’ll lock 1kg of gold bar for 10 years, it won’t grow upto 2kg, obviously it's value will grow with time, but that gold has not generated any value which is contributed in economy, but if you’ll invest 1kg gold worth of money in economy like in S&P500 than you’re contributing in economy to generate value, and you’ll definitely get some really good returns over that. But just like any other system fiat also has its own limitations and flaws which are misused by banks and this can be solved with blockchain. Alright now the question which is striking your head is, “alright husain but how the hell all this will affect Bitcoin???”, so the fact that Bitcoin will moon in the next recession has not any strong base, just opposite to this if you'll look at the correlation between stock markets and Bitcoin both have performed quite similar movements in the past. Have a look at this charts... Notice that prices of Bitcoin has almost equal reaction with Nasdaq and the reason is very simple, everyone has invested in Bitcoin to earn more dollars. That’s the real joke, we’ve invested in anti fiat currency to earn more fiat currency and labelling that fiat as scam, evil and conspirated. You know why, coz US Dollar is the legal agreement issued by FED, backed by Economy and protected by your elected government which generates more trust in it, and here I also want to add this that Trump Administration will do what’s best in favour of US Dollar and economy, so the drop in Yuan won’t last longer. Meanwhile I don't deny the possibility for the next recession but most likely Bitcoin will also drop with stock markets, coz investors will short everything they get, and then they'll don't care about the tech, all they want is just exit from everything at any cost and secure what they already have. Now turn view and look what’s happening, today the whole crypto industry is losing its value, coz it has stand for decentralisation and now the whole industry is getting centralised to only Bitcoin. Ask yourself what Bitcoin stands for, its decentralisation and now what's happening? We're moving towards the centralised power, one authority is controlling all the power and majority is supporting this and those who oppose or criticise this, majority attacks on them. No one cares what is the potential of blockchain everyone just wants to push the prices of Bitcoin higher and higher and claims to fly towards the moon, but just look where we are right now we're already on the moon, Bitcoin has surged from 3200 to 14000 without any major correction whereas other altcoins have not recorded this intense growth, which clearly shows that people are not really interested in tech, they’re all greedy and just want to make quick money from Bitcoin. Look how dominance of Bitcoin has just kept rising and passed 2017s ath, when we’ve reached the 20k level, if it goes above 80% than altcoin market will be completely dead, there’ll be no sense to invest in technology, this will be the only place for speculators and gamblers. This is the eye opening moment to see what's actually happening, everything is bullish without any solid fundamentals, this complete hype is hollow from inside. If whole crypto market is mooning than why only bitcoins has got all the benefits? Market cap of altcoins is still sinking and most likely this will continue to drop in the coming days. Whereas if you’ll look at top Altcoin Ethereum, it has so respectfully followed the Same Old Pattern theory, and will keep it continue in coming days. Moving towards the conclusion what I actually mean here is that most likely Bitcoin has topped out and soon we can see a massive drop, yeah we could possibly climb upto 13ks or 14ks level in coming days, coz trend is very strong, but we are in a Bubble right now, which could pop out soon. Have a look at this chart, this is my custom indicator am working right now, which indicates various zones for prices. If you’ll look at Dec 2017s price movement we were moving in red zone bubble territory and in Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 we were moving in green zone, which is extreme undervalued zone and now we’re again in the red zone which is Bubble territory. Another view towards this is that this rally could be an X wave which goes upto fib618 level of a complete corrective ABC formation, which could indicate that we’re moving towards double3 corrective formation, where first wave is a flat ABC and second one is Zigzag ABC, in that situation new lows upto 8k are possible, the better we should be prepared for both situations . Ok guys That’s all for now, if you’ve enjoyed reading this report than do like and follow us to appreciate our hard work, it took a lot of time and effort to bring this, and don’t forget to comment and share your opinion with us, thankyou:)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Husain_Arkghazi
78
SPX 500 Index, Daily Chart Analysis July 25Technical Analysis and Outlook The S&P500 index closed higher and by doing so, obsoleted the relatively weak Key Res 3016 . The higher-range closure sets the stage for a steady to higher advancement towards the Inner Index Rally 3040 , and ultimately to the Outer Index Rally 3125 (The sixth phase). Currently, there are no significant resistance levels: the downside there is established Mean Sup 2976 , and distance Key Sup marked at 2914 .
