DXY / 4HR / CYPHER + DOUBLE TOP + GDP?Hello traders, our daily trading video was recently
released on our YouTube channel.
We have the USD GDP figures coming out tonight.
Are we looking for a bearish move to continue the
completed bearish cypher pattern to targets and
double top in play?
Or are we more than likely to see the continue bullish
rising and strength of the dollar.
Let me know your thoughts below based on the tech
and fundamentals that are presented to us.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
GDP
"Tips for buying" _Russian Financial MarketStrengths:
-Enhancement The ruble by 18% from 2014 lows against the euro and dollario .
-Stock exchange ( MICEX ) since the beginning of 2015 to + 16 %
-Large Margin recovery for the ruble to reach the pre-crisis levels of June 2014 .
-Rate Interbank Repo 14% cut in view of the revision of reducing inflation (target 2017-4 % )
- Bond 10y 12%
- Bond corporate high
-a Ratio of debt / GDP ratio to a minimum ( 13 vs 132 Italy )
- Unemployment the US levels (about 5.8)
Points of weakness:
GDP in 2015 negative , reflects the impact of the devaluation of the ruble , the sanctions and the collapse of commodity prices .
Financial markets anticipate more than economic
USA BUBBLE (s&p futures) VS USA NO BUBBLE (treasury)USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112%
USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4%
data up to 10/2014
THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
ITA40 MAX 2014 vs 2015_+2.50% 283 daysWhile all equity markets ( DAX - SP - and today FTSE 100) are in the highest level of ever index Italian is just 2.50% up from high 2014 with a devaluation of eurusd of 20% ... also financial bubbles reflect some economic fundamentals..the italian economic is stuck at 0 % of GDP , and shows no signs of recovery...MIB index on which to speculate , and sooner or later ( QE effect) short heavily
DAX potential short scenario on Fundamentals and TechnicalsJust days before Germany's much anticipated third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data is released, business leaders and policy makers warn that euro zone's largest economy has lost its competitiveness and is on the brink of recession.
German Stock Index DAX is grinding high for the last 3-4 weeks after a sharp down move. It is building nice consolidation and I think resolution of this chanel will give us another directional move. My bias is to the downsideas price is below 200 EMA for a long time and failed to hold above during recent sessions. Data on Friday could be a good catalyst.
Break down and close below 9,200 support will trigger my short entry with stops above 1/2 of this range at 9,300 then we have 9,400 as important mark. My first target is 8,900.
consolidated GBP = easy money (till tuesday)+info about ScotlandWe've arrived at heavy demand area. Pair should reman consolidated until we encounter a solid reason to break through this level or bounce up. Seems like situation will be simillar to the one when we were at this price level previuosly /yellow square @ Feb 2014/, yet the outcome might be opposite. I'd suggest playing it safe&technical now = from support to resistance and from resistance to support. Tuesday will be the day when some bigger move might appear.
This red, long vertical line is placed here to show the date of Scotland's independece referendum. Outcome of this referendum might be heavily injuring for UK. Wondering now wherther or not Scotland's independece is already priced in and what will happen if result shows that they will actually stay with UK.
What the price suggests is that, their independecte is mostly priced in so the impulse could be long for both the YES or NO as a result of the voting. Why? Because YES would only add-up more reasons to sell and NO would be a signal that we've pushed it too low in advance, and would mean that UK economy is safe for now causing some (or most) of all these short positions to take profit and wait till situation clears out.
What will actually happen to UK if the result is YES?
Less income from taxes, less people to contribute to GDP and overall economic growth, less people to take credit from UK's banks and first attempts to build independent monetary circulation system that doesn't support UK (or at least attempts to). There obviously are more outcomes of this but i'm only trying to imagine the scale of it and wondering if there could be any positive outcomes of independent Scotland for UK.
Selling pressure is still intact. - Euro area pick up has stalled on the second quarter of this year as three of its biggest economies failed to grow.
Consumer prices still fail to grow to meet the ECB's target rate, Ukraine is still at risk of increasing political unrest due to the Crimea crisis. Economic sanctions imposed by European countries on Russia and blocked trade agreements between Russia and the Euro area will only make the situation worse and might cause the economy to stagnate further in the third quarter of the year. Mario Draghi has signalled a risk from what the Euro economy is currently facing. On the other hand, the Spanish and Portuguese economies GDP have picked up in the second quarter. Euro stocks climbed today after data showed that the Euro area economy stalled in the second quarter amid speculation that the ECB will further up stimulus. Such action will only depreciate the Euro further. The Euro is currently retracing and should continue to move downward with the overall down trend. If the Euro closed above the 100 DMA then it should find the next resistance at the 0.236 fib level. Notice that there is a hammer candle stick above the blue arrow confirmed with a higher close, this hammer indicates a short term retracement.
Trade (SHORT)
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) close to bottom of upward channelGoodrich Petroleum close to bottom resistance of the upward channel. I propose long entry at about 14.85. First stop is quite aggressive at 12.50 (small position) and 2nd stop less so at 11.54 (bulk of trade).
History shows that ETA to 2nd profit target is about 100days from entry date.
GBP/USD is Cable ready for resumption ?GBP/USD felt to really important level if there's an chance that it will conitnue the uptrend that we might be just getting to the entry point at the moment. There's an confluence of green marked Demand zone, 50% Fibo retracement of last swing up (1,669-1,719), daily trend line and the previous smaller leg up low at 1,685 level (red circle). Todays down move was mostly EUR/GBP strenght driven and that's not an rarity that EUR/GBP finds some demand at the end of a month with Bundes Bank selling pounds for Euro which is due to Great Britian paying it's European Union charges in Pounds. There's also an bullish divergence present on 4 Hour chart which might be another signal to go long there, the Risk:Reward ratio (around 7,5) would be great as if we get an bounce here I'd aim for another high close to 1,73 level which is an monthly time frame important Fibo level (50% retracement of down move from 2,12 to 1,35). Stop loss for long entry would be placed under the last dip towards 1,69 level (blue elipse)
Things to keep in mind~
There's Q2 GDP reading in USA tomorrow which should be around 3% q/q (which will mean that they moved nowhere in last 6 months)
There's FOMC meeting tomorrow with another tapper in "measured steps" as granny said 100 times and there's nothing much to expect from FOMC members then that. I can't find any justification to look for any hints of rate hike at tomorrows press conference after the meeting so Dolar bulls might get a little slap after that event.
On the other hand there's IMF report telling us that Pound is overvalued and that might hurt British economy and we've got NFP numbers in USA this Friday which tend to be really good last months. The thing with NFP numbers and unemployment rate is that they are not "soo" important anymore after FED stated that they will look for inflation data mostly and all other data before deciding to hike rates.
GBPUSD GDP 27th @ 830GMT1D Chart: My first prediction of GDP news is that it will hit down to 1.669 and back up to 1.680. If we do see the market hit 1.680 we could definitely expect a bounce down in the market. It should not go lower than 1.5306 - 1.5261. After this move down it should go up to 1.5377 - 1.5404 area - near this time though we will be nearing mid-next week.
USDNOK - Post GDP ReleaseNorway's GDP readings have come in better than expected. Y/Y @ 3.9% and Q/Q @ 0.3% up from 1.1% and -0.2% respectively and both beating estimates.
On H4 charts, the retracement to 5.96074 looks like a prime target to short from targeting 5.83130 (for now).
Alternatively, wait for the resistance to be confirmed at 5.96 and sell at the most recent lows in the run up.