TVC:SPX
by TradingSig
2
Why the US Dollar will be going higher! Alert!So we are approaching the 31st of July, a day the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates. The market has already priced in a 25 basis point cut. In this post I want to discuss why the US Dollar will remain buoyed, and likely break out higher, even though the Fed cuts rates. Also why a stronger dollar exacerbates all the problems in the world. If you follow my blog ( unchartedfx.blog) and/or social media ( www.instagram.com) I regularly post stories regarding macroeconomics and geopolitics. I believe we are heading towards not only an economic crisis (central banks running out of tools, new mandate is to keep assets propped, and then this mandate will turn into the BUYER of last resort), but also a social and political crisis. More books will be written about the next few years than any other time in human history. So why will the US Dollar go higher? And when I mean higher, the break above 98 validates this idea. A break below the 94-95 zone would make me reconsider my theory. 1)Reserve Currency and Petro Dollar. It is more about the reserve currency rather than the Petro Dollar, but we should speak about the geopolitical possibilities. When things in the world start to go crazy, people will run into the US Dollar. This doesn’t mean Gold will fall…it is possible to see BOTH Gold and the US Dollar rise and I argue we will see this. Remember, Gold goes up when confidence is running out in government, banks and policies. It is a confidence crisis asset. With the Fed now beginning a rate cut cycle, it is likely we may go back to QE…which was supposed to be a one time, desperate policy, but many are realizing that this will now be the norm. However, many still see Gold as this useless, non yielding asset. These people will naturally run into the US Dollar. America also has the exorbitant privilege for being the reserve currency. Meaning there is always an artificial demand for US Dollars, and the Fed can keep printing as many dollars as they want without caring about debts and deficits…unless Dollar demand takes a hit or the US loses reserve status. The Fed is the central bank of central banks and can bail out others (Canada during 2008 etc). This is where the Petro dollar comes into play. Currently Iran is the threat because the Iranians take any currency besides the US Dollar for their oil. Countries like Turkey and India love this because their currency priced in US Dollars has gotten decimated. European nations, Japan and South Korea have followed suit, but have reluctantly dropped due to US demands. Turkey and India really cannot afford too. Russia and China are trying to attack this Dollar demand, and Iran is the key for them. Venezuela is also, but her oil production needs to come back to par, and believe me, Maduro will remain President backed by the Russians and the Chinese solely because he will announce Venezuela will NOT take US Dollars for their oil. This is part of Russia and China’s plan. In a way, this is why war with Iran is more than likely to happen. It is the way the Americans will protect their US Dollar demand and the role as reserve currency. They will force all nations to use the Dollar for energy. In this way, the US army and other western armies are the armed branch of the Federal Reserve. 2)The US looks better than other western nations. This is thanks to tax cuts implemented by President Trump…and other western nations are being burdened by large tax rates as governments need to tax more in order to spend more. Partly why they want inflation. More taxes in terms of more money through property tax and sales tax etc. All other western nations will also be cutting interest rates. Australia has already cut twice this year, taking them down to 1.00%. Other nations will also follow along. In this environment, what would you rather hold? Would you still want to hold the Euro or the Canadian Dollar? I don’t think so. If you factor in that all western nations will be cutting rates, the US still looks the best. Martin Armstrong calls this the “prettiest sister out of the three ugly sisters” situation. That the US Dollar is the prettiest sister out of the three ugly sisters (other western currencies). 3) US Treasury Demand Now this is the most important reason in my opinion. For fixed income investors, US treasuries still provide the best safe yield for bonds. Fixed Income products are huge for pension funds. In fact US Social Security is 100% composed of government bonds! There is about 12 Trillion Dollars worth of negative yielding debt in the world right now! Put yourself in the shoes of a German fixed income manager. Would you buy European or German debt yielding very low, even zero to negative! Or would you rather buy US Treasuries yielding a decent amount compared to other western counterparts? I have argued in the past that the rise in the US Dollar is because of European money coming over (having to buy the US Dollar in order to purchase US Treasuries or even US stocks). This will continue to increase and it will not just be European fixed income managers doing this. In fact, US Treasuries is the best way for foreign funds to obtain US Dollars. Very quickly, this is why the Fed MUST cut rates next week, and will likely cut many more times ahead. 1) The bond market. The short end of the yield curve has to be brought down, and the Fed Funds rate yields more than the ten year! Meaning banks take a negative carry. 2) Real economy is not actually improving, and we are either already in a recession (remember it is a lagging indicator...and PMI coming negative), or we are heading towards a recession. The Fed wants to act quickly. 3) To help service US government debt as well as the consumers. So much bad debt out there, and the consumer needs to borrow more to live. 4) The Fed has to relieve the pressure mostly from emerging markets. EM dollar denominated debt gets more expensive as the dollar gets stronger, which leads to more problems, and also plays a factor for those nations to buy oil from Iran bypassing the US Dollar. 5) Also Jerome Powell and the Fed have talked themselves into a corner. Stock markets only care about cheap money. This is why they are up. When rates go down, the stock market will be the only place to go for yield. The Fed now needs to deliver...a 25 basis point cut may not be enough. So the Fed will be cutting but rate cuts will not prevent the Dollar from rising. This means the Fed may have to "kill" the dollar to save the world. We are likely to see some new type of Bretton-Woods type conference to sort this all out. By the way: If I was a Russian or Chinese strategist, I would be telling dark pools and offshore funds to buy the dollar. Keep it propped up even with bad data and rate cuts. This way more nations will be pressured to drop the Dollar to buy Iranian Oil (ally of Russia and China and key to their geopolitical ambitions). Even Saudi Arabia and other gulf states may drop the dollar just to ensure they do not lose their market share (and the Russians would guarantee the Saudi's military protection). Not to mention the pressure it would put on the Fed and America. How can the Russians and Chinese do this because the dollar going up means the Ruble and Yuan would be going down you ask? Gold. Gold priced in Rubles and Yuan will go up and both Russia and China own large reserves and continue to buy more. This is how Russia survived US sanctions. Even though the Ruble got decimated, Gold priced in Rubles went up allowing the Russian Central Bank to operate with not much damage. Gold is also a way for these Eastern nations to bypass the Dollar. Gold will be used to settle payments. You sell Oil to China, but don't want to hold Yuan reserves? China converts the Yuan to Gold, you take the Gold, then convert it back to your currency. No US Dollar involved.
TVC:DXYLong
by Uncharted-FX
4
EURUSD - Stay Cautious, Big moves ahead!Okay! So as predicted it has been a pretty wild week however the market seems to have respected the uptrend support indicating that investors are still leaning to the conclusion that US interest rates will be cut. With a new week beginning my recommendation is to again REMAIN CAUTIOUS as more data will be released this week and we will likely see a break of either the lower support trend line or the 1.1284 resistance level. If you absolutely MUST trade this week I would advise waiting for a close above or below these levels with volume, be careful of false breaks and keep your stops tight! Put simply: If economic data indicates the US economy is doing well, the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut interest rates and this particular market is likely to selloff. Conversely if data indicates poor economic performance, an interest rate increase becomes more likely and we will see a rally. See my previous idea below:
by EquityShuffle
TRUMP SAYS NO TO BITCOIN!Mr Trump has strongly disapproved of Bitcoin. The markets couldn't care less. People are holding on to their Bitcoin in a zone of consolidation on the daily time frame. The consolidation pattern is safe down to around 9500. Bitcoin reached 10 times the recent high price of gold at one stage. I look at possibilities positive and negative for the future. For a comparison of Gold v Bitcoin see here . Declarations & Disclaimers: I have not engaged in contentious political discourse. I have simply reported the whole truth of Mr Trump's opinions. I have shown that the zone of consolidation disregards Mr Trumps views. Trump's opinions are relevant to traders as his words have potential to influence markets of various kinds. No liabilities accepted for your losses if you trade bitcoin based on anything said or perceived to be implied by this post.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Captain_Walker
5
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis June 21Technical Analysis and Outlook It seems like we have a currency war. Euro Dollar sank after dovish Super Mario - Draghi comment and surged after dovish Fed chair Powell remarks. The short-term surge of the Euro Dollar trend sentiment remains semi-bullish and current rebound is producing push into Outer Currency Rally $1.1376 . The relatively weak Mean Res $1.3333 will be a showdown of this fake push towards higher prices, with aged Key Res $1.1410 looming above. On the downside, there is a Mean Res $1.1193 a distance away, while the significant Key Res $1.1330 is sitting below.
by TradingSig
Possible Double Bottom Forming in USOILDespite ongoing concerns about oversupply and threats to demand, crude has some upward catalysts after a long bear run. Global contracts are up in the month of June, according to a report yesterday, and China's oil appetite is increasing. Also, Iran attacked a couple oil tankers and the US government appears determined to go to war in order to bolster the president's re-election prospects. These factors *could* catalyze an upward breakout, depending how the geopolitical situation shakes out. I suspect the $54.40-54.80 resistance level will act as a magnet in coming weeks, though whether we actually push through that level depends on the news. Look for upward triangle breakout and breach of $52.96 resistance as signs that we'll head north to test the $54.40-54.80 resistance zone.
TVC:USOILLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Second TP @1,320 for GOLD Good Morning, Over a week ago, I posted a long position on Gold @,1275, showing a nine month trend and decided to take the risk. Half positions were to be closed @1,300 which occurred on Friday, May 31st 2019. Here is an update on where to close the remaining positions. In this chart, the Fib. retracement of 78.60% and the wave movement of the flag pole both indicate a target @ 1,320 and I shall be satisfied with all my profits. Never be greedy!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Nixxflixx